Wednesday 8-21-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Trends - Wednesday
Vince Akins

SU Play ON Trend of the Day:

-- The Astros are 14-0 SU at home when they blew a lead in their starter's last start and lost.

SU Play AGAINST Trend of the Day:

-- The Giants are 0-15 SU in the second game of a series as a 170+ dog off a game as a dog when their opponent's starting pitcher has same-season-revenge.

OU Trend of the Day:

-- The Rangers are 0-12 OU off a game as a dog in which they hit at least one home run and it is not the first game of a series.

Starter-Based Trend of the Day:

-- The Cardinals are 15-0 SU in Adam Wainwright's long career when their line is within 30 cents of pick and their opponent has lost their last three games. St Louis has won these 15 games by an average of 4.00 runs.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wednesday's Tip Sheet
Kevin Rogers

Phillies at Red Sox (-163, 12) – 7:10 PM EST

Philadelphia (65-60) jumped out to a fast start in the opener of a two-game interleague series at Fenway Park, as the Phillies posted three runs in the first inning. The Phillies didn’t score a run in the final eight innings, but they held off the Red Sox (67-60) to end a two-game losing skid, 3-2. Boston had an opportunity to tie the game in the ninth inning following a lead-off double by Xander Bogaerts, but he was erased on a fielder’s choice at third base, then Andrew Benintendi lined into a double play to end the game.

The Phillies received another solid outing from ace Aaron Nola, who tossed seven innings for his 12th victory of the season, while Philadelphia gained a game on Washington in the Wild Card race to sit two games out of the final playoff spot. Meanwhile, Boston slipped to six games behind Oakland and Tampa Bay for the second Wild Card position in the American League, while falling to 2-4 at home in interleague play.

Left-hander Drew Smyly (2-6, 7.09 ERA) strung together a pair of solid outings after getting acquired by the Phillies in July by allowing one run in a pair of wins over the Pirates and Giants. However, Smyly has gone backwards recently by giving up 16 runs in his past three starts, but Philadelphia has won his last two outings, including the dramatic comeback victory over Chicago last Thursday on Bryce Harper’s walk-off grand slam.

Rick Porcello (11-9, 5.49 ERA) counters for Boston as the 2016 Cy Young winner makes his sixth consecutive home start. Porcello defeated the hapless Orioles in his past trip to the mound last Friday by tossing six innings and allowing one run in six innings of a 9-1 blowout as a -275 favorite. Boston has won six of Porcello’s last eight outings, but he has been the beneficiary of tremendous run support, as the Red Sox have plated at least seven runs in seven of his past nine starts.

Indians at Mets (-154, 9) – 7:10 PM EST

New York (65-60) remained on fire at Citi Field by improving to 12-2 since the All-Star break by pulling away from Cleveland, 9-2 on Tuesday. The Mets were aided by home runs from Michael Conforto and J.D. Davis, while Steven Matz moved to 6-0 at home by tossing 6.1 innings and yielding two runs. New York and Philadelphia own the same record, as the Mets remain two games behind the Cubs for the final Wild Card spot in the National League.

The Indians (74-52) are still the top Wild Card team in the American League as the Athletics and Rays also lost on Tuesday, but Cleveland slipped three games behind Minnesota for the top spot in the American League Central race. Since the Indians grabbed three of four from the Twins earlier this month at Target Field, Cleveland has lost five of eight games, including three of five on its current trip through New York.

The Mets have yet to lose with Marcus Stroman (7-11, 3.21 ERA) on the mound, as the former Blue Jays’ hurler is coming off his best start since getting traded to New York. Stroman scattered four hits and yielded three runs in 5.1 innings of a 10-8 triumph at Atlanta as a +110 underdog as the Mets jumped out to a commanding 7-0 lead. Stroman’s final start in Toronto was a 4-0 defeat to Cleveland on July 24 as the right-hander allowed only one run in seven innings, but Indians’ ace Shane Bieber tossed a complete-game one-hitter.

