Service Plays Monday 5/6/19

[B*mb07]

Marco D
PLAY: (504) HOUSTON ML -115
RATING: 4% PLAY

Wow how the market has changed as Houston was -3.5 in Game 3 win and cover albeit in OT but now its pick. Public perception is that in a must win game down 0-2 Houston barely won now the public is back on the Warriors bandwagon. Houston owned the boards winning the game with second chance points as they out rebounded the Warriors 67-48 with an 17-7 edge in Offensive Rebounds. I think Houston had all the pressure in the world on them in Game 3 now with a win ugly or not they broke through and now can build off that momentum. Houston knows they can play with the Warriors and I think you see an even more confident Houston team tonight. I also can’t pass up the value of laying 3.5 points less than Saturday. Since Nov 1st HOUSTON is 26-13 ATS at home games this season. My numbers have Houston winning by 5-7 points.

TAKE HOUSTON as MARCO’S 4% NBA MONDAY MASSACRE

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Spot Player
All 3 Unit Max Plays
STL ML
TB -1.5 RL
NYM ML

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BeZoBets

3* Houston Rockets ML -110
3* Cleveland Indians -1.5 -130
2* Nationals/Brewers UNDER 4 1H -119
2* Minnesota Twins ML +103
2* Columbus Blue Jackets 3-Way ML +139
2* Colorado Avalanche 3-Way ML +133

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tom Fornelli


BALTIMORE +149


BOSTON @ BALTIMORE | 5/06 | 7:05 PM EDT
2:43 PM
This price is just too juicy. The Red Sox are sending Josh Smith to the mound tonight, and he's a 31-year old who has spent most of his career in the minors. He's started 151 games in the minors, and this will be his 10th start in the Majors, and first start with the Red Sox. In his previous nine starts, he has 6.10 ERA in 38.1 innings and has struck out 31 hitters with 24 walks. While the Orioles may not be a good team, their offense is adequate, and this could easily turn into a 7-6 type of game.

10-5-1 IN LAST 16 MLB PICKS | +487
3-1 IN LAST 4 BOS ML PICKS | +180


HOUSTON -1


GOLDEN ST. @ HOUSTON | 5/06 | 9:30 PM EDT
2:42 PM
This series has not been as pretty or well-played as I had anticipated, and not just because Steph Curry blew a wide-open dunk (shortly after missing an easy layup). But his fingers are clearly affecting his overall play, and with a handicapped Steph I have a hard time trusting the Warriors on the road against a Rockets team this good.

75-47 IN LAST 122 NBA PICKS | +2324
4-0 IN LAST 4 GS ATS PICKS | +400

2-1 IN LAST 3 HOU ATS PICKS | +90


MILWAUKEE +1.5


MILWAUKEE @ BOSTON | 5/06 | 7:00 PM EDT
2:25 PM
I don't have any great, in-depth analysis or trend for this pick. It's just the result of my belief that Milwaukee's the better team in this matchup, and that while Boston won Game 1, they have not had a single answer defensively in the last two games.

75-47 IN LAST 122 NBA PICKS | +2324
4-0 IN LAST 4 BOS ATS PICKS | +400

2-1 IN LAST 3 MIL ATS PICKS | +93

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Adam Thompson


MILWAUKEE +1.5


MILWAUKEE @ BOSTON | 5/06 | 7:00 PM EDT
11:44 AM
The Bucks figured out how to get the Greek Freak on track and they rolled in Game 3 in Boston. They had the best road record in the NBA and are 8-2 against the spread as an underdog, including 7-1 on the road. I think Eric Bledsoe plays better -- Kyrie Irving was productive against Bledsoe and the Bucks won anyway. That aids Milwaukee's quest.

85-65-1 IN LAST 151 NBA PICKS | +1310
5-2 IN LAST 7 MIL ATS PICKS | +282

2-1 IN LAST 3 BOS ATS PICKS | +93


PHILADELPHIA +115


PHILADELPHIA @ ST. LOUIS | 5/06 | 8:05 PM EDT
10:00 AM
The Phillies are averaging 5.4 runs this month as the offense has found its form. Monday they throw a pitcher in Vince Velasquez that is coming off the only start that he's allowed three runs and gone fewer than five innings. On the road he has a 1.53 ERA and .188 average allowed. St. Louis is among the best-hitting teams against right-handers, but Philly has the pitching edge. Aside from an eight-inning, two-run gem against the Mets on April 20, Miles Mikolas has gone 5-6 innings and allowed 3-5 runs in all of them.

6-0 IN LAST 6 MLB ML PICKS | +620
17-6 IN LAST 23 PHI ML PICKS | +1040


CHI. CUBS -263


MIAMI @ CHI. CUBS | 5/06 | 8:05 PM EDT
9:44 AM
Cole Hamels mowed down the Marlins in Miami earlier this year, tossing seven shutout innings. Now the rematch in Chicago, where Hamels has a lifetime 1.80 ERA. The Marlins' offense is dreadful against all competition, but has just three road wins and is averaging an amazing 2.2 runs per game on the road. After a rough start to the year, the Cubs' offense has heated up and is averaging 8.0 runs in the last week. Sandy Alcantra hasn't had a quality start since March and his longest was a six-inning effort against these Cubs, when he gave up five runs in a home loss.

