Saturday 6-22-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 372191

    #31
    Betting Recap - Week 1
    Joe Williams

    League Betting Notes

    -- Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 SU in Week 1
    -- Underdogs went 3-1 ATS in Week 1
    -- Home/road teams posted a 2-2 SU record in Week 1
    -- Away teams posted a 3-1 ATS record in Week 1
    -- The 'Over' went 3-1 in Week 1

    Analysis

    Ottawa (1-0) picked up an impressive 32-28 road victory against Calgary (0-1), a little bit of revenge on their rivals' field after losing the Grey Cup to the Stampeders last November. 'Over' (50) bettors were in good shape after 49 points were on the board through three quarters. The fourth quarter was interesting, though, as the Stamps actually led 28-21 before getting blanked 11-0 in the first period.

    Winnipeg (1-0) spent most of the week as an underdog, including opening as a two-point 'dog in Vancouver. The money came in on the Blue Bombers, and that was a wise investment. They won on the road against the BC Lions (0-1), taking a 33-23 decision. The game started off a bit slow with just three points on the board in the first quarter, but they posted 28 total points in the second quarter to snap things back on track.

    In the first game of the weekend, Hamilton (1-0) got off on the right foot with a win and narrow cover against Saskatchewan (0-1), winning 23-17 as five-point favorite as the 'under' (48.5) connected.

    We'll save the bad beat of the weekend for last, however. Edmonton (1-0) posted a 32-25 win against Montreal (0-1). It was bad for 'under' (49.5) bettors, who felt like they were in good shape with an 18-8 score on the board through three quarter. The teams combined for 31 points in the fourth quarter. Edmonton was covering for a majority of the game, but Montreal actually tied it up late before Edmonton picked up a touchdown with 1:07 to go.

    Team Betting Notes

    -- The Roughriders will look to cool off the RedBlacks in Week 2. Saskatchewan enters just 1-4 ATS in the past five road games, and they're 0-5 ATS in the past five Week 2 battles. They're also just 2-5 ATS in the past seven games in the month of June. In this series, Ottawa is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings, with the 'over' 6-2 in the past eight.

    -- Ottawa enters 5-1 ATS in the past six games, and 4-1 ATS in the past five outings at home. They're also 7-1 ATS in the past eight outings in the month of June, while going 4-0 ATS in the past four in Week 2.

    -- The BC Lions travel to meet Edmonton on Friday night. The Lions are 0-4 ATS in the past four games overall, and they're 5-11 ATS in the past 16 road outings and 3-7 ATS in the past 10 in Week 2.

    -- The Esks haven't been much better against the number, going 2-5 ATS in the past seven overall, including their bad beat non-cover in Week 1. They're also 1-4 ATS in the past five in Week 2, and 2-6 ATS in the past eight outings against teams with a losing overall record.

    -- The over is 4-0-1 in the past five meetings between BC and Edmonton, and 4-1 in the past five meetings in Edmonton.

    -- Toronto makes their 2019 regular-season debut, and they look to snap an 0-7 ATS against teams from the East to close out the 2018 campaign. The Tiger-Cats are 0-4 ATS in their past four against East teams, so something's gotta give.

    -- Hamilton has destroyed Toronto in recent seasons, at least against the number, going 12-3 ATS in the past 15 meetings, and 8-2 ATS in their past 10 trips up the QEW. The over is 4-0 in the past four meetings, and 4-1-1 in the past six battles in TO.
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    • Can'tPickAWinner
      Super Moderator
      • Nov 2012
      • 372191

      #32
      CFL Betting Notes - Week 2
      David Schwab

      The CFL returned to action this past weekend and the favorites went 3-1 straight-up with an even 2-2 record ATS. Hamilton got things started on Thursday night with a 23-17 victory against Saskatchewan to cover as a 4 ½-point home favorite. On Friday night, Edmonton got past Montreal 32-25, but the Eskimos could not cover as eight-point favorites at home.

      Saturday’s doubleheader of betting action started off with Ottawa stunning Calgary 32-28 as an 8 ½-point road underdog in a rematch of last season’s Grey Cup title game. Winnipeg scored another victory for the road teams with a 33-23 victory against British Columbia as a slight one-point favorite.


