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| Vegas Pro Insiders Daily | MLB | SEATTLE MARINERS/MINNESOTA TWINS o10 |
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Jack Brayman
The Toronto Raptors are going to be my go-to team at this point, I don't care what anyone says about the two-time defending champion Golden State Warriors. This is Toronto's series to lose. And after failing to capitalize in Game 5 at home, and seeing how the St. Louis Blues made quick work of the Bruins in Boston last night to wrap up the Stanley Cup, I like the Raptors to end this series tonight.
Confidence should be brewing, since the Raptors are 3-0 on the Warriors' home floor, and all three of those wins coming by double digits, including two in this series.
Tonight, in the last game ever being played at Oracle, the Raptors will send the fans home sour.
Think about this for a moment, before you gush over Golden State's victory in Game 5. The Warriors canned 20 3-pointers, the most they've made in any game this postseason. And yet they won by, ahem, one. Even in Game 2, when they opened the second half on an 18-0 run, the Warriors still needed a trey at the end to win the game.
This series should be over, in my opinion. We should not be discussing anything but baseball - which is why I have my first 200 Dimer of the season tonight - but here we are in Oakland, talking hoops.
And with Toronto covering 8 of 9, and its offense doing much better than the Warriors in this series, this is as good a spot as any to take advantage of Golden State's scoring defense.
The Warriors allow an average of 111.1 points per game, they give up 111.4 on the road and they've allowed 111 in their last five. On the flipside, the Raptors' defense is giving up 106.7 points overall, 108 on the road and 105 in their last five.
I expect Kawhi Leonard to carry his momentum over from the fourth quarter of Game 5, when he put up 12 points, including 10 in a two-minute stretch to give the Raptors a six-point lead. Leonard had 14 points, nine rebounds and five assists in the first three quarters, so it's obvious he was ready to take over.
Tonight you can expect to see him lead the Raptors to a title.
5* RAPTORSComment
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Dwayne Connors
Your comp play for Thursday night is the Under in Game Six of the Finals.
After Overs in each of the first three games in this series, the last two games have both failed to land in the Over column, and I don't think this one will either.
Look at what the Warriors did from behind the arc in Game Five on Monday night...20 of 42 for a 47.6% night from three-ville and yet they only came up with 106 points. Meanwhile, Toronto netted just 8 of 32 from behind the arc, as they ended up with 105 points.
Expect both percentages to change some tonight, but don't expect them to change dramatically in an offensive way that sees the points rack up tonight in the final game at Oracle Arena.
With Golden State's depth compromised with Kevin Durant out, Kevan Looney ailing, and Draymond Green and Andre Igoudala struggling to consistently hit jump shots, I just do not see Golden State posting much more than 100 to 105 points.
Look for Toronto to rely on a very strong defensive effort as they look to close out the NBA Finals in Oakland tonight. If the Raptors play their usual stifling defense, then this game holds Under the total, the same way the last pair in this series have.
Raptors-Warriors Under the total.
2* TORONTO-GOLDEN STATE UNDERComment
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Chris Jordan
I'm on a 26-10 winning run with my free baseball plays this season.
My free play for tonight is on the Texas Rangers against the Boston Red Sox.
I know, it's a huge underdog, and David Price is on the hill. But truth is, I've looked at this game all week.
I actually like Adrian Sampson to outduel Price.
Sampson steps to the Fenway Park hill just five days short of the third anniversary of his Major League-debut, and he's an impressive 5-0 with a 1.99 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP over his last five appearances, including three in relief. Spanning those 31 2/3 innings, he's allowed one earned run in four of the appearances.
Given this is his first start against the defending champs, I think he will come out firing.
His teammates should be able to get him some run support against Price, who is 4-6 with a 5.63 ERA in 15 career starts against the Rangers.
Texas is slugging .449 as a team, and is led by Hunter Pence, who is slugging .583. Shin-Soo Choo leads the Rangers with 29 extra-base hits, while Elvis Andrus is 15-for-45 with six doubles, a triple and seven RBIs over the last 10 games for Texas.
Huge underdog, and great spot. Take the Rangers and list both.
2* RANGERSComment
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Tony Weston
COMPLIMENTARY WINNER
My free winner for tonight is on the Tampa Bay Rays, as they're at home hosting the Angels, who arrive from Anaheim after an eight-game homestand. And in this game, I want you listing the scheduled starting pitchers: Ryan Yarbrough over Tyler Skaggs.
Let's start with Yarbrough, who has been splendid for the Rays in four outings - three of them starts - since being recalled from Triple-A Durham. The 2014 draft choice is 5-2 this season, but is 3-1 with a 3.51 ERA over 25 2/3 innings since returning to the rotation. Yarbitron, as he's affectionately known, has tossed at least seven innings in all three of the starts.
Tonight he gets a team that has split its last 10 games, and been rather quiet at the plate of late. The Angels are just 14-17 on the road, and this is going to be a tough place to start their 11-game road trip that includes stops in Toronto and Hockeytown St. Louis.
Tampa Bay's offense will be rocking against Skaggs, who has been inconsistent for the Halos, posting a 5.92 ERA over his last seven starts. He just allowed six runs over four innings against the Oakland A's in his last outing on Thursday, and he's going to have problems with a Rays offense that has the league's fourth-best batting average (.261).
Take the Rays and list both.
5* RAYS (Yarbrough over Skaggs)Comment
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Bob Valentino
After a Tuesday day/night double-dip slugfest with their cross-town rivals the Mets - 17 combined runs in the day game, and 14 combined runs in the nightcap - look for the scoring to slow considerably as the Yankees hit the road for the first of four on the South Side of Chicago with the White Sox.
When the Yankees and White Sox met at Yankee Stadium in April, 2 of the 3 held Under the total. The one game that did not featured J.A. Happ on the hill in a 9-6 Pale Hose win. Happ has been much better in his recent starts than he was earlier this season, as he has allowed only 2 runs on 7 hits over his last pair of starts which have encompassed 12 innings. The Under scoring the cash in BOTH of those starts, and is on an overall 4-1-1 run in Happ's last 6 assignments.
Former Yankee, Ivan Nova will get the nod for Chicago, and he has been a bit "yielding" this season with his over 6 season ERA, and 8 runs (7 earned) allowed over his last 12-plus innings, but 2 of his last 3 starts have held Under the total.
Like New York, Chicago has been Over the total in their last pair, but overall are 6-4 Under the total in their last 10 games played overall.
Series numbers show not just the 2 of 3 this season Under, but 8 of the last 10 dating back to 2017 Under the total when these clubs meet.
Go with the Low on Thursday night in this Yanks-ChiSox battle.
3* N.Y. YANKEES-WHITE SOX UNDERComment
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