Service Plays Tuesday 7/23/19

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB (Bob Balfe)
7:10 PM EST
Rotation #955-956
Padres -125 over Mets
Paddack/Vargas
This is a battle between a young up and coming pitcher in Chris Paddack against the aging Jason Vargas who doesn’t have much of a fastball anymore. Chris Paddack handled this team earlier this season and should do so again tonight. The Mets Bullpen has been an adventure all year and without a solid starter I believe San Diego will get the victory here. Take the Padres.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

Three MLB Picks 7/23

100* Brewers -135
100* Marlins -115
100* Over 10 Rangers/Mariners

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony chau John Morrison MLB Series System

UNOFFICIAL
7/23 Toronto Blue Jays (.464, HOME) vs Indians (.499, AWAY) Bet B +1.5 (+101 BetOnline 12:40PM ET on 7/23)
7/23 Oakland Athletics (.513, AWAY) vs Astros (.542, HOME) Bet B +1.5 (-133 BetOnline 12:40PM ET on 7/23)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jason Sharpe

6u MLB PLAY FOR TUESDAY!!

Pittsburgh -125

[dawggy]

JOE RAINERIBASEBALL PLAYS

• Game: (959) Chicago Cubs at (960) San Francisco Giants
  Date/Time: Jul 23 2019 9:45 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Heritage
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Total Under 7.5 (-118)
  
  View Analysis
  
  
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  4% PLAY: GIANTS vs CUBS UNDER 7.5
  
  The Giants are one of the hottest teams in the league and have won five of their last six home games and Bumgarner’s last five home starts. The Cubs have struggled on the road and have lost 14 of their last 19 road games as well as four of Darvish’s last five road starts. Prior to last night, the Cubs had played to the Under in six straight, while the Giants had gone Under in four of their last six. This could very well be the last start for Madison Bumgarner in a Giants uniform with the trade deadline just around the corner, I'm expecting a great pitching performance. In his last start, Bumgarner gave up five hits and one earned run in nine innings, helping the team get a 3-2 win over the New York Mets. Yu Darvish is on the mound for the Cubs and he's really settled in over the last month. The right-hander comes into this game with two consecutive starts in which he has pitched 6.0 innings of shutout baseball. I'm expecting a pitcher's duel in this game tonight and I'll be betting the UNDER with these two on the mound tonight.

[dawggy]

DR. CHUCKBASEBALL PLAYS

• Game: (963) Boston Red Sox at (964) Tampa Bay Rays
  Date/Time: Jul 23 2019 7:10 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Westgate
  Play Rating: 5%
  Play: Boston Red Sox -160
  
  View Analysis
  
  Sale v. Chirinos
  I would still basically LOVE this play if it was mostly down to the pitching aspects and inter-series analysis of this particular spot with regard to the big win last night with quick 8 run lead, the fact Red Sox fans will dominate the away stands, no weather issues, Rays injury issues, and the fact Yonny has had his lineup score a total of 2 runs in his last 4 home starts!
  Chirinos has been a very solid starter for the Rays, but shows great weakness when facing the opposing lineup the second time through the order, raising his FIP/xFIP split to 5.22/5.05. He walks 3 times the rate and Ks 3 times fewer his normal rate after giving each member of the lineup a look at his arsenal. Add to this the fact (you may know where I'm heading here) the BoSox 1, 2, 3 hitters are the best (by a LARGE margin) since 7/1 when facing the opposing starter the second time through....amassing almost 10 wRAA, a .465 BA, 259 wRC+, and a .550 wOBA!!!! Going back further to over a month, the numbers stay the same...and the BABIP is .430. Yonny ain't even to be blamed to be honest with this kind of raking...but the Red Sox likely also remember his last extremely stellar performance just happened to be again these Sox...going 8 innings and allowing just 2 hits!
  Expanding out further the Red Sox...it isn't just the top of the order crushing everything coming across the plate...as they are the best lineup since 7/1 facing RHP period...overall:
  .919 OPS
  .300 BA
  .250 ISO
  .379 wOBA
  134 wRC+
  and
  24.5 wRAA
  Chris Sale is on the bump for the good guys tonight and his metrics speak for themselves. He is worth backing as much as any starter going nowadays and has reduced his xFIP to 2.97! Wondering who might top him on such a list...only Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer! Oddly Chris Sale is the one who gets the bad rap and pub with regards to fading him etc. You'd be hard pressed to line up to fade Cole or Scherzer if they were only laying 1 buch and a half, eh? I would damn near guarantee most would consider such a line to be a play of the year type spot!
  Finally, the Rays on offense...stagnant since July started and much worse when combining home field with facing LHP (not even accounting for the level of LHP they face...tonight is exemplary!) they are dead last in the MLB
  188 PAs
  .219 BA
  .101 ISO
  -7.6 wRAA
  .273 wOBA
  73 wRC+
  Everything here adds up to what I would consider a HUGE ENORMOUS bargain! This is still a heavy price to pay, but the Red Sox shouldn't lose tonight and Sale is usually laying -200 or deeper. This is likely something bigger than the 5% it is posted at, and I will also be adding value with a run line play, team total OVER play, and dabbling with the -0.5 RL for the first 5 innings...largely due to the prowess of what Mookie, Raf, and Xander will do to Chirinos the second (maybe even first) time they face him!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vernon Croy

