Sunday 5-5-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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NBA

Sunday, May 5

Last two games, Leonard was 26-46 from floor; rest of Toronto’s team was 42-128 (32.8%) in losses by 5-21 points; home side won seven of last nine series games. 76ers’ bench outscored Raptors’ subs 49-20 in last two games. Embiid exploded for 33 points, 10 boards, five blocks in Game 3, after playing sick in Games 1-2. Raptors are 2-3 vs spread in last five visits here. Toronto is 5-3 in playoffs this month; they’re 12-4 in last 16 games overall, winning three of last five road games. 76ers won eight of their last 11 games; over is 13-9 in their last 22 games. Sixers were +20 in 24:00 with Ennis on floor in Game 3.

Portland won an all-time classic in four OT’s Friday; three Blazers played 56:00+. Jokic played 65:00 for Denver, missed FT with 0:05.8 that was costly- he had 33 points, 18 rebounds, 14 assists. Denver won seven of its last 10 games with Portland; six of last seven series games went over the total. Home side won seven of last nine series games, with Nuggets 3-2 vs spread in last five visits here. Portland won nine of its last 11 games overall; under is 4-2 in last six Portland wins; their last two losses went over. Denver’s last four road games went over. No one in game was better than +6; Denver was -10 in 12:00 with Plumlee on floor.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Sunday, May 5

Trend Report

Toronto Raptors
Toronto is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games
Toronto is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Toronto's last 9 games
Toronto is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Toronto is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games on the road
Toronto is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games when playing Philadelphia
Toronto is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Toronto is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Toronto is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Toronto is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Toronto's last 10 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Philadelphia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Philadelphia is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 9 games at home
Philadelphia is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games when playing Toronto
Philadelphia is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Toronto
Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto
Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto
Philadelphia is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 10 games when playing at home against Toronto

Denver Nuggets
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 9 games
Denver is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games on the road
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Portland
Denver is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Portland
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games when playing Portland
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Portland
Denver is 3-17 SU in its last 20 games when playing on the road against Portland
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Denver's last 11 games when playing on the road against Portland
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Portland is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 6 games
Portland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Portland's last 20 games at home
Portland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
Portland is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Portland's last 7 games when playing Denver
Portland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
Portland is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Portland's last 11 games when playing at home against Denver

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Santa Cruz County Fair

Santa Cruz County Fair - Race 1

$1 1st Half Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $2 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta


Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 39 • Purse: $1,800 • Post: 1:00P
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND OLDER. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Dominant Stalker. SHADOW AFFAIR is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SHADOW AFFAIR: Horse is dropping in class, has an inside post position and isn't a Trailer. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MI MALDITO AMOR: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Horse is dropping in class, has an inside post position and isn't a Trailer. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
4
SHADOW AFFAIR
8/5

9/5
3
MI MALDITO AMOR
2/1

7/2




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
4
SHADOW AFFAIR
4

8/5
Alternator/Stalker
53

37

34.0

34.0

32.0
3
MI MALDITO AMOR
3

2/1
Alternator/Stalker
43

40

33.0

24.6

20.6
2
M L MOON DROP
2

3/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0

0

0.0

0.0

0.0








Unknown Running Style: CHICKA LINA (7/2) [Jockey: Osuna Jesus - Trainer: Gonzalez Robert S].

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Hastings

Hastings - Race 4

Exactor / Triactor / Superfecta


Claiming $16,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 94 • Purse: $15,000 • Post: 3:20P
(PLUS UP TO $3,750 THRIF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WEIGHT, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 5 ALLOWED 2 LBS. ; A RACE SINCE MARCH 5 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000, FOR EACH $1,750 TO $12,500 3 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $12,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED FOR ALLOWANCES).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. THE ODDS R GOOD is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * THE ODDS R GOOD: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long lay off. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. METAL MAGIC: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. APPELLANT: Toda y is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. OMEGA VICTORY: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff.
5
THE ODDS R GOOD
5/2

9/2
3
METAL MAGIC
4/1

5/1
2
APPELLANT
6/1

7/1
1
OMEGA VICTORY
8/1

10/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
5
THE ODDS R GOOD
5

5/2
Front-runner
98

90

92.8

86.0

80.5
3
METAL MAGIC
3

4/1
Front-runner
98

87

89.2

81.2

75.7
2
APPELLANT
2

6/1
Front-runner
90

94

83.7

75.8

70.8
1
OMEGA VICTORY
1

8/1
Front-runner
98

86

72.8

81.8

70.8
7
SILVERTOWN
7

7/2
Alternator/Stalker
89

90

74.8

81.2

74.2
6
TWISTGRIPS
6

4/1
Trailer
98

87

54.6

82.4

75.9
4
ACE DEUCE
4

8/1
Alternator/Non-contender
93

91

67.5

78.2

69.2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Tampa Bay Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Maiden Claiming - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $10400 Class Rating: 60

