Service Plays Tuesday 5/28/19

[Can'tPickAWinner]

From Northcoast group of handicappers:

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Billy Coleman

MLB
3* #957/958 Washington/Atlanta under 8.5 (Strasburg/Fried)

[dawggy]

ROB VENO
BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (951) Pittsburgh Pirates at (952) Cincinnati Reds
Date/Time: May 28 2019 6:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates +104

View Analysis

Game: (979) Milwaukee Brewers at (980) Minnesota Twins
Date/Time: May 28 2019 8:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 10.0 (-109)

View Analysis

Game: (969) Kansas City Royals at (970) Chicago White Sox
Date/Time: May 28 2019 8:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Chicago White Sox -1.5 (+120)

View Analysis

Game: (961) New York Mets at (962) Los Angeles Dodgers
Date/Time: May 28 2019 10:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-105)

View Analysis

[dawggy]

Date Expert Rating Game Play
May 28 Tony Finn 4% [MLB] (979) Milwaukee Brewers at (980) Minnesota Twins

Time: 8:10 PM EDT Minnesota Twins -112
Analysis:
The Twins coaching staff have made a pitching change for tonight's home event versus the visiting Brewers. Perez has been replaced by Devin Smeltzer.

The change from Perez to Smeltzer results in this Tuesday night interleague event a NO PLAY

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PLAY: Minnesota Twins -112
4% game rating

LIST PITCHERS: Davies and Perez

(979) Milwaukee Brewers at (980) Minnesota Twins

The Milwaukee Brewers and Minnesota Twins complete a two-game interleague series. The Twins jumped out to an early 4-0 lead only to lose by a 5-4 final. The Brewers send right-hander Zach Davies (5-0, 2.43 ERA) to the mound to oppose Twins southpaw Martin Perez (7-1, 2.95).

Zach Davies 5-0 record with a 2.43 ERA is smoke and mirrors. While ERA is easily the most misleading stat in baseball the Brewers starter isn't close to performing to the level his surface numbers suggest.

Davies' SIERA is nearly three-runs higher than his ERA and it is safe to predict, prognosticate, project and believe that the sky will soon be falling on Davies sooner than later.

Pérez, who has a 1.71 ERA this month, is coming off a rain delayed start that saw him work on extra rest walking four and allowed six hits and two runs in his last turn. Perez has completed five innings and allowed three or fewer runs in 10 of his 11 starts that includes six straight.

Perez has issued a larger number of free passes than his coaching staff and supporters want to trust. He has benefited from a solid group of defenders behind him and he has avoided hard contact when pitching from the stretch resulting his BABIP and HR/FB rates being favorable to this point. His improved and strengthened grip has seen his velocity increase two m.p.h. across the last season in combination with his corresponding SS% rise are huge points in his favor.

As long as Perez can continue to excute his elite cutter, a pitch he throws 35% of the time, he figures to be 15-plus game winner with the offensive support the Twins are giving the pitching staff.

Perez' current 2.95 ERA, unlike Davies 2.43 mirage, is in line with his 3.43 FIP

The Brewers use left-handed closer Josh Hader for two scoreless innings in the series opener and is not expected to be available tonight.

MINNESOTA TWINS -112
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Best Regards,
WagerTalk
p: 1 (800) 958-7452

[swaminator]

PITCHING CHANGE

MINNESOTA TWINS - D SMELTZER -L FOR M PEREZ -L

[QUOTE=dawggy;621280]TONY FINN

FINN TUE NITE MLB DOUBLHEADER G2
Game: (979) Milwaukee Brewers at (980) Minnesota Twins
Date/Time: May 28 2019 8:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Minnesota Twins -112

View Analysis

PLAY: Minnesota Twins -112
4% game rating

LIST PITCHERS: Davies and Perez

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony George

3 Units - #951 Pittsburgh (-105) over Cincy *6:40 EST
Pittsburgh and Cincinnati played two games yesterday and split them. Because that made it impossible for the Reds to have a bullpen game today and they called up Lucas Sims from Triple-A, where he was 3-0 with a 4.06 ERA in nine starts for Louisville this season, racking up 63 strikeouts and 16 walks in 44 1/3 innings.
Fanning that many batters is impressive but his ERA is not that good and this is where Pittsburgh can take advantage of him. The Pirates Jordan Lyles (5-1, 2.81 ERA) has been sharp all season and the Bucs are a solid 16-12 on the road. The clincher is NL home teams like the Reds with a team on-base percentage .310 or worse, with an on-base percentage of .375 or better over their last five games, are 16-41 in their next encounter.

