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Game: (419) New England Patriots at (420) Tennessee Titans Date/Time: Aug 17 2019 7:00 PM EDT Betting Line Provider: William Hill Play Rating: 3% Play: Tennessee Titans 3.0 (-110)
3% Take Tennessee (#420)
Let me start with an excerpt from my write-up supporting the Titans last week in their blowout win as underdogs in Philadelphia: “I fully understand that the Titans went 0-4 SU and ATS in the preseason last year, Matt Vrabel’s first season on the job. That was then, this is now. The Titans have much better depth this season, and they aren’t learning new systems on both sides of the football. In addition, Tennessee has a ‘bet-on QB rotation with Ryan Tannehill looking good in camp so far and veteran backup Logan Woodside looking good behind him. With Marcus Mariota in a ‘make or break’ contract year, expect both backups to get opportunities to showcase their abilities here.”
Vrabel’s quotes this week indicate that he’s viewing this home game against the defending Super Bowl champs as a ‘great test’ for his team; a meaningful quote for a preseason setting. Tannehill and Woodside combined to throw for four TD passes last week, a clear ‘bet-on’ QB duo once Mariota sits. And New England, off their blowout win against another Belichick assistant last week, is being priced a good notch or two too high in this ballgame.
Last week, the Patriots chucked the ball all over the field with Brian Hoyer and Jared Stidham. But Bill Belichick doesn’t normally utilize the same gameplan two weeks in a row in August. And while Belichick is not a coach who gives us precise information on his preseason gameplans, one role that he has not been cashing tickets in August is as a bigger favorite. At -3 or higher, New England is a 33% ATS proposition dating back to 2015; a track record worth betting against here! Take the Titans.
Line Parameter: 3% at +3 or higher, 2% at +2.5 or lower
BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (901) Los Angeles Dodgers at (902) Miami Marlins Date/Time: Aug 15 2019 3:05 PM EDT Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker Play Rating: 3% Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-155)
3% Take the LA Dodgers (#901) on the Run Line
To say that the Dodgers lineup is dialed in right now is something of an understatement. They’ve beaten the Marlins by a combined margin of 24-2 in the first two games of this series on the heels of a nine run outburst against the D-backs in their last game before this road trip began. And let’s not forget that LA has scored nine runs or more four times in five previous games against Miami since the All Star Break; bad news for Miami starter Caleb Smith who has looked vulnerable in each of his last three starts following a solid stretch in July.
Marlins manager Don Mattingly knows what’s up: “They are one of three or four teams that if they don't win the World Series it's been a bad year. They let you know where you are at in competing against them. Every time you leave the ball over the plate, they hurt you if you don't put it in the right spot. And their starting pitchers have throttled us."
Walker Buehler certainly has the capacity to ‘throttle’ the light hitting Marlins today; a lineup that has been held to two runs or less six times in their las eleven ballgames. Buehler threw seven innings of shutout ball against Miami last month, striking out eleven without walking a batter. A similar result today would be no surprise for this bettor & LA’s bullpen behind him has every key arm available to close out the game. Expect a multi-run victory! Take the Dodgers -1.5 Runs.
Game:(915) Minnesota Twins at (916) Texas Rangers Date/Time: Aug 15 2019 8:05 PM EDT Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker Play Rating: 4% Play: Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-115)
Game:(905) St. Louis Cardinals at (906) Cincinnati Reds Date/Time: Aug 15 2019 7:10 PM EDT Betting Line Provider: Heritage Play Rating: 4% Play: Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (+122)
Game: (905) St. Louis Cardinals at (906) Cincinnati Reds Date/Time: Aug 15 2019 7:10 PM EDT Betting Line Provider: Heritage Play Rating: 4% Play: Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (+122)
Game: (909) San Francisco Giants at (910) Arizona Diamondbacks Date/Time: Aug 15 2019 9:40 PM EDT Betting Line Provider: Heritage Play Rating: 3% Play: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (+127)
Game: (917) Chicago White Sox at (918) Los Angeles Angels Date/Time: Aug 15 2019 10:07 PM EDT Betting Line Provider: Westgate Play Rating: 3% Play: Total Under 9.0 (-105)
Game:(901) Los Angeles Dodgers at (902) Miami Marlins Date/Time: Aug 15 2019 3:05 PM EDT Betting Line Provider: Heritage Play Rating: 3% Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-143)
Buehler v. Smith
Buehler should probably have a dozen Ks before we all blink against this lineup....which he actually historically Ks at a 32% insane rate!
Caleb has been the stopper...but the Fish in a day game have a HARD ASS time scoring runs at all! +15% ROI for the Marlins on an Under play here too meaning with few wins they're not scoring...averaging 3 runs!
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