Thursday 8-22-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alex Smart

Aug 22 '19, 7:05 PM in 4h
MLB | Rays vs Orioles
Play on: Orioles +190 at betonline

Asher Wojciechowski(2-6, 4.78 ERA, 56 SO)may not inspire bettors as he has lost three consecutive decisions since his very strong two-start stretch last month. He hasn't won lately but he is highly under rated as he leads Orioles starters with 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings. Note: The last time his team won, when he was on the mound was vs Verlander and Houston as the Os got the victory via a 8-7 score. So small miracles are possible.
I know Yarbrough the Rays starter has been impressive since the all star break, and is on a 6-0 run, but all good and bad things must come to an end. That is what Im betting on here tonight on a value line with a Baltimore team that has won 2 straight and playing with momentum.
TAMPA BAY have lost 15 of their L/22 against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start over the last 2 seasons.
MLB Road favorites with a money line of -125 or more (TAMPA BAY) - team with a lower tier OBP (.320 or less) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.300 or better ) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start are just 25-39 L/5 seasons for a go against 61% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Baltimore Os to win on the ML

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rob Vinciletti

Aug 22 '19, 7:05 PM in 4h
MLB | TAM vs BAL
Play on: OVER 9½ -113

The MLB Comp play for Thursday is to play the Over in the Tampa Bay at Baltimore game at 7:10 eastern. This game should post over 9.5 runs as 14 of the last 20 in the series have gone over and we note from the database that Road favorites of 200 or higher have gone over the total the last 10 times if both teams scored 5+ runs at home last out. Tampa has gone over in 5 of 6 on the road vs a righty and 8 of the last 8 Divisional games. Balty has flown over 9 of 11 on Thursday and 17 of 24 as a home dog of 175 or more. Wojciehowski for the Orioles has a 6.28 Era over his last 3 starts and Yarbrough has lost his last 3. The Birds are 20 of the last 30 over vs a winning team. Play this one over the total. and cash out. RV- GC Sports

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Martin

Aug 22 '19, 7:10 PM in 5h
MLB | Indians vs Mets
Play on: Mets -125 at Bovada

1 Unit FREE PLAY on New York Mets -125
Noah Syndergaard has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in seven straight starts and has a 2.05 ERA during this span. Look for him to shut down the Indians and for the Mets to continue their success at home. The Mets are 12-1 in their last 13 home games and fans are really starting to get into it now that they are closing in on a wild card spot. The Indians are 18-45 in their last 63 interleague road games against a team with a winning record. The Mets are 8-0 in their last eight interleague games against a right-handed starter. New York is 21-6 in their last 27 games overall. New York is 5-1 in the last six meetings. Give me the Mets.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kenny Walker

Aug 22 '19, 7:45 PM in 5h
MLB | Rockies vs Cardinals
Play on: Rockies +142 at 5Dimes

Free Pick on Rockies

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Conn

Aug 22 '19, 8:10 PM in 6h
MLB | Rangers vs White Sox
Play on: Rangers -110 at GTBets

1* Free Play on Rangers -110
Two sub-.500 teams will face off tonight in Chicago when the White Sox (57-69) host the Rangers (63-65) in the opener of a new series. While the White Sox have lost three of their last five, the Rangers are winners of three of their last four.
Texas will carry a big advantage offensively into this contest. With 653 runs scored, the Rangers rank 11thin the majors. With 532 runs scored, the White Sox rank 28thin the majors. The Rangers have also hit 180 home runs to Chicago’s 137.
The pitching matchup also favors Texas, as Rangers right-hander Ariel Jurado (6-9, 5.38) faces off against White Sox left-hander Ross Detwiler (1-3, 6.10 ERA). In fewer than half the amount of innings pitched as Jurado (98 2/3 – 41 1/3), Detwiler has given up just two fewer home runs (16-14).
Although Jurado has struggled against right-handers, lefties are batting just .266 against him. Going into this evening’s game, players currently in the White Sox lineup are batting .240 in 28 plate appearances against Jurado.
In two career outings against Texas, Detwiler is 1-1 with a 6.30 ERA.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

