Friday 8-30-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-29-2019, 08:12 AM

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Friday, August 30

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RICE (2 - 11) at ARMY (11 - 2) - 8/30/2019, 6:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARMY is 1-0 against the spread versus RICE over the last 3 seasons
ARMY is 1-0 straight up against RICE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UTAH ST (11 - 2) at WAKE FOREST (7 - 6) - 8/30/2019, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WAKE FOREST is 1-0 against the spread versus UTAH ST over the last 3 seasons
WAKE FOREST is 1-0 straight up against UTAH ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WISCONSIN (8 - 5) at S FLORIDA (7 - 6) - 8/30/2019, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TULSA (3 - 9) at MICHIGAN ST (7 - 6) - 8/30/2019, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MASSACHUSETTS (4 - 8) at RUTGERS (1 - 11) - 8/30/2019, 7:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MASSACHUSETTS is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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COLORADO ST (3 - 9) vs. COLORADO (5 - 7) - 8/30/2019, 10:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO is 2-0 against the spread versus COLORADO ST over the last 3 seasons
COLORADO is 2-0 straight up against COLORADO ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PURDUE (6 - 7) at NEVADA (8 - 5) - 8/30/2019, 9:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OKLAHOMA ST (7 - 6) at OREGON ST (2 - 10) - 8/30/2019, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OREGON ST is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OREGON ST is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
OREGON ST is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
OREGON ST is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-29-2019, 08:13 AM

NCAAF

Week 1

Trend Report

Friday, August 30

Rice @ Army
Rice
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Rice's last 6 games when playing Army
Rice is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Army
Army is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Army is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Tulsa @ Michigan State
Tulsa
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tulsa's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tulsa's last 11 games
Michigan State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Michigan State's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Michigan State's last 5 games at home

Wisconsin @ South Florida
Wisconsin
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Wisconsin's last 6 games
Wisconsin is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games on the road
South Florida
South Florida is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games at home
South Florida is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games

Massachusetts @ Rutgers
Massachusetts
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Massachusetts's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Massachusetts's last 13 games
Rutgers
Rutgers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Rutgers's last 6 games

Utah State @ Wake Forest
Utah State
Utah State is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
Utah State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Wake Forest
Wake Forest is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Wake Forest is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

Purdue @ Nevada
Purdue
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Purdue's last 11 games on the road
Purdue is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games on the road
Nevada
Nevada is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Nevada is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games at home

Colorado State @ Colorado
Colorado State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado State's last 5 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Colorado State's last 11 games
Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado's last 5 games when playing Colorado State
Colorado is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Colorado State

Oklahoma State @ Oregon State
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oklahoma State's last 7 games on the road
Oregon State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oregon State's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Oregon State's last 16 games

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-29-2019, 08:14 AM

NCAAF

Week 1

Labor Day weekend’s top 13 games

UCLA has 19 starters back from LY’s 3-9 team that allowed 38+ points six times; Bruins have 65 starts back on OL. Cincinnati has seven starters back on both sides of ball, but has only 31 returning starts on the OL. Under Fickell, Cincy is 4-5 ATS as a home favorite; since 2013, Bearcats are 10-18 vs spread in non-conference games. Since ’14, UCLA is 6-8 ATS as a road underdog; they’re 4-13-1 ATS in last 18 games outside Pac-12. Both teams figure to start a sophomore QB. Last five years, AAC teams covered five of six games vs Pac-12 squads.

Utah won its last three games with BYU by 1-6-8 points, winning last visit to Provo 19-13 (-3); Utes are 6-4-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite. Utah has a senior QB (19 starts); its OL has 49 returning starts- they’ve got seven starters back on both sides of the ball. BYU’s OL has 74 returning starts, despite having no senior starters on OL; their soph QB has seven starts. Under Sitake, Cougars are 0-3-1 ATS as a home underdog. BYU has 17 starters back overall.

Under Chryst, Wisconsin is 11-3 ATS as a road favorite; they’re 10-7 ATS in last 17 non-league games. Badgers have six starters back on both sides of ball; they’ll probably start a freshman QB, but their OL, normally a strength, has only 34 returning starts. South Florida has 91 starts back on its OL: they’ve got nine starters back on offense, have a senior QB- they’re 9-14-1 ATS as a home underdog (1-3 under Strong). Last three years, AAC teams are 8-4 vs spread when playing a Big 14 team.