4 Units - #958 Atlanta (-110) over Washington *7:20 EST
The starting pitching matchup of Stephen Strasburg (4-3, 3.25 ERA) vs. Max Fried (7-2, 2.88) gives the appearance of this being an even game and the money line suggests this as well. However, unless Strasburg can last nine innings, Washington is in peril.
The Nationals bullpen in the worst in baseball with an ERA over 7.00 and with the season one-third in, that is a troubling figure. With Washington 0-6 having won three of four and 4-12 in road games after a five-game span where the bullpen ERA was 7.00 or worse this season, Atlanta is the play.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Birjan Soccer

Combo
Copa Sudamericana
Indenpendiente -1 + Atletico Mineiro -1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Davis

8-Unit Play. Take #951 Pittsburgh +105 over Cincinnati (Tuesday, May 28 at 6:40 p.m)

These two teams split a doubleheader yesterday as the Pirates won the first game 8-5 but lost the second game 8-1. I really like the pitching matchup for Pittsburgh in this game and I believe that gives them a big advantage.

Jordan Lyles is on the mound for the Pirates and he is 5-1 on the season with a 2.81 era. The team is 8-1 in the games he has started this year. He is 3-0 away from home with a 1.96 era. He faced the Reds in his first start of the season on April 4th and he allowed just 3 hits and 0 runs in 5.0 innings of work. The team plays well when he is on the bump -- due in large part to the way he has pitched.

Lucas Sims is on the mound for the Reds. Sims hasn't made a major league start since 2017 when he was with the Braves. He is a Georgia native and a former first round draft pick, but the Braves gave up on him when they traded him to the Reds last season. His fastball can be flat at times and that gets him into trouble. He has a 4.06 era in the minors this season and I look for the Pirates to hit him hard tonight.

Pittsburgh has a decided advantage on the mound tonight and I look for them to come out and play a complete game -- just like they have in nearly every single start Lyles has made this year. Pittsburgh is 20-7 in the last 27 meetings between these two teams. They are 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Cincinnati. For what it's worth, the Reds have alternated wins and losses in their last 11 games -- they won the second game last night.

Lyles and the Pirates should win this game fairly easily.

Take Pittsburgh

Best of luck -- Mike

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tuesday May 28th 2019-

7 Unit Play Take #963 Detroit -110 over Baltimore (7:05pm est):

Detroit Tigers starter today Matthew Boyd has been the brightest spot of these two dismal clubs in 2019. The 28 year-old left-hander was a below average starting pitcher coming into this season with a career ERA that was above 5.00 but he made some changes in the off-season and is currently ranked in the top ten among all starting pitchers in K%-BB% and FIP. I've seen some signs of late as well that he's pitching even better as his velocity has went up a tick in his last two outings.

He'll face a Baltimore Orioles team here that comes in with the worst record in all of MLB this year. The O's will counter here with Dylan Bundy in this game. The 26 year-old Bundy hasn't put it together yet like many were expecting from the former top five draft pick as his ERA the past two seasons sits at an ugly 5.29. The achilles heel for Bundy has been the fact he's an extreme fly ball pitcher and that makes things very difficult for him as his home ballpark is one of the top hitters parks in the league. This game here will be played in Camden Yards and Bundy is ranked dead last among all qualified pitchers in home runs allowed per nine innings AT HOME since 2016.

Take Detroit in this one. Been a great season again in the NBA with profits won overall for the 2nd year. Looking to end it a winner in the NBA Finals that start later this week.

Thank you and good luck,

Jason Sharpe

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Allen Eastman

7-Unit Play. Take #962 Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5, +100) over New York Mets (10 p.m., Tuesday, May 28)

The Dodgers have won four straight games and eight of their last 10. They easily won last night's series opener 9-5 and I think that they will be able to do it again here. The Dodgers are going with Rich Hill and he has a 0.94 WHIP and a 2.12 ERA in his last three starts and he has been very good all season long. I think that he will shut down this struggling Mets lineup that is 0-5 in their last five games against a left-handed starter. New York is a terrible 4-17 in their last 21 road games and they are just 2-7 in their last nine games in Los Angeles. The Dodgers are 10-3 in Hill's last 13 starts and 7-3 in his last 10 home starts. Los Angeles is 35-17 in their last 52 games overall and they are 11-1 when he starts against a team from the N.L. East. I think the Dodgers will dominate this one.