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000, FOR EACH $1,000 TO $8,000 1 LB.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 5 MADAME YUCCA 3/1

# 4 INTRICATELY 12/1

# 6 BROADWAY PEGGY 7/5

I think MADAME YUCCA is a very strong choice. Has been running soundly lately and will almost certainly be close to the lead early on. Ran a strong last race. Is worth a close look and may be a wager - strong Equibase speed figs (54 average) at today's distance and surface recently. INTRICATELY - Has been running in the most competitive company of the group of animals recently. Has the appearance of a profitable play. BROADWAY PEGGY - Has been running solidly lately and ought to be on or close to the front end early on. Ran a strong last race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Golden Gate Fields - Race #6 - Post: 3:48pm - Starter Allowance - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $12,500 Class Rating: 93

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 TOMASINO (ML=9/5)
#3 DOM THE BOMB (ML=7/5)


TOMASINO - My expertise says this is the sole pace presser in the race. Jock hops back aboard after getting to know the race horse by riding last time around the track. That's always a great angle. This horse has the class to win the race. A tactical ride by Hernandez, and this one could bound home the winner. The 96 latest race speed rating looks strong in the TrackMaster PPs. I expect a lot from this horse. His speed ratings under similar conditions are tops in this field. DOM THE BOMB - I think the shorter trip will help this gelding stay the trip. A gelding like this one, almost always in the money, usually makes an excellent trifecta key horse. Ranks highest in earnings per race. A powerful outing in this event can increase that total.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 C R BULLITT (ML=5/1),



Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - DOM THE BOMB - This mount is going to be tough against these horses. His trainer Wong is successful with sprints on the turf.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #4 TOMASINO on the win end if we get at least 7/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,4]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPER HIGH FIVE WAGERS:
Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Ajax Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Maiden - 250y on the Dirt. Purse: $16000 Class Rating: 60

QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 1 QUICK BOLLS JANGLE 5/1

# 5 SENATOR WOOT 3/1

# 3 LEAP YEAR TELLER 15/1

My selection in here is QUICK BOLLS JANGLE. Will probably go to the lead and should never look back. Could beat this field given the 63 Equibase Speed Fig earned in his last outing. No strangers to the winner's circle, Pascoe and Figueroa ought to have this gelding breaking away from the field. SENATOR WOOT - Has been travelling soundly and has among the top speed in the race for today's distance. Ran a solid last race. LEAP YEAR TELLER - The extreme drop in competition can only aid this one this time around. The average class rating of 55 makes this one tough to beat.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Belterra Park - Race #1 - Post: 12:35pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,900 Class Rating: 41

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 TAPJEN (ML=5/2)


TAPJEN - Ran in the last race against a tougher field at Belterra Park. The move down in class should suit her well. That last outing must not have been too hard on this filly for her to be able to race again so quickly. Can't help but like the 2nd time addition of Lasix by the trainer today. An indication Johnson thinks she can win.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 OHIO PRINCESS (ML=2/1), #1 PINK HALDER (ML=3/1), #1A SPIT'S IMAGE (ML=3/1),

OHIO PRINCESS - Can't wager on this runner in today's sprint of 6 furlongs. Hasn't even hit the board in a short distance event lately. Can't play this morning-line choice off the long layoff. The speed rating last race out doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class figure of today's race. Mark this horse as a likely underlay. PINK HALDER - This filly is always in the mix, but just doesn't get the job done. Difficult to wager on her on the win end. No pace in this race to help this come from behinder's hopes. SPIT'S IMAGE - This filly probably needs a more hospitable pace configuration to make her closing rush.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - TAPJEN - Coming off her last race with the top speed figure of 23 at Belterra Park. She is the filly to beat today.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #5 TAPJEN on the nose if you can get odds of 1/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Skip