7-Unit Play. Take #650 Las Vegas PK -110 over Seattle (Tuesday, July 23 at 10:00 PM ET)

I like Vegas to -4 here tonight.
Take Las Vegas ATS as my 7-Unit WNBA Smash for Tuesday night. This pick falls into one of my top WNBA systems and I have Las Vegas winning this game big at home here tonight even without A'ja Wilson. Good teams like Vegas always step up and play even better in the absence of a star player and that will happen tonight. I feel Las Vegas is arguably the best team in the WNBA and they also have the revenge factor coming into this game after losing in Seattle last week. Seattle made it to the line 20 times in that 3 point win over Las Vegas shooting 100% from the line. Las Vegas did hold Seattle to shooting just 27.8% against them but the officiating was terrible in that game and Las Vegas also did not play very disciplined with 21 turnovers compared to Seattle who had just 14 turnovers. Las Vegas did not start well at all in that game either and it was the 1st quarter that cost them that game, so you can expect them to come out ready to play at home here tonight. Seattle is a team that is battling injuries and this is just their 2nd road game in their last 8 games overall. I look for Las Vegas to dominate the boards here tonight and come away with the dominant win at home. Las Vegas is best 3-point shooting team in the WNBA knocking down 36.4% from beyond the arc this season and they have shot 45.4% as a team overall at home this season. Play Las Vegas ATS as we move to 26-16 with my last 42 WNBA picks.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SportsDogma

MLB VIP #5 play

Giants under 7.5

[dawggy]

DR. CHUCKBASEBALL PLAYS

• Game: (963) Boston Red Sox at (964) Tampa Bay Rays
  Date/Time: Jul 23 2019 7:10 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Westgate
  Play Rating: 5%
  Play: Boston Red Sox -160
  
