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Spartan
3* Minnesota -132
3* Minnesota -132
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Rocky Atkinson
2* Atlanta -149Comment
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Stephen Oh
ATLANTA -147
N.Y. METS @ ATLANTA | 6/17 | 7:20 PM EDT
9:06 AM
Mike Soroka finally had a hiccup of an outing last week, but his ERA is still under 2 and he allowed only one run in two starts against the Mets last year. Atlanta has won nine of 10 and the last four times Soroka has started at home. Zack Wheeler allowed nine runs his last time out, and the Mets are 1-4 in his last five road starts. Take Atlanta.
93-57 IN LAST 150 MLB PICKS | +3399
32-22 IN LAST 54 NYM ML PICKS | +1390
2-1 IN LAST 3 ATL ML PICKS | +80
MILWAUKEE -105
MILWAUKEE @ SAN DIEGO | 6/17 | 10:10 PM EDT
9:03 AM
Jhoulys Chacin comes off the IL to start for the Brewers, who enter the week one game ahead of the Cubs for first place in the NL Central. Milwaukee has won six in a row at San Diego, and my projections show the high-powered offense gets to Joey Lucchesi. The Brew Crew win close to 60 percent of my simulations.
93-57 IN LAST 150 MLB PICKS | +3399
10-4 IN LAST 14 MIL ML PICKS | +635
HOUSTON +105
HOUSTON @ CINCINNATI | 6/17 | 7:10 PM EDT
8:55 AM
The Astros are underdogs here for just the seventh time all season, and that's mostly because Luis Castillo is going for the Reds at home. But Cincinnati is only 7-7 when it hands the ball to the rising ace, while Houston is going with Wade Miley -- the team is 11-4 in his starts, and is coming off six innings of shutout ball his last time out. The Astros win 64 percent of my simulations. Jump on this line before it changes.
93-57 IN LAST 150 MLB PICKS | +3399
29-19 IN LAST 48 HOU ML PICKS | +1455
15-8 IN LAST 23 CIN ML PICKS | +718Comment
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Andre GOMES
2* LA DODGERS / San Francisco over 8.5
2* Cincinnati -115
2* LA ANGLES / Toronto over 10.5
2* LA ANGLES -1.5(-107)Comment
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Johnny Bollman
TAMPA BAY +122
TAMPA BAY @ N.Y. YANKEES | 6/17 | 7:05 PM EDT
11:36 AM
Yonny Chirinos is 4-2 with a 2.36 ERA this season in eight starts and 7-2 with a 2.88 ERA overall. He is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA in his first two starts against the Yankees this season. Masahiro Tanaka is 4-5 with a 3.58 ERA. He has given up four runs and at least one home run in each of his last three starts. The Rays are 6-3 as the road underdog and the Yankees are 6-8 when Tanaka starts.
30-13 IN LAST 43 MLB PICKS | +1206
4-0 IN LAST 4 TB ML PICKS | +421
HOUSTON +106
HOUSTON @ CINCINNATI | 6/17 | 7:10 PM EDT
11:35 AM
Wade Miley is 6-3 with a 3.14 ERA and Luis Castillo is 6-1 with a 2.2 ERA. Miley has thrown 13 quality starts in 14 appearances this season and the Astros are 10-4 when he starts. The Reds are 22nd in the league in runs scored and OPS against lefties. The Reds are just 16-17 at home and 7-7 when Castillo starts. Take the value in the Astros as the underdog.
30-13 IN LAST 43 MLB PICKS | +1206
3-1 IN LAST 4 HOU ML PICKS | +165
ATLANTA -158
N.Y. METS @ ATLANTA | 6/17 | 7:20 PM EDT
11:34 AM
Both these pitchers are coming off career highs in earned runs allowed but Zack Wheeler is 5-4 with a 4.87 ERA while Mike Soroka is 7-1 with a 1.92 ERA. Wheeler is 6-3 with a 3.19 ERA lifetime against the Braves, but Soroka only gave up one run in 12.1 IP against the Mets last year. In the last seven days, the Braves have the highest OPS in the league (yes, higher than the Rockies) and the Mets are 14-23 on the road. The Mets are 7-7 when Wheeler starts and the Braves are 8-3 when Soroka starts, don’t overthink this one.
