Service Plays Tuesday 7/30/19

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Zack Cimini


SEATTLE +111


SEATTLE @ TEXAS | 7/30 | 8:05 PM EDT
12:03 PM
An unheralded diamond matchup Tuesday will happen in the AL between the Mariners and Rangers. This is the back end of a home-away series that was played last week in Seattle. Texas now gets a chance to avenge a loss against Mike Leake in what was a 5-3 Mariners victory. Leake was not flawless as he was in a complete-game victory over the Angels but kept the Rangers to three runs. This time look for the Mariners to get even more run support for Leake as the Rangers' strong home record falters.

50-39 IN LAST 89 MLB ML PICKS | +761
14-8 IN LAST 22 TEX ML PICKS | +747

20-14 IN LAST 34 SEA ML PICKS | +618


UNDER 9.5 PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI | 7/30 | 7:10 PM EDT


12:02 PM
One of the easiest Overs on Monday was Reds-Pirates. It cleared the set total before the end of the second inning. Tuesday offers the same set total as Joe Musgrove will attempt to lead the Pirates and end their nine-game losing streak. Musgrove is coming off allowing three home runs against the Cardinals. The Reds' Tanner Roark has struggled to pitch beyond five innings his last three starts. Still look for the bats to cool off and the bullpens to hold. Grab the Under (-108).

11-5-1 IN LAST 17 MLB PICKS | +670
6-2 IN LAST 8 CIN O/U PICKS | +382

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Johnny Bollman

OAKLAND -143


MILWAUKEE @ OAKLAND | 7/30 | 10:07 PM EDT
9:49 AM
Chris Bassitt is 7-5 with a 4.09 ERA this season and he is 4-2 with a 3.51 ERA at home. This is an interleague matchup so there isn’t much history between these two teams, but the Athletics are 33-22 at home while the Brewers are 23-27 on the road. A starter hasn’t been announced yet for the Brewers but it is looking like Adrian Houser will at least be the primary reliever. He is 3-2 with a 4.85 ERA on the road. Lay the home favorite.

93-59 IN LAST 152 MLB ML PICKS | +1847
14-8 IN LAST 22 OAK ML PICKS | +629

3-2 IN LAST 5 MIL ML PICKS | +71


BOSTON -141


TAMPA BAY @ BOSTON | 7/30 | 7:10 PM EDT
9:44 AM
David Price is 7-4 with a 3.66 ERA this season and he is 3-1 with a 2.89 ERA at home. Charlie Morton is 12-3 with a 2.60 ERA this season and he is 6-2 with a 2.45 ERA on the road. Morton has faced Boston three times this season with two quality starts and a five earned run game. Price has faced the Rays four times this season including three quality starts and a two earned run game but only five IP. Take the value in the hot Red Sox.

93-59 IN LAST 152 MLB ML PICKS | +1847
7-5 IN LAST 12 BOS ML PICKS | +78


ST. LOUIS +106


CHI. CUBS @ ST. LOUIS | 7/30 | 8:15 PM EDT
9:42 AM
Adam Wainwright is 7-7 with a 4.63 ERA this season but he is 5-2 with a 2.33 ERA at home. Yu Darvish is 3-4 with a 4.54 ERA this season and he is 2-1 with a 4.07 ERA on the road. He has faced the Cardinals twice this season giving up six earned runs in 10 IP. Wainwright has faced the Cubs three times this season and he has given up nine earned runs in 17.1 IP, although he threw eight shutout innings in his only home game against them. The Cubs are 20-31 on the road while the Cards are 29-22 at home.

93-59 IN LAST 152 MLB ML PICKS | +1847
8-2 IN LAST 10 STL ML PICKS | +619

9-3 IN LAST 12 CHC ML PICKS | +549

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fezzik

2* la angles -1.5(-135)

[dawggy]

JOE RAINERIBASEBALL PLAYS

• Game: (907) Chicago Cubs at (908) St. Louis Cardinals
  Date/Time: Jul 30 2019 8:15 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: St. Louis Cardinals +110
  
