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GUARANTEED! 5% NBA MAX BET
Game: (547) Golden State Warriors at (548) Portland Trail Blazers
Date/Time: May 18 2019 9:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Portland Trail Blazers -2.5 (-110)
View Analysis
9:05 PM ET -- NBA
547 Golden State Warriors
548 Portland Trail Blazers
PLAY: 548 PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS -2.5 (-110)
BET SIZE: 5%
DB's THOUGHTS:
Portland let one get away in Game 2, blowing a 17-point lead and losing 114-111 in Oakland. "We stole that game," Warriors coach Steve Kerr told reporters. "I thought they outplayed us for much of the night, the majority of the night..." Portland may not have won that game, but its performance did two things. One, it gave them confidence heading into Game 3. Secondly, the 0-2 hole creates a great sense of urgency to get a W tonight.
The Warriors will still be without KD. Twice before they've been an underdog in Game 3 of a playoff series after winning the first two games at home. They lost both times and failed to cover as well, losing by 30 to the Cavaliers in Cleveland in the NBA Finals on 6/8/16, and losing in OT to the Rockets 126-121 in Houston two weeks ago today.
The Blazers should also get the benefit of some friendly whistles now that they're back home. I'm figuring this will be the most Blazers-friendly officiating we will see in this series.
Keep an eye on Damian Lillard. Lillard was just 3-for-17 in Game 7 of the Denver series, and only 10-for-28 so far in this series. I expect Lillard to finally get untracked tonight on his home court.
Portland owns a 129-107 home win over the Warriors this season (2/13/19) when GS had all hands on deck. I see no reason why the Blazers won't step up at home tonight against the Durant-less Warriors and deliver a solid win to temporarily get back into this series
MINNESOTA @ SEATTLE | 5/18 | 10:10 PM EDT
2:10 AM
The Twins' four-game winning streak and the Mariners' recent slump have inflated Seattle's price here to more than it should be. Minnesota starter Jose Berrios (6-2) is coming off his worst game of the season, allowing a career-high 12 hits in 5.2 innings to the Angels. He is 1-2 in three career starts against Seattle. My model has the Mariners winning this game 56 percent of the time, making this money line a strong value.
58-35 IN LAST 93 MLB PICKS | +2307
15-6 IN LAST 21 MIN ML PICKS | +961
OAKLAND -114
OAKLAND @ DETROIT | 5/18 | 4:10 PM EDT
1:52 AM
The A's have amazingly beaten the Tigers 14 straight times, a streak that dates to May 2017. The past two games, however, are the most relevant. Oakland has pounded Detroit 24-5 over the past two nights, continuing the Tigers pitching woes. In the last 10 games, Detroit has a 7.57 ERA. My model says that the A's win this game 69 percent of the time, giving this money line a strong value. Take Oakland to make it 15 straight.
58-35 IN LAST 93 MLB PICKS | +2307
17-8 IN LAST 25 OAK ML PICKS | +882
16-8 IN LAST 24 DET ML PICKS | +758
PHILADELPHIA -176
COLORADO @ PHILADELPHIA | 5/18 | 4:05 PM EDT
1:38 AM
After a slow start to the season, the Phillies' Aaron Nola has pitched better recently. In his last four starts, he has a 2.53 ERA. Meanwhile, less than a month ago, Philadelphia beat Colorado's Antonio Senzatela, scoring four runs on seven hits in 6.0 innings in an 8-5 win. My model says the Phillies win 74 percent of the time, so they're still strong value at this price. Ride with Philly.
58-35 IN LAST 93 MLB PICKS | +2307
35-19 IN LAST 54 COL ML PICKS | +1795
MILWAUKEE @ ATLANTA | 5/18 | 7:15 PM EDT
12:11 PM
The market is quite efficient on this game today, but I'm still going to play the Brewers as I have a few things that I like about the way the Brewers matchup with Gausman's pitch frequencies. Milwaukee is winning exactly 50 percent of simulations in my model.
6-4 IN LAST 10 MLB PICKS | +143
12-6 IN LAST 18 MIL ML PICKS | +705
OAKLAND -117
OAKLAND @ DETROIT | 5/18 | 4:10 PM EDT
12:08 PM
Matt Boyd is getting a lot of respect here against a team that is built to hit left-handed pitching. Mengden is a high variance player but this Tigers lineup projects to strikeout just enough that I'm comfortable with my ratings on this play. I have Oakland winning 57 percent of simulations against Matt Boyd.
6-4 IN LAST 10 MLB PICKS | +143
4-0 IN LAST 4 DET ML PICKS | +400
4-2 IN LAST 6 OAK ML PICKS | +166
L.A. DODGERS -152
L.A. DODGERS @ CINCINNATI | 5/18 | 4:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:14 PM
Tyler Mahle has been very good at times this season, but I'm not ready to give him the respect the rest of the market appears to be willing to give. I have the Dodgers winning 62 percent of simulations behind Walker Buehler. This Dodgers lineup is just too good against right-handed pitching in such a strong hitting environment.
6-4 IN LAST 10 MLB PICKS | +143
4-1 IN LAST 5 LAD ML PICKS | +382
5-Unit Play. Take #977 Minnesota (-130) over Seattle (10 p.m., Saturday, May 18)
Minnesota has won the first two games of this series easily. They should get the third straight win tonight. They have already outscored the Mariners 18-7 in this series and this team is on fire. The Twins have won four straight and they are 9-3 in their last 12 games. Minnesota is 36-16 in their last 52 games overall and they are 12-0 in their last 12 games against a team that is below .500. The Twins are going with their ace starter, Jose Berrios today. He has won five of six starts overall and has a solid 1.08 WHIP and 3.05 ERA this season. The Twins are 7-2 in his nine starts. I think they will take care of business here and keep it going.
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