30-13 IN LAST 43 MLB PICKS | +1206
2-1 IN LAST 3 NYM ML PICKS | +45Comment
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Adam Thompson
SEATTLE -111
KANSAS CITY @ SEATTLE | 6/17 | 10:10 PM EDT
10:31 AM
The Mariners' freefall from MLB's best team to last place in the AL West has been ugly. But they can still hit the ball far, and the Royals have really struggled against left-handed pitching. Seattle is averaging nearly six runs per game the last two-plus weeks, double the 3.0 of KC over the same span. The Royals' OPS of .653 against LHPs and .616 this month rank near the MLB cellar, and again are 120-150 points lower than the slugging Mariners. For even money, I'll take Seattle, its opener and Tommy Milone against Danny Duffy and the light-hitting Royals.
2-1 IN LAST 3 MLB ML PICKS | +54
7-3 IN LAST 10 KC ML PICKS | +372
3-1 IN LAST 4 SEA ML PICKS | +180
CLEVELAND -129
CLEVELAND @ TEXAS | 6/17 | 8:05 PM EDT
10:24 AM
Mike Clevinger is finally coming off the IL -- he dominanted opponents for two starts before back issues shut him down. He's allowed two hits and struck out 22 over 12 innings. Now he faces a tough Rangers order, but the Indians' bats are beginning to hold their own. They're averaging 5.5 runs per game in the month of June -- same as Texas. Clevinger and the top-ranked bullpen should hold down Texas enough while the Indians get to Lance Lynn, who has a 4.91 ERA and .290 average allowed at home.
2-1 IN LAST 3 MLB ML PICKS | +54
22-12 IN LAST 34 TEX ML PICKS | +868
14-6 IN LAST 20 CLE ML PICKS | +839
ATLANTA -152
N.Y. METS @ ATLANTA | 6/17 | 7:20 PM EDT
9:45 AM
Mike Soroka tagged for five runs over five innings against the Pirates last Wednesday. So now he's 7-1 with a 1.92 ERA. He's allowed just one run in two career starts against the Mets. While the Braves have won Soroka’s last four home starts, the Mets have lost four of five when Zack Wheeler gets the ball on the road. Wheeler has allowed at least three runs in six straight starts, which likely won’t be good enough against Soroka.
2-1 IN LAST 3 MLB ML PICKS | +54
23-7 IN LAST 30 ATL ML PICKS | +1761
11-5 IN LAST 16 NYM ML PICKS | +473Comment
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Exodus to Black
MLB
Cleve/TX under 9.5Comment
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Vince Atkins (6-3 L3 days)
MLB Trend Plays
3x A's ML (-220)
Yankees ML (-135)Comment
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Al Demarco
Top-Rated 15 Dime Winner
Mismatch of the Week
Washington NatsComment
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BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (909) San Diego Padres at (910) Colorado Rockies
Date/Time: Jun 16 2019 3:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Colorado Rockies -148
View Analysis
Margevicius v. Lambert
This kid for the Rockies ain't scared of nothing...getting his first 2 starts against the.Cubbies and winning both...struggling little even facing them in Coors. He is following 2 excellent offensive performances from his offense who look to win the series at home today!
Margevicius on the other hand is hard to back...5+ FIP/xFIP and pitched twice against Colorado already and didn't even handle them semi-decently at home in his pitcher's park. The Rockies just hammered lefty Lauer last night and the Dads (who I backed fully last night) throw a much lesser starter following 2 HIGH scoring games where the Padres have burned through 11 pitchers and allowed 23 runs.
Value on this play is too vast and Lambert's young devil may care attitude should be enough to carry them long past Margevicius likely short outing and a bullpen not prepared for the task of shopping the Rockies cruising offense.