6-0 IN LAST 6 MLB ML PICKS | +620
16-10 IN LAST 26 CHC ML PICKS | +538

4-1 IN LAST 5 MIA ML PICKS | +259


MINNESOTA -116


MINNESOTA @ TORONTO | 5/06 | 7:07 PM EDT
9:32 AM
Twins starter Martin Perez is coming of an eight-run blanking of the Astros, while the Blue Jays' Marcus Stroman is coming off his worst start, a 3.1-inning dud vs. the Angels. Minnesota is also averaging 5.9 runs per game on the road, one of the league's better marks and two runs more than Toronto averages at home.

6-0 IN LAST 6 MLB ML PICKS | +620
8-2 IN LAST 10 MIN ML PICKS | +625

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Michael Rusk


TAMPA BAY -206


ARIZONA @ TAMPA BAY | 5/06 | 7:10 PM EDT
3:42 PM
This is the largest pitching mismatch of the MLB slate Monday night. Although Blake Snell isn’t off to the start that we all predicted, he is a different pitcher at home. Lifetime his ERA is 2.49 in 29 starts at home as opposed to a 3.62 on the road in 28 starts. I look for a confused Diamondbacks lineup to get behind early to last year's American League Cy Young winner. The southpaw should roll at home tonight against the Diamondbacks.

32-16 IN LAST 48 MLB ML PICKS | +1213
9-1 IN LAST 10 ARI ML PICKS | +879

3-2 IN LAST 5 TB ML PICKS | +99


UNDER 9 SEATTLE @ N.Y. YANKEES | 5/06 | 6:35 PM EDT


3:41 PM
This total is a tad inflated. Both teams combined this season are 42-24 cashing Overs. Regression is well overdue especially because recently this trend has skyrocketed for these two ballclubs. Both veteran pitchers have great track records against each other giving up just seven runs in their last six starts combined. Read that last sentence again. The Under shouldn’t be an issue Monday night.

37-22-1 IN LAST 60 MLB PICKS | +998
4-1-1 IN LAST 6 NYY O/U PICKS | +286


TORONTO -120


MINNESOTA @ TORONTO | 5/06 | 7:07 PM EDT
3:40 PM
The Blue Jays are just a different ballclub at home rather than on the road. With the emergence of Vlad Guerrero Jr. I finally look for the rookie to get it together this homestand. Losing six of their last seven, the Jays are well undervalued with their ace on the mound who has been an overwhelming favorite their last two home matchups against the Twins coming in at -210 and -175. The Jays will get it together against Martin Perez and the Twins Monday night.

32-16 IN LAST 48 MLB ML PICKS | +1213
6-0 IN LAST 6 TOR ML PICKS | +669

3-1 IN LAST 4 MIN ML PICKS | +125

[Yellow]

Essler 3* GOM

Astros -1.5

[dawggy]

TONY FINNBASEBALL PLAYS

• BIG TICKET MLB GAME ~ MONTH (6-2)
  Game: (969) Minnesota Twins at (970) Toronto Blue Jays
  Date/Time: May 6 2019 7:07 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: William Hill
  Play Rating: 5%
  Play: Minnesota Twins +105
  
  View Analysis
  
  PLAY: Minnesota Twins -105 (good to -120)
  5% game rating
  LIST PITCHERS: Perez and Stroman
  
  (969) Minnesota Twins at (970) Toronto Blue Jays
  
  The Twins assets rest in their ability to score runs. They are a borderline squad that will likely end the season with a record that is better than they are as a whole, because of the weak AL Central. This Twins team can hit the baseball for average and for power. They currently own the second best OPS in Major League Baseball behind the Houston Astros. They have hit the third most home runs. Only Seattle and Milwaukee have hit more.
  
  In addition there is only one team in the league that has struck out less than the Twins, that being the Angels. The Twinkies offense has not drawn a large number of walks this season, only 91 which ranks in the bottom 20 percent of the league, but the combination of their BA, OBP, OPS while putting the ball in play makes them a nightmare matchup for the likes of Marcus Stroman.
  
  Recently the best hitting team in the league, Houston, stacked their lineup with right-handed hitters, in a game against Twins lefthander Martin Perez. Whom is Monday night's starter for the Twinkies. This approach is common for the Astros and they have the bench and the bats to do such.. and they have been successful in such. The game I am referencing was a late April affair and an event that Perez won moving him to 3-0 on the season. In the game in which the Strohs stacked the right side of the box Perez worked eight innings of scoreless baseball. He allowed four hits, walked two and struck out seven. He needed just 100 pitches to do so.
  