Colorado won its last four games with Colorado State, last three by 14+ points; Buffs have a new coach, a senior QB (27 starts) and an OL with 63 career starts (2 senior starters)- they’re 11-9 vs spread in last 20 games as a favorite, 12-7-1 ATS in last 20 non-league games. State’s OL has only 26 returning starts; their junior QB has 8 starts. Rams covered 10 of last 14 games as an underdog; last three years, they’re 5-9 ATS outside the Mountain West. Last six years, Pac-12 teams are 36-33-1 vs spread when facing Mountain West teams.

Home side won last three Ole Miss-Memphis games; under Luke, Rebels are 3-4 ATS as a road underdog. Last three years, Ole Miss is 5-7 ATS outside the SEC. Rebels have a new QB, an OL with only 36 retuning starts- they’v got 10 starters back on defense, but only three on offense. Under Norvell, Memphis is 16-12 ATS as a favorite; Tigers have a junior QB (15 starts), an OL with 52 returning starts. Memphis is 6-8 ATS in its last 14 games outside AAC. Last three years, SEC teams covered five of six games vs AAC opponents.

South Carolina (-2) edged North Carolina 17-13 in last meeting in 2015; both teams changed coaches since then. UNC has Mack Brown back on sidelines; he has a new QB, an OL with 48 career starts but very little depth. USC has a senior QB (32 starts), an OL with 51 starts; under Muschamp, Gamecocks are 7-8 ATS outside SEC; they’re 2-5-1 in last eight games as a road favorite. Tar Heels covered six of last nine tries as an underdog; last five years, they’re 0-5-1 ATS on neutral fields. Last year, SEC teams were 8-1 ATS vs ACC foes (44-34-1 since ’11).

Over last decade, Northwestern is 24-9 ATS as a road underdog; they upset Stanford 16-6 (+10) in last meeting in 2015. Since ’14, Wildcats are 8-12-1 vs spread outside Big 14. Northwestern has a new QB, an OL with 48 starts (1 senior, 3 junior starters). Stanford has only nine starters back; their junior QB has 20 starts, their OL only 39 starts. Last three years, Cardinal is 6-10 ATS as a home favorite; they’re 10-13-1 ATS in last 24 non-league games. Stanford opens Pac-12 play with USC next week. Last four years, Big 14 teams are 16-8 ATS when playing a Pac-12 opponent.

Road team won four of last five Virginia Tech-Boston College games; Hokies won 23-10/26-10 in last two visits to Beantown. Favorites covered last four series games. Tech has 10 starters back on defense, a junior QB (20 starts), an OL with 51 starts- since 2012, they’re 6-16 ATS as a road favorite. BC has a junior QB (22 starts), an OL with 65 starts, but has only 3 starters back on defense. Last two years, Eagles are 4-1-1 vs spread as a home underdog.

Florida State is only 12-13 the last two years, with a -17 turnover ratio; Boise is +24 in turnovers the last two years. Seminoles have a soph QB (12 starts), an OL wth 58 career starts- FSU does have eight starters back on both sides of ball. Last three years, Seminoles are 9-13-2 ATS as a favorite; they’re 12-8 ATS in last 20 tilts outside the ACC. Boise State has new QB but an OL with 106 career starts (3 senior starters); over last decade, Broncos are 5-3 ATS as an underdog; under Harsin, they’re 14-10 ATS outside MW. Last four years, ACC teams are 5-3 vs spread when playing a Mountain West team.

Pittsburgh won its last four games with Virginia, winning 31-14/26-19 in last two played here; Panthers have a junior QB (15 starts), an OL with 37 starts- they’ve got only 11 of 22 starters back from LY. Virginia has a senior QB (13 starts), an OL with 46 starts; over last nine years, Cavaliers are 2-3 ATS as a road favorite. Last three years, Pitt is 5-3 vs spread as a home underdog. Overall under Narduzzi, Pitt is 17-11 ATS as an underdog.

Oregon has 153 returning starts on its offensive line, Auburn 104; nine of 10 starters are seniors. Oregon has 17 starters back, a senior QB (28 starts) and for first time in three years, they’ve got same coach as the year before. Last three years, Oregon is 3-11-1 ATS as an underdog; they’re 6-13-1 ATS in last 20 non-league games. Auburn has seven starters back on both sides of ball; they’ll have a new QB. Last five years, Tigers are 8-16-1 ATS outside the SEC; they’re 3-5 ATS in last eight neutral field games. Since 2011, SEC teams are 9-3 ATS vs Pac-12 opponents.