      Saturday, June 22

      Hamilton Tiger-Cats (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) at Toronto Argonauts (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)
      Point-spread: Hamilton -2 ½
      Total: 52

      Game Overview

      Expectations for the Tiger-Cats were running high heading in to Week 1 as favorites to win the East this season. Jeremiah Masoli threw for the second-most yards last year in the CFL and he started this season with 169 yards passing and one score while completing 17 of his 28 attempts in Thursday’s win.

      Brandon Banks had a big game catching the ball with six receptions for 77 yards and a score. Hamilton gained just 63 yards on the ground while allowing 172 rushing yards on defense.

      Saturday will be Corey Chamblin’s debut as Toronto’s new head coach. He was the defensive coordinator for the Argonauts in their run to the 2017 Grey Cup title. Following the team’s fall from grace to just four victories last season, there is definitely some work to be done to get back on track.

      James Franklin will get the start at quarterback, but he could be on a short leash if things get out of hand early. One of his top targets should be wide receiver Derel Walker, who came to Toronto from Edmonton this past offseason.

      Betting Trends

      -- The Tiger-Cats have covered ATS in eight of their last 10 road games against the Argonauts and the total has gone OVER in five of the last six meetings in Toronto. Hamilton also has a 4-1 edge both SU and ATS in the last five meetings overall.
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      • Can'tPickAWinner
        Super Moderator
        • Nov 2012
        • 372191

        #33
        CFL
        Long Sheet

        Week 2

        Saturday, June 22

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        HAMILTON (1 - 0) at TORONTO (0-0) - 6/22/2019, 7:00 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        HAMILTON is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
        TORONTO is 22-45 ATS (-27.5 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 52 since 1996.

        Head-to-Head Series History
        HAMILTON is 4-2 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
        HAMILTON is 4-2 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
        4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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        • Can'tPickAWinner
          Super Moderator
          • Nov 2012
          • 372191

          #34
          CFL

          Week 2


          Trend Report

          Saturday, June 22

          Hamilton Tiger-Cats
          Hamilton is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
          Hamilton is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
          The total has gone OVER in 9 of Hamilton's last 12 games
          Hamilton is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
          Hamilton is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
          The total has gone OVER in 5 of Hamilton's last 5 games on the road
          Hamilton is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
          Hamilton is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Hamilton's last 5 games when playing Toronto
          Hamilton is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Toronto
          Hamilton is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
          The total has gone OVER in 5 of Hamilton's last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
          Toronto Argonauts
          Toronto is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
          Toronto is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games
          The total has gone OVER in 6 of Toronto's last 9 games
          The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games at home
          Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Hamilton
          Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Hamilton
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Hamilton
          Toronto is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Hamilton
          Toronto is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Hamilton
          The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing at home against Hamilton
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          • Can'tPickAWinner
            Super Moderator
            • Nov 2012
            • 372191

            #35
            CFL
            Dunkel


            Saturday, June 22

            Hamilton @ Toronto


            Game 693-694
            June 22, 2019 @ 4:00 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            Hamilton
            113.535
            Toronto
            101.050
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Hamilton
            by 12 1/2
            54
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            Hamilton
            by 2 1/2
            52
            Dunkel Pick:
            Hamilton
            (-2 1/2); Over
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            • Can'tPickAWinner
              Super Moderator
              • Nov 2012
              • 372191

              #36
              CFL

              Week 2


              Hamilton (1-0) (-3.5, 52) @ Toronto (0-0)— Season opener for Toronto, downside of having a 9-team league. Ti-Cats won last three series games SU, by 14-11-14 points, covered 12 of last 15: they won last two visits here, 34-20/36-25. Winning side scored 34+ points in last five series games. Last six Hamilton-Toronto games went over. Hamilton held off Saskatchewan 23-17 LW, despite being outgained 366-232; they held Riders to four points in second half, after trailing 13-10 at halftime.
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              • Can'tPickAWinner
                Super Moderator
                • Nov 2012
                • 372191

                #37
                CFL Week 2 preview, odds, picks and predictions: Argonauts add more weapons
                Rohit Ponnaiya

                James Wilder Jr. should play a major role for the Toronto Argonauts as they take on the Hamilton Tiger-Cats in their CFL season opener on Saturday.

                We went 2-2 in our betting predictions to kick off Week 1 of the CFL, which is kind of like ordering a salad in a steakhouse, sufficient but disappointing. We head back to the board for the matchups in Week 2 with Mike Reilly making his return to Edmonton and Toronto playing its season opener against next-door neighbor Hamilton.

