Service Plays Tuesday 7/2/19

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JR ODONNELL

3* Seattle +125

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony George

4 Units - #910 LA Dodgers RUN LINE -1.5 (-125) over Arizona *10:10 EST

Arizona has a winning record on the road, but tonight's D-Backs starting pitcher Taylor Clarke has been anything but effective. While talented, Taylor's been erratic, with a ERA of almost 7.00 ERA in eight starts and at almost 8.00 in his last three outings. Taylor's walking too many and given up a homer every four innings and allowing 1.23 hits an inning. The Dodgers are 34-9 at home and 24-5 vs. RH starters, winning by 2.9 RPG and are the best run line play on the Tuesday board.

[B*mb07]

Executive - all 250% Brewers Phillies A's

[dawggy]

SPORTS DATA QUERY GROup

• Game: (903) Miami Marlins at (904) Washington Nationals
  Date/Time: Jul 2 2019 7:05 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
  Play Rating: 2%
  Play: Washington Nationals -194
  
  View Analysis
  
  
• Game: (913) Boston Red Sox at (914) Toronto Blue Jays
  Date/Time: Jul 2 2019 7:07 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Westgate
  Play Rating: 3%
  Play: Boston Red Sox -156
  
  View Analysis
  
  listed pitchers
  
• Game: (905) Milwaukee Brewers at (906) Cincinnati Reds
  Date/Time: Jul 2 2019 7:10 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Cincinnati Reds -105

• Game: (925) New York Yankees at (926) New York Mets
  Date/Time: Jul 2 2019 7:10 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: New York Yankees -145
  
  View Analysis
  
  A major contributing factor who wins a baseball game is confidence. Confident that their starter will put in a good performance and confidence that they can come back from a deficit and win, even if their opponent scores some runs. The league as a whole is 23-0 SU as a rested favorite in a series opener when they are off a game as a road favorite and they came back from a deficit to win in their starter’s last start. The average margin of victory is a whopping 4.48 runs.
  The Yankees themselves are 15-0 SU as a favorite of more than 130 when they are off a game as a favorite in which they allowed 12-plus hits and it is before the All-Star break and 12-0 SU as a rested favorite in the first game of a road series when they are off a win as a favorite in which they trailed and it is before the All-Star break.
  Both these teams had multiple multiple-run innings in their last game. This favors the Yankees, as they are 9-0 SU as a rested road favorite in the first game of a series off a game as a favorite in which they had multiple multiple-run innings, while the Mets are 0-9 SU off a game as a favorite in which they had multiple multiple-run innings.
  Finally, the Mets have had a lot of trouble recovering from a come-from-behind win as a home favorite, as they are 0-14 SU as a home dog after a regulation win as a home favorite in which they came back from a deficit.
  It appears to us that many are overestimating the effect that playing in London will have on the Yankees. The flight time from New York to San Francisco is 6.5 hours and the flight time from New York to London is 7 hours – a trivial difference. And the Yankees have rest. And James Paxson didn’t play in London.
  Plenty of line value on the Yankees here.
  
• Game: (927) Houston Astros at (928) Colorado Rockies
  Date/Time: Jul 2 2019 8:10 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Heritage
  Play Rating: 3%
  Play: Houston Astros +117
  
  View Analysis
  
  listed pitchers
  
• Game: (911) San Francisco Giants at (912) San Diego Padres
  Date/Time: Jul 2 2019 10:10 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
  Play Rating: 3%
  Play: San Diego Padres -151
  
  View Analysis
  
  LISTED PITCHERS

[dawggy]

DR. CHUCKBASKETBALL PLAYS

• Game: (631) Atlanta Dream at (632) Minnesota Lynx
  Date/Time: Jul 2 2019 8:00 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
  Play Rating: 2%
  Play: Atlanta Dream 7.5 (-115)
  
  View Analysis
  

BASEBALL PLAYS

• Game: (917) Los Angeles Angels at (918) Texas Rangers
  Date/Time: Jul 2 2019 8:05 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: William Hill
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: 1H Total Under 6.0 (-105)
  