Game: (951) Philadelphia Phillies at (952) Washington Nationals
Date/Time: Jun 17 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Washington Nationals -140
View Analysis
Arrieta v. Corbin
Arrieta just ain't what he used to be...or once was for a couple seasons as a dominant Cy Young, World Series ringing fella...but much like Belichick allowing a stud to walk is Joe Maddon and Theo Epstein doing the same thing. Probably not all that unexpected his subsequent Philly time has paled in comparison. Objectively all out there he had 119 starts for the Cubbies and racked up over 18 WAR while he will be making his 46th start in Philly with a total of 2.3 WAR. On pace over the same amount of time to not even hit 7 WAR or about a 70% decrease in value! He is walking far too many batters, has an FIP/xFIP split far too high, and just isn't missing any bats at all. His swing and miss rate is 7.4% and. his contact rate allowed is 82.4...both good for nearly the bottom of the MLB. He is also allowing a 20% HR/FB rate pitching tonight in park just about in the top 10 for both runs scored and home runs hit on the season. He is on my power fade list and being backed by an offense who has struggled mightily against lefties and moreso combining that with the road.
Corbin has been a Jekyll & Hyde fella...but is at home tonight...his offense is crazy hot and healthy and is facing an offense not good against lefties and worse when it's on the road.
This price is excellent and the bargain here almost warrants another 5% play to be honest...anywhere near the vicinity of -125 or -130 and I sure would have hit it bigger....will likely also pepper in some -1.5. Also the Under might be worth a look as I think the Nats do most of the scoring...just.how much Arrieta allows before giving way to the pen is the question...as well as Corbin avoiding use of his own pen.
b
Game: (963) Los Angeles Angels at (964) Toronto Blue Jays
Date/Time: Jun 17 2019 7:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Los Angeles Angels -150
View Analysis
Garcia v. Jackson
FYI....playing action on this bet...and yes the Jays have announced an opener will be used for Jackson's start...
Feels too good to be true...just laying about 150 to get the Angels against the Edwin phenomena. Won't Over think it just make it the cornerstone of the Triple Play!
Game: (965) Cleveland Indians at (966) Texas Rangers
Date/Time: Jun 17 2019 8:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Cleveland Indians -126
View Analysis
Clevinger v. Lynn
Clevinger is finally back after a torrid fire start to the season. He. basically had the 2 best starts one could possibly start a season with before injuring his lat and missing 2 months this early in the season. A pretty excellent starting rotation for Cleveland has been hampered by such injuries...Kluber and Carrasco both significant long-term injuries plus Salazar and Rodriguez also out...in addition to Clevinger. This return is likely exactly the boost the Indians roster needs! The time Lindor was out hurt...but upon his return it provided the same boost I expect here today.
Lance Lynn has piled up a slew of "quality starts" and boy do I HATE this stat. Quality start shmality start is how I roll. But in this streak of starts he has a ton of BABIP performances in the high .300s and .400s even allowing .387 to the Royals!
In addition to buying Clevinger and selling Lance Lynn we have the benefit of lineups. The Indians have been one of the best hitting teams against righties in June upping the ante even on the road....while the Rangers (still without Gallo) have been close to the worst lineup in June against righties...not much better on their home turf!
I also like the added benefit of Clevinger getting his start back on the road and not at Progressive with the added pressure of being the early season savior right there at home with the Twins showing no sign of stopping...and the point with which the Indians Francona stranglehold on the AL Central looking more and more like its in intensive care!
Bargain basement line as Lance Lynn continues to demand Vegas attention...and is garnering close to 70% of tickets while folks probably forgot about Mike Clevinger and saw that name on the slate and promptly faded with their bets....we benefit!
M
Game: (955) Miami Marlins at (956) St. Louis Cardinals
Date/Time: Jun 17 2019 8:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H St. Louis Cardinals -0.5 (-145)
View Analysis
Hernandez v. Mikolas
Mikolas pitched wildly terrible against the Fish last week and yet again he gets a young pitcher with very little experience under his belt. But he's at home...overall solid and Hernandez xFIP screams rough away from home...with it being 5.03 through his 2 starts...including a loss to these Cards in Miami.
Mikolas also has only had 1 start as bad as in Miami last week...and sans that South Beach flu and more focused at home....combined with a system that's 41-16 this season backing the Cards we have a solid play here!