  View Analysis
  
  Sale v. Chirinos
  I would still basically LOVE this play if it was mostly down to the pitching aspects and inter-series analysis of this particular spot with regard to the big win last night with quick 8 run lead, the fact Red Sox fans will dominate the away stands, no weather issues, Rays injury issues, and the fact Yonny has had his lineup score a total of 2 runs in his last 4 home starts!
  Chirinos has been a very solid starter for the Rays, but shows great weakness when facing the opposing lineup the second time through the order, raising his FIP/xFIP split to 5.22/5.05. He walks 3 times the rate and Ks 3 times fewer his normal rate after giving each member of the lineup a look at his arsenal. Add to this the fact (you may know where I'm heading here) the BoSox 1, 2, 3 hitters are the best (by a LARGE margin) since 7/1 when facing the opposing starter the second time through....amassing almost 10 wRAA, a .465 BA, 259 wRC+, and a .550 wOBA!!!! Going back further to over a month, the numbers stay the same...and the BABIP is .430. Yonny ain't even to be blamed to be honest with this kind of raking...but the Red Sox likely also remember his last extremely stellar performance just happened to be again these Sox...going 8 innings and allowing just 2 hits!
  Expanding out further the Red Sox...it isn't just the top of the order crushing everything coming across the plate...as they are the best lineup since 7/1 facing RHP period...overall:
  .919 OPS
  .300 BA
  .250 ISO
  .379 wOBA
  134 wRC+
  and
  24.5 wRAA
  Chris Sale is on the bump for the good guys tonight and his metrics speak for themselves. He is worth backing as much as any starter going nowadays and has reduced his xFIP to 2.97! Wondering who might top him on such a list...only Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer! Oddly Chris Sale is the one who gets the bad rap and pub with regards to fading him etc. You'd be hard pressed to line up to fade Cole or Scherzer if they were only laying 1 buch and a half, eh? I would damn near guarantee most would consider such a line to be a play of the year type spot!
  Finally, the Rays on offense...stagnant since July started and much worse when combining home field with facing LHP (not even accounting for the level of LHP they face...tonight is exemplary!) they are dead last in the MLB
  188 PAs
  .219 BA
  .101 ISO
  -7.6 wRAA
  .273 wOBA
  73 wRC+
  Everything here adds up to what I would consider a HUGE ENORMOUS bargain! This is still a heavy price to pay, but the Red Sox shouldn't lose tonight and Sale is usually laying -200 or deeper. This is likely something bigger than the 5% it is posted at, and I will also be adding value with a run line play, team total OVER play, and dabbling with the -0.5 RL for the first 5 innings...largely due to the prowess of what Mookie, Raf, and Xander will do to Chirinos the second (maybe even first) time they face him!

DR. CHUCKBASEBALL PLAYS

• Game: (961) Cleveland Indians at (962) Toronto Blue Jays
  Date/Time: Jul 23 2019 7:07 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: William Hill
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-115)
  
  View Analysis
  
  Bauer v. Sanchez
  Trevor Bauer may be auditioning for a spot on another contending team come next week while his opponent on the mound tonight in Aaron Sanchez is auditioning for the record books: he has added an 'L' to his record each time he took the mound for the previous 10 starts, and has also taken an 'L' the last 13 decisions in which he's pitched...over 15 starts. You'd be hard pressed to find such a record for futility, especially in the recent past with how baseball has changed pitching-wise...but add to it just a couple short years ago, he set the Blue Jays team record for consecutive winning decisions with 10, in a season he went 15-2, played in the All Star game, anchored the ALCS finishing Toronto pitching staff, was 7th in Cy Young voting, and on the cover of MLB The Show 2017 in Canada!
  This poor kid cannot get out of his own way, he is saddled with one of the worst lineups in the league, but trumps that with the MLB's worst FIP/xFIP split of 5.51/5.41 and has a single game xFIP below 4.87 ONE SINGLE time since 5/27! He walks 5.21 per 9 innings (MLB worst by an entire point!), is bottom 5 in the league stranding runners at just 2 out of 3 for the season, and only Max Fried has a worse BABIP than his .333.
  Insult to injury...he gets to face Trevor Bauer tonight and his Blue Jays batting order (sans a pitcher!) has scored him 13 runs during his stretch of 10 straight losses taking the mound! More insult to injury? you guessed it...Cleveland is the best lineup on the road against RHP in the MLB since 7/1...piling up nearly 20 wRAA, 173 wRC+, with a RIDICULOUS .438 wOBA, 1.087 OPS, and .309 ISO....that latter number will be MASSIVE trouble for a starter having a hard time not giving out free passes and allowing a 16+% HR/FB rate!
  Bauer, over the same period we are judging Aaron Sanchez going for big number 11 in a row, has been given 43 runs of support in his last 10 starts...facing batting orders the last couple times out he also induced an 18.5% swing and miss rate! He faces a lineup yielding -8.8 wRAA the past 2 weeks while swinging and missing at a 12% rate and only getting contact on 84% of pitches inside the strike zone!
  As with our 5% play today I will also be doubling up on the Run line with the first 5 and making an even bigger play on the SU win for the Indians...which I would largely consider to be a sure thing...and definitely a ship I'm willing to sink on if the streak for Aaron Sanchez ends tonight!
  