Adam Plutko (5-3, 4.67 ERA) was aided by a seven-run first inning in his previous start as the Indians dominated the Yankees, 19-5 as a +140 underdog last Thursday. The Indians have won three of Plutko’s past four outings, while owning a solid 4-1 mark in his five starts away from Progressive Field this season. Plutko has seen the UNDER cash in four of his last five appearances, but tonight’s total of nine is the lowest in this stretch as his last five totals closed at 10 or higher.

Brewers at Cardinals (-108, 8 ½) – 7:45 PM EST

The merry-go-round for the top spot in the National League Central continues as the Cardinals (67-57) are currently the leader in the division after winning their third straight game on Tuesday. St. Louis blew out Milwaukee (64-62) at Busch Stadium, 9-4 as the Cardinals scored eight runs in the sixth and seventh innings. The Cardinals have defeated the Brewers in five consecutive matchups dating back to April, while the home team has captured 10 of 12 meetings this season.

The Brewers are not only losing their grip in the division race, but Milwaukee is 3 ½ games behind Chicago for the second Wild Card spot in the National League. Milwaukee has lost six of its past seven games, with the only two wins in this span coming in last Saturday’s wild 15-14 extra-innings triumph at Washington and a 6-5 comeback victory over Minnesota last Wednesday.

Milwaukee owns a 2-4 record when trying to avoid a road sweep as the Brewers turn to Adrian Houser (5-5, 3.76 ERA) in the series finale. Houser has pitched well since returning to the rotation in late July although Milwaukee has posted a 1-3 mark in his past four starts. The right-hander has allowed one earned run in three of four starts, including yielding only two hits in seven innings of a 2-1 setback at Washington last Friday. Houser’s biggest issue has been run support as the Brewers have scored two runs or less in five of his past six starts.

The Cardinals have won four of five times when seeking a home sweep this season, as Adam Wainwright (9-8, 4.33 ERA) takes the hill. Wainwright has excelled since a slow start, as St. Louis has posted a strong 7-1 record in his last eight trips to the mound. The Cardinals are 3-0 in the right-hander’s last three home starts, while the veteran dominated the Brewers in his previous outing against them on April 24 in a 5-2 victory as he yielded four hits and one run in six innings.

Yankees at Athletics (-114, 9 ½) – 10:05 PM EST

Before Tuesday, the last time these two teams hooked up came in the Wild Card round in the Bronx last October as New York ripped Oakland, 7-2 to advance to the American League Divisional Series. The Athletics (72-53) picked up a bit of revenge in last night’s 6-2 victory over the Yankees (83-44) to cash as +115 underdogs. Oakland plated three runs in the first inning off Domingo German, highlighted by back-to-back home runs from Matt Olson and Mark Canha.

The A’s remain in the second Wild Card position in the American League as they barely lead the Rays by a single percentage point. Oakland improved to 10-2 in its last 12 games at RingCentral Coliseum, while New York fell to 2-3 in its past five road series openers. The Yankees are looking to avoid their first three-game losing streak since late July when New York dropped three in a row at Boston.

Mike Fiers (11-3, 3.46 ERA) likely won’t take home the American League Cy Young award this season, but the right-hander has found his place in Oakland after being acquired from Detroit last July. Fiers is unbeaten in his past five outings, while coming off his worst outing since April in a 7-6 victory over Houston his last time out. The veteran received a no-decision as he was tagged for four home runs in six innings, but the A’s improved to 6-1 in his last seven home outings. Fiers defeated the Yankees twice last season, including as a +138 home underdog in an 8-2 blowout last September as he scattered three hits in six innings.

J.A. Happ (10-7, 5.40 ERA) has been wildly inconsistent of late as the Yankees have alternated wins and losses in his previous five starts. Happ defeated the Orioles in his last outing, 6-5 as a hefty -235 favorite, but the Yankees have won consecutive starts made by the southpaw once since early June. New York owns a solid 8-2 record in Happ’s 10 road starts this season, while the Yankees beat the A’s with the left-hander on the mound last September in a 5-1 comeback win as they scored all five runs in the final three innings.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA Betting Recap - 8/13-8/19
Joe Williams

League Betting Notes (Tuesday, Aug. 13 through Monday, Aug. 19)

