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Wednesday 5-29-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
My free play is on the St. Louis Cardinals in their game at the Philadelphia Phillies, and I want you listing just one of the scheduled starters.
Genesis Cabrera will make his MLB debut, as he takes Michael Wacha's spot in the rotation. Wacha is now in the bullpen. An official game will make Cabrera the 2,000th Cardinal since the club’s acknowledged start in 1892. Now, when you look at the big picture, his Triple-A numbers that include a 6.35 ERA aren't great. But he just delivered back-to-back gems for Memphis, firing six innings each and striking out 10 combined
He has the ability to maintain high-90s velocity, but can turn around and drop a 12-6 curve that disappears upon arrival. He's been working on his breaking ball, and that's why he has such a high ERA at the minor-league level. That's one of the naive reasons people side against pitchers making their debut, because they look directly at their stats.
Ignorance in some is because they don't realize when pitchers are working on their pitches, sometimes they'll throw limited innings, just to work on one pitch. The opposition knows the pitcher is firing for location, or just to work their off-speed, and they take 'em deep.
But Cabrera is more than ready for the bigs.
Tossing against Aaron Nola - who I won't list - will further motivate Cabrera. Nola has been solid all season, so Cabrera will have to match that intensity. The scary thing about Nola is the due factor, and as he hasn't lost a game. If he comes in thinking he's going to overpower the Redbirds, it could spell trouble.
The Phils' offense has been lacking, and I don't know if Nola can get the run support.
I'll take a chance with the underdog making his debut.
I nailed my free play on Cleveland last night, as I told you not to count on Boston's David Price, and also the Red Sox would not get to Indians starter Zac Plesac, who made his MLB debut. Never bet against a pitcher in his MLB debut. You don't have to play on him, but betting against him is a no-no.
For future reference, if you've wagered on teams ushering starting pitchers to the hill to make their MLB debut this season you're 11-6 on the season. Not too shabby.
Tonight, I'm not playing the St. Louis Cardinals, but make note Genesis Cabrera is making his MLB debut for the Redbirds.
My freebie is on the Miami Marlins over the San Francisco Giants, and I'm listing the scheduled starting pitchers: Pablo Lopez and Madison Bumgarner.
Real quick with this one, I've been impressed with Lopez at home, where he last tossed seven shutout innings in a win over the Mets. Lopez, who has allowed 14 runs in 6 2/3 innings in his last two starts on the road, has a stingy home ERA of 1.93 over 23 1/3 innings.
Meanwhile, Bumgarner is in after giving up two runs over six innings against the Braves on Thursday, but he is 2-3 with a 4.96 ERA in eight career starts against the Marlins, who are riding a 7-3 win streak thanks to a .266 batting average in that span. MIami's offense has come alive in outscoring opponents by 11 runs in that 10-game run.
And making matters worse for the Giants, they're mired in a 3-7 slide, are hitting .210 in that timeframe, have been outscored by 40 runs and have a staff ERA of 5.55.
Comp play for Wednesday is Toronto and Tampa Bay to close out their series with a game that plays Over the posted price.
Monday was an 8-3 final and an Over.
Tuesday was just a 3-1 final and a rare Under.
Even with last night's Under, Toronto is still 7-1-1 Over the total in their last 9 games played.
While for the Rays, the Over is still 6-4 their last 10 games played.
Trent Thornton will oppose Blake Snell, and Thornton's season ERA is 4.42 with the Over standing at 3-1 in Thornton's last 4 starts.
Blake Snell has not allowed more than 2 earned runs in any of his last 4 starts, but the Over when Snell takes the hill stands at 4-2 his last 6 starts.
Going to look for there to be enough runs on the Trop scoreboard to get this series finale Over the total.
Wednesday comp play on the Under in Game Two of the Stanley Cup Finals between the St. Louis Blues and the Boston Bruins.
Yes, Game One on Monday did slip Over the total, but that Over was achieved thanks to an empty net goal with just under 2 minutes remaining in the contest.
I do not think we are going Over the total here in Game Two, as Tuukka Rask continues to be in the zone even after an 11-day layoff. Rask allowed 2 goals before his team could get on board, but once again he did not yield any more than the pair, as each of Boston's last 6 playoff games have seen him allow 2 goals or less, and Rask has allowed a total of 13 goals to score in Boston's last 9 postseason contests.
The Bruins have held Under the total in 7 of their last 11 playoff games, and I think they are holding Under again here on Wednesday courtesy of another "stonewall" performance from Rask.
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