Friday 5-10-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian Bitler

Brian’s 9* MLB No Non-Sense Winner

San Diego vs. Colorado, 05/10/2019 20:40 EDT

Money Line: -164 Colorado

Sportsbook:
Betonline

I hate laying juice as much as the next guy but I just don’t trust the points in this spot. Love German Marquez he’s been lights out this season. 52 strike outs and 12 walks. Look for the Rockies to get game one of this big home series.

Rockies are 6-0 in Marquezs last 6 starts with 4 days of rest.
Rockies are 5-1 in Marquezs last 6 Friday starts.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dwayne Connors

Friday night comp play will be to look for this Golden State-Houston game to hold Under the posted total.


The total has dropped considerably, and with good reason, as Kevin Durant and his 34-plus points per game will be watching from the sideline in this 6th game of the Western Conference semifinals.


The teams held Under the total on Wednesday night, as they Under is now 4-2-1 the last 7 series meetings, and an overall 18-7-1 the last 26 overall series showdowns between the teams. The Under is also 20-8-1 in Houston the last 29 times these teams have tangled at the Toyota Center.


Of course, even with KD's offense sidelined, there is still a ton of points represented on both teams, and the fact the Warriors will have to play a more attacking style means this game should be played at a bit of a quicker clip which also means we could see the potential for an Over developing on Friday night.


I am going to look for the pace to be quicker, but I am also going to look for a few more missed shots than usual, as I have a feeling both teams will be trying to do a little too much on offense - the Warriors trying to compensate for Durant's absence, and the Rockets trying to keep their season alive.


This game will come close to the total, but in the end I see the Under moving to 5-2-1 the last 8 series meetings, as this one holds just shy of going Over the total.


Golden State-Houston Under in Game Six.

2* GOLDEN STATE-HOUSTON UNDER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Brayman

I'm on a 12-3 run with free plays and tonight I look to make it 13 of 16, as I love the Boston Red Sox to roll tonight against the Seattle Mariners.

We're going to have to lay the run line, considering we're seeing a big price with the defending World Series champs opening a three-game series against the struggling M's.

How bad have the Mariners fallen from their pedestal? They answered their 13-2 start to the season by losing 18 of their last 25. And now they head into Fenway Park to face the champs, who have won 8 of 10.

And remember, the Red Sox were in last place in the American League East on April 19, now they're in third place, and are chasing the surprising Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees. This is a good chance to gain some ground, considering the Rays and Yanks are in Tampa Bay for the weekend.

Since every MLB wager on a run line or total auto-lists pitchers, I want you to be sure the two pitchers on your ticket, when making this play, are Erik Swanson and Eduardo Rodriguez. If they are not the pitchers of record when making your play, disregard this play.

Rodriguez looked great in his last start, as he handled the Chicago White Sox with ease after his offense supplied him with 15 runs of support. The crafty southpaw was splendid in six innings of work, allowing just one run and striking out six.

He earned his third victory of the season, as he held an opponent to just one earned run for the second time in three starts, and three or fewer earned runs for the fourth time in five starts.

Swanson isn't going to last against Boston's lineup, as the rookie has struggled early on this season with a 1-3 mark and 4.94 ERA.

Take Boston big here.

1* RED SOX RUN LINE (Rodriguez-Swanson)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Valentino

Comp play for Friday comes on the Yankees and Rays to stay Under the total.

This will be the first series meeting of the year between the division-rivals and I expect it to be a lower-scoring contest.

New York just played a 3-1 Under yesterday at home against Seattle, as they Yankees come into Tropicana Field with Unders played in 2 of their last 3, and 3 of their last 5 overall.

Tampa Bay comes into this weekend set having landed Under the total in 4 of their last 6 games, and 5 of their last 8 games overall.

You factor in the pitching matchup tonight, and I think there is a strong chance tonight's game does not see much more than 5 or 6 runs combined being scored.

Domingo German has been the best pitcher through the first month-plus of the season for the Yankees, as the lanky righty steps to the mound with a 6-1 mark, and a 2.35 ERA. German has allowed 3 runs or less to score in 6 of his 7 starts on the season, and he has also whiffed 39 batters in his 38-plus innings worked this year.