-- Favorites went 13-2 straight up (SU)
-- Favorites went 10-4-1 against the spread (ATS)
-- Home teams went 11-4 SU
-- Home teams went 9-5-1 ATS
-- The 'over' went 10-5

Season Totals To Date

-- Favorites are 105-54 straight up (SU)
-- Underdogs 82-72-5 against the spread (ATS)
-- Home teams are 99-60 SU
-- Road teams are 79-75-5 ATS
-- The 'under' is 82-75-2

Team Betting Notes

Atlanta (5-21 SU, 11-15 ATS) has now dropped 11 consecutive games dating back to their last win on July 12. Oddly enough, they had three wins in four tries from July 5-12, but are now easily the worst team in the WNBA. They’re still a respectable 3-3 ATS across the past six, including 3-1 ATS in the previous four road contests.

Chicago (15-11 SU, 17-8-1 ATS) has registered eight victories across the past 11 outings, and they’re 7-1 ATS across the past eight contests. In addition, the Sky are favorites of total bettors at the window, as the ‘over’ has connected in seven straight while going 9-1-1 across the past 11 outings.

Connecticut (19-8 SU, 11-16 ATS) carries a three-game winning streak into the new week, although they continue to struggle against the number. The Sun are just 1-4 ATS across the past five games, while going 2-7 ATS over the past nine. The Sun have also had issues on the road, going 2-9 ATS in the past 11 away from home.

Dallas (9-18 SU, 14-13 ATS) have performed a lot better both straight-up and against the spread lately, seemingly spurred on by that brawl in Phoenix on Aug. 10. The Wings have come alive with three wins in the past four, and they’re 3-1 ATS during the span. The ‘over’ is also 3-1 after a 5-0-2 ‘under’ run.

Indiana (9-17 SU, 11-14-1 ATS) have been fairly competitive in most games lately, going 3-2 SU/1-3-1 ATS over the past five. However, they were crushed by 39 points in D.C. by the Mystics in their most recent outing, and the ‘over’ has hit in four in a row.

Las Vegas (18-9 SU, 11-16 ATS) has their swagger back lately, especially on offense, dropping in 89 or more points in each of the past three. They also have C A’ja Wilson back from injury, and that’s bad for everyone else. The ‘over’ is a perfect 4-0 in the past four for the Aces, too.

Los Angeles (15-10 SU, 12-12-1 ATS) have dropped two in a row heading into the new week, both losses on the road in Chicago and Dallas. They have also failed to cover in each of the past three after a 4-0 ATS run. The ‘over’ has hit in five in a row for the Sparks, and they have 76 or more points in eight consecutive contests.

Minnesota (13-14 SU, 14-12-1 ATS) limp in on a two-game losing streak, and they have dropped three of the past four while going 1-3 ATS during the span. The only consistently for the Lynx, as far as bettors are concerned, is their 4-0 ‘over’ run. The over has also hit in six of the past seven, and five in a row away from home.

New York (8-18 SU, 9-16-1 ATS) continues to limp along, as their losing skid has reached eight straight games. They have also failed to cover in seven straight, so continue to fade the Liberty.

Phoenix (13-13 SU, 14-11-1 ATS) isn’t used to this role, as they’re just hanging on for dear life in the playoff picture. They have come alive with two straight wins while covering three in a row. Defense can be credited for the uptick, and the ‘under’ is a perfect 3-0 in the past three as a result.

Seattle (15-13 SU, 15-12-1 ATS) hasn’t performed terribly well straight up in recent weeks, going just 3-5 SU over the past eight. However, they have covered in four of the past five heading into the new week.

Washington (20-7 SU, 16-10-1 ATS) is the only team in the WNBA in the 20-win club, leading Connecticut by one game. The Mystics have won five in a row and they have covered four straight. Offense is no problem in D.C., and the ‘over’ is 7-1 across the past eight, and 12-3 over the previous 15.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA

Tuesday, August 20

Trend Report

Atlanta Dream
Atlanta is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Atlanta is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
Atlanta is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing at home against Chicago
Chicago Sky
Chicago is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Chicago is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games
Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games on the road
Chicago is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta

