Service Plays Monday 4/29/19

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football

College Football
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football

Baseball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...57-ML-Baseball

College Basketball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...CAA-Basketball

NBA
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball

NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey

[dawggy]

DR. CHUCKBASKETBALL PLAYS

• Game: (573) Houston Rockets at (574) Golden State Warriors
  Date/Time: Apr 30 2019 10:35 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Houston Rockets 6.0 (-115)
  
  View Analysis
  
  Refs refs refs
  
  Pretty sure the Dubs finish the 3peat all told by the end of the season....but this hubub is gonna lead to something and most likely that's game 2. They won by merely 4 as it was needing a massive Steph 3 late to extend the lead past 2 points and Durant to go OFF yet again...at Oracle
  Rockets probably win this game going away in my estimation...and with all going on we still get the same half dozen? WTF

BASEBALL PLAYS

• Game: (907) Colorado Rockies at (908) Milwaukee Brewers
  Date/Time: Apr 29 2019 7:40 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Greek
  Play Rating: 5%
  Play: Colorado Rockies +112
  
  View Analysis
  
  - Freeland is back and healthy
  - After a 3-12 start the Rockies offense is HOT and rolling...despite missing the sweep on the Braves late yesterday they've won 10 of 13
  - Yelich is OUT
  - Rockies haven't played the Brew Crew since they got swept in the playoffs...revenge on their minds the entire winter
  - Freeland is 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA lifetime against the Brewers
  - Yelich is OUT
  - Before the skipped start Freeland pitched 6 innings allowing 2 hits.and no runs with 7 Ks in Coors against the Phils
  - Freeland ERA- 4.23 but FIP/xFIP of 3.68/3.85 with a career high 13.5% HR/FB rate
  - Yelich is OUT
  - Rockies are a dog with Freeland pitching which is a 22-12 SU proposition...17-10 SU when on the road
  - Expanding on the dog...Freeland is 10-2 SU...yes...10-2 SU when a road dog within 25 cents of a dollar!
  - Yelich is OUT
  - Rockies have won 4 of 5 outright as a road dog scoring 37 runs in the 5 games!
  - If Davies (or Garza) is the starter...ripe for an analytics fade!

[dawggy]

TONY FINNBASEBALL PLAYS

• FINN BIG TICKET 5% MLB GAME ~ MONTH
  Game: (901) St. Louis Cardinals at (902) Washington Nationals
  Date/Time: Apr 29 2019 7:05 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
  Play Rating: 5%
  Play: Washington Nationals -144
  
  View Analysis
  
  PLAY:: Washington Nationals -144 (good to -160)
  5% game rating
  LIST PITCHERS: Wacha and Corbin
  (901) St. Louis Cardinals at (902) Washington Nationals
  First let me set the record straight -- I do not typically tinker with Major League Baseball investments that require laying any amount of wood. The goal each and every night is to find favor from one dugout, or both, when playing totals, but most importantly doing so at plus-money. In 44 releases this season I have not pushed any play with a moneyline in excess of -130 to the shopping cart or to my clients and 19 of the 44 releaes have been -105 or plus money investments.
  This -144, which is currently the best number of the 15 shops I track and shop, is the best one can capture.. and I don't expect that to get better through a Sunday overnight or throughout the day Monday.
  PLAY: Washington Nationals -144 (good to -160)
  5% game rating
  
  LIST PITCHERS: Wacha and Corbin
  
  (901) St. Louis Cardinals at (902) Washington Nationals
  
  The Cardinals pitching staff, especially their starting rotation, continue to struggle to match their overall team performance of 2018 and much of the reason for their struggles have come via injury. In this case, having successuflly worked through his side session on Friday without complicating the issue, Michael Wacha will take the hill in the nation's capital for the St. Louis troupe and oppose the Nationals Pat Corbin.
  
  Wacha is coming off the 10-day IL after injuring his landing knee.. and ailing left knee that is reportedly patellar tendinitis. Wacha allowed five hits and a walk in his last turn before landing on the IL -- in a victory over a team he is perfect against across his young career, the Brewers (6-0 with a 3.84 ERA in 13 career appearances versus the Crew)
  
  The Cardinals Wacha has a history with his left knee, and it an injury that he struggles to be comfortable just walking be it from the dugout to the hill or from his house to his car. Wacha is in his prime as a pitcher, or was the last two campaigns, and at 27-years-old he has begun the backside of a middling career. Wacha has a 4.64 ERA through four starts this season. He leads the Cards staff with 24 strikeouts in 21 1/3 innings. Two of his starts have come against a team he has had more success against due to their free swinging philosophy, this being Milwaukee.
  
