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DR. CHUCK
- Game: (951) Milwaukee Brewers at (952) Chicago Cubs
Date/Time: Aug 2 2019 2:20 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Chicago Cubs -133
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Davies v. Quintana
More analysis to come...
19-5 system backing the Cubs spot here and they are home with both teams traveling to Chicago for an early matinee contest in the Friendly Confines! These 2 teams and starters just faced off last week in an 11-4 Cubbies win in BeerTown.
The Brewers had a win just flat ripped away from them.by the.pen in the 8th inning on the verge of a quick sweep in Oakland with no one watching! They get to swallow that gross loss, hop on a flight and fly west to east (jet lag central) and play a game at 11:30 according to the Brewers players body clocks.
Jose Quintana as a Cubbie, is 12-5 as a divisional home favorite and when his team is off a loss in this spot is 4-0.
On yes...yes yes yes...Zack Davies time!
Why is xFIP so valuable and something I am harping on on a daily basis? June 1st is the day that separates his season into exactly 2 equal parts....11 starts on each side of June Day! We had been utilizing the fade of Zack Davies regularly....for those who have been following from the beginning he has fit into my xFIP system as well as anyone...even Odorizzi.
11 starts - 5-0 record/2.13 ERA/9% HR/FB and 5.01 xFIP!!!! He basically only recorded an xFIP below 4.5 in 2 of his 11 starts when he WAS going "good" at least according to his public stats. Refresher: xFIP is the exact same scale and used the same as ERA, but where ERA is what you've done, xFIP is what you're likely to be heading towards, or more roughly...what you SHOULD have done.
Last 11 starts - 3-4 record/5.05 ERA/13.4% HR/FB...and drum roll please........5.39 xFIP. This system literally worked to a 'T' and we have a spot now where his public numbers still look pretty solid but WE know it ain't true...and he is on the road...with the bullpen looking rough and really not getting all that much help from Vegas today! Amazing spot for a continued fade and for Davies to just be his ACTUAL self...the 5.39 ERA type guy! - Houston Astros Team Total Over 5.5
Game: (971) Seattle Mariners at (972) Houston Astros
Date/Time: Aug 2 2019 8:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Houston Astros 5.5 (-135)
View Analysis
Kikuchi v. Miley
This is just as easy as it gets in my opinion. The fact we have access to 5.5 for at least a little bit is INSANE VALUE. Fully healthy Astro lineup, Kikuchi is a sick Over play period...9-2 Over on the road this year and the Stros are home for the first time since they (when) won the Series with the Greinke trade and they backed Cole last night in Cleveland with a whole slew of runs! I'd probably play this at close to 3% even if it were 6.5 honestly!
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