Aug 22 '19, 9:37 PM in 7h
MLB | Yankees vs A's
Play on: A's +102 at GTBets

1* Free MLB Pick on Oakland A's +102
The A's are hot right now. Oakland has really dominated New York in each of the first two games of the series and are 15-6 in their last 21 thanks to a 6-1 mark over their last 7. A's aren't exactly racking up a ton of hits, but they have scored 6 or more in 5 of their last 7, including 6 a piece in each game against the Yankees.
I like them to stay hot at the plate here against NY's Masahiro Tanaka. Tanaka is one of those guys with ridiculous home/away splits. Hes' 7-2 with a 3.26 ERA in 14 home starts, yet is a mere 2-4 with a 6.48 ERA in 11 road starts. He's also been much worse in night games compared to day games. He has a 5.86 ERA in 13 night starts and a 3.20 ERA in 12 day starts. Needless to say this is the spot to fade Tanaka.
A's are a rock-solid 11-2 in their last 13 during Game 3 of a series. They have also won 21 of 28 at home against a right-handed starter and 35-16 at the Coliseum overall. Take Oakland!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones

Aug 22 '19, 9:37 PM in 7h
MLB | Yankees vs A's
Play on: Yankees -109 at 5Dimes

Jack’s Free Pick Thursday: New York Yankees -109
The New York Yankees should be highly motivated for a win tonight. They have lost three straight overall, including the first two games of this series to the Oakland A’s. They certainly want to avoid the sweep and take Game 3 tonight.
Masahiro Tanaka is 9-6 with a 4.56 ERA and 1.236 WHIP in 25 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 1.26 ERA in his last two starts while allowing just 2 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings. Tanaka is 3-2 with a 2.53 ERA and 0.938 WHIP in five career starts against the A’s as well.
Tanner Roark is 7-8 with a 4.01 ERA and 1.391 WHIP in 24 starts this season, including 2-6 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.415 WHIP in 12 home starts. Roark lost his only career start against the Yankees last season giving up 3 earned runs and 2 homers in 6 innings of a 3-0 defeat.
The Yankees are 32-13 with a money line of +100 to -150 this season. New York is 42-18 in its last 60 games overall. The Yankees are 11-1 in Tanaka’s last 12 starts. New York is 84-40 in its last 124 games following a loss. Bet the Yankees Thursday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness

Aug 22 '19, 9:37 PM in 7h
MLB | Yankees vs A's
Play on: A's +104 at 1BetVegas

My free play is on the Oak A's 9:37 ET. The Oakland A's took three of four from AL West rival Houston this past weekend and with last night's 6-4 win over the Yankees, have clinched their second straight series win over a division leader on their current nine-game homestand. Khris Davis, Marcus Semien and Stephen Piscotty all homered in Wednesday's 6-4 victory, Oakland's SEVENTH in its last nine games. The 73-53 A's (.579) are in a virtual tie with the 74-54 Rays (.578) for the AL's second wild card and sit just a half-game back of the Indians for the top wild card berth. The Yankees have now lost three straight for the first time since July 25-27 at Boston and while they still own a 'healthy' NINE-game lead over Tampa Bay in the AL East, the 83-45 Yanks have fallen behind the 84-44 LA Dodgers for MLB's best record. The A's go for a sweep Thursday night, as New York's Masahiro Tanaka (9-6, 4.56 ERA) squares off against Oakland's Tanner Roark (7-8, 4.01 ERA). Tanaka's won his last two starts, allowing just two ERs over 14.1 innings in wins at Toronto and home against Cleveland. He has made five career starts versus Oakland, going 3-2 with a 2.53 ERA. Roark has pitched well for Oakland in his three starts since being acquired from Cincinnati, allowing two ERs or less in each one while going 1-1 (team is 2-1) with a 2.53 ERA. Roark made his lone career start against the Yankees back on June 12, 2018, when he permitted three runs over six innings in a loss at New York while with Washington. The AL East-leading Yankees take the field tonight having lost 20 of their last 27 games in Oakland and Tanaka can hardly be trusted on the road. Yes, he beat Toronto 1-0 on Aug 11 with eight scoreless innings, but in his previous four road starts he had allowed 27 ERs over just 15.2 innings (that's a 15.51 ERA, giving him a 6.48 road ERA in 11 starts in 2019). A's get the home sweep. Good luck...Larry

