Wednesday 5-15-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Trends - Wednesday
Vince Akins

SU Play ON Trend of the Day:

-- The Nationals are 15-0 SU as a 140+ favorite off a game as a dog in which they drew one or fewer walks.

SU Play AGAINST Trend of the Day:

-- The Angels are 0-13 SU as a dog in the last game of a road series vs a team with a better record.

Batter-Based Trend of the Day:

-- The Nationals are 9-0 SU as a home favorite off a home game in which Adam Eaton was hitless in at least three at bats.

Starter-Based Trend of the Day:

-- The Astros are 16-0 SU in franchise history with Justin Verlander on the road when he averaged more than four pitches per batter in his last start.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Dunkel

Wednesday, May 15


LA Angels @ Minnesota

Game 913-914
May 15, 2019 @ 1:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Angels
(Cahill) 15.750
Minnesota
(Odorizzi) 14.749
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Angels
by 1
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
-150
9
Dunkel Pick:
LA Angels
(+130); Over

Baltimore @ NY Yankees

Game 927-928
May 15, 2019 @ 3:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
(Hess) 14.628
NY Yankees
(Happ) 17.313
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Yankees
by 2 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Yankees
-255
9
Dunkel Pick:
NY Yankees
(-255); Under

Pittsburgh @ Arizona

Game 901-902
May 15, 2019 @ 3:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
(Archer) 15.864
Arizona
(Greinke) 14.348
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 1 1/2
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
-155
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(+135); Over

Toronto @ San Francisco

Game 921-922
May 15, 2019 @ 3:45 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
(Jackson) 14.672
San Francisco
(Andrson) 13.208
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 1 1/2
14
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
-120
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
( +100); Over

Baltimore @ NY Yankees

Game 915-916
May 15, 2019 @ 6:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
(Cashner) 14.493
NY Yankees
(German) 17.409
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Yankees
by 3
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Yankees
-240
9
Dunkel Pick:
NY Yankees
(-240); Under

Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati

Game 903-904
May 15, 2019 @ 6:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago Cubs
(Darvish) 15.282
Cincinnati
(Gray) 16.606
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 1 1/2
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
-115
9
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(-115); Under

Milwaukee @ Philadelphia

Game 905-906
May 15, 2019 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Milwaukee
(Gonzalez) 15.772
Philadelphia
(Arrieta) 17.230
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 1 1/2
10
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
-125
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-125); Over

NY Mets @ Washington

Game 907-908
May 15, 2019 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Mets
(Font) 16.022
Washington
(Corbin) 14.024
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Mets
by 2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
-170
8
Dunkel Pick:
NY Mets
(+150); Under

Colorado @ Boston

Game 925-926
May 15, 2019 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Colorado
(Marquez) 17.850
Boston
(Rdriguez) 16.343
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Colorado
by 1 1/2
16
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
-140
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Colorado
(+120); Over

Tampa Bay @ Miami

Game 923-924
May 15, 2019 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
(Stanek) 15.350
Miami
(Urena) 12.980
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 2 1/2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
-175
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(-175); Under

Houston @ Detroit

Game 917-918
May 15, 2019 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
(Verlnder) 19.289
Detroit
(Soto) 13.709
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 5 1/2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
-320
9 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-320); Under

St. Louis @ Atlanta

Game 909-910
May 15, 2019 @ 7:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
St. Louis
(Wacha) 16.264
Atlanta
(Soroka) 12.751
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
St. Louis
by 3 1/2
12
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
-140
9
Dunkel Pick:
St. Louis
(+120); Over

Texas @ Kansas City

Game 919-920
May 15, 2019 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Texas
(Minor) 14.169
Kansas City
(Lopez) 15.671
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 1 1/2
14
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Texas
-135
9
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(+115); Over

San Diego @ LA Dodgers

Game 911-912
May 15, 2019 @ 10:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Diego
(Strahm) 14.582
LA Dodgers
(Maeda) 17.053
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 2 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-155
8
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
(-155); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Nationals are 15-0 SU as a 140+ favorite off a
game as a dog in which they drew one or fewer walks.