Indiana Fever
Indiana is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Indiana is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indiana's last 6 games
Indiana is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 games at home
Indiana is 6-17 SU in its last 23 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indiana's last 6 games at home
Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New York
Indiana is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games when playing at home against New York
Indiana is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New York
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games when playing at home against New York
New York Liberty
New York is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
New York is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New York's last 6 games
New York is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
New York is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
New York is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Indiana
New York is 2-4-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Indiana
New York is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Indiana
New York is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games when playing on the road against Indiana
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New York's last 5 games when playing on the road against Indiana

Las Vegas Aces
Las Vegas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Las Vegas's last 5 games
Las Vegas is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Las Vegas is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
Las Vegas is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Phoenix
Las Vegas is 1-12 SU in its last 13 games when playing Phoenix
Las Vegas is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Phoenix
Las Vegas is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Phoenix
Phoenix Mercury
Phoenix is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
Phoenix is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Phoenix's last 10 games on the road
Phoenix is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Las Vegas
Phoenix is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games when playing Las Vegas
Phoenix is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Las Vegas
Phoenix is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Las Vegas

Los Angeles Sparks
Los Angeles is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 5 games
Los Angeles is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Los Angeles is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Los Angeles's last 8 games at home
Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Los Angeles is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Los Angeles's last 15 games when playing Minnesota
Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Los Angeles is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Minnesota Lynx
Minnesota is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games
Minnesota is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Los Angeles
Minnesota is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Minnesota's last 15 games when playing Los Angeles
Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
Minnesota is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, August 20

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NEW YORK (8 - 18) at INDIANA (9 - 17) - 8/20/2019, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW YORK is 9-17 ATS (-9.7 Units) in all games this season.
NEW YORK is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in August or September games this season.
NEW YORK is 7-14 ATS (-8.4 Units) after allowing 75 points or more this season.
NEW YORK is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
NEW YORK is 56-36 ATS (+16.4 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1997.
INDIANA is 23-36 ATS (-16.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) in a home game where where the total is greater than or equal to 150 over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) on Tuesday over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games after allowing 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record after 15+ games after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 9-24 ATS (-17.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 6-2 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
NEW YORK is 5-3 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (15 - 11) at ATLANTA (5 - 21) - 8/20/2019, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games this season.
CHICAGO is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) after allowing 75 points or more this season.
CHICAGO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game after 15+ games this season.
CHICAGO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 5-4 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 6-3 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHOENIX (13 - 13) at LAS VEGAS (18 - 8) - 8/20/2019, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 38-26 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in a road game where where the total is greater than or equal to 150 over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in August or September games over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 27-16 ATS (+9.4 Units) after scoring 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
LAS VEGAS is 17-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) in home games on Tuesday since 1997.
LAS VEGAS is 53-81 ATS (-36.1 Units) in home games after scoring 75 points or more since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 5-3 against the spread versus LAS VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 7-1 straight up against LAS VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (13 - 14) at LOS ANGELES (15 - 10) - 8/20/2019, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home games in August or September games over the last 3 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest this season.
LOS ANGELES is 32-55 ATS (-28.5 Units) in home games on Tuesday since 1997.
LOS ANGELES is 29-54 ATS (-30.4 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs since 1997.
LOS ANGELES is 151-195 ATS (-63.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOS ANGELES is 10-4 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
LOS ANGELES is 9-5 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
10 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA
Dunkel

Tuesday, August 20


New York @ Indiana

Game 639-640
August 20, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New York
104.507
Indiana
105.553
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indiana
by 1
164
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indiana
by 5
159 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New York
(+5); Over

Chicago @ Atlanta

Game 641-642
August 20, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
102.700
Atlanta
106.077
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 3 1/2
174
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 5 1/2
161
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+5 1/2); Over

Phoenix @ Las Vegas

Game 643-644
August 20, 2019 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Phoenix
104.184
Las Vegas
117.827
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Las Vegas
by 13 1/2
171
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Las Vegas
by 10
156 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Las Vegas
(-10); Over

Minnesota @ Los Angeles

Game 645-646
August 20, 2019 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
107.089
Los Angeles
120.231
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Los Angeles
by 13
161
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Los Angeles
by 6
155 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Los Angeles
(-6); Over