                What did we learn from Week 1? Underdogs still rule early in the season with 'dogs going 3-1 ATS. Overs, on the other hand, went 3-1 reversing a trend which saw them go 1-3 in Week 1 during each of the last two years. We break down the odds and give you our best bets and predictions for the three games in Week 2 of the CFL.

                Week 1 Picks: 2-2

                Line: Hamilton -2.5, O/U 52
                Time: Saturday, June 22, 4:00 p.m. ET

                The Argonauts will play their first game of the season on Saturday. After winning the Grey Cup in 2017 they tied for the fewest wins in the league last year, going 4-14. All four of those wins came at home, but they took the L in both of their home tilts with the Ti-Cats, losing 36-25 in September and 34-20 in October.

                Hamilton QB Jeremiah Masoli had a rough start to the season, completing 17 of 28 passes for 169 yards. But we predicted as much since he was going up against a tough Saskatchewan defense that shut him down in two games last season as well. This is still the same QB that threw for 5209 yards for the No. 1 rated offense in 2018 and Hamilton's offense has stayed more or less intact - which is a rare sight in a league with as much offseason turnover as the CFL.

                The Argos allowed a league-worst 560 points last year and despite adding DB Kevin Fogg will likely not be much better. Masoli struggled against some of the better defenses in the league last year but absolutely tore up the Argos, averaging 343.3 yards through the air and tossing 12 TDs in three games.

                On offense, Toronto should be improved from the unit that scored the second-fewest points in the league last year at 20.5 per game. They added WR Derel Walker (875 receving yards in just 11 games in 2018), RB Tyrell Sutton and former Florida Gator speedster Chris Rainey ( 452 rushing and receiving yards with an additional 2,112 yards on returns), along with first overall draft pick OL Shane Richards from Oklahoma State.

                Argo running back James Wilder Jr, one of the top HS recruits in the U.S. class of 2011, is expected to play after leaving Toronto to deal with a family issue. Wilder has been on the verge of a breakout campaign for a couple seasons and missed five games with various ailments in 2018. Quarterback James Franklin also played with more consistency towards the end of last season. Take the Over.

                PICK: Over 52
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                • Can'tPickAWinner
                  Super Moderator
                  • Nov 2012
                  • 372191

                  #38
                  F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Penn National
                  PURCHASE
                  Penn National - Race 3

                  W-P-S / Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) / $0.20 Penn Pick 6 (Races 3-8)


                  Maiden Claiming $16,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 70 • Purse: $17,000 • Post: 6:55P
                  (PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000, IF FOR $14,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. PREFERENCE TO HORSES WITH THE MOST STARTS AT PENN NATIONAL SINCE MAY 31ST 2018. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT ONE MILE SEVENTY YARDS.).
                  Contenders

                  Race Analysis
                  P#
                  Horse
                  Morn
                  Line

                  Accept
                  Odds


                  Race Type: Dominant Trailer. CANDYCREET is the Dominant Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * RUCKUS: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CANDYCREET : Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MESSY BAKER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
                  1
                  RUCKUS
                  2/1

                  7/2
                  5
                  CANDYCREET
                  4/1

                  4/1
                  2
                  MESSY BAKER
                  3/1

                  6/1




                  P#

                  Horse (In Running Style Order)

                  Post

                  Morn
                  Line

                  Running Style

                  Good
                  Class

                  Good
                  Speed

                  Early Figure

                  Finish Figure

                  Platinum
                  Figure
                  7
                  NORTH STARR ROAD
                  7

                  5/1
                  Alternator/Front-runner
                  63

                  60

                  68.2

                  40.8

                  31.8
                  5
                  CANDYCREET
                  5

                  4/1
                  Trailer
                  65

                  58

                  104.3

                  67.3

                  63.3
                  2
                  MESSY BAKER
                  2

                  3/1
                  Trailer
                  69

                  70

                  42.8

                  61.5

                  54.5
                  1
                  RUCKUS
                  1

                  2/1
                  Alternator/Trailer
                  79

                  68

                  76.0

                  64.8

                  60.3
                  4
                  KISS THE SPIDER
                  4

                  9/2
                  Alternator/Trailer
                  0

                  0

                  67.3

                  60.7

                  51.2
                  6
                  GOHARA
                  6

                  9/2
                  Alternator/Non-contender
                  78

                  52

                  46.8

                  46.8

                  38.8
                  3
                  LIL MAJESTY
                  3

                  10/1
                  Alternator/Non-contender
                  0

                  0

                  35.1

                  35.1

                  21.1
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                  • Can'tPickAWinner
                    Super Moderator
                    • Nov 2012
                    • 372191