Last nine years, USC is 11-24 vs spread outside Pac-12; last two years, Trojans are 3-9 ATS as a home favorite. USC has a soph QB (11 starts); their OL has 63 starts- they lost half their 22 starters from LY. Fresno lost 13 starters from LY, has only three back on offense; Bulldogs have a new QB- their OL has only 31 starts, but they’ve covered eight of last 10 non-MW games, and are 22-6 SU last two years. USC (-20) hammered Fresno 52-13 in last meeting five years ago; both teams changed coaches since then. Last six years, Pac-12 teams are 36-33-1 vs spread when facing Mountain West teams. USC opens Pac-12 play with Stanford next week.

Houston has a senior QB (18 starts), an OL with 101 starts and Holgorsen is new coach; he was 0-6 vs Oklahoma in his last job (WVU), allowing 44+ points in each of last five meetings. Cougars are 7-1-1 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog- they’ve got only four starters back on defense. Sooners’ new QB is Alabama transfer Hurts (26-2 as starter); their OL has only 36 starts. Under Riley, Oklahoma is 8-5 ATS as a home favorite, 5-3 ATS outside Big X. Houston (+12) upset Oklahoma 33-23 in last meeting 33-23 in 2016; both teams changed coaches since then. Last two years, Big X teams are 7-3 ATS when playing an AAC team.

Louisville went 2-10 LY after going 57-21 the previous six years, so they changed coaches; Cardinals have 10 starters back on defense, a junior QB (9 starts), an OL with 57 starts- they covered once in last five tries as a home underdog. Last three years, Louisville is 3-11 ATS outside the ACC. Notre Dame has a junior QB (10 starts), an OL with 60 starts. Irish is 5-3-1 ATS in last nine games as a road favorite. Louisville (+3) won last meeting 31-28, five years ago.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-29-2019, 08:15 AM

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 1

Friday, August 30

Rice @ Army

Game 145-146
August 30, 2019 @ 6:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Rice
53.275
Army
85.181
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Army
by 32
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Army
by 23 1/2
50
Dunkel Pick:
Army
(-23 1/2); Over

Wisconsin @ South Florida

Game 149-150
August 30, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Wisconsin
93.499
South Florida
73.703
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Wisconsin
by 20
61
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Wisconsin
by 12 1/2
57 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Wisconsin
(-12 1/2); Over

Tulsa @ Michigan State

Game 151-152
August 30, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tulsa
70.652
Michigan State
100.269
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Michigan State
by 29 1/2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Michigan State
by 22 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Michigan State
(-22 1/2); Over

Massachusetts @ Rutgers

Game 153-154
August 30, 2019 @ 7:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Massachusetts
68.605
Rutgers
73.760
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Rutgers
by 5
34
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Rutgers
by 15 1/2
57
Dunkel Pick:
Massachusetts
(+15 1/2); Under

Utah State @ Wake Forest

Game 147-148
August 30, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Utah State
92.730
Wake Forest
98.165
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Wake Forest
by 5 1/2
66
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Wake Forest
by 3 1/2
63 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Wake Forest
(-3 1/2); Over

Purdue @ Nevada

Game 157-158
August 30, 2019 @ 9:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Purdue
87.405
Nevada
87.806
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Nevada
Even
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Purdue
by 10
59
Dunkel Pick:
Nevada
(+10); Under

Colorado State @ Colorado

Game 155-156
August 30, 2019 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Colorado State
70.456
Colorado
79.879
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Colorado
by 9 1/2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Colorado
by 12 1/2
58 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Colorado State
(+12 1/2); Under

Oklahoma State @ Oregon State

Game 159-160
August 30, 2019 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oklahoma State
90.180
Oregon State
77.338
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma State
by 13
71
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma State
by 16
73 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oregon State
(+16); Under

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-29-2019, 08:15 AM

Analysis: Arizona State, Auburn, UNC to rely on frosh QBs
August 21, 2019
By The Associated Press

There is a trickle-down effect from having true freshman quarterbacks star in the last two national championship games.

Clemson's Trevor Lawrence capped his freshman season by leading the Tigers to a blowout of Alabama in last season's College Football Playoff title game. One year earlier, it was Alabama freshman Tua Tagovailoa coming off the sideline to rally the Crimson Tide to an overtime victory over Georgia.

After seeing true freshmen shine in the postseason, coaches aren't so hesitant about seeing what quarterbacks just out of high school can do at the start of a season.