• Game: (961) Cleveland Indians at (962) Toronto Blue Jays
  Date/Time: Jul 23 2019 7:07 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: William Hill
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Cleveland Indians -170
  
  View Analysis
  
  Bauer v. Sanchez
  all hail the great fade!
  
• Game: (963) Boston Red Sox at (964) Tampa Bay Rays
  Date/Time: Jul 23 2019 7:10 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Westgate
  Play Rating: 5%
  Play: Boston Red Sox -160
  
  View Analysis
  
  Sale v. Chirinos
  I would still basically LOVE this play if it was mostly down to the pitching aspects and inter-series analysis of this particular spot with regard to the big win last night with quick 8 run lead, the fact Red Sox fans will dominate the away stands, no weather issues, Rays injury issues, and the fact Yonny has had his lineup score a total of 2 runs in his last 4 home starts!
  Chirinos has been a very solid starter for the Rays, but shows great weakness when facing the opposing lineup the second time through the order, raising his FIP/xFIP split to 5.22/5.05. He walks 3 times the rate and Ks 3 times fewer his normal rate after giving each member of the lineup a look at his arsenal. Add to this the fact (you may know where I'm heading here) the BoSox 1, 2, 3 hitters are the best (by a LARGE margin) since 7/1 when facing the opposing starter the second time through....amassing almost 10 wRAA, a .465 BA, 259 wRC+, and a .550 wOBA!!!! Going back further to over a month, the numbers stay the same...and the BABIP is .430. Yonny ain't even to be blamed to be honest with this kind of raking...but the Red Sox likely also remember his last extremely stellar performance just happened to be again these Sox...going 8 innings and allowing just 2 hits!
  Expanding out further the Red Sox...it isn't just the top of the order crushing everything coming across the plate...as they are the best lineup since 7/1 facing RHP period...overall:
  .919 OPS
  .300 BA
  .250 ISO
  .379 wOBA
  134 wRC+
  and
  24.5 wRAA
  Chris Sale is on the bump for the good guys tonight and his metrics speak for themselves. He is worth backing as much as any starter going nowadays and has reduced his xFIP to 2.97! Wondering who might top him on such a list...only Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer! Oddly Chris Sale is the one who gets the bad rap and pub with regards to fading him etc. You'd be hard pressed to line up to fade Cole or Scherzer if they were only laying 1 buch and a half, eh? I would damn near guarantee most would consider such a line to be a play of the year type spot!
  Finally, the Rays on offense...stagnant since July started and much worse when combining home field with facing LHP (not even accounting for the level of LHP they face...tonight is exemplary!) they are dead last in the MLB
  188 PAs
  .219 BA
  .101 ISO
  -7.6 wRAA
  .273 wOBA
  73 wRC+
  Everything here adds up to what I would consider a HUGE ENORMOUS bargain! This is still a heavy price to pay, but the Red Sox shouldn't lose tonight and Sale is usually laying -200 or deeper. This is likely something bigger than the 5% it is posted at, and I will also be adding value with a run line play, team total OVER play, and dabbling with the -0.5 RL for the first 5 innings...largely due to the prowess of what Mookie, Raf, and Xander will do to Chirinos the second (maybe even first) time they face him!
  
• Game: (963) Boston Red Sox at (964) Tampa Bay Rays
  Date/Time: Jul 23 2019 7:10 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: William Hill
  Play Rating: 3%
  Play: Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+100)
  
  View Analysis
  
  Sale v. Chirinos
  riding the HOT HOT HOT offense....against the stagnant, not full strength division foe....facing the Cy Young metric numbers!
  
