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Game Date/Time: 5/1/19 7:05 pm
Our Selection: Islanders Opponent: Hurricanes Line: +104 Rating: 1*
Analysis: At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Islanders over the Carolina Hurricanes. There have been upsets in this year's Stanley Cup Playoffs, but none more surprising than the Hurricanes victories in the first two games of this second round series. The 'Canes had to go to seven games to beat the Caps, while the Islanders were well-rested after a first round sweep of the Pens. But that hasn't mattered so far as the Canes out-played the Isles at home as they did in Game 7 of the series with DC. But Game 2 was costly to Carolina, as it lost two more players to injury, including #1 goalie Petr Mrazek who left in the 2nd period with a groin injury. Back-up Curtis McElhinney came in and stopped all 17 shots he faced, but asking him to do that again after he played in just one regular season game since the end of March is a tall order. The Isles know that a loss tonight would basically end their season so expect them to come out swinging tonight. The good news for them is that, with the 'Canes victories in the first two games, the road team is now 7-1 in the last eight meetings. And the Islanders are 11-1 this season off back to back losses, and 16-1 after not scoring 3 or more goals in any of their two previous games. Take New York.
since 4/1: 31-22-2, +16.35 units
yesterday: 0-2, -10.8... he had 6* tex & 3* col
3 Units - Take #908 Brewers (-135) over Colorado *7:40 EST
With last night's win, Milwaukee has won four of five and goes for another 'W' over Colorado tonight. The current money line is right in the Brew Crew's wheelhouse as they are 26-9 as a home favorite of -125 to -175. Never a big fan of Chase Anderson from a pure pitching standpoint, he does have one attribute that works, he wins.
On the teams Anderson has started for in home night games, he's 32-14, which is Zach Greinke-like. With Colorado scoring just 3.7 RPG on the road and having a 21-56 record after two straight games where they had five or less hits, the Crew earns the victory.
2 Units - Take #921 Pirates (-150) over Texas *2:05 EST
Pittsburgh was an unlikely winner, with a 9th inning rally and winning in extra innings. That momentum carries is to today against a Texas hurler they should knock around.
The Rangers Shelby Miller (1-1, 7.52 ERA) is deplorable and he's given up four runs in each of his past four starts (only 16.2 innings total innings). For those keeping score at home, that's a run an inning and after yesterday's bullpen meltdown, Texas relievers have an ERA over 5 and at home, it's over 5.5. With last night's win, the Pirates are 18-5 in interleague games. Make it 19-5 for the Bucs.
Hump day card has The 2019 MLB N.L. West Game of the Year headlining and a rare 17-1 6* NHL Playoff side from a Game 3 Historical System along with 100% NBA. MLB comp play below
The MLB Comp play for Wednesday is on Cleveland at 7:10 eastern. The Indians fit a powerful 17-3 league wide system that plays on road favorites of 140 or more with a total of 8 or less if they are off a -200 or more road favored win scoring 5 or more with a total that was 8 or less and they had 1 or no errors. The Indians are 5-0 on the road vs N.L. Teams and 9-4 as a road favorite in this range. They have Kluber going and he has won 10 of 12 on the road vs losing teams. Miami has lost 7 of 8 in the series with Cleveland and 15 of 19 as a dog from +110 to +150. They are 0-4 on Wednesdays and even with C. Smith on the mound this will be too tough a task. Play on Cleveland.On Wednesday we have our N.L. West Game of the the Year with an 18-0 System headlining along with a rare 6* NHL Play and NBA. See us on facebook to jump on. For the MLB Free pick. Play on Cleveland. Rob V- GC Sports
FINN WED NITE MLB DOUBLEHEADER II Game: (917) Tampa Bay Rays at (918) Kansas City Royals Date/Time: May 1 2019 5:05 PM EDT Betting Line Provider: Heritage Play Rating: 4% Play: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-123)
This Royals-Rays game is the second of a Wednesday doubleheader. on Tuesday was postponed because of rain. And the contest will start 45 minutes after the completion of the first game. Sparkman, who was just demoted to Triple-A Omaha after pitching three innings (74 pitches) out of the KC bullpen this past Saturday. Sparkman, the former Blue Jays, was a Rule 5 pick by KC for the fee of $25,000.
Reigning Cy Young winner Snell returns to the mound after pitching just 3 1/3 innings in his last start. Tampa Bay played so ridiculously well during the first three weeks, the team not only needed a day off from their injury and form woes today's doubleheader sweep, hypothetically, is just what the doctor ordered. And the pitching matchups for such significantly favor the Rays.
Snell was pulled early from his last start, against the Royals, as a precaution. He is, however, healthy and before his 3 inning stint in his last turn had allowed one run across 19 innings in his previous three outings. This with 33 strikeouts and two walks combined while posting two wins.
TAMPA BAY RAYS -1.5 runs
FINN WED NITE MLB DOUBLHEADER I Game: (905) San Diego Padres at (906) Atlanta Braves Date/Time: May 1 2019 7:20 PM EDT Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle Play Rating: 4% Play: Total Under 9.0 (+104)
PLAY: Under the Total of 9 runs (good to 9 runs)
4% game rating LIST PITCHERS: Quantrill and Fried
Quantrill is a relative unknown at the Major League level. He was the Padres top pick in the 2016 draft and the organization’s No. 12 prospect according to MLB Pipeline. The right-hander was in Triple-A El Paso this season and pitched to a 2.86 ERA while holding opponents to a .215 average against in a hitter friendly league. He son of former Major Leaguer Paul Quantrill is more than prepared for his MLB debut and has the advantage the first two times through the rotation.