The Angels are 0-13 SU as a dog in the last game of a
road series vs a team with a better record.

The Nationals are 9-0 SU as a home favorite off a
home game in which Adam Eaton was hitless in at
least three at bats.

The Astros are 16-0 SU in franchise history with Justin
Verlander on the road when he averaged more than
four pitches per batter in his last start.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

G1 - Raptors at Bucks
Tony Mejia

Eastern Conference Finals – Game 1

No. 2 Toronto at No. 1 Milwaukee (-6/217.5), TNT, 8:30 p.m. ET

Jan. 31 – Bucks (+2.5) 105 at Raptors 92 (Under 232)
Jan. 5 – Raptors (+5.5) 123 at Bucks 116 (Over 227)
Dec. 9 – Bucks (+5) 104 at Raptors 99 (Under 229.5)
Oct. 29 – Bucks (+2) 124 vs. Raptors 109 (Over 222.5)

When the season began, the Bucks were a 14-to-1 choice to win the Eastern Conference per Westgate, while the Raptors were the second choice at 2-to-1, just behind the favored Celtics (4-to-5).

See, the NBA isn’t entirely predictable.

Milwaukee was 60-to-1 to win it all when the regular season began but was down to just 5-to-1 when the playoffs opened. They were 4-to-5 to win the East while the Raptors were 3-to-1 to win the conference and 14-to-1 to win a title.

Boston and Philadelphia have been defeated, leaving the top seeds in the East to vie for the right to try and spoil Golden State’s threepeat bid.

If you’re holding one of those Bucks futures’ from October, you’re counting on the continued blossoming of likely MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, who will be tasked with helping deny Toronto its first NBA Finals appearance by slowing down Kawhi Leonard.

With Warriors star Kevin Durant on the mend for at least another few days, the top forwards remaining in the playoffs will square off to decide a champion in the Eastern Conference in the type of duel we haven’t seen since Durant denied LeBron James a second title with Cleveland before leaving for L.A. James has faced off with Leonard and Paul George, while Durant has also tangled with Anthony Davis. This playoff matchup between the “Greek Freak” and Leonard, who is coming off authoring the first series-clinching buzzer-beater in a Game 7 in NBA history, is on that level.

Two of the best basketball players who have ever lived, Hall of Fame types who are still writing their story, are about to treat us to a show. They won’t directly be defending one another for 40-plus minutes, but they should be in the picture coming over to help, be it to shade or blitz, and their length and defensive IQ will make for intense interactions.

Antetokounmpo and his supporting cast, which also features All-Star Khris Middleton and point guard Eric Bledsoe, comes in as a -330 favorite over Toronto, which will get you +260 if you want to party with the underdog. Leonard has been incredible this postseason, averaging 31.8 points, but it remains to be seen if he can get enough help from Pascal Siakam, Kyle Lowry, Marc Gasol and Danny Green after narrowly surviving the younger, banged-up 76ers despite minimal contributions from the bench.

With Malcolm Brogdon back in the mix after missing most of the past few months due to a plantar fascia tear in his right foot, the Bucks have a much deeper group, homecourt advantage and the edge in coaching given the work Mike Budenholzer has done in his first season in Milwaukee. Nick Nurse, an assistant with past Raptors teams in his first season in the head seat, may be overmatched here. Not being able to rely on Fred VanVleet to be productive and going barely seven-deep in his rotation ties his hands significantly.

Riding Raptors’ futures for value’s sake carries the risk that they’ll be unable to steal a game at the new Fiserv Forum after such a physical, taxing series against the 76ers, which means you would be better off waiting until they get back home for a Game 3 since the odds would be even better if they’re down 2-0. The Bucks have been off since eliminating the Celtics last Tuesday after a 116-91 rout, their seventh double-digit win this postseason. The team that led the league in wins, points per game and margin of victory should have fresh legs in addition to a homecourt edge giving them a significant Game 1 advantage.

