Saturday 8-3-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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CFL Betting Notes - Week 8
David Schwab

Week 7 Betting Recap

The Calgary Stampeders started last week’s CFL schedule of games with a tight 17-16 road win against Ottawa closing as six-point favorites. In the second of two Thursday night tilts, Edmonton kept Toronto winless on the year with a 26-0 shutout as an 11-point home favorite.

Friday night’s inter-division clash between Winnipeg and Hamilton ended with the Tiger-Cats pulling off a 23-15 upset as slight two-point home underdogs. Saskatchewan closed out Week 7 on Saturday night with a 45-18 rout against British Columbia in a game that closed as a PICK to sweep that West Division home-and-home series.


Saturday, Aug. 3

Edmonton Eskimos (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) at Calgary Stampeders (4-2 SU, 1-5 ATS)
Point-spread: Edmonton -1
Total: 48

Game Overview

The total stayed UNDER 52 points in Thursday’s shutout against Toronto and it has stayed UNDER in the Eskimos’ last four games. They are 1-2 SU and ATS on the road this season with the total staying UNDER in all three contests. Trevor Harris completed 27-of-39 passing attempts for 298 yards his last time out. He is currently ranked first in the CFL in total passing yards (1,931) and he has tossed eight touchdowns against two interceptions. Shaquille Cooper had a big night running the ball against Toronto with 128 yards and a score on 22 rushing attempts.

Calgary has quietly moved itself to just one game off the pace in the West Division standings with back-to-back wins against Toronto at home and Ottawa on the road. It has failed to cover the closing spread in its last three games and the total has stayed UNDER the closing line in its last four contests. Nick Arbuckle has played well at quarterback in place of an injured Bo Levi Mitchell. He has thrown for 1,284 yards and five touchdowns while completing 73.9 percent of his 138 passing attempts.

Betting Trends

-- Calgary has gone 18-5 SU in its last 23 games against Edmonton, but the Eskimos have covered ATS in the last five meetings. The total has gone OVER in six of the last nine matchups in this heated West Division rivalry.

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CFL
Dunkel

Week 8

Saturday, August 3

Edmonton @ Calgary

Game 695-696
August 3, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Edmonton
122.453
Calgary
108.450
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Edmonton
by 14
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Edmonton
by 1
47
Dunkel Pick:
Edmonton
(-1); Under

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CFL
Long Sheet

Week 8

Saturday, August 3

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EDMONTON (4 - 2) at CALGARY (4 - 2) - 8/3/2019, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALGARY is 49-29 ATS (+17.1 Units) in August games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 5-1 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 4-2 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CFL

Week 8

Trend Report

Saturday, August 3

Edmonton Eskimos
Edmonton is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Edmonton's last 5 games
Edmonton is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Edmonton is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Edmonton's last 8 games on the road
Edmonton is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Calgary
Edmonton is 5-18 SU in its last 23 games when playing Calgary
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Edmonton's last 9 games when playing Calgary
Edmonton is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Calgary
Calgary Stampeders
Calgary is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Calgary is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Calgary's last 5 games
Calgary is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Calgary is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Calgary is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Edmonton
Calgary is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games when playing Edmonton
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Calgary's last 9 games when playing Edmonton
Calgary is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Edmonton

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Laurel Park

Laurel Park - Race 4	EXACTA, TRIFECTA &DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 4-5) / 10 cent SUPERFECTA 50 cent PICK 3 (RACES 4-5-6) / 50 cent PICK 5 (RACES 4-5-6-7-8) $1.00 SUPER HIGH 5
Maiden Claiming $25,000 • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 73 • Purse: $27,000 • Post: 2:40P
(RAIL AT 17 FEET). (PLUS UP TO 30% MBF) FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE ON THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT ONE MILE)

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * BURNING MAN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. YES MEANS NO: Horse has a 4F workout since its last race, and the workout time is faster than its own half-mile time in its last race. SKY D: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. BLUE DANUBE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. MAKEANENTRANCE : Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
5	BURNING MAN	7/2	4/1
10	YES MEANS NO	9/2	8/1
6	SKY D	3/1	8/1
3	BLUE DANUBE	12/1	8/1
9	MAKEANENTRANCE	10/1	9/1