Fried will ride his over-the-top curveball tonight against a Braves lineup that is, for the most part, a fastball hitting order. If given the chance to watch Fried tonight do so. His 400 RPM curve has more rotation than that of Dodgers Cy Young winning Kershaw and creates a high rate of swings and misses, as well, induces ground balls and soft contact.
The Padres are slashing just .220/.275/.394 versus left-handed pitching and are the second worst team in the big league with runners in scoring position.
Scheduled home plate umpire Chad Whitson is pitcher-friendly and assists both pitchers tonight.
Game: (577) Portland Trail Blazers at (578) Denver Nuggets Date/Time: May 1 2019 9:05 PM EDT Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker Play Rating: 3% Play: Total Under 219.5 (-110)
Game: (581) Toronto Raptors at (582) Philadelphia 76ers Date/Time: May 2 2019 8:05 PM EDT Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker Play Rating: 4% Play: Toronto Raptors -1.0 (-110)
Game: (921) Pittsburgh Pirates at (922) Texas Rangers Date/Time: May 1 2019 2:05 PM EDT Betting Line Provider: William Hill Play Rating: 4% Play: Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (+110)
Game: (915) Baltimore Orioles at (916) Chicago White Sox Date/Time: May 1 2019 4:10 PM EDT Betting Line Provider: Westgate Play Rating: 4% Play: Chicago White Sox -1.5 (+110)
Game: (927) Detroit Tigers at (928) Philadelphia Phillies Date/Time: May 1 2019 7:05 PM EDT Betting Line Provider: Westgate Play Rating: 4% Play: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-105)
Shelby Miller fade spectacular here this afternoon. Sorry for the late post...thought I had gotten this out already!
Miller FIP/xFIP = 7.64/7.75...both higher than his actual ERA! His BABIP straight up doesn't match his other numbers...he is due big time for even more. base hits when contact is made.
Taillon, on the other hand is a hard luck 1-3 with an FIP/xFIP split both in the 3s and an improvement in his ERA
Game: (919) Toronto Blue Jays at (920) Los Angeles Angels Date/Time: May 1 2019 10:07 PM EDT Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker Play Rating: 3% Play: 1H Toronto Blue Jays 0.5 (-110)
Pena sits at 4.81/4.49 FIP/xFIP split with an absurd .232 BABIP that just doesn't fit...he also barely has a plus pitch and his curve borders on atrocious.
Stroman is defying all logic and analytics just ripping teams apart so far this season...and similar to Castillo it pans out as real in my estimation...with a 2.31 FIP backing up his league leading ERA. And while Pena struggles throwing his curve...Stroman boasts one of the league's best...and only first 5 here for safety
4% Denver
Teams that won game #1 as a HF game #2 are 31-7 SU & 26-12 ATS (68.4%). Portland's Liliard also scored 39 points and banged up Kanter scored 26 points the Blazers shot over 50% and they still lost game #1. Can't see them improving over that performance in game #2.
BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (903) Cincinnati Reds at (904) New York Mets Date/Time: May 1 2019 7:10 PM EDT Betting Line Provider: William Hill Play Rating: 4% Play: Cincinnati Reds +170
4* Cincinnati w/ DeSclafani +160 NY Mets w/ deGrom 7:10 PM
Game is priced on what the pitchers did LY. DeScafani is 2-0 his last two starts throwing 12 innings while allowing one run on 6 hits. On the flip-side deGrom has lost 3 straight allowing 14 runs in 13 innings while also allowing 7 walks the last 9 innings. I normally don’t look at day vs night but the Cincinnati is 2-9 in day games and a very profitable 10-8 at night including 5-5 on the road. Reds are also hitting better the last 5, and 10 days.
Game: (901) St. Louis Cardinals at (902) Washington Nationals Date/Time: May 1 2019 7:05 PM EDT Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle Play Rating: 3% Play: 1H Total Over 4.0 (-110)
Mikolas v. Scherzer
Wind blowing out to left and Mikolas has struggled with twice the league average HR/FB rate so far...his BABIP does not match up well with his FIP...coming in at an average of .243 but and FIP of 6.02. He isn't a strike out pitcher and we just need him to give up a few runs in the first 5 innings.
Scherzer on the opposing mound has been the opposite...hard luck 3 losses with pretty dominant stuff...everything in play works out for the hitters and his ERA is twice his FIP. Max has given up multiple runs in all but 1 start however...and this is a low number for first 5 today considering the offenses and Cards pitcher.
Game: (909) Los Angeles Dodgers at (910) San Francisco Giants Date/Time: May 1 2019 9:45 PM EDT Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle Play Rating: 4% Play: Total Over 7.0 (-101)
Ryu v. MadBum
Combo of wind blowing out in San Fran more than any situation today....plus a solid price on a low number likely due to Lefty/Lefty matchup and big name stud pitchers...
However...Ryu stands at a 31.6%HR/FB rate on the season while Bumgarner sits at 13.5. Both guys get many more flyballs than groundball...and both have a BABIP against over .300! Almost even money for a 5-3 game in 9 innings feels almost too easy to be honest. Both guys are allowing over 40% of the contact by opposing hitters to be hard contact and over 85% zone contact....should be not as bad a night for hitters as Vegas is praying we think it will be...even with SF's anemic offense.
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