“Backing the Bucks in the playoffs has been easy money with Milwaukee covering the spread in all eight of its victories, “ said NBA expert Kevin Rogers. “Only one of those wins came by less than 10 points, which was Game 3 of the Boston series, 123-116. The Raptors haven’t been listed as an underdog many times this season, as Toronto has cashed in 10 of 16 opportunities when receiving points. Toronto won at Golden State as 7 ½-point underdogs in in mid-December, 113-93, but Leonard didn’t suit up in losses in the 6 to 6 ½-point ‘dog range at Indiana and Philadelphia.”

The Bucks’ lone playoff loss to date came at home in the series opener against the Celtics, but they’re looking to avoid a repeat since they’ve been a united chorus over the past few days preaching the importance of capturing Game 1 because rallying against Toronto would be far more difficutt than it was against Boston. Milwaukee is providing no bulletin board material, going the extra mile in buttering up the competition. Bledsoe hinted Lowry would be a future Hall-of-Famer. Budenholzer is doing whatever he can to drill it into his Bucks that they must capture these early home games to snuff out confidence and avoid going into a difficult venue tied, having surrendered the homecourt advantage they worked so hard to get during a 60-win regular season.

That includes winning the head-to-head series 3-1. Milwaukee outscored the Raptors by an average of 112.3-105.8 and held it to just 42 percent shooting while knocking down 47 percent of its shots. The Bucks won twice in Toronto, which is especially impressive since the Raptors finished 32-9 at Scotiabank Arena, the third-best home mark behind the Nuggets (34-7) and the Bucks (33-8). Being able to take care of business in front of the paying customers will go a long way in deciding this series.

Antetokonmpo averaged 27 points, 15 rebounds and five assists while shooting 58.5 percent from the field in three games against Toronto this season. Leonard shot just 42.6 percent from the field in his three games against the Bucks, averaging 22 points, 7.7 boards and four assists. Lowry struggled mightily in his three matchups with the Bucks, shooting just 23.3 percent from the field while averaging 6.3 points and 8.3 assists. The Raptors were much better when he looked in sync against the 76ers, so his ability to effectively deal with Bledsoe and Brogdon, physical defenders who have a size advantage, will go a long way in dictating how effective Toronto can be as an underdog.

The total for Game 1 opened at 218 and the number has been pushed down to 217 as of Wednesday. VegasInsider.com totals expert Chris David offered up his thoughts on the number and his top wager.

“During the regular season, we saw the total results finish in a 2-2 stalemate between the pair but the two games played in Milwaukee went ‘over’ while the ‘under’ was 2-0 in the games played at Scotiabank Arena. Surprisingly, the Raptors offense was much better away from home versus the Bucks as they averaged 116 PPG in two trips to Wisconsin,” David said. “Expecting the Raptors to get near that number in this series could be wishful thinking based on what we’ve seen from their offense (100.4 PPG) in five road playoff games. The ‘under’ went 4-1 in those games and the lone ‘over’ barely connected in Game 6 at Philadelphia.

“For Game 1, it’s apparent that the oddsmakers are expecting less offense knowing that the four regular season games had totals ranging from 222 ½ to 232. It’s hard to argue with the opening total knowing that Toronto’s defense has been lights out in the playoffs (96 PPG), but this will easily be its toughest test. Milwaukee led the league in scoring (118 PPG) and its numbers at home (119.2 PPG) have been off the charts, plus Budenholzer’s squad hasn’t been slowed down in the postseason. In five playoff games at home, the Bucks have averaged 120 PPG in their four wins and were held to 90 points in the Game 1 loss to the Celtics in the conference semifinals and you could argue that the effort versus Boston was due to a six-day layoff. I believe Milwaukee will be ready to go on Wednesday and my strongest lean for Game 1 would be on the Bucks Team Total Over (111 ½).”

Nikola Mirotic is expected to remain in Milwaukee’s starting lineup in order to help spread the floor, but that could leave the Bucks vulnerable on the defensive end. Middleton slumped late in the Bucks series but is shooting nearly 47 percent from 3-point range in these playoffs. With Brogdon back, George Hill producing and the Raps’ depth being issue, operating at a faster pace may benefit host Milwaukee in this opener. Backing the first-quarter to go ‘over’ 54 is highly recommended. The Bucks should be at full strength. Toronto has multiple guys hurting, but it could get a boost towards the end of this series with talented, versatile forward OG Anunoby nearing a return from an emergency appendectomy.