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Price

Aug 22 '19, 10:10 PM in 8h
MLB | Blue Jays vs Dodgers
Play on: Dodgers -1½ -120 at 5Dimes

Dave’s Thursday Free Play:
1* on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-120)
The Key: The Los Angeles Dodgers are a ridiculous 50-16 at home this year. They are winning their home games by 2.4 RPG on average. And they should win by multiple runs tonight over the Toronto Blue Jays thanks to their advantage on the rubber. Kenta Maeda is 6-3 with a 2.88 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 11 home starts this year. He’ll be opposed by Jacob Waguespack, who is 3-1 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 6 starts this year. But Waguespack has faced the Mariners, Tigers, Royals and Rays (twice) with his only good lineup faced being the Red Sox. He yielded 4 runs and 9 base runners in 4 2/3 innings to Boston. Now he faced a potent Dodgers lineup tonight. Take Los Angeles on the Run Line.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park

Gulfstream Park - Race 7	$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi 5 $.50 Bet 3 (Races 7-8-9) / $.50 Pick 4 (Races 7-8-9-10)
Claiming $10,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 81 • Purse: $21,000 • Post: 4:18P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS OR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 22 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $8,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * VINNIE VAN GO: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. ARRIVEDERLA: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. FLAGET BRAVES: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
1	VINNIE VAN GO	9/5	7/2
4	ARRIVEDERLA	3/1	6/1
5	FLAGET BRAVES	5/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	FRANK ALONE	7	8/1	Front-runner	72	77	83.1	47.4	35.9
4	ARRIVEDERLA	4	3/1	Front-runner	78	73	81.4	71.8	65.3
5	FLAGET BRAVES	5	5/1	Front-runner	83	81	75.7	58.4	54.4
6	HIGH ROLLING DUDE	6	4/1	Front-runner	76	76	72.1	67.3	57.8
1	VINNIE VAN GO	1	9/5	Stalker	81	84	82.0	76.8	73.3
2	TOTONO	2	8/1	Stalker	68	84	44.8	57.8	47.8
3	FORTUNICKLE	3	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	71	74	24.7	51.8	41.3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Golden Gate Fields

Golden Gate Fields - Race 3	$1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double $1 Superfecta (.10 min) / $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) $1 Rolling Super High Five / $0.50 Late Pick 5 (3-4-5-6-7)
Maiden Special • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 84 • Purse: $30,000 • Post: 2:49P
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. (IF A CAL-BRED WINS THIS RACE, THE OWNER WILL RECEIVE A $10,000 INCENTIVE AWARD DIRECTLY FROM THE CALIFORNIA THOROUGHBRED BREEDERS' ASSOCIATION.).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. MERCY RULE is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * DUB TOWN: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MERCY RULE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. JIMMY G: Today is a horse's first or second race on turf, and turf starters from this sire have a win percentage of at least 15 (minimum of 50 starts). INQUISITION: Today is a horse's first or second race on turf, and turf starters from this sire have a win percentage of at least 15 (minimum of 50 starts).
1	DUB TOWN	9/2	5/1
3	MERCY RULE	7/2	6/1
2	JIMMY G	8/5	6/1
5	BOURBON TRAFFIC	12/1	9/1
6	INQUISITION	2/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	MERCY RULE	3	7/2	Front-runner	88	82	85.3	71.1	63.6
1	DUB TOWN	1	9/2	Stalker	92	84	98.0	80.2	77.2
5	BOURBON TRAFFIC	5	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	90	79	104.3	73.9	65.9
7	DYNAMIC DUO	7	20/1	Alternator/Stalker	79	78	59.7	34.1	24.6
2	JIMMY G	2	8/5	Trailer	85	82	90.1	77.7	74.2
6	INQUISITION	6	2/1	Trailer	82	79	74.9	74.9	65.4
4	ACADIA FLEET	4	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	65	73	62.6	50.2	36.2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Presque Isle Downs - Race #3 - Post: 6:15pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,000 Class Rating: 59

