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Scott Spreitzer's 25* CBB REALITY CHECK ANNIHILATOR! - Wednesday
The LSU Tigers have just found out what we already knew. They're not nearly as good as their record would indicate. After beating up on the likes of Alcorn State, Centenary, and Grambling State, en route to a 12-1 start, the Tigers have begun to fall back to earth. The talent level is mediocre by SEC standards, and they're about to get their biggest dose of reality as far as I'm concerned, when they take on a South Carolina team that already owns a road win over top-20 Baylor. LSU averaged 78.3 ppg in their 12 wins against soft opposition. In their three losses, to Texas A&M, Utah, and Alabama, the Tigers have scored an average of just 60.3 ppg! They're connecting on just 41% of their FGA, making a grand total of just nine treys in the three losses at 24%. They're also minus-14 in the rebound category, and LSU is losing a lot of ground at the charity stripe. The Tigers are committing way too many fouls, while not drawing many, themselves. LSU averaged just 15 FTA per game in the losses, while their opponents have shot 30, 24, and 35! South Carolina has been nasty this season on the defensive end...and that's an under-statement. The Gamecocks have forced 13 of their 14 opponents to finish with more turnovers than assists. And, we're not just talking about one or two more. USC has forced SEVEN of their 14 opponents to commit 20 or more assists. In fact, on the season, USC opposition is averaging exactly 20 turnovers per game, for a MINUS-9 assist-to-turnover per game average! WOW! That is the "stat of the year" through the first half of the season, as far as I'm concerned. It's another serious dose of reality for LSU as they take another SEC contest on the chin. I'm taking the points with South Carolina on Wednesday. Thanks! GL! Scott.
Wednesday College Opinion
Smu (+2 ½) over RICE
If I use all games for both teams my ratings would favor Rice by 2 ½ points without any adjustments in this game. Adjustments need to be made, however, as SMU is a better team since forward Mouhammad Faye joined the rotation on December 17th after missing the first 7 games of the season. SMU is about 3 ½ points better in 6 games since Faye starting playing and they should be even better now that Faye is in the starting lineup. Faye has averaged 17.3 points in his 3 starts and he is a good defensive player that has averaged 1.5 steals and 1 block per 30 minutes in his 3 years, which are both very good. My ratings favor SMU by 1 point with Faye in the starting lineup and I’ll lean with the Mustangs at +2 points or more.
Rotation #723 Michigan State (-5) 3-Stars at -6 or less, 2-Stars up to -7.
Rotation #725 South Florida (+21 1/2) 2-Stars at +21 or more.
Rotation #727 Duke (-11 1/2) 3-Stars at -12 or less, 2-Stars up to -13.
Rotation #735 St. Joseph's (-3 1/2) 2-Stars at -4 or less.
Rotation #759 West Virginia (-14 1/2) 2-Stars at -16 or less, 3-Stars at -14 or less.
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