At least three Power Five programs plan to open the season with a true freshman starting quarterback. Arizona State is going with Jayden Daniels, No. 16 Auburn has selected Bo Nix and Sam Howell is getting the majority of the first-team reps at North Carolina.

Those teams have decided a newcomer has enough potential to make up for any freshman mistakes.

''He's not the savior, OK,'' Arizona State coach Herm Edwards said after announcing Daniels as the starter. ''I don't want anyone to think that. He's a freshman quarterback, like all freshmen are, and he's going to do a lot of good things and sometimes he's going to make some errors.''

Not all the notable freshmen across college football play quarterback, of course. Here's a rundown of some freshmen who should make an immediate impact.

ARIZONA STATE QB JAYDEN DANIELS

Daniels will become the first Arizona State true freshman quarterback to start a season opener for the Sun Devils, as he won a four-man competition for the job. The 6-foot-3 Daniels was rated as the nation's No. 2 dual-threat quarterback and No. 35 overall prospect in his class according to composite rankings of recruiting sites compiled by 247Sports. He enrolled at Arizona State early enough to participate in spring practice. Arizona State is doubling down on youth at the quarterback position, as true freshman Joey Yellen opens the season as Daniels' top backup.

NORTH CAROLINA QB SAM HOWELL

This former top-100 prospect verbally committed to Florida State in April 2018 but selected North Carolina during the December signing period after former Seminoles offensive coordinator Walt Bell left to take over Massachusetts' program. North Carolina coach Mack Brown announced Sunday that Howell would get most of the first-team reps for the rest of preseason practices. Brown said the 6-foot-1 freshman's consistency gave him an edge over redshirt freshmen Cade Fortin and Jace Ruder, who also have been competing for the starting quarterback job.

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DE DRAKE JACKSON

Jackson enrolled at USC early and made a highlight-worthy play in the Trojans' spring showcase by making a one-handed interception and scoring on the play. USC coach Clay Helton said afterward that the 6-4 freshman reminded him of New York Jets defensive lineman and former Trojans star Leonard Williams. Jackson was rated as the No. 56 overall prospect in his class according to the 247Sports Composite.

AUBURN QB BO NIX

Nix is the son of Patrick Nix, who played for Auburn from 1992-95 and was the Tigers' starting quarterback when they went unbeaten in 1993. He's the nation's No. 1 dual-threat quarterback and No. 33 overall prospect in his class according to the 247Sports Composite. He gained over 12,000 career yards and accounted for 161 touchdowns (127 passing, 34 rushing) at Pinson Valley High School to set Alabama state records in both categories. Nix, who is 6-2, beat out redshirt freshman Joey Gatewood for the right to start Auburn's Aug. 31 season opener with No. 11 Oregon at Arlington, Texas.

LSU CB DEREK STINGLEY JR.

Stingley was the nation's No. 1 prospect in his class according to Rivals and was rated third according to the 247Sports Composite. He covered LSU's top receivers and recorded an interception in the spring game. He likely will open the season as a starter and also could contribute as a kick returner. During spring practice, LSU defensive back Kary Vincent called Stingley ''a once-in-a-lifetime player to play with and a once-in-a-lifetime player to see.'' Stingley is the grandson of former New England Patriots receiver Darryl Stingley, whose NFL career ended after a head-on collision in a preseason game left him paralyzed. Stingley's father played minor league baseball and Arena Football.

TEXAS RB JORDAN WHITTINGTON

Whittington played wide receiver at Cuero (Texas) High School but moved to running back during spring practice and immediately won praise from coaches and teammates. Texas coach Tom Herman said it's ''one of the most amazing things I've seen in my 20-something years coaching is how a guy that's never played a position before in his life took to it that naturally.'' With incumbent starter Keaontay Ingram nursing a bruised knee during training camp, Whittington has had even more of an opportunity to make an impression. He's the nation's No. 34 overall prospect in his class according to the 247Sports Composite.

OTHER FRESHMEN TO WATCH

Notre Dame defensive back Kyle Hamilton, Alabama linebacker Christian Harris, Georgia wide receiver George Pickens, Nebraska running back/receiver Wan'Dale Robinson, Oregon defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux, Tennessee linebacker Jordan To'o To'o, Ohio State receiver Garrett Wilson.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-29-2019, 08:16 AM

Reality Check: Why your Top 25 team could tank in 2019
August 20, 2019
By The Associated Press

Sorry to be a bummer at a time of the year usually reserved for hope and optimism, but there is a decent chance your favorite college team is going to be a big disappointment this season.