Rating:

#4 LA HERMANA (ML=4/1)


LA HERMANA - I'm figuring this horse to run a good race this time.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 PANA ELIANNE (ML=2/1), #1 MULTITUDE (ML=5/2), #6 LOVELY ARABELLA (ML=6/1),

PANA ELIANNE - I usually try to beat these types of chalk off the long layoff. MULTITUDE - Trying to beat this one this time at the reward of 5/2. LOVELY ARABELLA - 48/45/39, are the dropping speed figs for this entrant. When looking at today's Equibase class figure, she will have to earn a much better speed fig than in the last race to vie in this dirt route.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #4 LA HERMANA to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delaware Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $16000 Class Rating: 74

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE FEBRUARY 22. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 22 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 POLARIZATION 8/1
# 2 LOU'S CHARDONNAY 5/2
# 1 CASE DISMISSED 9/2

POLARIZATION looks to be a respectable contender particularly if the morning line of 8/1 holds. Likely to see a much stronger outing with the drop. The odds may be right on this one. LOU'S CHARDONNAY - Silvera will probably be able to get this filly to break out sharply for this event. Must be in form if the conditioner is bringing her back so quickly. CASE DISMISSED - With a competitive 71 speed figure last time out, will surely be a factor in this contest. Is tough not to examine based on speed figs which have been respectable - 62 avg - of late.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Colonial Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Maiden Special Weight - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $50000 Class Rating: 77

INNER TURF FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 SECURE CONNECTION 5/2
# 4 BELLERIVE 10/1
# 8 THREE SIDED STORY 5/1

I think SECURE CONNECTION is a strong choice. Has decent early lick and should fare quite well versus this field. Ran a solid last race. Has a strong shot in this race if you like back class. BELLERIVE - Ought to compete soundly in the pace contest which bodes well with this group. Could best this group based on the speed fig - 67 - of her last effort. THREE SIDED STORY - Change in Lasix (with second time Lasix) may be the difference to a major improvement. Must be given a shot given the class of races run recently.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Penn National - Race #1 - Post: 6:00pm - Allowance - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $28,000 Class Rating: 89

Rating:

#8 FRIO FACTOR (ML=10/1)
#9 THE WANT OF A NAIL (ML=4/1)
#10 KAIJU (ML=7/2)
#11 HIDDEN BAMBOO (ML=20/1)


FRIO FACTOR - Has run good races in the first or second starts back off of a vacation. In this race here, this race horse has notched the highest speed figure at the distance, so I have to give him the edge. THE WANT OF A NAIL - This gelding has the top turf fig in his last race. It doesn't take a college grad like The Brain to figure this here racer has a good chance. Have to give this gelding a shot. Ran a strong outing last time around the track within the last thirty days. That 83 fig this gelding registered in his last affair tells me he's a chief player today. KAIJU - Colt has shown some pace. This shorter distance should be better for him. Was in an Allowance race at Penn National last time around the track. That contest had a class number of 95 and he is moving down in today's race. A certain serious competitor. HIDDEN BAMBOO - This speedy sort should benefit from this race's shorter trip. Got to appreciate a good work horse. This gelding's last workout was second fastest of the day for the distance. This gelding is in fine form. Ran third on July 26th.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 PICTOR (ML=5/1), #4 TYGER BRIGHT (ML=6/1), #2 SWEET BABY JONES (ML=8/1),

PICTOR - Hard to wager on at 5/1 odds after the most recent efforts. TYGER BRIGHT - Going to have a difficult go of it with all the other early foot in this race. Last out it was a nice victory, but this time out the homestretch is going to be a true test of courage. Finished first in his most recent effort with a run-of-the-mill rating. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this group. SWEET BABY JONES - Not easy to bet on any pony in a short distance affair if he hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last two months. Mediocre speed rating last out at Penn National at 1 1/16 miles. Don't believe this pony will improve too much in today's race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #8 FRIO FACTOR to win if you can get odds of 4/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [8,9] Box [8,10] Box [8,11]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip