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Game: (909) Pittsburgh Pirates at (910) St. Louis Cardinals
Date/Time: Jul 16 2019 8:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 9.0 (-103)
Tonight we look for a lot of fireworks in St. Louis. Jack Flaherty is on the mound tonight. Flaherty has an ERA 6.61 in his last 3 starts and a WHIP of 1.46 and that’s with his last game being a Gem going 7 innings allowing just 1 run. It must be noted that a good start was a day game. In 12 night starts this year Flaherty has an ERA of 6.02 and a WHIP of 1.33. In those 12 nights starts by Flaherty the OVER is 9-2. The Pirates are 31-17 to OVER this year following a loss and 12-2 this when revenging a loss where they scored 1 run or less with the average score being 13 runs a game. Fireworks in St. Louis tonight as I see 11 or more runs tonight.
TAKE PIRATES/CARDS OVER 9 as MARCO’S 4% NL GAME OF THE WEEK
Game: (901) Los Angeles Dodgers at (902) Philadelphia Phillies Date/Time: Jul 16 2019 7:05 PM EDT Betting Line Provider: William Hill Play Rating: 2% Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -180
Game: (915) Toronto Blue Jays at (916) Boston Red Sox Date/Time: Jul 16 2019 7:10 PM EDT Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker Play Rating: 2% Play: Boston Red Sox -190
Game: (919) Chicago White Sox at (920) Kansas City Royals Date/Time: Jul 16 2019 8:15 PM EDT Betting Line Provider: Westgate Play Rating: 3% Play: Chicago White Sox -120
Game: (901) Los Angeles Dodgers at (902) Philadelphia Phillies Date/Time: Jul 16 2019 7:05 PM EDT Betting Line Provider: Heritage Play Rating: 4% Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -186
Buehler v. Velasquez
This is a battle of the 2.84/3.36 v. 5.36/4.90.FIP/xFIP split.
If we need more than this...the Dodgers won last night 16-2 after running Elfin HARD once they reached the second time through. The Philly lineup had Kershaw on the ropes in multiple innings before the.Dodgers exploded but managed 1 single run...the confidence cannot be there. Philly hasn't hit well against lefties, but even more futile against RHP at home this month...with an ISO below .100 and 4 wRC with a .242 wOBA.
We backed Kershaw first 5 for a simple, easy win...and he struggled mightily but pulled thru allowing just 1 run. He likely should have allowed a handful more runs...Buehler is much less likely to struggle as much as his teammate and his backing offense is clearly ready to POUND!
Eflin >>> Velasquez
Buehler > Kershaw
Last night's easy winner << tonight's easy winner!
Game: (903) San Diego Padres at (904) Miami Marlins Date/Time: Jul 16 2019 7:10 PM EDT Betting Line Provider: Westgate Play Rating: 4% Play: Miami Marlins 1.5 (-145)
Allen v. Yamamoto
Thought the JY (especially at home).value play this big would be non existent after the last 2 times on the mound...but here we are...less than a buck and a half and you get +1.5!
The Fish offense isn't stellar...and the starting staff is too good to deserve this futility, but facing lefties, specifically at home, they sure ain't all bad...and considering how poorly the Dads offense has been on the road and against RHP in general since 7/1 (8 wRAA, .280 wOBA, 77 wRC+) Yamamoto is good enough to completely have his way with this lineup who improved close to none over the break.
Game: (927) Arizona Diamondbacks at (928) Texas Rangers Date/Time: Jul 16 2019 8:05 PM EDT Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker Play Rating: 4% Play: Total Under 10.0 (-109)
Young v. Lynn
Wind blowing in at double digit miles per hour tonight
Lance Lynn is showing no signs of slowing down
Alex Young is on the bump for the visiting Dbacks and has been basically magnificent with a pair of nasty devastating breaking pitches in his curve and slider both!
The Ranger lineup against LHP since the end of June is also sporting a -5.0 wRAA and a .284 wOBA
We somehow get a double digit total today!!
Game: (919) Chicago White Sox at (920) Kansas City Royals Date/Time: Jul 16 2019 8:15 PM EDT Betting Line Provider: William Hill Play Rating: 4% Play: Chicago White Sox -119
Cease v. Sparkman
Sometimes the true sign of success in this dangerous game of ours is starting over completely fresh the next wagers...meaning objectivity to potentially back a team that burnt you hard or fade a team you won big with recently.
The.ChiSox offense clearly have a hard time getting much going sans their breakout star shortstop and the Sparkman is shockingly bad metrically in most all ways...but also a lot of.that is neutralized with his home splits...which are a HUGE step up from his disastrous road numbers.
The Royals are not an easy team to back...even after defeating Cy Young candidate Lucas Giolito...and those who backed him first 5 or full game...and while I lean Under first 5 here as well...close to the best play on the board is.the.ChiSox battling through...backing up their rookie top prospect with better opportunistic offense and a series tying win.
Game: (909) Pittsburgh Pirates at (910) St. Louis Cardinals Date/Time: Jul 16 2019 8:15 PM EDT Betting Line Provider: Heritage Play Rating: 2% Play: Pittsburgh Pirates +163
Agrazal v. Flaherty
Same system we used (and got bitch slapped with) last night ...still so much value and a little insurance here for the Buccos to get back to that pre-break form and get off this shnide
Game: (911) San Francisco Giants at (912) Colorado Rockies Date/Time: Jul 16 2019 8:40 PM EDT Betting Line Provider: William Hill Play Rating: 2% Play: 1H Total Over 8.0 (-120)
Gonzales v. Mengden
Tough park for offense period and a couple of lineups who in the Mariners case has been bottom of the MLB against RHP and Oakland bottom of the league facing LHP.
This is a spot here with a system that is 19-11 on the season and over 22% ROI
Game: (901) Los Angeles Dodgers at (902) Philadelphia Phillies Date/Time: Jul 16 2019 7:05 PM EDT Betting Line Provider: Westgate Play Rating: 3% Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-130)
Game: (915) Toronto Blue Jays at (916) Boston Red Sox Date/Time: Jul 16 2019 7:10 PM EDT Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker Play Rating: 4% Play: Total Under 11.0 (-101)
Blue Jays/ Red Sox UNDER The Red Sox welcome Andrew Cashner to the mound tonight against the Blue Jays. I’m expecting a lower scoring game with him tonight. Quietly, Cashner has been dominating this year and especially over his last few starts. He’s held his opponents to two or fewer runs in five consecutive starts, has a 3.83 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 96.1 innings pitched this season. Cashner has also owned the Blue Jays throughout his career, going 3-2 with a 2.49 ERA in eight starts that includes pithing 7 innings last weekend while giving up just one run. The Jays can’t hit water if they fell out of a boat right now and Cashner will be pumped for this game. He’ll be looking to show Red Sox nation, in Fenway, that he belongs. Most, if not all, the offense in this game will come from Boston as they will be facing rookie starter Jacob Waguespack, who pitched against them back on July 3rd and gave up 3 runs in five innings pitched. Prior to last night, the UNDER was 6-0 in the Jays last six overall and 4-0 in their last four on the road against a right-handed starter. Expect Cashner to be lights out tonight and back the UNDER in this game with confidence
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