Allen Eastman

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vernon Croy

7-Unit Play. Take #953-954 St. Louis/Philadelphia GAME TOTAL OVER 10 -120 (Tuesday, May 28 at 7:00 PM ET)

StL: A. Wainwright (4-4, 4.82 ERA)

Phi: N. Pivetta (2-1, 8.35 ERA)

Take St. Louis/Philadelphia GAME TOTAL OVER as my 7-Unit MLB Smash for Tuesday night. This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and I have this game flying over the posted total here tonight. Philadelphia has hit .348 as a team lifetime against Wainwright with an on-base percentage of .382 and he has struggled on the road this season with an ERA of 6.75 over 5 road starts. Wainwright has an ERA of 8.00 over his last 2 starts with opponents hitting .324 against him while walking 9 batters and striking out just 4. This is Pivetta's first start since April 16 and he has struggled this season with an ERA of 8.35 over his first 4 starts. Philadelphia has averaged 5.2 runs per game at home this season and St. Louis has averaged 5.2 runs per game in night games this season. This is a hitter friendly ballpark and the over/under is 15-6-to in Wainwright's last 23 starts on the road. The over/under is also 7-0 in Pivetta's last 7 starts overall and I expect both starters to struggle here tonight. Play the OVER as we move to 24-10 the last 35 days in MLB. Note: Don't sleep on my WNBA as I also have a 7-Unit WNBA Play going tonight and I'm one of the best WNBA experts (+$9,100 last 2 seasons) in the business.

[dawggy]

ROB VENO
Game: (971) Los Angeles Angels at (972) Oakland Athletics
Date/Time: May 28 2019 10:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Oakland Athletics -1.5 (+112)

View Analysis

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Oh


KANSAS CITY +130


KANSAS CITY @ CHI. WHITE SOX | 5/28 | 8:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 6:01 PM
Lucas Giolito mowed down the powerful Astros in a complete-game gem last time out, and now he faces the average-on-good-days Royals. But Chicago's offense didn't show up in a three-game sweep to the Twins, and Brad Keller has shown enough flashes to believe he can keep that trend going. It should be a close game, but Kansas City actually takes more than half of my advanced computer simulations and at a nice underdog price.

69-42 IN LAST 111 MLB PICKS | +2753
27-14 IN LAST 41 KC ML PICKS | +1604

18-11 IN LAST 29 CHW ML PICKS | +726


SEATTLE -141


TEXAS @ SEATTLE | 5/28 | 10:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 5:57 PM
The Mariners, for all their offensive struggles, are still among the league's best when it comes to scoring runs and hitting home runs overall. Tuesday they face a Rangers pitcher in Adrian Sampson who has a 6.19 road ERA. Marco Gonzales and Seattle win nearly two-thirds of my computer simulations.The Rangers are just 5-17 as a road underdog this year. Jump on Seattle.

69-42 IN LAST 111 MLB PICKS | +2753
15-9 IN LAST 24 TEX ML PICKS | +1055

BALTIMORE +104
DETROIT @ BALTIMORE | 5/28 | 7:05 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 5:55 PM
The Orioles are just 3-7 on the year when Dylan Bundy gets the ball. But he's also sporting a 2.28 ERA over his last four starts, and the Tigers' offense is not producing. Baltimore takes a big 63 percent of my model simulations, and at an underdog money line price.

69-42 IN LAST 111 MLB PICKS | +2753
18-8 IN LAST 26 DET ML PICKS | +958

10-5 IN LAST 15 BAL ML PICKS | +384


CINCINNATI -159


PITTSBURGH 1 @ CINCINNATI 8
5/27WINSUN 5/26
The Pirates have won five of six over the Reds so far this season, but that reverses in a big way Monday according to my projections. Sonny Gray deals and the Reds' bullpen helps in shutting down the Pirates offense. Cincy wins a whopping 74 percent of my simulations against the Pirates and Mitch Keller.