  View Analysis
  
  Let's make sure we don't outsmart ourselves in this game. Here's what we know about these two teams and this matchup tonight. Both teams are equally cabable of beating each other in any given series. Both these teams are familiar with each other and both have starting pitchers with experience. We also know that one team is much better at home while the other is much worse on the road. This game is in Saint Louis.
  Adam Wainwright takes the hill for the Cards and he has pitched in a lot of big games over his 15 seasons with the organization. He is 7-7 with a 4.63 ERA on the season but he is 5-2 with a 2.33 ERA at home. He hasn't been great his last couple of starts but has faced the Cubs three times this season and he has given up nine earned runs in 17.1 IP, although he threw eight shutout innings in his only home game against them on June 2nd. He's also working on an extra days rest.
  Yu Darvish is 3-4 with a 4.54 ERA this season and he is 2-1 with a 4.07 ERA on the road. He has faced the Cardinals twice this season giving up six earned runs in 10 IP. Darvish had a couple of quality starts going in the middle of the month, with zero earned runs on four hits in 12.0 combined innings. His last start was a little rocky though, with four earned on six hits in 6.0 innings over in San Francisco.
  The Cubs are 20-31 on the road while the Cards are 29-22 at home. The Cardinals are also 5-0 in their last five versus the NL Central and 4-0 in their last four in game one of a series and 12-4 in their last 16 overall.
  The home team has won every game of this series this year. I look for that to continue tonight.
  I'm taking the hotter team with a better bullpen who's playing at home.
  I'm betting the Home Underdog Cardinals on the ML tonight as this is one of the better value plays on the board

[dawggy]

DR. CHUCK

• Game: (913) Tampa Bay Rays at (914) Boston Red Sox
  Date/Time: Jul 30 2019 7:10 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: William Hill
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Boston Red Sox -132
  
  View Analysis
  
  Morton v. Price
  The Sox hitting speaks for itself lately....and EASY to back, especially at home. But today this is about the spot...which is 26 of 34 and 11 of 12 just this season. Sox get revenge on Morton at home this time and keep their improvement upon their title defense rolling!
  
• Game: (905) Pittsburgh Pirates at (906) Cincinnati Reds
  Date/Time: Jul 30 2019 7:10 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Heritage
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Total Over 9.5 (-108)
  
  View Analysis
  
  Musgrove v. Roark
  Had an entire analysis typed out and it done disappeared...ugh
  
  - Pirates desperate and staring down the barrel of double digit game losing streak
  - last 2 losses put up 6 and 7 runs
  - Reds hitting RHP better or as good as anyone, are home, and scored 11 last night
  -Roark auditioning for playoff contender but not been really sharp

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GREG SHAKER

2* Boston / Tampa bay over 9

2* New York Yankees / Arizona over 11

3* Cleveland / Houston under 8.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hakeem Profit

5% BIG PROFIT TOTAL

Mariners-Rangers over 11.5

The Mariners are the best over team in the league & they face a Texas team that has went over their Last 5 home games. Looking at both starting pitchers we have home/road dichotomies. Leake has a 3.01 era at home but he’ll be on the road in this one where his ERA is over 2 points higher at 5.60. Jurado on the other side has a 4.34 road ERA but 5.45 at home & in his Last 24 IP he’s given up 18 ER. Both teams are 1st & 3rd F5 Overs but at the same time they have 2 of the bottom 5 bullpen in the AL so we’ll include them. Both teams are ranked 28th/25th ERA, 14th/13th OPS, & 7th/14th WRC+ vs RHP. We will be on the over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dwayne Bryant

5% Max Bet

Cubs-Cards under 8.5

5% play at 8.5 or higher
4% play at 8
3% play at 7.5
No play below 7.5

Yu Darvish is in excellent current form. Darvish owns a 0.67 WHIP and 21/2 K/BB ratio over his last three starts. Active Cardinals hitters own a combined .133 average and .544 OPS against him.

Adam Wainwright has been Jekyll and Hyde when it comes to home/road results this season. On the road, AW owns a 1.61 WHIP, .299 BAA, and 17.4% HR/FB rate. But here at home, he owns a 1.20 WHIP, .235 BAA, and 12.8% HR/FB rate. His K/BB ratio also improves from 1.87 on the road to 3.06 at home. Active Cubs hitters own a combined .220 BA and .296 wOBA against Wainwright.

I also like that Wainwright is coming off back-to-back poor outings. Those two were on the road where we know he has not been very good. That makes tonight a great bounce-back spot at home. Wainwright has hosted the Cubs three times since 2017, allowing just 2 runs in 20 innings of work, including no runs over 15 innings in his last two home starts against the Cubs.

St. Louis' pen owns the league's #8 xFIP. The Cubs pen ranks a mediocre 16th. The Cards pen also ranks well in K/BB and WHIP.

