Tweet
-
Re: 1-12-09
Larry Ness
Indiana Pacers @ Utah Jazz
PICK: Utah Jazz
The Jazz are starting to get used to the idea of playing without All-Star forward Carlos Boozer (20.5-11.7) and they had better. The latest word is that Boozer will be out for at least four more weeks with a lower quad and knee problem. The Jazz are 14-11 without Boozer (22-15 overall) after beating the Pistons in Salt Lake City Saturday night (99-82). Okur (17.2-8.4) is having one of his best seasons and Paul Millsap has been just terrific. The third-year player from La Tech had his run of 19 consecutive double-doubles snapped on Saturday (he played only 22 minutes with nine points and seven rebounds) but is averaging 15.3 PPG and 9.5 RPG on the year. The Pacers lost 120-117 last night in Oakland to Golden State and are only 6-15 SU (11-10 ATS) on the road. However, there's more than a little good news coming out of Indiana. Granger (26.4-5.1-3.4) has developed into one of the NBA's best small forwards plus Mike Dunleavy, coming off a career-year (19.1-5.2-3.5), is finally getting back on the court (knee). He played for the first time this season on Jan 7 and in his three games back, has averaged 15.3-3.3-3.3. The bad news for the Pacers is that this is the team's final game of a five-game, eight-day road trip and will be the first time Dunleavy would have to play on back-to-back nights (we'll see?). The Jazz are 15-4 SU (12-7 ATS) at home and even without Boozer, are tough to beat here in Salt Lake City. The Jazz are completing a four-game homestand with this game (3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS) and have shot 51.3 percent while averaging 111.3 PPG in their first three games. That doesn't bode well for an Indiana team which allows 106.7 PPG on the season (ranking 29th of 30 teams), including a rather pathetic 121.5 PPG over the first four games of this current trip. Lay the points. -
Re: 1-12-09
Dr Bob
2 Star Selection
Oklahoma City (+6 ½) over NEW JERSEY
12-Jan-09 04:35 PM Pacific Time
Oklahoma City is 16-5 ATS since rookie star Russell Westbrook took over as the starting pointguard on November 29th and my ratings favor the Nets by just 4 ½ points with Yi Jianlian out for the Nets. Yi has played very well on both sides of the floor for the Nets this season, but the Nets will miss his defense most while he sits out with a broken finger. New Jersey ha allowed 1.08 points per possession when Yi is on the floor (not very good) and an even worse 1.12 ppp when Yi is on the bench. Overall, the Nets have out-scored their opponents by 1.6 points per 48 minutes with Yi on the floor and have been out-scored by 6.0 points per 48 minutes when Yi is not on the court. A lot of that difference is due to the fact that Yi plays a lot of his minutes with other Nets’ stars Vince Carter and Devin Harris, but after adjusting for that I calculate Yi’s value at 2.0 points per game, which makes the Nets 5.0 points worse than an average team without him (and with Harris back in the lineup). Oklahoma City has been 5.1 points worse than an average team in 21 games with Westbrook starting and home court advantage is 3.0 points in the NBA when both teams are rested – so I would favor New Jersey by just 3.1 points in this game using only the 21 games for the Thunder with Westbrook starting. Westbrook played a lot of minutes when he wasn’t starting, so the part of the difference between Oklahoma City’s rating with and without Westbrook starting is due to random variance. But, even with that being the case I still calculate a fair line of Nets by 4 ½ points in this game. In addition to the line value, the Thunder apply to a solid 89-38-2 ATS momentum situation that plays on bad teams after an upset win (Oklahoma City just won at Chicago on Saturday). I’ll take Oklahoma City in a 2-Star Best Bet at +5 points or more and for 3-Stars at +7 or more.
2-Stars at +5 or more, 3-Stars at +7 or more.
COLLEGE
3 Star Selection
Tennessee Martin (-10 ½) over SE MISSOURI ST
12-Jan-09 05:00 PM Pacific Time
SE Missouri State is one of the worst teams in division 1 basketball and Tennessee Martin is an underrated team that applies to a very good 141-60-5 ATS big road favorite situation. Tennessee Martin struggled early in the season, but the Skyhawks have played much, much better since forward Olajide Hay joined the lineup on December 15th after sitting out the first 7 games. UTM was 2-5 straight up without Hay, but the Skyhawks are 7-1 straight up and 4-2 ATS since he joined the lineup. Hay is the team’s 3rd leading scorer and second leading rebounder and his 66% shooting percentage speaks of his ability to get offensive rebounds for easy scores. SE Missouri State is a horrible 3-13 with their 3 wins coming against Culver-Stockton, Longwood and Western Illinois, which are 3 bad teams. The Redhawks just lost at home by 20 points to an Eastern Illinois team that is 6 points worse than Tennessee Martin and SE Missouri State is just 9-16-1 ATS in all line home games under coach Scott Edgar (0-7 ATS their last 7), who has a horrible 26-41-2 ATS mark overall in his coaching career. SE Missouri State applies to a negative 29-86-5 ATS weak home court situation and my ratings favor Tennessee Martin by 13 ½ points in this game. I’ll take Tennessee Martin in a 3-Star Best Bet at -12 points or less and for 2-Stars at -12 ½ or -13 points.
3-Stars at -12 or less, 2-Stars up to -13.Comment
Comment