Meanwhile, Tampa pitcher Tyler Glasnow has not lost yet this season, as he enters at 6-0, and his ERA of 1.47 tells me that the Yankees will likely not be seeing too many runs come across the dish in these 9 innings of action tonight. Glasnow has not allowed more than 2 runs in any of his 7 starts this season, and he has fanned 48 batters in his 43 innings of work this year.

Each of Glasnow's last 3 starts have played Under the total, while the Under is 5-1-1 for his 7 trips to the slab this season.

Series numbers show 12 of the last 17 meetings having held Under the total between the teams, and tonight I don't see it any other way.

Yankees-Rays to open their weekend series with an Under.

1* N.Y. YANKEES-TAMPA BAY UNDER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chris Jordan

My free play tonight is back on the ice, where I just nailed the Dallas Stars and St. Louis Blues to stay Under the posted number on Tuesday, and then hit the San Jose Sharks to nab their second straight Game 7 victory, this time over the Colorado Avalanche.

I'm looking ahead to the Western Conference Final between the Sharks and Blues, as the price is cheap.

The fact is, this team has gone, as Joe Pavelski goes.

He was injured during the regular season, and provided a spark when he returned.

He was lost after a gruesome head injury in the first round of the playoffs, and the team was ignited in Game 7 of the second round, when he scored a goal and registered an assist to lead the Sharks to a 3-2 win over Colorado.

Pavelski is San Jose's Michael Jordan. He's the team's LeBron.

I mean c'mon, this is a guy who took a Brent Burns slap shot off the jaw in Game 1 of the opening round, and the puck trickled past Marc-Andre Fleury for a goal.

Pavelski will ultimately be the reason the Sharks win this series and end up in the second Stanley Cup Final in four seasons.

For everything this team has been through, and as deep as the forwards and defensemen go, the Sharks have shown us resiliency and that they know how to win.

They fell behind 3-1 in the first-round series to Vegas before rallying to win Games 5, 6 and 7 to complete the greatest comeback in franchise history.

Sans Pavelski for the first six games against Colorado, the Sharks won the off-numbered games. Their captain and leading goal scorer came back in Game 7 and, well, here we are.

I like St. Louis, a lot. I love the tenacity of this team and think Jordan Binnington should win the Calder Trophy over Vancouver's Elias Petterson. Heck, I thought Binnington could've been considered for the Vezina Trophy.

But when you speak of a Sharks team that has forwards like Pavelski, Tomas Hertl, Logan Couture, Evander Kane and defensemen like Erik Karlsson, Brent Burns and Marc-Edouard Vlasic, it's just too hard to look past this team. And lest we forget how good of a postseason goalie Martin Jones was prior to last season, when the Sharks were beat in six games by surprising Vegas. Jones has gone through two tough seven-game series, and he's a grizzled veteran who led the Sharks to the Stanley Cup Final in 2016.

The Sharks have all the confidence in the world, with the best blueliners in the league, a rough and tough Pavelski who just had staples in his head last week, and scrappy forwards like Hertl and Couture, who lead the league with nine goals each this postseason.

San Jose will have St. Louis singing the blues, as the Sharks are smelling blood in the water!

Roll with the San Jose Sharks in this series.

2* SHARKS SERIES

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Dunkel

Friday, May 10


Milwaukee @ Chicago Cubs

Game 951-952
May 10, 2019 @ 2:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Milwaukee
(Gonzalez) 15.656
Chicago Cubs
(Quntana) 17.082
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago Cubs
by 1 1/2
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago Cubs
-125
No Total
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago Cubs
(-125); N/A

LA Angels @ Baltimore

Game 965-966
May 10, 2019 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Angels
(Cahill) 14.561
Baltimore
(Straily) 16.007
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 1 1/2
12
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Angels
-180
10 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(+160); Over