There are MANY trends supporting the Under here. Here are just a few (the Under is):

6-1 in the last seven meetings in St. Louis.
4-0-1 in Wainwright's last five home starts versus the Cubs.
21-8-3 in Wainwright's last 32 home starts against teams with a winning record.
20-6 in St. Louis' last 26 home games.
6-1-1 in St. Louis' last eight games following an off day.
6-1 in Darvish's last seven road starts versus teams with a winning record.
9-2-1 in the Cubs' last 12 games overall.
8-0 in the Cubs' last eight games following an off day.
12-3-2 in the Cubs' last 17 series-opening games.
8-1 in the Cardinals' last nine series-opening home games.

PLAY UNDER.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dirty Bear Sports

MLB:
MIA F5 +.5 -120 3u

MLB Season: 75-76-7 50% -25.95 units

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MIT simulator

Angels -1.5
Cubs
Yankees -1.5

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Jason Sharpe

4 Unit philly -120

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Green Bay Monster Sports top rated plays
Yankees RL -120
Marlins +1.5 -130

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Hartstein


CHI. CUBS -125


CHI. CUBS @ ST. LOUIS | 7/30 | 8:15 PM EDT
2:39 PM
Yu Darvish has a 2.92 ERA over his last four starts and he's been excellent on the road this season, with 64 strikeouts in 55.1 innings. Adam Wainwright, 37, appears to be fading. Kris Bryant, mired in an 0-for-10 skid, will be glad to see Wainwright as he's batted .308 with an .879 OPS in 26 career at-bats versus the right-hander. The Cubs are 1-6 at Busch Stadium this season, but I like them in the opener of this pivotal series.

64-37 IN LAST 101 MLB ML PICKS | +2306
18-10 IN LAST 28 CHC ML PICKS | +685

13-6 IN LAST 19 STL ML PICKS | +586

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Micah Roberts


UNDER 9 HOUSTON @ CLEVELAND | 7/30 | 7:10 PM EDT


2:21 PM
Cleveland starter Shane Bieber comes off a rare complete-game shutout and the Indians have won his last five starts. The Astros have won five of Justin Verlander's last six starts, and he's had double-digit strikeouts in his last two. It's as if he's found his second wind and Tuesday's outing is his second-cheapest price of the season. Verlander has stayed Under the total in 15 of his 22 starts, including his last two. Under is the play.

18-12-3 IN LAST 33 MLB O/U PICKS | +470
2-1 IN LAST 3 HOU O/U PICKS | +95

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Adam Thompson


L.A. DODGERS -154


L.A. DODGERS @ COLORADO | 7/30 | 8:40 PM EDT
1:44 PM
Julio Urias gets a spot start for the Dodgers, but he's a good choice here. He's posted a 1.24 road ERA and -- Monday's loss notwithstanding -- the Dodgers have dominated the Rockies this season. Struggling Rockies starter Kyle Freeland has a 7.00 ERA -- it's 9.55 at Coors -- and the Dodgers are hitting a lot of home runs lately. They rank last in the league in average over the last month (.236) but have averaged 5.5 runs per game anyway. That's more than full run more than the Rockies.

4-1 IN LAST 5 MLB ML PICKS | +244
18-11 IN LAST 29 LAD ML PICKS | +866

20-15 IN LAST 35 COL ML PICKS | +192


HOUSTON -133


HOUSTON @ CLEVELAND | 7/30 | 7:10 PM EDT
1:35 PM
Justin Verlander has a rough track record at Progressive Field. But Verlander this year is as good as it gets. Verlander and Shane Bieber are each coming off no-earned-run, double-digit strikeout gems, but Bieber overall has been far better on the road -- his home ERA is 4.19. Meanwhile, Verlander on the road sports an average allowed of just .166. Both offenses have it dailed in over the last few weeks, each averaging roughly six runs per game. The Astros are an elite road-hitting team, however, and getting Verlander at this price is too good to pass up.

4-1 IN LAST 5 MLB ML PICKS | +244
19-8 IN LAST 27 HOU ML PICKS | +900

15-9 IN LAST 24 CLE ML PICKS | +534


MINNESOTA -146


MINNESOTA @ MIAMI | 7/30 | 7:10 PM EDT
1:25 PM
Jake Odorizzi has fallen apart lately, allowing 30 runs over his last 32.1 innings. But Odorizzi has a 0.90 ERA in Miami, and right-handers are hitting just .178 against him all year. Miami has one lefty and one switch-hitter in its lineup. Meanwhile, the Marlins have the red-hot Zac Gallen on the mound. But he faces a Twins offense that's averaging more than six runs per game on the road and in the last week has built a .929 OPS while averaging 7.8 runs. The Marlins don't have the firepower to keep up at home.

4-1 IN LAST 5 MLB ML PICKS | +244
4-2 IN LAST 6 MIA ML PICKS | +185