  View Analysis
  
  Suarez v. Minor
  We had this as our big feature game from Monday night and the tragedy that struck the Angels and the sports world occurred with the very untimely death of 27 year old starting pitcher Tyler Skaggs. A friend of mine in this business happens to be a close friend of the young man and happened to have been in his wedding just in December of 2018. The kid had promise both in his professional and personal life and being taken so young is a very painful loss. It may be considered borderline impossible to attempt to cap something as ridiculous as a baseball game wager just 24 hours in the wake of such a thing, but somehow these 50 guys and their coaching staffs are tasked with putting together a lineup and plan to play a damned game tonight as regularly scheduled.
  Where we look in such a ridiculous spot is in the vicinity of where we were heading last evening. We took the Minor side of things with him in a groove, the young lefty on the mound for the Angels, and the lineup being woeful of late against LHP...taking just the ML of the first 5 on Texas. Tonight we are altering slightly our focus and looking at the Under first 5 and in a way of a fade of motivation, interest, and overall physical ability (as it relates to the emotional aspect of the human condition). I liked the Under last night but at 6 (or 6.5 if you're lucky!) the value is immense with these 2 lefties and the overall prowess of desire to play a game on a field tonight in front of thousands of screaming fans who do not feel the true pain of what happened just yesterday afternoon. Aside from the loss of Tyler, these 2 teams rank 28th and 30th in metric batting as a whole team against left handed pitching since June 15th. The Rangers side of it being so bad they actually hammered down a -13.2 wRAA and an absymal .222 wOBA. They might as well almost have not even walked to the plate with their personal song they've been so poor. The Angels are only slightly better throwing down the gauntlet to the tune of -7.4 wRAA and .249 wOBA.
  These 2 teams since the middle of last month have combined for nearly 21 weighted runs WORSE than the average team in such circumstances!
  I left that last sentence alone, because if anything adds to the heat and the specific pitchers, and the death, and the travel, and the families, and the unknown cause of death, and the sudden nature of it all, with 24 hours later a game must commence...this stat adds to it wondering if a run might cross the plate against Suarez and Minor for the duration of how long Ausmus and Woodward leave them on the bump.
  On the Suarez front...as we have discussed Minor ad nauseam (STUD)...he is one of the starters for the Angels being given a chance to do it alone. This will be just his 5th start and is likely the Angels top starting pitching prospect (#3 organizationally) but does not just open games or have an opener for him, he will get the ball and keep it as long as he keeps the Rangers lineup at bay. He now (no good way to say it) has an even bigger incentive to go out and just pitch his heart out...both for his lost teammate, his teammate's grieving family, his teammates who knew Skaggs like a brother, and for his positioning on the roster!
  I fully expect both starters to match each other in goose eggs hung on the board, especially through the first time through the lineup...when the freshness and shock are still at the forefront of playing a game during all the goings on...Minor has proven to be able to get through the lineup of most opponents multiple more times if needed, and Suarez will have the help of an oft-used bullpen to aide...while we just need at worst a 3-2 game heading to the 6th inning. Vegas is telling us that is what they expect, but I sure question where this came from and if they punted on being able to guess any sort of idea of what this might look like tonight.
  
• Game: (919) Detroit Tigers at (920) Chicago White Sox
  Date/Time: Jul 2 2019 8:10 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
  Play Rating: 3%
  Play: 1H Detroit Tigers -117
  
  View Analysis
  
  Boyd v. Lopez
  Simplistic system fading the Vegas move of full game dog yet first 5 chalk. Matthew Boyd is as nasty as they come...but he gives up too many dingers. His K/BB ratio is nothing short of fantastic at about 11.5/1.7 and his FIP/xFIP is dead in line with his ERA...likely why the Sox are slight favorites full game...as Boyd is unlikely to get past the 6th inning no matter the progress.
  Reginald Lopez on the other end has the opposite looking metrics...this play is pretty simple...but still relies on Detroit managing to cross the plate at least a couple times no matter how bad the opposing starter is objectively. Fading the starter in all the MLB with the worst xFIP should be an easy winner...and Boyd is FAR superior to Lopez...but this line reflects the incredibly woeful Tiger bats!
  Still the value facing the sabermetric worst starter with a guy on the mound 2 full points better is not to be passed on...
  
• Game: (921) Cleveland Indians at (922) Kansas City Royals
  Date/Time: Jul 2 2019 8:15 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Heritage
  Play Rating: 5%
  Play: 1H Cleveland Indians -0.5 (-140)

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[dawggy]

ROB VENOBASEBALL PLAYS

• Game: (913) Boston Red Sox at (914) Toronto Blue Jays
  Date/Time: Jul 2 2019 7:07 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Westgate
  Play Rating: 3%
  Play: Total Over 9.5 (-120)
  
  View Analysis
  
  
• Game: (915) Baltimore Orioles at (916) Tampa Bay Rays
  Date/Time: Jul 2 2019 7:10 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: William Hill
  Play Rating: 3%
  Play: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-145)
  
  View Analysis
  
  
• Game: (921) Cleveland Indians at (922) Kansas City Royals
  Date/Time: Jul 2 2019 8:15 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-115)
  
  View Analysis
  
  
• Game: (911) San Francisco Giants at (912) San Diego Padres
  Date/Time: Jul 2 2019 10:10 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Westgate
  Play Rating: 3%
  Play: San Diego Padres -1.5 (+125)
  
  View Analysis

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Seabass : 600 pirates , 400 Red Sox game over , 500 Phillies , 400 athletics game over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ANDRE GOMES

3* New York Mets +133


2* Philadelphia -114

2* Kansas City / Cleveland over 9

2* Colorado -126

[B*mb07]

Philly Guy - Phillies Cubs Brewers Red Sox Augie J - Phillies NYY over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Josh Nagel

Baltimore +1.5 +160

[Slick]

Teddy Covers
4% White Sox -104