Chicago White Sox @ Toronto

Game 967-968
May 10, 2019 @ 7:07 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago White Sox
(Covey) 12.004
Toronto
(Buchholz) 13.483
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 1 1/2
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
-120
9 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(-120); Over

Seattle @ Boston

Game 969-970
May 10, 2019 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
(Swanson) 14.666
Boston
(Rdriguez) 16.273
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 1 1/2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
-200
10
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(-200); Under

NY Yankees @ Tampa Bay

Game 971-972
May 10, 2019 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Yankees
(German) 16.350
Tampa Bay
(Glasnow) 14.981
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Yankees
by 1 1/2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
-155
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Yankees
(+135); Under

Miami @ NY Mets

Game 953-954
May 10, 2019 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
(Lopez) 13.997
NY Mets
(Wheeler) 14.952
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Mets
by 1
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Mets
-180
7
Dunkel Pick:
NY Mets
(-180); Under

Detroit @ Minnesota

Game 973-974
May 10, 2019 @ 8:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
(Ross) 16.128
Minnesota
(Odorizzi) 14.572
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
y 1 1/2
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
-220
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+190); Over

Texas @ Houston

Game 975-976
May 10, 2019 @ 8:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Texas
(Lynn) 16.372
Houston
(Verlnder) 17.343
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 1
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
-245
8
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-245); Over

Pittsburgh @ St. Louis

Game 955-956
May 10, 2019 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
(Williams) 15.696
St. Louis
(Wainwrght) 14.777
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
St. Louis
-150
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(+130); Under

Philadelphia @ Kansas City

Game 979-980
May 10, 2019 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
(Arrieta) 15.841
Kansas City
(Bailey) 16.902
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
-145
9 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(+125); Under

San Diego @ Colorado

Game 957-958
May 10, 2019 @ 8:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Diego
(Lauer) 16.150
Colorado
(Marquez) 14.639
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego
by 1 1/2
17
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Colorado
-170
10
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
(+150); Over

Cleveland @ Oakland

Game 977-978
May 10, 2019 @ 9:37 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
(Andrson) 12.746
Oakland
(Montas) 15.259
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 2 1/2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
-160
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(-160); Under

Atlanta @ Arizona

Game 959-960
May 10, 2019 @ 9:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
(Teheran) 14.068
Arizona
(Greinke) 15.585
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 1 1/2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
-130
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(-130); Under

Washington @ LA Dodgers

Game 961-962
May 10, 2019 @ 10:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
(Sanchez) 14.835
LA Dodgers
(Maeda) 16.337
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 1 1/2
10
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-190
8
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
(-190); Over

Cincinnati @ San Francisco

Game 963-964
May 10, 2019 @ 10:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
(Castillo) 14.698
San Francisco
(Rdriguez) 16.108
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 1 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
-160
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+140); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

974 MINNESOTA TWINS -1.5 -105
Tigers are 3-11 since Apr 11, 2019 as a dog
Twins are 29-10 since Jun 24, 2018 as a home favorite
Twins are 36-18 since Sep 11, 2018
Twins are 77-44 since Aug 06, 2017 at home

976 HOUSTON ASTROS -1.5 -110
Rangers are 2-8 since Apr 22, 2019 as a dog
Rangers are 10-28 since Aug 11, 2018 as a road dog
Rangers are 11-29 since Aug 11, 2018 on the road
Astros are 26-10 since Sep 01, 2018 at home
Astros are 26-10 since Sep 01, 2018 as a home favorite

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chicago Cubs -124
Cubs are (14-3) in their last 17 vs team with a winning record
Cubs are (44-19) in their last 63 home games vs left-handed starter
Cubs are (5-0) in Quintana's last 5 starts
Cubs are (20-6) in Quintana's last 26 home starts

Boston Red Sox (-1½) -105
Mariners are (4-13) in their last 17 games following a loss
Mariners are (0-5) in their last 5 games vs left-handed starter
Rodriguez is (19-4) in night games over the last 2 seasons (Team's Record)
Red Sox are (21-6) in Rodriguez's last 27 home starts