  Wacha has allowed one and two runs in his pair of win over the Brewers. In mid-May Wacha was dominated by the Dodgers lineup. The Cards right-hander surrendered seven runs in just 3.2 innings of work. His regression of late 2018 and early 2019 has come in losing nearly 8 percent in his GB rate and adding nearly the same percentage to his hard contact. The Goliath that were the Dodgers in this May 12th start came with Wacha owning a 1.54 ERA -- which came along with a number of unsustainable peripherals.. e.g. 96% strand rate.
  
  All evidence of regression is transparent for Wacha. He wasn't healthy for the most part a season ago and a number of those health issues remain to begin 2019. And without a 100 percent healthy landing knee he has battled his command.. this for the simple reason that the landing area and the stabilizer of the land, the knee, have to be right.. not close to right or "just ok" they are a big part of the mental aspect of pitching in the big boy league.. having confidence in the tools that make a good pitcher better than he really is.
  
  The second of his two starts outside of his victories against the Brewers saw him allow but one run while striking out seven --- but that start was accompanied by walking eight San Diego hitters in just 5.2 innings.
  
  It is asking the Cardinals Wacha a lot to jump back into a pitching mindset that requires a focus on routine when the prior season one is limited to less than 1090 innings of work. While pitching with his left knee issues Wacha has not thrown the pitch that has made him success at this level, his fastball. He has left the comfort zone of his fastball-heavy mix into the Twilight Zone of secondary pitches --- this being his curveball and changeup. Wacha also throws a cutter but the success of that pitch was the fact that he didn't show it at a high usage rate.
  
  Wacha began losing Velo on his fastball last season and that trend has continued in 2019. And to pour salt in the wounds of Cardinal fans his overall performance in 2018, less positive than the previous campaign, was due to assumed statistical regression..... Wacha was better last season, which was nothing special, than he should have been considering his underlying peripherals. Wacha benefited from a .253 BABIP and 7.6% HR/FB ratio despite allowing a 42.7% hard hit rate.
  
  The Nationals left-handed newbie, Pat Corbin, has been able to fly under the radar in the early portion of the 2019 season. This because despite his 120 million dollar free agent contract he isn't the headline starter for his new team... in fact he isn't even the second stand-in... with Scherzer and Strasburg owning the top spots in the Nationals rotation.
  
  Corbin dominated the soft-swinging bats of the San Fran Giants in April. He worked 7.2 innings of 2-hit baseball allowing one run while striking out nine. In his last start he conquered Coors Field with a win over the Rockies. Corbin allowed three runs (two earned) on five hits in six innings of a 6-3 victory in Denver over Colorado.
  
  Corbin has tossed quality starts in each of his outings this season. And one last mention in the mismatch that is Corbin vs Wacha and in particular, Corbin vs the Cardinals lineup....
  
  Corbin has frustrated the likes of Marcell Ozuna (3-for-16, six strikeouts) and the team's All Star backstop Molina (2-for-11). Corbin, during his big boy league learning curve has faced a number of the current Redbird bats and in his career five starts against St Louis is 1-1 with a 3.90 ERA.
  
  The inconsistency of the 2019 St Louis Cardinals can be attributed to two key variables. The injuries to the pitching staff, including the likes of finding stand-ins for Carlos Martinez and top pitching prospect Alex Reyes.
  
  And for more reasons than any the Cardinals would likely have a commanding lead in the NL Central, better than their current 17-10 mark, if they could just be bad against left-handed pitching... rather than their current "pathetic" status. The caveat to the following stat is that only the Minnesota Twins have less at bats than the Cardinals against left-handed pitching this season. In 137 at-bats against lefties in 2019 the Cardinals are hitting .197.. that is not a typo amigos... they are hitting nearly 30 pounds less than what I weigh in at. And they have shown little power against southpaws with a mere six home runs in total. And mind the fact that the lefties they have faced this year are not even close to the quality that is the 120 million dollar Corbin.
  
  WASHINGTON NATIONALS -144

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns

3* GOW

Philadelphia +6.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JR ODONNELL

3* GOW

Philadelphia +6.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover

3* San Francisco / LA DODGERS over 7.5

2* Dallas -115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Oh

L.A. DODGERS -152


L.A. DODGERS @ SAN FRANCISCO | 4/29 | 9:45 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 6:58 PM
Jeff Samardzija got the win his last time out for the Giants, but he's been pretty mediocre in eight appearances and a 4.06 ERA against the rival Dodgers. San Francisco's offense has been one of the league's least-productive. Kenta Maeda has been inconsistent but the Dodgers average nearly five runs in my simulations and win 66 percent of them. Back the home team.

