Thursday 5-23-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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NBA

Thursday, May 23

Home side won all four series games; Raptors are 2-3 in last five visits to Milwaukee- over is 7-3 in last ten series games. Toronto’s bench outscored the Bucks’ subs 48-23 in Game 4, allowing Leonard to do less, which is good. Powell/VanVleet/Ibaka were combined +78 in 81:37. Now the question is, can Raptors do it on road? Toronto lost four of last five road games (under 3-2). Milwaukee won/covered its last four home games, winning by average of 19 points. Underdogs covered eight of last 11 series games.

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NBA

Thursday, May 23

Trend Report

Toronto Raptors
Toronto is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Toronto is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games
Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Toronto's last 8 games on the road
Toronto is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Milwaukee
Toronto is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Toronto's last 11 games when playing Milwaukee
Toronto is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games
Milwaukee is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Milwaukee's last 20 games
Milwaukee is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Toronto
Milwaukee is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Milwaukee's last 11 games when playing Toronto
Milwaukee is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto

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G5 - Raptors at Bucks
Tony Mejia

Eastern Conference Finals – Game 5 -- Series tied 2-2

No. 2 Toronto at No. 1 Milwaukee (-7/216.5), TNT, 8:30 p.m. ET

May 21 – Raptors (+3, +135) 120 vs. Bucks 102 (Over 217.5)
May 19 – Raptors (-2) 118 vs. Bucks 112, 2OT (Over 221.5)
May 17 – Bucks (-6.5) 125 vs. Raptors 103 (Over 219)
May 15 – Bucks (-6.5) 108 vs. Raptors 100 (Under 218)

Jan. 31 – Bucks (+2.5) 105 at Raptors 92 (Under 232)
Jan. 5 – Raptors (+5.5) 123 at Bucks 116 (Over 227)
Dec. 9 – Bucks (+5) 104 at Raptors 99 (Under 229.5)
Oct. 29 – Bucks (+2) 124 vs. Raptors 109 (Over 222.5)

It wasn’t all that stunning that the Raptors got even at home against the Bucks on Tuesday night.

Toronto was one of the NBA’s top home teams, finishing in a tie for third with its 32-9 mark in its gym. Although both the Magic and 76ers got a game up at ScotiaBank Arena, each team saw their season end there. Game 3 saw the Bucks fight gamely, but ultimately fall short in double-overtime as their inconsistent shooting finally proved too much to overcome.

The surprising part about the Eastern Conference finals entering a Game 5 at 2-2 revolves around how Toronto managed to notch things up, putting together its most complete effort of these playoffs in securing a 120-102 result on a night where star forward Kawhi Leonard was off his game, visibly hampered by a nagging quad injury.

Everyone from the assistant trainer to the PA announcer to super fan Drake stepped up.

Kyle Lowry finished with a team-high 25 points, his second-largest output of this postseason, setting the tone early by attacking. Marc Gasol had a team-high seven assists, finishing with 17 points and knocking down three 3-pointers. Serge Ibaka relieved him and delivered 17 points and 13 rebounds in 24 minutes, while Norman Powell came in and ultimately fired up 13 shots from beyond the arc, knocking down four and often finding himself on the business end of a wide-open look as the Raptors manipulated Milwaukee’s defense with their ball movement.

Backup point guard Fred VanVleet hit five of six shots after entering Tuesday’s game 4-for-20 in the series, which was an improvement on shooting 12.9 percent in the 76ers series.

Toronto looked capable of winning a championship in Game 4, showing off its skill, length and depth.

Whether it can sustain that excellence remains to be seen, especially since the Eastern Conference finals shift back to Milwaukee, where the Bucks have only lost once in these playoffs and posted the top home record (33-8) in the East, finishing only behind Denver (34-7) in the entire NBA.

Depth was expected to be a major asset for the Raptors, but then the playoffs arrive and VanVleet and Ibaka went into a shell. Powell has been hit-or-miss and Nick Nurse has committed to solely using an eight-man rotation, so that perceived edge went out the window. No one who watched Toronto overcome Philadelphia’s talent would doubt the Magic of Leonard, but he’s clearly not 100 percent after aggravating a leg injury in the first half of Game 3. Considering he’s averaging 38.4 minutes per playoff game and has logged the fourth-most miles per game this postseason, per Second Spectrum, it’s unlikely he’ll be even 75 percent again in this series given the venue changes going forward before an Eastern Conference champion is decided.