Minnesota Twins (-1½) -115
Tigers are (21-50) in their last 71 road games vs right-handed starter
Twins are (25-10) in their last 35 games vs right-handed starter
Twins are (9-2) in Odorizzi's last 11 home starts
Twins are (4-0) in Odorizzi's last 4 starts vs Tigers

Houston Astros (-1½) -125
Rangers are (17-36) in their last 53 road games
Rangers are (5-14) in their last 19 road games vs right-handed starter
Astros are (60-24) in their last 84 home games vs right-handed starter
Astros are (6-1) in Verlander's last 7 home starts

Philadelphia Phillies -149
Arrieta is (27-7) as a road favorite of -125 to -175 (Team's Record)
Bailey is (1-15) after a loss over the last 2 seasons (Team's Record)
Bailey is (1-15) vs team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons (Team's Record)
Royals are (14-43) in their last 57 vs team with a winning record

San Diego Padres +154
Padres are (13-3) in their last 16 games following an off day
Padres are (11-4) in their last 15 road games vs right-handed starter
Padres are (4-1) in Lauer's last 5 road starts
Rockies are (1-6) in their last 7 home games vs left-handed starter

Cleveland Indians/Oakland Athletics over (8½) -115
Over is (7-0) in Anderson's last 7 starts vs team with a losing record
Over is (11-3) in Anderson's last 14 starts overall
Over is (20-8) in Athletics last 28 on grass
Over is (9-3) in Athletics last 12 vs team with a winning record

Cincinnati Reds -145
Reds are (7-2) in Castillo's last 9 starts during game 1 of a series
Giants are (0-7) in their last 7 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days
Giants are (1-5) in Rodriguez's last 6 starts during game 1 of a series
Giants are (1-10) in Rodriguez's last 11 home starts

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Trends - Friday
Vince Akins

SU Play ON Trend of the Day:

-- The Rockies are 18-0 SU as a 140+ favorite off a home game in which they hit at least one home run.

SU Play AGAINST Trend of the Day:

-- The Rangers are 0-16 SU off a road game in which their opponent left more than 16 men on base.

Batter-Based Trend of the Day:

-- The Rockies are 13-0 SU as a home favorite after Trevor Story had multiple hits.

Starter-Based Trend of the Day:

-- The Rockies are 14-0 SU with German Marquez as a favorite of more than 110 when they used five-plus pitchers yesterday, winning by an average of 6.36 runs per game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Game 6 - Warriors at Rockets
Chris David

Western Conference Semifinals – Game 6 (Warriors lead 3-2)

Golden State at Houston (ESPN, 9:00 p.m. ET)

The NBA Playoffs will have at least two Game 7’s on tap this Sunday and if Houston can avoid elimination tonight to Golden State, then bettors will be looking at three decisive matchups over the weekend.

The Warriors took a 3-2 lead in this series after capturing a 104-99 win in Game 5 on Wednesday but that victory turned out to be bitter sweet for the two-time defending champions.

The club lost All-Star Kevin Durant to a calf injury late in the third quarter and it was announced yesterday that he’ll miss tonight’s game and a possible Game 7 on Sunday as well. Durant has been out of this world in the playoffs, averaging 34.2 points per game, 5.2 rebounds and 4.9 assists while shooting 51 percent from the field, 42 percent from 3-point land and 90 percent from the free-throw stripe. In a nutshell, he’s been unstoppable.

NBA expert Tony Mejia considers the diagnosis of a calf strain instead of something far more significant a fabulous break for Kevin Durant and anyone holding a Warriors’ ticket on any futures. Although the Eastern Conference champ would be a major obstacle to overcome without Durant’s length, Golden State’s familiarity with its West foes should aid its cause in buying the two-time Finals MVP time to recover.

“The Warriors won’t win a championship without Durant but can get out of the Western Conference without him if they can get out of this series,” Mejia said. “Golden State won three of four games without him during the regular season, losing only in Orlando (96-103) on Feb. 28 after blowing a double-digit fourth-quarter lead. The Dubs scored just 15 points against the Magic over the final 12 minutes as they fell victim to Orlando’s length, but they defeated the Rockets (106-104) and Thunder (110-88) without Durant in March and obviously thrived and survived a crucial fourth quarter without him on Wednesday.”