                    #39
                    F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Evangeline Downs
                    PURCHASE
                    Evangeline Downs - Race 1

                    Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) Pick 4 (Races 1-2-3-4)


                    Claiming $4,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 81 • Purse: $8,500 • Post: 5:50P
                    FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE DECEMBER 22, 2018. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MAY 22, 2019 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.
                    Contenders

                    Race Analysis
                    P#
                    Horse
                    Morn
                    Line

                    Accept
                    Odds


                    Race Type: Lone Front-runner. CHIEF ENVOY is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * ONLY LIQUOR: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. CHIEF ENVOY: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. SPRING VALUE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. WATCH MY SMOKE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. DIXIE BEAT: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
                    6
                    ONLY LIQUOR
                    5/2

                    9/2
                    4
                    CHIEF ENVOY
                    4/1

                    6/1
                    2
                    SPRING VALUE
                    7/2

                    8/1
                    3
                    WATCH MY SMOKE
                    5/1

                    8/1
                    1
                    DIXIE BEAT
                    6/1

                    10/1




                    P#

                    Horse (In Running Style Order)

                    Post

                    Morn
                    Line

                    Running Style

                    Good
                    Class

                    Good
                    Speed

                    Early Figure

                    Finish Figure

                    Platinum
                    Figure
                    4
                    CHIEF ENVOY
                    4

                    4/1
                    Front-runner
                    78

                    68

                    65.4

                    60.4

                    49.9
                    7
                    BITSY'S CARLOS
                    7

                    5/1
                    Stalker
                    80

                    69

                    59.5

                    61.4

                    52.4
                    1
                    DIXIE BEAT
                    1

                    6/1
                    Stalker
                    78

                    71

                    55.2

                    69.0

                    59.5
                    6
                    ONLY LIQUOR
                    6

                    5/2
                    Alternator/Stalker
                    85

                    74

                    76.4

                    74.8

                    71.3
                    3
                    WATCH MY SMOKE
                    3

                    5/1
                    Alternator/Stalker
                    80

                    68

                    63.8

                    78.2

                    69.2
                    2
                    SPRING VALUE
                    2

                    7/2
                    Trailer
                    80

                    77

                    26.2

                    71.4

                    67.9
                    5
                    PERSONAL DOUBLE
                    5

                    12/1
                    Alternator/Non-contender
                    79

                    76

                    69.7

                    61.2

                    51.7
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                    • Can'tPickAWinner
                      Super Moderator
                      • Nov 2012
                      • 372191

                      #40
                      Handicapped by The Walker Group at Arizona Downs
                      PURCHASE
                      Always check program numbers.
                      Odds shown are morning line odds.

                      Race 4 - Claiming - 4.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $8000 Class Rating: 69

                      FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MAY 22 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000


                      RECOMMENDED CHOICES
                      The Walker Group Picks

                      # 2 DREAMY EYES 4/1

                      # 3 AIM HAPPY 6/5

                      # 8 OLD TOY 9/2

                      DREAMY EYES is the most favorable bet in this race. The speed rating of 73 from her latest race looks strong in here. AIM HAPPY - Ought to be considered a solid contender on earnings per start at the distance/surface alone. Must be used in the exotic bets. OLD TOY - This mare is coming back almost immediately to the track. Has performed solidly lately in sprint races, posting a nifty 64 avg speed figure.
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                      • Can'tPickAWinner
                        Super Moderator
                        • Nov 2012
                        • 372191

                        #41
                        Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
                        PURCHASE

                        Bar

                        Monmouth Park - Race #1 - Post: 12:50pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $26,000 Class Rating: 93

                        Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

                        #9 TWEET KITTEN (ML=8/1)
                        #8 DOUBLE DEEP (ML=7/2)
                        #5 SUMMER MISCHIEF (ML=3/1)
                        #4 HUSTLE N HEART (ML=4/1)


