Monday 7-15-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

MLB
Long Sheet

Monday, July 15

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LA DODGERS (62 - 33) at PHILADELPHIA (48 - 45) - 7:05 PM
CLAYTON KERSHAW (L) vs. ZACH EFLIN (R)
Top Trends for this game.
LA DODGERS are 23-25 (-19.6 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday over the last 3 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 115-87 (-18.1 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 451-457 (+45.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.
LA DODGERS are 29-12 (+13.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 3-0 (+3.0 Units) against PHILADELPHIA this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.0 Units)

CLAYTON KERSHAW vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
KERSHAW is 3-6 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 3.27 and a WHIP of 1.100.
His team's record is 7-8 (-5.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 9-5. (+3.3 units)

ZACH EFLIN vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
EFLIN is 0-2 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 9.18 and a WHIP of 1.740.
His team's record is 0-4 (-4.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-0. (+4.1 units)

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CINCINNATI (42 - 48) at CHICAGO CUBS (50 - 43) - 8:05 PM
LUIS CASTILLO (R) vs. KYLE HENDRICKS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 7-17 (-9.5 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 18-5 (+10.4 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 28-12 (+8.9 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters this season.
CINCINNATI is 29-21 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
CINCINNATI is 30-26 (+9.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1840-1875 (-271.0 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 989-871 (-150.2 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 129-113 (-29.8 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 230-222 (-52.3 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 890-817 (-158.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 6-3 (+4.2 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS this season
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.9 Units)

LUIS CASTILLO vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
CASTILLO is 3-2 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 3.35 and a WHIP of 1.186.
His team's record is 5-3 (+3.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-4. (-1.3 units)

KYLE HENDRICKS vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
HENDRICKS is 6-2 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 3.31 and a WHIP of 1.160.
His team's record is 9-6 (-0.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 8-6. (+1.5 units)

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ATLANTA (57 - 37) at MILWAUKEE (48 - 46) - 8:10 PM
MAX FRIED (L) vs. ADRIAN HOUSER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 150-117 (+19.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 21-9 (+13.8 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 66-49 (+14.3 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 66-54 (+16.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 28-18 (+13.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 57-37 (+14.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 29-18 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
ATLANTA is 42-28 (+11.1 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ATLANTA is 23-15 (+9.1 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters this season.
ATLANTA is 35-21 (+11.3 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
ATLANTA is 68-57 (+18.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 27-32 (-13.0 Units) against the money line in night games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 2-1 (+1.0 Units) against MILWAUKEE this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.8 Units)

MAX FRIED vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
FRIED is 1-1 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 4.00 and a WHIP of 1.222.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-0. (+2.0 units)

ADRIAN HOUSER vs. ATLANTA since 1997
No recent starts.

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PITTSBURGH (44 - 48) at ST LOUIS (46 - 45) - 8:15 PM
JOE MUSGROVE (R) vs. JACK FLAHERTY (R)
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 44-48 (+3.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 22-14 (+10.4 Units) against the money line in July games over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 61-54 (+15.8 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 35-34 (+6.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
FLAHERTY is 18-28 (-17.7 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-3 (+1.5 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.8 Units)

JOE MUSGROVE vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
MUSGROVE is 1-3 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 6.95 and a WHIP of 1.364.
His team's record is 1-3 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-2. (-1.2 units)

JACK FLAHERTY vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
FLAHERTY is 3-1 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 2.48 and a WHIP of 1.000.
His team's record is 4-1 (+2.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-3. (-2.4 units)

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SAN FRANCISCO (43 - 49) at COLORADO (46 - 46) - 8:40 PM
DERECK RODRIGUEZ (R) vs. CHI CHI GONZALEZ (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 5-4 (+1.1 Units) against COLORADO this season
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.8 Units)

DERECK RODRIGUEZ vs. COLORADO since 1997
RODRIGUEZ is 0-1 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 1.50 and a WHIP of 1.250.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.1 units)

CHI CHI GONZALEZ vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
GONZALEZ is 0-1 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 5.40 and a WHIP of 2.000.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

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TAMPA BAY (55 - 40) at NY YANKEES (59 - 32) - 7:05 PM
BLAKE SNELL (L) vs. JAMES PAXTON (L)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 59-32 (+11.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
NY YANKEES are 15-2 (+11.9 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season.
NY YANKEES are 31-10 (+14.4 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
NY YANKEES are 26-12 (+14.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
TAMPA BAY is 145-112 (+22.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 33-23 (+10.8 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 21-4 (+18.8 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 87-56 (+21.8 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 61-61 (+11.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 23-14 (+16.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
SNELL is 18-8 (+11.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
NY YANKEES is 9-4 (+6.3 Units) against TAMPA BAY this season
6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.5 Units, Under=-0.3 Units)