Despite dominating the Bucks on Tuesday, the line opened with Milwaukee as a 6.5-to-7-point favorite. VegasInsider.com NBA expert Kevin Rogers points out that this critical swing game in a series has historically been a rough one for teams coming out of the visiting locker room, particularly this season.

“Backing the home team in Game 5 of the playoffs with the series tied at 2-2 has been money in the bank in 2019. Home squads in this situation are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS this postseason,” Rogers said. “The Warriors failing to cash as six-point favorites in a five-point win over the Rockets in the second round is the lone non-cover. Dating back to the start of the 2018 playoffs, home teams have won 10 straight Game 5’s with a series tied at 2-2, including five victories by 10 points or more.”

Milwaukee led the league in point differential this season and have managed to cover all 10 times it has walked off the floor a winner in these playoffs, but we’re about to find out whether it has the mental fortitude to overcome adversity. If you believe the Bucks have the talent to dethrone the Warriors, you’re going to need to see how they respond to their first losing streak since March 4. This is only the second time they’ve dropped consecutive games this season and they didn’t lose a third in a row, rebounding to blow out the Pacers at home.

After being the lone team to post 60 victories this season and largely coasting through these playoffs prior to Sunday’s loss, the Bucks are going to be confronted with some tough questions about Giannis Antetokounmpo’s ability to lead a team and adjust to being the focal point of an opposing defense that has been designed to take the ball out of his hands and keep him from getting comfortable. Milwaukee led the NBA in offensive and defensive efficiency this season. In the playoffs, their offensive efficiency prior to going to Toronto was at 113.5, while their defensive efficiency was 98.4 for a league-best differential of +15.1.

In their losses to the Raptors, their offensive efficiency registered at 99.1, while their defensive number came in at 110.2. The Bucks looked like a shell of themselves. Will getting back home change matters the way it did for Toronto? Will we continue to see the Raps figure things out on the offensive end after their second and third-largest scoring output of the postseason?

The ‘over’ is on a 3-1 run in this series and Thursday’s total opened as high as 219 but is now sitting at 216.5 as of Thursday morning. VegasInsider.com totals expert Chris David offered up his thoughts on the number for Game 5.

“I was very surprised that Toronto put up 120 points in Game 4 after coming off a double-overtime victory in Game 3. The Raptors have always been a tough out at home and their ability to avoid the fatigue factor in this series against a deeper team was very impressive. The question I have now is how much gas does Toronto have left in its tank? The oddsmakers aren’t expecting the offense to travel, listing their Team Total at 105 ½ for Game 5 and based on what we’ve seen, you have to agree with them. The Raptors are averaging 100.1 PPG in seven road playoff games this season, and their highest output was 107 in Game 4 at Orlando in the first round,” said David. “If you’re handicapping is going to stick with the home-away tendencies, then I would put more trust in the Bucks offense.

“Milwaukee has averaged 114.7 PPG at the Fiserv Forum in seven games and despite that production, the ‘under’ has gone 4-3 but that’s because the Bucks defense (99 PPG) has been great in those games. Their Team Total is 112 ½ for Game 5 and a close game could certainly keep that number in check. However, this club hasn’t dropped three consecutive losses all season and the one time they did lose two in a row, they rebounded with a clinical 117-98 win at home. I believe Thursday’s outcome will be in the same neighborhood.” If you’re interested on getting in on an exact series price:

7 Games Bucks Win +135
6 Games Bucks Win +175
6 Games Raptors Win +450
7 Games Raptors Win +500

If you’re looking for an x-factor, Bucks point guard Eric Bledsoe may be worth targeting in props since the bar is so low due to his brutal play thus far. The length of Pascal Siakam, who is playing off him and conceding the 3-pointer, has played a major role in keeping him from even getting started. Bledsoe, a borderline All-Star this season, has been terrible in the series, shooting 24 percent from the field and averaging 8.3 points after scoring 16 per game over the first two rounds. He shot 12-for-43 from beyond the arc against the Pistons and Celtics but is just 2-for-19 against the Raptors.

Malcolm Brogdon’s return gave Mike Budenholzer another option alongside George Hill, who has been surprisingly steady in these playoffs, but he shot just 2-for-11 in Game 4. Perhaps getting back home to Fiserv Forum will be the remedy for him as well. Shooters Khris Middleton, Nikola Mirotic, Brook Lopez and Ersan Ilyasova are all capable of making Toronto pay for the extra attention they’re paying to Antetokounmpo, but most of them struggled in Toronto and must rediscover their stroke before they’re put in the first must-win situation of this postseason.