• Game: (957) Cincinnati Reds at (958) Milwaukee Brewers
  Date/Time: Jul 23 2019 8:10 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Westgate
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Milwaukee Brewers -140
  
  View Analysis
  
  Roark v. Davies
  
  Holy revenge....Yelich goes deeeeeep!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert Ferringo

7 Unit Texas seattle over 9.5
5 UnitLa Angel's la Dodgers over 9
4 Unit Phil -139

[Can'tPickAWinner]

+EV: WNBA 4u: 649 Seattle Storm +5.5 -105 (Tuesday, July 22nd)
+EV: WNBA 4u: 648 Atlanta Dream +110 (Tuesday, July 22nd)
+EV: MLB 4u: 977 Baltimore Orioles +145 (1st 5 Innings) (D Bundy | M Kelly) (Tuesday, July 23rd)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fezzik

WNBA GOM

Atlanta +2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting Resource

Jul 23: MLB: Kansas City - Atlanta
Pitchers: Duffy and Keuchel
Pick: Kansas City +1.5 Odd: 2.00
Risk: 8 units

Jul 23: MLB: San Diego - New York Mets
Pitchers: Keuchel and Paddack
Pick: San Diego -1.5 Odd: 2.25
Risk: 8 units

Jul 23: MLB: Boston - Tampa Bay
Pitchers: List Chirinos and Sale
Pick: Tampa win Odd: 2.52
Risk: 8 units

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy/ 7-Unit Play. #952. Take Pittsburgh Pirates -127 over St. Louis Cardinals (Tuesday @ 7:05pm est)

This is a good spot for the Pirates in our opinion. Let's try to make it 4 Straight MLB Winners today. Nice 7* Winner on the Redsox. Note, we are also, we are on a 9-1 All Sports Run since Saturday, and we're going to crush it today by winning our 4*WNBA, 7*MLB and 3*Soccer. And don't forget we are about to do huge damage in this year's Football Season as we are expecting our best season ever (5-0 with Football Futures last 4 Years). For starters in this pick, the Pirates look to avoid losing 3 straight. They lost a heartbreaker in 10 innings yesterday and we think they come back fired up today. Hudson did win his last 3 starts but has over a 4.50 era in that stretch and he has been giving up a series of walks and homeruns which are being overlooked. Archer has quietly struck out 18 in his last 2 games and his stuff is more electric right now and he just lost to these Cardinals two starts ago so the motivation is there too. Archer has not also won since early June so he will motivated badly to get a divisional win here, and he did pitch well against the Cubs and Cards recently. He has a 4 era at home in general and he has a 2.45 era lifetime against the Cardinals to boot and I think he shows up big here to pick up the win he has been seeking for a while. Let's go with the more dominant pitcher and frankly I think Hudson's luck runs out today against an angry Pirates team.

[dawggy]

CAL SPORTSBASEBALL PLAYS

• Game: (961) Cleveland Indians at (962) Toronto Blue Jays
  Date/Time: Jul 23 2019 7:07 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: William Hill
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-110)
  
  View Analysis
  
  
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  Run Line Game of the Month
  RUN LINE 4* Cleveland -1.5 runs (-110) Toronto (Bauer & Sanchez) 7:07 PM
  This was just on the cusp of being a 5% play. The Tribe comes in 12-3 their last 15 games and have also won 7 straight road games all by 2+ runs! The Blue Jays are 5-10 their last 15 games while going 2-9 their last 11 as a HD with 8 of those losses by 2+ runs. The hitting edge goes to the Tribe batting .289 the L5 days and .286 the L10 compared to .231 and .244. The pitching edge goes to Cleveland they’ve won 7 of Bauer’s’ L8 starts. Bauer did win his last start but commented after the game he was mad as he’s been in 2 months after allowing 8 hits and 2 HR’s versus Detroit. Bauer has a 2.43 road ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Sanchez has lost EACH of his last 10 starts and has a 6.26 ERA and 1.75 WHIP and why he is still in the rotation in a mystery. Cleveland is 5-0 versus Toronto this season and after tonight make it 6-0!