BLAKE SNELL vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
SNELL is 3-6 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 4.62 and a WHIP of 1.523.
His team's record is 6-9 (-3.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 8-6. (+1.2 units)

JAMES PAXTON vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
PAXTON is 3-1 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.24 and a WHIP of 1.040.
His team's record is 3-1 (+2.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-1. (+2.0 units)

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TORONTO (35 - 59) at BOSTON (50 - 43) - 7:10 PM
TRENT THORNTON (R) vs. RICK PORCELLO (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 35-59 (-16.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TORONTO is 17-36 (-16.7 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
TORONTO is 20-41 (-20.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
BOSTON is 130-69 (+28.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
PORCELLO is 99-53 (+26.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997. (Team's Record)
BOSTON is 50-43 (-16.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BOSTON is 21-22 (-17.4 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
BOSTON is 5-10 (-11.8 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 5-7 (+2.2 Units) against BOSTON this season
9 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+6.9 Units)

TRENT THORNTON vs. BOSTON since 1997
THORNTON is 0-1 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 9.00 and a WHIP of 2.333.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-2. (-2.4 units)

RICK PORCELLO vs. TORONTO since 1997
PORCELLO is 10-11 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 5.48 and a WHIP of 1.317.
His team's record is 12-14 (-5.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 15-10. (+4.0 units)

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DETROIT (29 - 59) at CLEVELAND (51 - 40) - 7:10 PM
DANIEL NORRIS (L) vs. ADAM PLUTKO (R)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 29-59 (-19.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
DETROIT is 12-33 (-15.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
DETROIT is 22-48 (-18.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
DETROIT is 55-100 (-40.2 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 9-30 (-14.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
CLEVELAND is 142-114 (-31.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 48-37 (-28.5 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -175 to -250 over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 80-71 (-32.5 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 75-66 (-26.7 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 8-1 (+6.6 Units) against DETROIT this season
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.7 Units, Under=-0.1 Units)

DANIEL NORRIS vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
NORRIS is 3-1 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 3.10 and a WHIP of 1.345.
His team's record is 4-2 (+2.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-3. (-0.3 units)

ADAM PLUTKO vs. DETROIT since 1997
PLUTKO is 2-0 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.000.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-0. (+2.0 units)

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CHI WHITE SOX (42 - 47) at KANSAS CITY (32 - 62) - 8:15 PM
LUCAS GIOLITO (R) vs. JAKE JUNIS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 18-7 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 42-47 (+8.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 17-9 (+13.6 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 9-4 (+9.1 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 22-16 (+11.0 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 26-20 (+15.9 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 7-3 (+9.9 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive losses this season.
GIOLITO is 12-5 (+9.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
GIOLITO is 8-1 (+8.1 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season. (Team's Record)
GIOLITO is 16-9 (+14.6 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GIOLITO is 8-1 (+10.3 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GIOLITO is 18-14 (+11.0 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GIOLITO is 16-12 (+9.0 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GIOLITO is 9-3 (+9.5 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
KANSAS CITY is 32-62 (-19.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 23-45 (-15.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHI WHITE SOX is 8-4 (+4.4 Units) against KANSAS CITY this season
8 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+4.7 Units)

LUCAS GIOLITO vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
GIOLITO is 6-0 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 2.13 and a WHIP of 0.853.
His team's record is 8-2 (+7.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-7. (-5.8 units)

JAKE JUNIS vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
JUNIS is 2-1 when starting against CHI WHITE SOX with an ERA of 5.34 and a WHIP of 1.285.
His team's record is 3-2 (+0.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-3. (-2.7 units)

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HOUSTON (59 - 35) at LA ANGELS (48 - 46) - 10:07 PM
JOSH JAMES (R) vs. GRIFFIN CANNING (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-1 (+1.7 Units) against LA ANGELS this season
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.8 Units)

JOSH JAMES vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
JAMES is 0-0 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 5.40 and a WHIP of 1.200.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.1 units)

GRIFFIN CANNING vs. HOUSTON since 1997
No recent starts.

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SAN FRANCISCO (43 - 49) at COLORADO (46 - 46) - 2:10 PM
JEFF SAMARDZIJA (R) vs. GERMAN MARQUEZ (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 5-4 (+1.1 Units) against COLORADO this season
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.8 Units)

JEFF SAMARDZIJA vs. COLORADO since 1997
SAMARDZIJA is 5-7 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 4.15 and a WHIP of 1.133.
His team's record is 7-8 (-2.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 9-5. (+3.4 units)

GERMAN MARQUEZ vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
MARQUEZ is 2-3 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 4.61 and a WHIP of 1.390.
His team's record is 3-4 (-1.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-3. (+0.5 units)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-15-2019, 05:00 PM

Diamond Trends - Monday
Vince Akins

SU Play ON Trend of the Day:

-- The Braves are 13-0 SU in the first game of a series with no rest as a favorite after a game in which they scored first.