---

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	KAMEHAMEHA	2	15/1	Front-runner	69	64	74.8	52.8	41.8
3	BLUE DANUBE	3	12/1	Front-runner	70	66	73.0	63.4	53.4
9	MAKEANENTRANCE	9	10/1	Stalker	72	49	60.9	57.0	47.0
5	BURNING MAN	5	7/2	Stalker	77	64	55.5	66.9	61.9
6	SKY D	6	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	74	72	55.4	55.8	45.8
10	YES MEANS NO	10	9/2	Trailer	70	60	49.0	64.6	56.6
8	FELIX LEITER	8	6/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	53.8	68.2	61.2
4	ALWAYS FREE	4	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	75.8	46.5	35.5
7	LEADING MAN	7	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	67.3	45.5	29.5

Unknown Running Style: PLAY BOY SKOAL (15/1) [Jockey: Castrenze Ashley - Trainer: Abramson Noah].

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Columbus

Columbus - Race 3	$1 Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) / $1 Exacta / .50 Trifecta
Claiming $2,500 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 77 • Purse: $3,400 • Post: 7:24P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES IN 2019. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $2,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. DRAMA COACH is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * DRAMA COACH: Horse has a TrackMaster "B" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. WILLOWY DANSEUR: Horse ranks in the to p three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. DIESEL'S PRIZE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
5	DRAMA COACH	5/1	5/2
1	WILLOWY DANSEUR	4/1	6/1
4	DIESEL'S PRIZE	3/1	10/1

---

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	DRAMA COACH	5	5/1	Front-runner	79	75	95.6	66.6	62.6
1	WILLOWY DANSEUR	1	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	84	78	69.3	65.8	60.3
4	DIESEL'S PRIZE	4	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	76	66	59.0	70.4	65.9
6	PHANTOM MENACE	6	5/2	Trailer	70	67	51.7	65.6	58.6
3	LITTLE FRANK	3	7/2	Alternator/Non-contender	75	64	52.0	57.8	48.8
2	FOLLOW THE LADY	2	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	67	62	47.8	48.2	36.7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Grand Prairie

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Allowance - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $4050 Class Rating: 81

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD HELEN FENTON MEMORIAL . 6 FURLONG ALLOWANCE. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS. HELEN FENTON MEMORIAL.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 WHY NOT LIVE 5/2
# 5 I'M FOCUSED 3/1
# 3 GENERAL DAY 2/1

I think WHY NOT LIVE is a solid choice. Recent figures for the jock - 35 win percent - make this gelding stand out in this group. He looks strong in this spot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the halfway point. Ran a very strong last race. I'M FOCUSED - Will almost certainly come out strong - I have liked the way this gelding has moved speedily to the front end recently. The Equibase Speed Figure of 78 from his latest contest looks competitive in here. GENERAL DAY - Win percentage with this jockey and trainer combo - 31 percent - sound. Solid average speed figures in dirt sprint races make this equine a definite contender.

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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park

08/03/19, GP, Race 2, 12.45 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.08.01 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $22,000.
Claiming Price $10,000 (Purse reflects an increase of $5,000 providing a minimum of eight betting interest leave the paddock). FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLDAND UPWARD
$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi 5 - $.50 Bet 3 (Races 2-3-4) / $.50 Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5)
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser

100.0000	4	Starship Taxi	9/2	Vasquez M A	Dwoskin Steven	JL
099.0054	6	Nation U S A	4-1	Samuel J L	Feron Johnathon
097.7477	2	Joe Beach	20-1	Reyes L	Azpurua. Jr. Eduardo	W
096.7992	7	Cash On Hand	7/2	Rios J M	Hayford- Quinones Jenn
096.5579	5	Wheeler Forty Five	3-1	Jimenez A	Kurtinecz Lilli
095.8036	9	Bravely Bold	8-1	Batista J A	Arnold. Jr. Richard P.	SE
094.3673	3	Just for Chuckles	6-1	Gomez D F	Yates Michael	FC
094.2335	8	Noble King	20-1	Alvarado. Jr. R	Sano Antonio	T
093.6889	10	Sunshines Out	15-1	Meneses M	Lichoa Alfredo
093.0577	1	Gone Diesel	50-1	Sanchez J	Brooks Marcy

After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to GP.