Game 2 will be played Thursday night in downtown Milwaukee.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

531Toronto -532 Milwaukee
TORONTO is 108-147 ATS (-53.7 Units) in road games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA
Dunkel

Wednesday, May 15

Toronto @ Milwaukee

Game 531-532
May 15, 2019 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
122.059
Milwaukee
131.145
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Milwaukee
by 9
201
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
by 6 1/2
218
Dunkel Pick:
Milwaukee
(-6 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA
Long Sheet

Wednesday, May 15

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORONTO (66 - 28) at MILWAUKEE (68 - 23) - 5/15/2019, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games after allowing 90 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 211-267 ATS (-82.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 55-33 ATS (+18.7 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 46-30 ATS (+13.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
MILWAUKEE is 27-18 ATS (+7.2 Units) in home games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all playoff games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 30-18 ATS (+10.2 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
MILWAUKEE is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MILWAUKEE is 45-28 ATS (+14.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
MILWAUKEE is 27-17 ATS (+8.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
MILWAUKEE is 44-26 ATS (+15.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
MILWAUKEE is 25-15 ATS (+8.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
MILWAUKEE is 68-112 ATS (-55.2 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 9-8 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 10-7 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
9 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Wednesday, May 15

Toronto won a dramatic Game 7 Sunday; Milwaukee hasn’t played since Wednesday. Road side won seven of last ten Toronto-Milwaukee games; Raptors won/covered four of last five visits to Wisconsin. Five of last seven series games went over. Toronto won three of last five road games; under is 7-3 in their last ten games overall. Milwaukee won its last four games in last round, scoring 118.8 ppg; they covered four of their last five home games. Over is 5-3 in their last eight games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Wednesday, May 15

Trend Report

Toronto Raptors
Toronto is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Toronto is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Toronto's last 13 games
Toronto is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games on the road
Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
Toronto is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing Milwaukee
Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games when playing Milwaukee
Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Toronto's last 9 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Milwaukee is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Milwaukee's last 16 games
Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
Milwaukee is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 7 games when playing Toronto
Milwaukee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
Milwaukee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 9 games when playing at home against Toronto

[Can'tPickAWinner]

13San Jose -14 St Louis
ST LOUIS are 20-5 ATS (15.3 Units) against good passing teams - averaging 5 or more assists per game in the 2nd half of the year in the current season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Wednesday, May 15

Trend Report

San Jose Sharks
San Jose is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games
San Jose is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
San Jose is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
San Jose is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Jose's last 8 games when playing St. Louis
San Jose is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Jose's last 7 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
St. Louis Blues
St. Louis is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
St. Louis is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
St. Louis is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
St. Louis is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of St. Louis's last 8 games when playing San Jose
St. Louis is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against San Jose
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 7 games when playing at home against San Jose

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL
Dunkel

Wednesday, May 15

San Jose @ St. Louis

Game 13-14
May 15, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Jose
12.413
St. Louis
10.943
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Jose
by 1 1/2
4
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
St. Louis
-145
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Jose
(+125); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL
Long Sheet

Wednesday, May 15

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN JOSE (55-33-0-10, 120 pts.) at ST LOUIS (54-33-0-10, 118 pts.) - 5/15/2019, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 39-21 ATS (+7.9 Units) second half of the season this season.
ST LOUIS is 33-22 ATS (+4.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ST LOUIS is 21-10 ATS (+10.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
SAN JOSE is 226-241 ATS (+509.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
ST LOUIS is 17-22 ATS (-14.9 Units) in home games after a win by 2 goals or more over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 6-5 (+1.5 Units) against the spread versus SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 6-5-0 straight up against SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+3.5 Units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

R and R Totals

MLB

MILWAUKEE BREWERS/PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES ‑115 u9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DONNY ACTION

MLB

CINCINNATI REDS ‑125