“DeMarcus Cousins scored 27 points and hit 11 of 16 shots in imposing his will in that win over Houston, so the Warriors won’t be able to follow the same blueprint without Durant, but Klay Thompson scored 30 in that win and must factor heavily in stealing a Game 6 in Houston or surviving an elimination game back at Oracle on Sunday. Thompson is going to face a heavy workload as one of the primary defenders on Harden in addition to a larger load on the offensive end, so it’s vital that he stay out of foul trouble and engaged.”

“Even though Stephen Curry has shot just 26 percent from 3-point range (15-for-57) in this series, a more defined role as the catalyst makes him worth backing in any individual player props involving his scoring total,” Mejia said. “His high for this postseason is 38 points, attained back in Game 1 of the first round against the Clippers, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he posts only his second 40-point game since February if he can get it going early.”

As Mejia mentioned, the 3-1 record without Durant in the regular season was produced on the road and the unlikely win over Houston was impressive. Cousins not only went for 27 but he added eight rebounds and seven assists too while the ‘Splash Brothers’ (Curry & Thompson) combined for 54 in the win. Since Cousins was lost in the first round of this year’s playoffs, it makes you wonder who could possibly step up for the Warriors on Friday without the big man and KD.

Under the assumption that KD was ‘doubtful’ for Game 6, the oddsmakers opened Houston as a 7 ½-point home favorite and that line has held steady after his status was downgraded to ‘out.’

Are bettors still doubting the Rockets? If the game was on the road, you can certainly see why but the recent trends from the Toyota Center all lean to Houston. Mike D’Antoni and company have gone 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread in this year’s playoffs at home and since the head coach arrived in 2016, the team is 17-6 SU and 12-11 ATS in the postseason as hosts.

While those numbers are solid, NBA expert Kevin Rogers dug into them further and you could be pumping the brakes on Houston tonight.

He explained, “The Rockets own an 0-3 record both SU and ATS in the last three playoff games when facing elimination since 2016. Two of those losses came at Toyota Center, including a 114-75 drubbing at the hands of the Spurs as nine-point favorites in Game 6 of the 2017 second round.”

Of the six losses that Houston has had under D’Antonio at home in the playoffs, three of them came to Golden State and that includes the 101-92 loss in Game 7 of last year’s Western Conference Finals.

Rogers noted, “The Warriors have wrapped up each of their last three postseason series away from Oracle Arena, all victories by nine points or more. Granted, Golden State is without Durant, but under Steve Kerr, the Warriors have not lost three road playoff games in a series dating back to 2015.”

As an underdog, Golden State has gone 3-5 SU and 4-4 ATS this season, which includes the Game 3 setback (126-121) to Houston (-3.5) in this series. Since Kerr took over the coaching duties in 2014, the Warriors have been listed as underdogs eight times in the playoffs. The club has gone 4-4 both SU and ATS while the totals have also gone 4-4. Friday’s line is the largest amount of points that Golden State has ever received in the postseason with Kerr on the sidelines.

The total on Game 6 opened at 210 but has been pushed up to 214. The ‘over’ has gone 3-2 in the first five games of this series and that includes both games going high in Houston. The Rockets have been averaging 115.8 PPG at home in the playoffs. In the four games without KD this season, the Warriors averaged 104 PPG while only allowing 99.5 PPG. Not surprisingly, the ‘under’ went 4-0 in those contests.

From a futures perspective, Golden State was the odds-on 5/7 favorite (Bet $100 to win $71) to pull off the “Three-peat” and capture this year’s NBA Finals prior to the Game 5 victory. As of this morning, the Warriors are now a 5/4 (Bet $100 to win $125) betting choice to win the title.

The series price still has Golden State (-185) listed as a favorite but the return on Houston (+160) was adjusted.

If necessary Game 7 will take place on Sunday from Oracle Arena and if that happens, it will be the first time since 2014 that the NBA Playoffs will have three Game 7’s on the same day.