4	74.40	1.28	38.93	51	131	[Dirt MdnMClm] Last Race Distance Is Less Than Today
6	74.40	1.28	38.93	51	131	[Dirt MdnMClm] Last Race Distance Is Less Than Today
2	81.20	1.17	35.12	85	242	[All Dirt] Last Race (Sprint or Route) Not Same As Today
7	74.40	1.28	38.93	51	131	[Dirt MdnMClm] Last Race Distance Is Less Than Today
5	81.20	1.17	35.12	85	242	[All Dirt] Last Race (Sprint or Route) Not Same As Today
9	32.00	1.07	34.11	73	214	[Dirt MdnMClm] Race Sex Not Females
3	65.00	1.14	36.36	84	231	[Dirt MdnMClm] Last Race Distance Is Not Greater Than Today
8	32.00	1.07	34.11	73	214	[Dirt MdnMClm] Race Sex Not Females
10	32.00	1.07	34.11	73	214	[Dirt MdnMClm] Race Sex Not Females
1	32.00	1.07	34.11	73	214	[Dirt MdnMClm] Race Sex Not Females

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Mountaineer Park - Race #2 - Post: 2:25pm - Stakes - 8.3 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $75,000 Class Rating: 108 West Virginia House of Delegates Speaker's Cup S.

Rating:

#2 SECOND MATE (ML=8/1)
#10 CARIBOU CLUB (ML=5/2)


SECOND MATE - He'll most likely come from deep to circle the field and should be in wonderful shape to be a winner. CARIBOU CLUB - Last time he ran at this trip he garnered a speed figure good enough to win today's race. Running on the grass today, you should review a horse's class. This one has the top number in the bunch. A little change in scenery has got to do this one well. Reading the recent PP lines, it seems like he likes to visit the winner's circle at different racing venues. Ran a quick time for the last quarter on June 29th at Woodbine. Anything close in this race should get the job done.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 BIG CHANGES (ML=4/1), #7 CULLUM ROAD (ML=9/2), #8 ABIDING STAR (ML=6/1),

BIG CHANGES - Notched a substandard speed rating last time out in a $100,000 Optional Claiming race on Jun 27th. Doubtful to see an improved performance off of that rating. CULLUM ROAD - Tough to play any mount to turn things around if there is no wager value to taking the stab. ABIDING STAR - Just don't think he is worth it at the morning line odds.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #2 SECOND MATE on the win end if we get at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	[2,10] with [2,10] with [6,7,8,11,12] Total Cost: $10
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[2,10] with [2,10] with [7,11,12] with [6,7,8,11,12] Total Cost: $24

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Century Mile - Race #2 - Post: 2:13pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,500 Class Rating: 43

Rating:

#6 TACTICAL EDGE (ML=2/1)
#2 PRICELESS VINTAGE (ML=9/2)
#1 A RING 'N A ROSE (ML=5/1)


TACTICAL EDGE - You'll be making money right and left by turning your betting money onto this jock/handler combination. Ran in the last race against a higher rated class of horses at Century Mile. The move down in class ranks should suit her well. I like to see consistency in a racehorse. Look at this filly's PPs. Almost always in the money. That 43 fig this filly notched in her last clash tells me she's a chief player this time around. This horse is number one in earnings per start. She looks nice in today's affair. PRICELESS VINTAGE - This filly has been posting some excellent workout times. This horse comes out of a great barn for first-timers. Grieves has a very great ROI (+79 pct). A RING 'N A ROSE - Was in a $20,000 Maiden Claiming race at Century Mile last race out. That race had a class figure of 49 and she is moving down right here. A certain strong challenger. This filly is in good form, having run a good race on Jul 21st, finishing third.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 MOLDADA (ML=7/2), #3 CRAFTY ENGAGEMENT (ML=6/1), #5 RED SPARROW (ML=8/1),

MOLDADA - The fourth place finish position in the last race was not the greatest. Finished fourth in her most recent effort with a substandard rating. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this bunch. Tough to wager on any animal like this that didn't land in the top three after the extended layoff and comes right back. CRAFTY ENGAGEMENT - Almost certainly won't make much of a mark this time out. RED SPARROW - Don't believe this less than sharp equine is worth 8/1 in this event.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - PRICELESS VINTAGE - This first timer has had her last three morning works over today's track. In my humble opinion, this is a good sign. Being familiar with the track should benefit this filly.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #6 TACTICAL EDGE to win if you can get odds of 2/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	6 with [1,2]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[1,2,6] with [1,2,6] with [1,2,3,5,6] with [1,2,3,5,6] Total Cost: $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Allowance - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $19500 Class Rating: 89

FOR FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO STATE BRED RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 3 ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 LETMETAKETHISCALL 4/1
# 5 MISS LILY B 5/2
# 6 GRASSMISS 6/1