From that standpoint, the Raptors have the edge in experience, having already survived an elimination game against the 76ers, who they also won Game 5 against when that series was tied 2-2. Although Toronto has famously never reached an NBA Finals in franchise history, its leader is a champion.

How effective will Leonard be after another flight and another stretch of steady treatment? Can he continue to make big shots and be a steady force for the Raps’ halfcourt offense? Will he still be able to physically hang with the “Greek Freak,” making him work for everything?

The books are making it awfully easy to back Toronto if you believe Leonard can hold up physically, yet two-thirds of the early public money has come in on the favored Bucks.

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Toronto Raptors vs. Milwaukee Bucks Preview and Predictions 05-23-2019 in NBA

The Toronto Raptors have rallied back to knot the Eastern Conference finals at 2-2 entering Thursday's Game 5 against the host Milwaukee Bucks. Toronto averaged 119 points in back-to-back triumphs on its homecourt, including an impressive 120-102 victory in Tuesday's Game 4.

The Bucks played their worst game of the series in Game 4 and the 2-0 lead they once held has evaporated. "It was disappointing, but I mean, the series is 2-2," Milwaukee small forward Khris Middleton told reporters. "It's not the end of the world. They protect their home court just like we did, and I know the fight is going to be a dogfight. First team to two wins. Can't feel sorry for ourselves that we lost two in a row here. We have to go protect home court and go from there." Toronto coach Nick Nurse is looking for the same type of effort his club displayed in Game 4 as it looks to take the series lead. "Each game is its own entity," Nurse told reporters. "Let's see if ... we can go do it in Milwaukee. We need to take this challenge of playing in a hostile environment, right? We're going into a tough, loud place to play, and let's see if those guys can bring that same pop and focus, determination on the road."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, TNT, TSN (Toronto)

ABOUT THE RAPTORS: Star small forward Kawhi Leonard topped 30 points in each of the first three games of the series but had just 19 in Game 4 while often appearing to be hindered by a left leg injury. "I think he's fine," Nurse said. "He's certainly tired, like a lot of guys in this series are. ... He's got tremendous will. He's got tremendous desire, and there's one time I was trying to give him an extended rest there, and he didn't really want it. So he must be OK." Point guard Kyle Lowry scored 25 points in Game 2 - his second-highest output of the series - while power forward Serge Ibaka played his best game of the series with 17 points and 13 rebounds.

ABOUT THE BUCKS: Point guard Eric Bledsoe has been a nonfactor in the series by averaging 8.3 points and making just 11-of-45 shots. Middleton and Bledsoe each were 3-of-16 from the field in the Game 3 loss but only Middleton (11-of-15) shook it off as Bledsoe (2-of-7) continued to struggle. "We're going to need Bled," Milwaukee coach Mike Budenholzer told reporters. "Eric's been great for us, his defense, his ability to attack. We need him to play better. We need the group (of guards) to play better."

BUZZER BEATERS

1. Raptors reserve swingman Norman Powell is averaging 17 points over the past three contests.

2. Milwaukee star PF Giannis Antetokounmpo had 25 points and 10 rebounds in Game 4 for his fourth straight double-double.

3. Toronto backup PG Fred VanVleet scored 13 points on 5-of-6 shooting in Game 4 after making just 7-of-44 shots over the previous 10 contests.

PREDICTION: Bucks 109, Raptors 106

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Dwayne Connors

Thursday comp play goes out on the Over in Game Five of these Eastern Conference Finals between Toronto and Milwaukee.


The offense is starting to heat up for both teams the longer this series has worn on, as Tuesday's 120-102 Raptors win marked the third straight Over in this series, and also made it 7 of the last 10 in this rivalry having landed Over the total. 4 of the last 5 series showdowns at Fieserv Forum between these East rivals have played Over the total as well.


The Raptors come into this game with 5 of their last 7 postseason games having played Over the total, while the Bucks have landed Over the total this postseason to a tune of 8 of their last 12 dating back to Game Two of their opening round series against the Pistons.


Both teams have found an offensive rhythm, so rather than play against the grain here with an Under, I will stick with the way things have been going and look for our 4th straight series Over in these Eastern Conference Finals.


Toronto-Milwaukee Over the total on Thursday night.

