Monday 7-29-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Diamond Trends - Monday
Vince Akins

SU Play ON Trend of the Day:

-- The Angels are 17-0 SU as a favorite of more than 135 off a home game in which they won by one run and did not lead for six-plus innings.

SU Play AGAINST Trend of the Day:

-- The Orioles are 0-40 SU when their opponent's starter has a strike-per-ball ratio greater than 2.01 and has struck out an average of more than 1.5 batters per game, as long as it is not the second game of a double-header.

OU Trend of the Day:

-- The Marlins are 0-12 OU in the last game of a series after a win in which they never trailed.

Starter-Based Trend of the Day:

-- The Braves are 0-7 OU in franchise history in Dallas Keuchel's starts.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

By: Rohit Ponnaiya



STREAKING AND SLUMPING STARTERS

STREAKING

Patrick Corbin, Washington Nationals (8-5, 3.25 ERA, $227): The southpaw has been a huge reason for Washington's mid-season surge with the Nats going 6-1 in his last seven starts. During that span, Corbin is 3-0 with a 1.60 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 57 strikeouts in 45 innings of work.

The Nationals begin their three-game home set against the Braves with Corbin on the mound. In his only game against Atlanta this season, Corbin allowed two runs through five innings but the Nats lost 4-3.

Coincidently enough, his Braves pitching counterpart today, Dallas Keuchel gave up three runs through five innings in his only game this year against Washington and Atlanta lost by an identical 4-3 score. Washington has gone 14-6 in their last 20 home games and are -150 faves to pull off the win tonight.

SLUMPING

Jordan Zimmerman, Detroit Tigers (0-8, 7.57 ERA, $-551): Zimmerman, and the Tigers, have been pretty much slumping all season but he's somehow managed to pitch even worse recently. In his last four starts the right-hander has an ERA of 14.09 and a WHIP of 2.67.

Zimmerman and the Tigers are +208 underdogs on the road today against the Los Angeles Angels. The Angels will start Jaime Barria who is 4-3 with a 6.63 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and batting average allowed of .299. But even those ugly numbers look better than Zimmerman's 1.71 WHIP and BAA of .328.



3 STRIKES

BOUNCING BACK

After a terrific start to his career, Padres right-hander Chris Paddack looked like he hit the rookie wall near the beginning of June when he recorded an ERA of 7.54 while giving up six dingers over a three-game stretch. But he's recovered nicely with a 2.15 ERA and 0.82 WHIP over his last five starts. Tonight, the Padres will host the Baltimore Orioles in an interleague matchup.

The Orioles are really bad, even against other bad teams, going just 15-48 in their last 63 games against teams with a losing record. They have yet to announce their starter for tonight's game but they will most likely be big underdogs versus the Padres and Paddack.

GIVING THEM A FIGHTING CHANCE

The Marlins average a National League-worst 3.56 runs per game but Caleb Smith has been giving them a fighting chance when he takes the mound. The lefty is 6-4 with a 3.30 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 110 Ks in 90 innings. Miami is 4-0 in his last four starts and is in a pick 'em at home today against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The D-Backs will start Merrill Kelly who got shelled for seven runs and three homers in just over two innings against Baltimore during his last start.

CHARLIE AND THE HITTING FACTORY

Almost every batter loves hitting at Coors Field but Rockies right fielder Charlie Blackmon is especially fond of his home field. Blackmon has a batting average of .415 with 16 homers and an insane OPS of 1.318 in 38 games at home this season.

Blackmon has a BA of .400 over his last eight games and will face Dodgers pitcher Kenta Maeda today. Maeda has struggled both on the road (5.23 ERA in 11 away starts) and against left-handed hitters, giving up an OPS of .797 (compared to a .509 OPS against righties).

Blackmon averages 3.66 total bases per game at home and the O/U for his total bases tonight is set at 1.5 with the Over paying out at -150. He is +270 to mash a home run.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dwayne Connors

Monday comp play will be the Atlanta Braves and the Washington Nationals to hold Under the total.


Washington could gain no ground when these teams played between the 18th and the 21st down in Atlanta as the division-rivals split their 4 games. The one trend that did emerge was the Under cashed in each of the last 3 series meetings in that set, and I like it to cash in again tonight in the first game of this new series tonight.


Dallas Keuchel will oppose Patrick Corbin, and both of these pitchers have been hard to muster runs against. Keuchel has made 7 start thus far for the Braves, and all 7 of them have landed Under the total. One of those starts came against the Nats back on June 21st, as he allowed 4 runs - 3 of them earned - in a 4-3 Nats win that held Under the total.


As for Corbin, over his last 7 starts, he is 3-0 with an ERA of 1.60. The Under has connected in each of his last 5 starts, and in 6 of the 7 starts overall. That includes a start in that stretch against the Braves on July 19th in which he allowed 2 runs to cross in his 5 innings of work.


In his D.C. starts this season, Corbin is 5-1 with a 1.68 ERA. That being the case, it is doubtful to me that either of these teams gets too many men on base this Monday night.


I like the Braves and the Nationals to hold Under the total in this key N.L. East Division meeting on Monday.

4* ATLANTA-WASHINGTON UNDER