LETMETAKETHISCALL has a decent shot to take this race. Ran a solid last race. Have to consider solely on class, with some of the best class figures of this group. Has run quite well when moving a dirt sprint race. MISS LILY B - Looks like a solid candidate for the exotics. She must be given consideration given the competitive speed figs. GRASSMISS - Well above average win clip at this distance/surface. Should come out strong - I have liked the way this mare has moved quickly to the front end recently.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Del Mar

08/03/19, DMR, Race 3, 3.05 PT
5F [Turf] 00.54.04 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $64,000.
Claiming Price $40,000 (Maiden Races And Claiming Races For $32,000 Or Less Not Considered) (Rail at 12 feet). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $15,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $40,000
$1 Exacta / $2 Quinella / 50 cent Trifecta - $2 Rolling Double / 50 cent min. Rolling Pick Three - $1 Superfecta (10-cent min.) / $2 WPS Parlay
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser

100.0000	1	Smiling Angelo	4-1	Talamo J	D'Amato Philip	EWL
099.8450	7	North County Guy	7/2	Van Dyke D	Baltas Richard	JC
099.3667	3	Legends of War	3-1	Bejarano R	O'Neill Doug F.
098.0447	4	Eskimo Roses(b-)	15-1	Gutierrez M	Ruis Shelbe
097.8393	8	Eagle Song (IRE)(b-)	10-1	Cedillo A	Glatt Mark
097.0862	2	Psycho Dar	4-1	Maldonado E A	Miyadi Steven	S
096.3317	6	Sneem (IRE)	8-1	Fuentes R	Sadler John W.	T
095.9222	5	Stop the Violence	6-1	Arroyo. Jr. N	Miller Peter	F

After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to DMR.

1	89.40	1.40	35.71	40	112	[All Surfaces] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today
7	89.40	1.09	31.08	152	489	[All Surfaces] Not Third Start
3	89.40	1.40	35.71	40	112	[All Surfaces] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today
4	89.40	1.09	31.08	152	489	[All Surfaces] Not Third Start
8	89.40	1.40	35.71	40	112	[All Surfaces] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today
2	89.40	1.40	35.71	40	112	[All Surfaces] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today
6	89.40	1.09	31.08	152	489	[All Surfaces] Not Third Start
5	89.40	1.40	35.71	40	112	[All Surfaces] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today

If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser

100.0000	7	North County Guy	7/2	Van Dyke D	Baltas Richard	FC
099.6341	1	Smiling Angelo	4-1	Talamo J	D'Amato Philip	EL
099.3405	3	Legends of War	3-1	Bejarano R	O'Neill Doug F.	S
099.2013	8	Eagle Song (IRE)(b-)	10-1	Cedillo A	Glatt Mark	J
098.5595	4	Eskimo Roses(b-)	15-1	Gutierrez M	Ruis Shelbe
098.1407	5	Stop the Violence	6-1	Arroyo. Jr. N	Miller Peter
097.9670	6	Sneem (IRE)	8-1	Fuentes R	Sadler John W.	T
095.6392	2	Psycho Dar	4-1	Maldonado E A	Miyadi Steven

After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to DMR.

7	72.00	1.28	33.59	43	128	[All Dirt] Not Second Race After 45 Days Off
1	89.40	1.40	35.71	40	112	[All Surfaces] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today
3	89.40	1.40	35.71	40	112	[All Surfaces] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today
8	89.40	1.40	35.71	40	112	[All Surfaces] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today
4	65.80	1.11	22.64	67	296	[All Surfaces] Not Morning Line Favorite(not entry)
5	89.40	1.40	35.71	40	112	[All Surfaces] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today
6	83.80	1.38	41.28	45	109	[All Dirt] Best Trainer
2	89.40	1.40	35.71	40	112	[All Surfaces] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Wynn

Free Play: Arizona w/Ray +140 Over Washington

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Saturday, August 3, 2019


8/03 05:05 PM PT / 8:05 PM ET

MLB (925) DETROIT TIGERS VS (926) TEXAS RANGERS

Take: (926) TEXAS RANGERS

Reason: Your free play for Saturday, August 3, 2019 is in the MLB scheduled contest between the Detroit Tigers and the Texas Rangers. Your free play is on the Rangers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR SATURDAY: CINCINNATI/ATLANTA UNDER the total of 8½ runs