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Belmont Park

05/05/19, BEL, Race 3, 2.34 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.07.03 CLAIMING. Purse $44,000.
Claiming Price $35,000 (Races Where Entered For $25,000 Or Less Not Considered In Weight Allowances). (UP TO $7,656 NYSBFOA) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLDAND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (3-5), Double
------------------------------
Top Horse(100.0000) - Races 315, Win Percent 29.21, $1 ROI 0.99, For Overall [Dirt Not MdnMClm]
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
Rating Pgm# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags
100.0000 1 Cathy Naz 12-1 Saez L Bond H. James T
099.1015 6 Bowl of Kisses 5/2 Ortiz. Jr. I Rodriguez Rudy R. FEL
097.5789 3 Trouble for Skylar 6/5 Carmouche K Gargan Danny
096.6846 2 Starlite Mission 3-1 Rosario J Cannizzo David A. SC
094.4869 5 Promise Me Roses 6-1 Franco M Rodriguez Rudy R. J
094.0275 4 My Lightnin Strike 20-1 Maragh R Levine Bruce N. W
After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit MUST be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to BEL.
Pgm# Profit ROI WPC W# Occ Profitable Conditions
1 49.40 1.29 35.71 30 84 [Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Distance Equal To Today
6 42.30 1.29 36.11 26 72 [Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Last Race 2nd Race After 45 Days Off
3 49.40 1.29 35.71 30 84 [Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Distance Equal To Today
2 49.40 1.29 35.71 30 84 [Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Distance Equal To Today
5 49.40 1.29 35.71 30 84 [Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Distance Equal To Today
4 49.40 1.29 35.71 30 84 [Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Distance Equal To Today

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Tampa Bay Downs

05/05/19, TAM, Race 9, 4.40 ET
1M [Turf] 1.33.04 CLAIMING. Purse $16,200.
Claiming Price $10,000 (Races Where Entered For $8,000 Or Less Not Considered). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD
Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 minimum) / Superfecta ($.10 minimum) / Super High 5
------------------------------
Top Horse(100.0000) - Races 346, Win Percent 30.35, $1 ROI 1.10, For Overall [Turf Not MdnMClm]
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
Rating Pgm# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags
100.0000 1 Arago 15-1 Alencar W Lopez Bernardo G. TFW
097.9300 4 Unspoiled Moments 2-1 Allen. Jr. R D House Gary F. JC
096.7539 6 Jiffy Josh 10-1 Martinez W Escobar Alison L
095.6177 3 In R Defence 20-1 Mendez K Chain Pearl
095.5200 5 Natural Order 5/2 Delgado D Guciardo Kathleen A. S
095.4191 8 Real Estate Mogul 7/2 Arterburn B Arterburn Lonnie E
095.0032 7 Spin Cycle 6-1 Allen M Quast Todd
094.7049 2 Gabe's Flag 10-1 Hernandez O March William E.
After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit MUST be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to TAM.
Pgm# Profit ROI WPC W# Occ Profitable Conditions
1 103.60 1.21 29.75 72 242 [Turf Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Not Favorite(not entry)
4 103.60 1.21 29.75 72 242 [Turf Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Not Favorite(not entry)
6 107.20 1.22 30.58 74 242 [Turf Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Distance Not Equal To Today
3 107.20 1.22 30.58 74 242 [Turf Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Distance Not Equal To Today
5 107.20 1.22 30.58 74 242 [Turf Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Distance Not Equal To Today
8 107.20 1.22 30.58 74 242 [Turf Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Distance Not Equal To Today
7 103.60 1.21 29.75 72 242 [Turf Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Not Favorite(not entry)
2 103.60 1.21 29.75 72 242 [Turf Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Not Favorite(not entry)
------------------------------
If Race Is Off Turf
------------------------------
Top Horse(100.0000) - Races 710, Win Percent 28.45, $1 ROI 0.76, For Overall [Dirt Not MdnMClm]
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
Rating Pgm# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags
100.0000 1 Arago 15-1 Alencar W Lopez Bernardo G. TFW
098.6214 4 Unspoiled Moments 2-1 Allen. Jr. R D House Gary F. JC
097.8327 8 Real Estate Mogul 7/2 Arterburn B Arterburn Lonnie E
097.5185 6 Jiffy Josh 10-1 Martinez W Escobar Alison L
096.9394 7 Spin Cycle 6-1 Allen M Quast Todd
096.4870 5 Natural Order 5/2 Delgado D Guciardo Kathleen A. S
095.9401 2 Gabe's Flag 10-1 Hernandez O March William E.
095.2811 3 In R Defence 20-1 Mendez K Chain Pearl
After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit MUST be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to TAM.
Pgm# Profit ROI WPC W# Occ Profitable Conditions
No Profitable Conditions For Any Horse