                        TWEET KITTEN - Jock hops back atop after getting to know the horse by riding last out. That's always a positive sign. This racer should go right out to the early lead and may never look back. Could gate-to-wire the field. Earnings per race entered is something that I believe can be a key factor. This horse is ranked numero uno in this bunch. DOUBLE DEEP - Trainer Navarro gave this gelding a good stiff workout. Last one was 2nd fastest of the day. Horses out of the barn of Navarro have been strong on the turf. Should perform well right here. SUMMER MISCHIEF - This gelding is in top condition right now. Finished second last race out and comes back rapidly. Cibelli is solid in grass routes. This equine should have no rationalizations if he doesn't win. This jock and trainer's animals have been generating a beneficial return on investment. In the last race, ran the last quarter in less than 25 ticks. What that tells me is he can close well, and should be right there at the wire this time. Garnered a nice turf rating on May 26th at Monmouth Park. A repeat in this event, and this one has a great shot to win. HUSTLE N HEART - Diaz was aboard this gelding last time out and was impressed enough to take the animal right back. Diaz and Vitali perform well when they team up. It's hard to beat a +333 return on investment for a rider and conditioner. Shipped in on May 19th to take the top prize here. Take right back again.

                        Vulnerable Contenders: #6 SIXBITS (ML=5/1), #7 SLOT RECEIVER (ML=6/1),

                        SIXBITS - This gelding finished out of the money on May 27th and wasn't even close in the last race either. The fig last race out doesn't fit very well in this clash when I look at the class rating of today's event. Mark this horse as a likely underlay. SLOT RECEIVER - Just can't invest in this runner. Didn't show me anything positive last race out or on Apr 6th.



                        STRAIGHT WAGERS:
                        #9 TWEET KITTEN is going to be the play if we are getting 4/1 or better

                        EXACTA WAGERS:
                        Box [8,9]

                        TRIFECTA WAGERS:
                        Box [5,8,9] Total Cost: $6

                        SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
                        [5,8,9] with [5,8,9] with [4,5,8,9,10] with [4,5,8,9,10] Total Cost: $36
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                        Comment

                        • Can'tPickAWinner
                          Super Moderator
                          • Nov 2012
                          • 372191

                          #42
                          Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Louisiana Downs
                          PURCHASE

                          06/22/19, LAD, Race 1, 3.15 CT
                          6F [Dirt] 1.08.02 CLAIMING. Purse $8,500.
                          Claiming Price $12,500, if for $10,000, allowed 2 lbs. FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLDAND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES
                          Daily Double / Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / .50 Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3)
                          Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
                          Rating Pgm# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags
                          100.0000 5 Chatain's Flyer 7/2 Lozada C Lara Jorge JSFEC
                          098.0767 1 Rosemary Beach 2-1 Green A Cates Al W
                          096.4271 3 Mitch's Pins 7/2 Tejera E A Dunn Henry Ray T
                          096.2472 6 Lucky Taylor 3-1 Martinez O Briley Lonnie L
                          093.8977 4 Hopeitsamiracle 5-1 Castillo A Melancon Donald
                          092.4631 2 Sattersfield 15-1 Pivaral G Daniels Connie L.
                          After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit MUST be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
                          Profits are for $2 Win bets. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to LAD.
                          Pgm# Profit ROI WPC W# Occ Profitable Conditions If Top Rated Horse
                          5 108.80 1.26 40.38 84 208 [All Surfaces] Best Finish
                          1 46.20 1.19 33.33 41 123 [Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Best Workouts
                          3 34.50 1.14 36.36 44 121 [Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Weight Is Greater Than Today
                          6 35.40 1.16 38.05 43 113 [All Dirt] Best LeadPack
                          4 1.20 1.01 32.20 19 59 [Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Race Surface Not fst/wf or fm/hd
                          2 35.80 1.25 29.58 21 71 [Dirt Not_MdnMClm] First Race After 45 Days Off
                          * Dynamic condition may change before the race. Confirm before using stats for top rated horse.
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                          Comment

                          • Can'tPickAWinner
                            Super Moderator
                            • Nov 2012
                            • 372191

                            #43
                            Handicapped by The Walker Group at Emerald Downs
                            PURCHASE
                            Always check program numbers.
                            Odds shown are morning line odds.

                            Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $18500 Class Rating: 75

                            FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.