  Perez is 4-0 this season. He has a 3.41 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. The aforementioned numbers are nothing to overly excited about. And he faced the Jays in mid-April in a game his team ended up losing. But not because of what Perez did on the mound. The lefty tossed six inning of one run baseball. that resulted in a no decision.
  
  The Jays rank 24th in wRC+ at 80 which is 20 points below the league average. They also rank 26th in wOBA and are tied for the league lead with 27% strike out percentage. Perez has thrown nearly twice as many strikes as balls this season and as a starter his WHIP is nearly .30 points lower than his overall numbers.
  
  at this point of the season, coming off a dominating performance against a power-laden Astros lineup, his work against the Jays tonight will take much less energy and is nearly opposite the stress he faced in commanding a Houston lineup that included the likes of Springer, Altuve, Bregman, Correa, Gurriel, and more.
  
  Mike Trout and Albert Pujols are typically the focus for pitchers when game planning their approach to the Angels lineup. Toronto right-hander Marcus Stroman was unable to keep the two from squaring up the ball in his last start and the result was a 6-3 loss. Entering his May 1st start vs the Halos the Jays right-hander had worked to turns for a total of 15 innings in which he allowed just seven hits and one run.
  
  The Jays No. 1 starter was able to work around his four walks in the pair of Blue Jays victories, both against the Oakland A's, but command continues to be an issue.
  
  Depending on whom you listen to or read you will likely hear the same message being that Stroman has been better than his 1-4 record. There are those that will preach surface numbers of Stroman and state he has been unlucky and received very little run support. The latter is accurate. The Jays are a lineup that isn't going to put up a large number of crooked innings in a week of baseball yet alone a single game. But Stroman's 2.23 ERA is in line for regression to the mean. A pitcher that is working on a career swinging strike percentage like Stroman is can't work 30-plus starts and keep an ERA under 3.50 runs, not without a season of unsustainable peripherals. Stroman's current SwStr% is just over 10 percent, which is below league average and it is above Stroman's career average.
  
  In addition this early season Stroman has yet to give up a home run. With all of these career marks approximately 20-plus percent through the 2019 regular season his xFIP is 3.85, which would be another career mark, if he were able to remain in that neighborhood through September. However, his xFIP is nearly a run and a half higher than his ERA.
  
  Stroman, five years into his MLB career, and at the age of 28, is who he is. And for the most part has reached his peak as a pitcher. Stroman is an innings eater that depends on weak contact and ground balls to succeed. Stroman is painfully inconsistent. His lack of strike outs and swings and misses make him subject to batted ball luck and know that if I have one variable I will fade in a starting pitcher is one that gives up as many walks as Stroman does per nine innings of work yet has a K/9IP ratio in the neighborhood of 6.00. E.g. meet Marcus Stroman because he is that pitcher.
  
  The Blue Jays finally welcomed their top prospect, Vlad Jr, but this is a lineup that is as offensively challenged as any in the league. Overall the Jays are slashing .230/.295/.375 with a team OPS of just .669. Versus left-handed pitching the have been even less than their overall season numbers which is hard to do. In truth the Jays lineup is hitting for higher average and on-base-percentage against LHP this year but not by a significant number (.249/.300/.353). Most notable, on the season, and in 309 at-bats against lefties this Toronto offense has a total of just 3 home runs. No, that is not a typo.
  
  MINNESOTA TWINS +105

[dawggy]

CAL SPORT


BASEBALL PLAYS

• Game: (959) Atlanta Braves at (960) Los Angeles Dodgers
  Date/Time: May 6 2019 10:10 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Heritage
  Play Rating: 5%
  Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -155
  
  View Analysis
  
  5% Game of the week
  #960 5% LA Dodgers -155 Atlanta (Buehler & Gausman)
  While the price is higher than I use at -155 I still feel there is solid value as it should be north of -200. The Dodgers are 5-1 after their last 6 losses but still have to feel good about taking 2 of 3 from the Padres especially after trailing by multiple runs in each of their wins. LA is hitting .318 & .293 their last 5 and 10 days while the Braves are batting .272 & .263. Walker Buehler is returning to form and this game is priced on his 5.22 ERA despite that in his last 3 starts he has a 3.12 ERA and a 0.981 WHIP. Kevin Gausman has been lit up his last 3 starts with an 8.25 ERA and 1.583 WHIP. Braves may be off 3-games sweep but it was against the Marlins

[B*mb07]

Champagne - LAD Blue Jays under

[B*mb07]

Philly Guy Cubs Astros Mets

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fezzik
2* under 220.5 houston golden st
2* golden st +1.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave essler

3*mlb
Houston -1.5(-130)

1*
St.louis -130

1*
Boston -120

1*
Golden State +1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Goodfella

3*
LA DODGERS -155

2*
Golden State +1

3*
LA DODGERS / Atlanta over 8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JR ODONNELL

3*nba
Houston -117