30-17 IN LAST 47 MLB PICKS | +1260
23-15 IN LAST 38 LAD ML PICKS | +397

3-0 IN LAST 3 SF ML PICKS | +314


MILWAUKEE -124


COLORADO @ MILWAUKEE | 4/29 | 7:40 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 6:54 PM
Kyle Freeland has struggled so far for the Rockies, and the team is 2-3 when he gets the ball. The Brewers are 6-2 as a home favorite, while the Rockies have not taken it to a new level when the underdog. That includes a rough 2-7 as a slight dog of +129 or lower. Milwaukee wins more than 60 percent of my simulations. The implied probability puts the fair spread at -163, making the Brewers' price a great value.

30-17 IN LAST 47 MLB PICKS | +1260
34-18 IN LAST 52 COL ML PICKS | +1827

5-1 IN LAST 6 MIL ML PICKS | +498


ATLANTA -142


SAN DIEGO @ ATLANTA | 4/29 | 7:20 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 6:49 PM
Mike Soroka has been great so far in his rookie season, with two runs allowed in 10.2 innings. The Padres had a six-game win streak snapped on Sunday, but the offense has overperformed according to my computer model. The Braves are the better team Monday, winning nearly two-thirds of my simulations.

30-17 IN LAST 47 MLB PICKS | +1260
3-2 IN LAST 5 ATL ML PICKS | +159

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hackman
stars -115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marco D'Angelo/Sports Unlimited

4% Rockies

[golden contender]

GC: MLB

Monday card has a 6* NBA Play as we continue to rank #1 on several networks, In MLB Action we have the American League Total of the month from a perfect totals system that dates to 2004. MLB Comp play below.

The MLB Comp play for Monday is on Milwaukee at 7:40 eastern. The Brewers are 10-0 at home off a road game and have won 6 of 7 in the series with Colorado. Milwaukee is 7-2 at home vs losing teams and Colorado has lost 8 of 12 as a dog in this range and 4 of 5 vs N.L. Central teams. Freeland for the Rockies is 0-4 in road April starts and is 1-3 as a road dog. Daves for Milwaukee is 5-1 vs losing teams and has won 5 of 6 with 5 days rest. From the database we see that home favorites that scored 4 or less runs with 5+ hits in a road dog lss have won 18 of 23 vs a team off a +140 or higher road dog loss that scored 5 or more runs like the Rockies. Look for Milwaukee to take the opener. On Monday the lead plays are a 6* NBA Play as we continue to rank #1 on multiple leader boards in NBA. In bases we have our American League Total of the Month backed with a perfect totals system and 5 angles that dates to 2004. See us on facebook to Jump on now to start the week big in baskets and bases. For the MLB Free pick. Make it Milwaukee. Rob V- GC Sports

[WeWantMoehr]

Esparza (VSI)

5 Unit Play. Take #564 Over 215 Portland at Denver (10:35p.m., Monday April 29 TNT)
Tonight is Game #1 in this series between the Portland Trailblazers and Denver Nuggets and tonight at the Pepsi Center should be exciting. The Blazers come to Denver well-rested and wouldn't shock me to see tons of offense being displayed tonight. These two teams played 4 times this regular season and all 4 meetings went 'Over' the total and the winner averaged 115.5ppg. The Denver Nuggets come into this home game trending 'Over' games cashing 5 out 7 and I see this game being an up-tempo game. The Blazers are 11-5-1 O/U following a ATS loss and the Denver Nuggets are 5-1 O/U against Northwest Division teams. Let's also throw in that the last 8 meetings in Denver between these two teams 6 of them have gone 'Over'.

[WeWantMoehr]

Alan Harris - MLB

7 Unit Play. Take #906 Atlanta Braves -145 over San Diego Padres (7:10 PM, Monday, April 29)
The Atlanta Braves will look for back to back wins after dropping four of their last five when they take on the San Diego Padres at SunTrust Park in Atlanta, GA on Monday night. Mike Soroka (1-1, 1.69 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) will get the start for the Braves and he will be opposed by Nick Margevicius (2-2, 3.60 ERA, 1.08 WHIP), who is scheduled to get the call on the hill for the Padres. The Braves have posted a 4-1 record in their last five games where they faced a team with a winning % of .500 or higher and they are an excellent 5-2 in their last seven games where they faced a lefty starter. They have also won ten of their last thirteen games when facing a team that allowed five runs or more in their previous game and they are 8-3 in their last eleven at home versus a team with a winning record overall. The Padres, on the other hand, have struggled a bit in the spot they are in here tonight as they have gone just 1-5 in their last six games following a loss and they are an awful 3-7 in their last ten games where they faced a team with a losing record. Throw in the fact that the Braves have won 20 of their last 27 home games against the Padres and we're going to lay the price with them here to get the home win in Atlanta on Monday night.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rockdeman Sports (MLB Underdog of the Day) - St Louis Cardinals +131

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Essler

3* Colorado +105

1* Tampa Bay / Kansas City over 8.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin Rogers (VegasInsider MLB) - Baltimore Orioles +125