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(909) Arizona Diamondbacks at (910) Colorado Rockies
The pair of starting pitchers at Coors Field on Monday night is not going to win Cy Young awards in their careers. They are not going to be considered the ace at any time in however long they don a Big Boy uniform. They won't make an All-Star team unless one of the two executes a career year in the first half of the regular season and are selected by the skipper representing the AL or NL.
Merrill Kelly (8-12) allowed four of his six runs in the first inning before Arizona could take a deep breath of Rocky Mountain air. However, four runs at Coors Field is a lead that isn't safe for a team that is playing with confidence, yet one that is playing like they know they are going to lose.
Merrill earned his first victory since mid-June and the Diamondbacks climbed a single game above the .500 mark at 60-59. Arizona heads into Tuesday night's contest 2.5 games out of the second wild-card spot with 43 games remaining in regular-season play.
It was the Diamondbacks' 27th comeback win of the season.
As confident and free-spirited as Arizona is playing Colorado is the contrary. After the game, All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado said: "the mood in the clubhouse is one of complete frustration." The Roks just returned home after a 1-5 road trip in which they were embarrassed in Houston where they were outscored 25-9 in the pair of losses to the Astros. Colorado followed the interleague series against Houston losing three of four at Petco Park to the San Diego Padres.
There is a number of variables that have the home town Rockies as the favorite for Tuesday's game. First, the team is at home with a pitcher that has been successful this season pitching in the thin air of the Rocky Mountains and keeping the ball in the ballpark at Coors Field.
it is home two veteran starter Jon Gray against visiting rookie Zac Gallen. Standing alone the two reasons I outlined in the first sentence of this paragraph is enough to make Gray the chalk on the Coors mound.
Arizona righty Zac Gallen (2-3, 2.40 ERA) has a serious advantage the first two times through the Rockies lineup. It is the first time any of the Colorado players will have seen or faced Gallen. against Colorado on Tuesday.
And while the Rockies will have Jon Gray (10-8, 4.06) on the mound to start the game his 5-2 mark with a 3.88 ERA at home this season comes with a number of buts....
The Diamondbacks are set up for success tonight. Especially after falling behind by four runs before there were two outs in the bottom of the first inning. Gallen squares off against a Colorado lineup is neither confident nor in positive form at the plate.
I backed Gallen in his Arizona debut versus Philadelphia last week. And in my write up of the Zona vs Philly game, I noted that "It was a surprise in my orbit that the Marlins decided to give up a rotation arm for a position player. Especially one that is just bottle of 5 minute Energy above average with the bat and less-than as a defender"
I compared Gallen to another young gun who is having a career year. A right-hander that is essentially the ace of the Cleveland Indians staff, Shane Beiber. I then compared Gallen's over-the-top slider to that of Vince Velasquez. Gallen's fastball is nearly equal to that of Beiber's. The command that Bieber has with both his two and four-seamer is trumped by the movement inside of the K-Zone that the Indians Beiber has. And Gallen's slider, his second-best, and plus-pitch is equal to that of Phillies Velasquez... with one exception... this being that Gallen can actually command the pitch.
Gallen has a notch or two move velocity of Beiber. And again, Gallen's slider is Vincent Velaquez' with pinpoint command. And with that said the fastball and slider are just two of Gallen's plus pitches.
Much has been made about Gallen’s cut fastball, but his changeup is getting close to surpassing the fastball's plus-grade. The situation for the Rockies and Gray is everything but perfect. Gray's inconsistencies this season have shadowed what he has done well from the Coors mound.
Gallen is making his second career start for Arizona, having made his debut Diamondbacks debut Aug. 7 against Philadelphia, tossing five scoreless innings.
Gray has allowed as many as seven runs in a single appearance this season. In that game, Gray walked two and struck out just four in just north of five frames.
In Gray's five career starts against the D-backs at Coors Field, he’s 0-2 with a 6.08 ERA. He has struck out 18 but also walked 10.
Gray has seen his underlying peripherals suffer as of late. Furthermore, the numbers have been screaming regression for some time. The Rockies right-hander continues to scuffle with his command (3.60 BB/9) and his 1.39 WHIP is another sign that an implosion is inevitable. Gray has an unsustainable BABIP of under .275 and his near 80 percent strand rate (77.7% LOB%) has benefited him this season. Grey's BABIP is nearly 20 points lower than his career average and his strand rate is approaching 10 percent lower than his career numbers.
Gray experienced a bump in velocity this spring. But with that has come an increase in bases on balls.
Make no mistake the Rockies Gray is an enigma. One minute he can appear to be in ace form and the next look worthy of Triple-A ball.
The scheduled home plate umpire for Tuesday night's NL West matchup in Arizona is veteran ump CB Bucknor. Bucknor is wildly inconsistent with his strike zone which can only hurt Gray and his need to have a wide strike zone.
The Roks have beaten up on less-than foes this season. When facing a capable lineup and quality arm Colorado is well below the .500 mark. The Rockies are 0-4 in their last 4 games when facing a starting pitcher with a WHIP less than 1.15.
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