Game: (969) Baltimore Orioles at (970) Oakland Athletics
Date/Time: Jun 17 2019 10:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Total Under 5.0 (-110)
View Analysis
Cashner v. FiersComment
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ROB VENO
BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (973) Houston Astros at (974) Cincinnati Reds
Date/Time: Jun 17 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Houston Astros +108
View Analysis
Game: (965) Cleveland Indians at (966) Texas Rangers
Date/Time: Jun 17 2019 8:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Under 9.5 (-120)
View Analysis
Game: (955) Miami Marlins at (956) St. Louis Cardinals
Date/Time: Jun 17 2019 8:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (-110)
View Analysis
Game: (959) San Francisco Giants at (960) Los Angeles Dodgers
Date/Time: Jun 17 2019 10:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-125)
View AnalysisComment
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+EV: MLB 4u: 966 CLE/TEX un9.5 -101 (M Clevinger | L Lynn) (Monday, June 17th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 956 MIA/STL un8.5 -105 (E Hernandez | M Mikolas) (Monday, June 17th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 966 Texas Rangers +119 (M Clevinger | L Lynn) (Monday, June 17th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 958 San Diego Padres -123 (J Chacin | J Lucchesi) (Monday, June 17th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 952 Washington Nationals -138 (J Arrieta | P Corbin) (Monday, June 17th)
+EV: TENNIS 3u: 2066 Kirsten Flipkens +140 (WTA - Mallorca) (Monday, June 17th)Comment
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Augie J - ATL NYY Philly Guy - Phils Marlins OverComment
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- Marco D
PLAY: (961) TAMPA BAY 1st 5 innings
RATING: 3% PLAY
Yonny Chirinos in 8 starts has a ERA of 2.36 and a WHIP of 0.88. Tanaka goes for the Yankees who in his last 3 starts he’s gone 6 innings allowing 4 ER’s in all 3 starts. Chirinos vs Tanaka for the 1st 5 innings presents a huge advantage for Tampa Bay. The Yankees return from a road trip and we love fading teams in that spot.
TAKE TAMPA BAY 1st 5 innings as MARCO’S 3% MLB PLAY - MARCO’S 3% MLB PLAY
Game: (965) Cleveland Indians at (966) Texas Rangers
Date/Time: Jun 17 2019 8:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Cleveland Indians -120
View Analysis
PLAY: (965) CLEVELAND 1st 5 innings -120
RATING: 3% PLAY
Cleveland is 8-3 L11 Games and tonight Mike Clevinger makes first start since April returning from 60 Day DL. I love taking veteran pitchers first game back off of the DL as you know they will be mentally focused for that first start. Texas returns home from Road trip and we love fading teams in that spot. Texas is 5-1 in Lance Lynn’s 6 homestarts but his ERA is 4.91 and his WHIP is 1.41 meaning Lynn has been very lucky. We will go 1st 5 innings with Cleveland as Clevinger will be on a pitch count tonight meaning he probably goes 5 or 6 innings.
TAKE CLEVELAND 1st 5 Inning Wager as MARCO’S 3% MLB PLAY
- MARCO’S 3% MLB PLAY
Game: (957) Milwaukee Brewers at (958) San Diego Padres
Date/Time: Jun 17 2019 10:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Milwaukee Brewers +105
View Analysis
PLAY: (957) MILWAUKEE +105
RATING: 3% PLAY
Milwaukee continues their West Coast road trip now 2-3 as they head to San Diego. Padres return home from road trip that ended with 4 wacky games in Colorado. San Diego scored 44 runs in the 4 game series but gave up 48 splitting the series. The San Diego bullpen pitched 24 2/3 of the 37 innings in the series. Milwaukee sends Chacin to the mound who was rocked for 7 runs in his last start in 2 2/3 innings at Pitts on May 31st but was then placed on the 10 Day injured list with lower back problems so I am throwing that start out. Chacin has a career 11-4 record at Petco Park with a 2.28 ERA in 21 games (19 starts). He is 7-2 against the Padres in 16 appearance (12 starts) with a 3.52 ERA, and a 1.21 WHIP.
TAKE MILWAUKEE as MARCO’S 3% MLB PLAY
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- Marco D
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