2* TORONTO-MILWAUKEE OVER

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Chris Jordan

I'm on a 15-3 winning run with MLB freebies this season.

My free play for Thursday is another matinee winner for you, as I'm taking the Philadelphia Phillies on the road in their series-finale against the Chicago Cubs.

I know the Cubs are 17-7 in home game this season after winning 8-4 yesterday. But keep in mind this series opened Monday between a pair of division leaders. The Phils are still atop the National League East, but the lead is down to 1 1/2 games over the Atlanta Braves after losing the last two days. Philly has also dipped one game below .500 on the road this season, so there will be a bit of motivation to get out of Wrigley with a win.

In this one, I want you list Philadelphia starter Aaron Nola, as he'll step to the mound at Wrigley Field after matching a career high with 12 strikeouts in his best start of the young campaign, last week against the Colorado Rockies

And be aware, the right-hander's 4.47 ERA is nothing indicative of what he's done of late, with a sterling 2.30 ERA over his last five starts. Plus, Philly rolls into this one with the sixth-best road ERA (3.69) and that could be the difference in this one, because once Nola is done the bullpen will get this win.

I believe he'll be better than Chicago starter Jon Lester, who didn't look like a grizzled veteran when he struggled through a 5-2 loss to the Nationals last Saturday. Lester threw just 4 1/3 innings and allowed five runs.

Play the Phils here, as they get the money before heading home.

3* PHILLIES (Nola over Lester)

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Jack Brayman

My free play for Thursday is on the San Francisco Giants over the Atlanta Braves, and I want you listing Madison Bumgarner and Kevin Gausman.

I love Bumgarner here, as he has the chance to gain some momentum against a team he's dominated over his career. I know he hasn't faced them since 2016, but that doesn't mean his anticipation doesn't grow strong when facing a team like this.

MadBum, who has a 4.21 ERA through 10 starts is 7-3 with a 2.71 ERA in 12 career starts. His ERA in May is 4.07, and just once has he allowed more than three earned runs. Of his four starts, three have been quality this month.

I'm a Gausman fan, but he's not performing like I know he can. The fireballer is in after a tough start against the Milwaukee Brewers on Saturday, when he labored early, then retired 12 of the last 13 batters he faced. He is starting on regular rest again, after serving a suspension for throwing behind Miami's Jose Urena earlier this month. That's truly not like Gausman, so I also tend to wonder if he's in the right environment after starting his career in Baltimore.

Gausman, who is from the Colorado and pitched at LSU, will be an interesting target at the trade deadline, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him playing closer to home in the second half of the season.

Take the Giants and list both.

2* GIANTS (Bumgarner over Gausman)

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Bob Valentino

Thursday free play on the diamond goes from Anaheim where I like the Minnesota Twins and the L.A. Angels to hold Under the total.

True, last night's meeting produced 11 combined runs and an Over, and also true, Halos starter Matt Harvey owns a rather big 6.35 season ERA, but 2 of his last 3 starts, and 5 of his 9 overall starts this season have ended up holding Under the total.

Harvey will work against the resurrected Martin Perez. In his first season with the Twins, Perez has compiled a season ERA of just 2.89, and over his last 3 starts that ERA is an even lower 1.93 with all 3 of those starts holding Under the total.

For the year, 6 of Perez' 7 starts have landed Under the total.

This is the 6th series meeting this year between the teams, and after last night's Over result, the teams are still 6-3-1 Under last 10 times these clubs have faced one another.

Minnesota has trended more towards the Over of late at 5-4-1 Over in their last 10 games, but Los Angeles has been trending the other way, as they are now 6-2-3 Under the posted price in their past 11 games played.

I see the Twins getting to Harvey for a handful, while the Angels have a hard time figuring out Perez, as this game inches close to the total, but does not land Over the total.

Playing this series finale to land Under the total on Wednesday at the Big "A".

1* MINNESOTA-L.A. ANGELS UNDER

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Tys Terrific Tips

MLB

PITTSBURGH PIRATES ‑130

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Ace / V.I.P.

NBA

TORONTO RAPTORS +7

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Tommy King Wins

MLB

MINNESOTA TWINS ‑130

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Team Underground

MLB

WASHINGTON NATIONALS ‑145

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Assassin Sports Betting

MLB

MINNESOTA TWINS ‑135

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Golden Lock Sports

MLB

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES ‑110

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DONNY ACTION

MLB

TORONTO BLUE JAYS +130