SU Play AGAINST Trend of the Day:

-- The Phillies are 0-11 SU in the first game of a series with no rest as a dog after they won by one run.

Batter-Based Trend of the Day:

-- The Astros are 7-0 SU since Apr 13, 2019 off a road game in which Yuli Gurriel had multiple RBI.

Starter-Based Trend of the Day:

-- The Red Sox are 14-0 OU when Rick Porcello starts at home when they won as an away favorite in his last start, going over by an average of 4.71 runs per game.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-15-2019, 05:00 PM

971 SAN FRANCISCO GM 1 +185 WIN
Giants are 20-14 since Apr 21, 2019 on the road.
Giants are 21-15 since Jun 01, 2019.
Rockies are 2-7 since Jun 30, 2019.

959 SAN FRANCISCO GM 2 +125
Giants are 20-14 since Apr 21, 2019 on the road.
Giants are 21-15 since Jun 01, 2019.
Rockies are 2-7 since Jun 30, 2019.

970 LA ANGELS +110
Astros are 6-9 since Jun 05, 2019 on the road.
Angels are 12-6 since May 25, 2019 at home.
Angels are 26-17 since May 25, 2019.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-15-2019, 05:09 PM

Jack Brayman

My free play for tonight is the Under in the National League Central battle between the Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs.

This will be a pitchers' duel, as both will come into this on different modes of motivation, but both ready to win.

Since every MLB wager on a run line or total auto-lists pitchers, I want you to be sure the two pitchers on your ticket, when making this play, are Luis Castillo and Kyle Hendricks. If they are not the pitchers of record when making your play, disregard this play.

Castillo just pitched one perfect inning that included two strikeouts during his first All-Star appearance, and will be stepping to the hill for the first time since giving up only one hit over 7 2/3 innings for a 1-0 win over the Brewers in his last outing on July 4.

The Reds' righty is 8-3 with a 2.29 ERA and has 124 strikeouts on the year. He has the ability to silence the Cubs' lineup, at least long enough to keep the score low.

Hendricks, meanwhile, fell victim to a high pitch count in his most recent start against the Chicago White Sox, and he'll be out to avenge the outing. The right-hander pitched well, allowing just two runs before being lifted from the game after four innings, so I expect him to find his spots quicker and keep the pitch count low against one of the weakest lineups in the bigs.

Cincinnati has the fifth-lowest batting average (.239) in the bigs, and has scored the sixth-fewest runs (396) in baseball.

Play this one low.

5* UNDER Reds-Cubs (Castillo-Hendricks)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-15-2019, 05:10 PM

Dwayne Connors

Monday comp play is the Rays and Yankees to stay Under the posted total.

Tampa Bay has held Under the total in 4 of their last 6 games, and that does include their last pair of series meetings versus New York back on July 6th and 7th at Tropicana Field.

New York has played all 3 of their games since the All-Star Break Under the total, and have now been involved in 5 straight Unders dating back to the last pair of games I just mentioned in Tampa versus the Rays.

Blake Snell did hold the Yankees to just one run over 5 innings in his last start against them back on July 6th, and I can see him coming through with a similar result in tonight's start.

James Paxton will counter for the Yankees, and his last start against Tampa on July 7th saw him work 6 innings with just 2 runs allowed and 11 batters fanned. Paxton's ERA at Yankee Stadium this year stands at 3.26 and he has held opponents to a .218 batting average in his 8 Bronx starts this season.

Going to look for the pitchers to dominate in this Monday contest.

Rays-Yankees land Under the total.

3* TAMPA BAY-N.Y. YANKEES UNDER

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-15-2019, 05:13 PM

Bob Valentino

Monday night comp play goes out on the Indians on the Run Line to handle their business in the series opener with the Tigers.

Cleveland salvaged their big set against first-place Minnesota, as they held on yesterday to avoid the sweep at the hands of the Twins. Even though the Tribe dropped 2 of 3, they still have won 7 of their last 9 games entering play for Monday, and they have dominated Detroit in the season series this year with 7 wins in a row over the Tigers, and wins in 8 of the 9 overall meetings this season.

Detroit just snapped a 5 game losing skid on Sunday with a much-needed 12-8 victory over Kansas City, but at just 29-59 for the year, you can see that the Tigers victories have been few and far between on the 2019 trail.

Daniel Norris is winless over his last 10 starts, and that does include allowing 6 runs over 7 innings in a loss at Cleveland at the end of June.

Adam Plutko is 3-1 for the year, including a win at Detroit on June 14th when he allowed 3 runs - 2 of them earned - over his 6 innings pitched.

The Indians have been playing some hot baseball, and I expect them to stay hot with the easy 2 runs or better win over the Tigers at Progressive Field on Monday night.

5* CLEVELAND -1 1/2 RUNS

Monday 7-15-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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