Service Plays Thursday 7/4/19

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dirty Bear Sports

MLB:
TOR F5 +.5 -150 3u

MLB Season: 60-69-7 47% -46.05 units

[dawggy]

DR. CHUCK

BASEBALL PLAYS

Game: (913) Detroit Tigers at (914) Chicago White Sox
Date/Time: Jul 4 2019 2:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Detroit Tigers -119

View Analysis

Boyd v. Lopez

Most of today's write up is the same after both starters were held completely out of the doubleheader from yesterday and only added to my liking with the Tigers getting swept.

Game: (905) Chicago Cubs at (906) Pittsburgh Pirates
Date/Time: Jul 4 2019 4:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Chicago Cubs -113

View Analysis

Quintana v. Lyles

This play is on Vegas information...the 1st 5 line is heavier than the full game play on the Cubs. We are also playing this on a trend that is 43 of 55 in a spot with a team off a walk of loss to the opponent but favored.

Quintana was on the ropes early against the Reds, but they didn't break the dam after cracking it and then he settled down for a slaughter, with much help from an excellent defense behind him...I look for a similar aspect today where the Cubs bats will look to hit Lyles hard in just his second start back from the IL...after a mediocre (albeit "quality") first start back getting the loss in Milwaukee.

Game: (915) Minnesota Twins at (916) Oakland Athletics
Date/Time: Jul 4 2019 4:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Minnesota Twins -145

View Analysis

Berrios v. Anderson

I'll play your game Vegas, you rogue!

Game: (921) Los Angeles Angels at (922) Texas Rangers
Date/Time: Jul 4 2019 8:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Total Under 6.0 (-110)

View Analysis

Canning v. Lynn

The wind is blowing steadily inward this evening in Arlington and the 2 pitchers on the mound have been big pluses for each team's rotations. Canning for instance misses more bats on strikes that most any starter in the league at over 15% swing and miss rate, and only Snell and Castillo best Griffin Canning in overall contact rate of opposing hitters. He has a great K-BB rate at 20% near the tops in the league and specializes in the first couple times through the order...the 3rd time he faces an opposing lineup is the worst, thus we eliminate the full game play in this spot.

Lance Lynn speaks for himself at this point...the dude might win the Cy Young Award, leads the AL in WAR, has an excellent FIP that is below 3.00, and has a similar K-BB rate as Canning, meaning neither are likely to give out free passes (especially early) and clog the bases for hitters to have RISP at bat opportunities! I think this becomes an early pitcher's duel and barely allows a single run for either team through the first time around the batting orders...then we hold on for dear life with a high 6 in this same emotional, gut wrenching series for both these fatigued, emotiionally drained rosters!

Game: (909) San Diego Padres at (910) Los Angeles Dodgers
Date/Time: Jul 4 2019 9:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Los Angeles Dodgers -0.5 (-155)

View Analysis

Lamet v. Ryu

Welcome back to the big leagues Dinelson Lamet! You haven't pitched since the 2017 season in the MLB and your reward is to go to Chavez Ravine to face the murderer's row of offense and the likely Cy Young favorite of the NL for 2019....congrats! At both levels of the minors so far this season he has been a solid strike out pitcher and limiting walks...but he also is fortunate to have a .219 BABIP against, and has allowed almost a HR per every 3rd fly ball he allows on the mound! Dodget stadiun ain't no Petco park either, and the Dodger lineup specializes in hitting home runs!

Ryu has not looked great of late, and there is no guarantee the bullpens don't mess around with things here...the stud will be on the mound for all 5 half innings of this bet, and a single HR from Bellinger or Muncy or Turner or Pederson et al might do it for the lead after just 5 innings! Also in a spot where a team walked off in the final game of a series to start a new divisional series against a team who they are giving 2 dollars to....7-1 record last 8!

[swaminator]

PITCHING CHANGE - GAME 919-920

TORONTO BLUE JAYS - D LAW -R FOR M STROMAN -R

Kevin Rogers (VegasInsider)
MLB - Boston Red Sox
The Blue Jays knocked off the Red Sox last night, 6-3 as Toronto seeks the series win over Boston tonight. Marcus Stroman has handled the Red Sox lineup this season in two starts by allowing one run in two victories, including a win at Fenway Park in their last matchup. Hector Velasquez makes his first start since May for Boston as the Red Sox have won nine consecutive road series finales. I'll take Boston here as a short favorite.

MLB - Philadelphia Phillies

The Braves and Phillies have split the first two meetings in this series at SunTrust Park as the two NL East rivals wrap up their set tonight. Mike Soroka has been dynamic for the Braves this season at 9-1, but faces the Phillies for the first time this season. Zach Eflin pitched well in his last start at Miami, but the bullpen let him down in a 9-6 loss. Eflin has put together solid numbers in spite of a 7-7 record as he worth a look here as a road 'dog.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dwayne Bryant

5% Atl/Phi OVER 10.5

4% OVER Boston (no play due to pitching change)