                            RECOMMENDED CHOICES
                            The Walker Group Picks

                            # 6 ALITTLEBITOFHEAVEN 4/1

                            # 1 LA PRINCIPESSA 5/1

                            # 2 LADY CAMPBELL 9/2

                            ALITTLEBITOFHEAVEN is the best wager in this race. Should be given consideration in this race if only for the quite good speed rating recorded in the last race. Is a sharp contender based on numbers posted lately under today's conditions. Recent figs for the jock - 16 win percent - make this filly stand out in this group of animals. LA PRINCIPESSA - This choice will feel the med change - with second time Lasix today. Should be given a shot - I like the figures from the last affair. LADY CAMPBELL - This racer is at the top in this group in earnings per start at the distance/surface. Is worth considering and may be a bet - strong speed figures (67 average) at today's distance and surface lately.
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                            • Can'tPickAWinner
                              Super Moderator
                              • Nov 2012
                              • 372191

                              #44
                              Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
                              PURCHASE

                              Bar

                              Lone Star Park - Race #2 - Post: 3:04pm - Maiden Special - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,000 Class Rating: 65

                              Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

                              #7 ABSTRACT PAYNTER (ML=6/1)
                              #1 DARK HEDGES (ML=6/5)


                              ABSTRACT PAYNTER - It looks like Quinonez had to come to know this gelding on May 31st when riding him for the first time. Back on board again today. This rider/handler duo has been producing a very positive ROI, right at +40. DARK HEDGES - This colt likes to be near the lead. Today's affair is a shorter distance and should aid his chances of winning. This thoroughbred could be tough this time, especially since Eramia rode in the last race and now should be more familiar with this one. This colt is in nice physical condition. Finished second on May 31st. This colt is tops in earnings per race. Take a good look at this horse before the race.

                              Vulnerable Contenders: #5 SHELLEY'S DREAM (ML=5/2), #2 NOVA NOTION (ML=4/1),

                              SHELLEY'S DREAM - Not easy to back any questionable contender in a sprint event if he hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last two months. NOVA NOTION - If he goes off anywhere near the morning line odds of 4/1, I'll have to pass.

                              Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - ABSTRACT PAYNTER - After a 'vacation', has had a few races and today he enters a sprint race. Should be back in form, so I expect this horse to perform well today.





                              STRAIGHT WAGERS:
                              Bet on #7 ABSTRACT PAYNTER to win if we can get at least 9/5 odds

                              EXACTA WAGERS:
                              Box [1,7]

                              TRIFECTA WAGERS:
                              Pass

                              SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
                              Pass
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                              • Can'tPickAWinner
                                Super Moderator
                                • Nov 2012
                                • 372191

                                #45
                                Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Churchill Downs
                                PURCHASE

                                06/22/19, CD, Race 1, 12.45 ET
                                7F [Dirt] 1.20.02 CLAIMING. Purse $38,000.
                                Claiming Price $40,000 (Races Where Entered For $32,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS
                                Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) - Pick 5 (Races 1-5)
                                Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
                                Rating Pgm# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags
                                100.0000 7 Voo Doo Doc 4-1 Morales E Pish Danny SFEC
                                097.6283 5 Charlie'sarchangel 4-1 Mena M Amoss Thomas M. T
                                097.0679 3 Ludington 9/2 Baze T Hartman Chris A.
                                096.7147 2 Brush Country 12-1 Cohen D Diodoro Robertino
                                096.5984 4 The Sicarii 5-1 Saez G Quartarolo Anthony T. W
                                096.4941 6 I'm Busy 6-1 Lanerie C J Forster Grant T. L
                                095.9767 1 Tobacco Road 2-1 Santana. Jr. R Asmussen Steven M. J
                                After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit MUST be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
                                Profits are for $2 Win bets. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to CD.
                                Pgm# Profit ROI WPC W# Occ Profitable Conditions If Top Rated Horse
                                7 15.00 1.33 30.43 7 23 [Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Morning Line Odds Greater Than or Equal to 4
                                5 15.00 1.33 30.43 7 23 [Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Morning Line Odds Greater Than or Equal to 4
                                3 15.00 1.33 30.43 7 23 [Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Morning Line Odds Greater Than or Equal to 4
                                4 15.00 1.33 30.43 7 23 [Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Morning Line Odds Greater Than or Equal to 4
                                6 15.00 1.33 30.43 7 23 [Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Morning Line Odds Greater Than or Equal to 4
                                1 6.60 1.08 21.95 9 41 [Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Morning Line Odds Greater Than or Equal to 2
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