69-42 IN LAST 111 MLB PICKS | +2753
11-1 IN LAST 12 PIT ML PICKS | +1084

13-8 IN LAST 21 CIN ML PICKS | +512


BALTIMORE -108


DETROIT 3 @ BALTIMORE 5
5/27WINSUN 5/26
My projections aren't liking Daniel Norris going against an Orioles offense that can score in the right situations. Baltimore averages more than five runs in my simulations, while the Tigers are held down. The Orioles win nearly 70 percent of my simulations, a huge number and at basically an even-odds price. Jump on the O's.

69-42 IN LAST 111 MLB PICKS | +2753
18-8 IN LAST 26 DET ML PICKS | +958

10-5 IN LAST 15 BAL ML PICKS | +384

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Adam Thompson


PHILADELPHIA -121


ST. LOUIS @ PHILADELPHIA | 5/28 | 7:05 PM EDT
9:36 AM
Nick Pavetta gets another chance to prove is worth for the Phillies, despite getting crushed to the tune of an 8.35 ERA before being sent down, then being only so-so in the minors. But Tuesday he faces a Cardinals team that lifetime is hitting just .194 against him. And he's squaring off against Adam Wainwright, who is having his own problems, including a 6.75 road ERA. Take away Andrew McCutchen's lifetime of struggles against Wainwright, (6-for-33), the rest of the Phillies lineup is hitting him at a .358 clip.

8-6 IN LAST 14 MLB ML PICKS | +107
18-9 IN LAST 27 PHI ML PICKS | +833


BALTIMORE +104


DETROIT @ BALTIMORE | 5/28 | 7:05 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 6:17 PM
Dylan Bundy's numbers would be a lot better as Orioles starter if he wasn't giving up 1.3 home runs per game at Camden Yards. Fortunately for him on Tuesday he gets the Tigers -- only the Marlins have hit fewer dingers this year, and Detroit is especially poor on the road, averaging 3.5 runs per game on .228 hitting. Baltimore's offense has picked it up in May and it's hitting .292 and scoring 6.1 runs per game the last week. Matthew Boyd has been legit for Detroit, but Baltimore has had success against LHPs.

8-6 IN LAST 14 MLB ML PICKS | +107
13-4 IN LAST 17 BAL ML PICKS | +858

7-3 IN LAST 10 DET ML PICKS | +259

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dirty Bear Sports

MLB:
KC F5 +.5 +100 3u

MLB Season: 39-46-7 46% -29.80 units

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Johnny Bollman


MIAMI -115


SAN FRANCISCO @ MIAMI | 5/28 | 7:10 PM EDT
2:28 PM
Miami is 7-3 in their last 10 games while the Giants are 3-7 in their last 10 games including five straight losses. Jeff Samardzija is 2-3 with a 3.27 ERA this season, although he is 1-2 with a 4.56 ERA in five starts on the road. Trevor Richards is 1-5 but he owns a 4.14 ERA this season. These two teams are the worst at scoring runs against righties, I like the Marlins to win a barn-burner.

13-2 IN LAST 15 MLB ML PICKS | +1173
4-0 IN LAST 4 SF ML PICKS | +402


PHILADELPHIA -121


ST. LOUIS @ PHILADELPHIA | 5/28 | 7:05 PM EDT
2:27 PM
The Cardinals are 3-7 in their last 10 games while the Phillies are 7-3 in their last 10. Nick Pivetta has been recalled making his first start since April after a rough first four starts, although the Phillies still won three of the four games he started. Adam Wainwright is sporting a 4-4 record with a 4.82 ERA, including a 1-3 record with a 6.75 ERA in five starts on the road. The Phillies are 6-2 after a day off and the Cardinals are 2-6. Take the 18-10 Phillies at home against the struggling Cardinals.

13-2 IN LAST 15 MLB ML PICKS | +1173


BALTIMORE -105


DETROIT @ BALTIMORE | 5/28 | 7:05 PM EDT
2:26 PM
Matthew Boyd has easily been the best starter for the Tigers this season, going 4-4 with a 3.11 ERA. However, Dylan Bundy has been good as of late with a 2.28 ERA over his last four starts. Both these teams have been bad recently, but the Orioles are 12th in the league at scoring runs against lefties. I like the Orioles at home.

13-2 IN LAST 15 MLB ML PICKS | +1173
4-1 IN LAST 5 DET ML PICKS | +253