The preseason AP Top 25 presented by Regions Bank is out. There were no real surprises at the top. Defending champion Clemson is No. 1 and Alabama is No. 2. The Tigers and Crimson Tide have alternated winning the last four national championships.

Georgia, which has had its national championship hopes dashed by `Bama the past two seasons, is No. 3. Oklahoma, working on a string of four straight Big 12 championships, is No. 4. Ohio State, with three Big Ten titles and a national championship in the last five years, landed at No. 5.

Over the last 10 years, about 40 percent of the teams that have started the season ranked end it unranked. Obviously, the better the start the more likely it is a team stays in the rankings, but 19 preseason top-10 teams have finished the season unranked in that span. And seven of those were in the top five. Three times in the last 10 seasons, including last year, three top-10 teams finished unranked. The last time all the preseason top-10 teams managed to finish the season in the Top 25 was 2006.

So give a look at that top 10, rounded out by No. 6 LSU, No. 7 Michigan, No. 8 Florida, No. 9 Notre Dame and No. 10 Texas. At least one of them is fixin' to break some hearts.

The first Reality Check of the season assesses the chances for each Top 25 team to tank.

No. 1 Clemson (15-0)

Opener: vs. Georgia Tech.

Reality check: The preseason poll started in 1950. Only two preseason No. 1 teams have failed to be in the final rankings (USC in 2012 was the last). The Tigers have history and, more importantly, Trevor Lawrence on their side.

No. 2 Alabama (14-1)

Opener: vs. Duke in Atlanta.

Reality check: The Crimson Tide have not finished outside the top 10 since Nick Saban's first season. And he's still the coach.

No. 3 Georgia (11-3)

Opener: at Vanderbilt.

Reality check: In 2013 and '15, Mark Richt's Georgia teams were preseason top 10 and finished unranked. Kirby Smart was brought in to stop that nonsense.

No. 4 Oklahoma (12-2)

Opener: vs. Houston.

Reality check: The Sooners' path to ruin: The offense regresses from historically great to merely good with Jalen Hurts and the defense remains bad.

No. 5 Ohio State (13-1)

Opener: vs. FAU.

Reality check: If Georgia transfer QB Justin Fields is a bust the Buckeyes aren't in position to bail him out.

No. 6 LSU (10-3)

Opener: vs. Georgia Southern.

Reality check: OK, THIS is the year the Tigers open up the offense. What if that's a bad idea?

No. 7 Michigan (10-3)

Opener: vs. Middle Tennessee.

Reality check: The optimism about the Wolverines has a lot to do with the uncertainty at Ohio State.

No. 8 Florida (10-3)

Opener: vs. Miami in Orlando, Florida.

Reality check: The Gators' surge last season was inflated by a bowl victory against a Michigan team that sort of checked out.

No. 9 Notre Dame (12-1)

Opener: at Louisville.

Reality check: The Irish expect offensive improvement to compensate for some defensive regression. Or, it doesn't and some of last season's one-score victories against so-so opposition go the other way this year.

No. 10 Texas (10-4)

Opener: vs. Louisiana Tech.

Reality check: It wouldn't be the first time ''Texas is Back!'' went bad.

No. 11 Oregon (9-4)

Opener: vs. No. 16 Auburn in Arlington, Texas.

Reality check: High expectations for a team that scored seven points in the RedBox Bowl and went 2-3 on the road last year.

No. 12 Texas A&M (9-4)

Opener: vs Texas State.

Reality check: The Aggies, along with South Carolina, are the first team in 44 years to have preseason Nos. 1-3 on the schedule. They are a little bad luck away from a 6-6 season.

No. 13 Washington (10-4)

Opener: vs Eastern Washington.

Reality check: New QB Jacob Eason has not played in a game in two years. He was a five-star recruit. But is he still?

No. 14 Utah (9-5)

Opener: at BYU.

Reality check: The Utes have been great at exceeding modest expectations. Meeting high ones can be a different deal.

No. 15 Penn State (9-4)

Opener: vs. Idaho.

Reality check: The Nittany Lions need lots of relatively inexperienced players, including at quarterback, to become stars and leaders.

No. 16 Auburn (8-5)

Opener: vs. No. 11 Oregon.

Reality check: Failing to meet expectations is pretty much Auburn being Auburn. Then again, so is exceeding them.

No. 17 UCF (12-1)

Opener: vs. Florida A&M.

Reality check: Two years removed from Scott Frost and without QB McKenzie Milton, a new era begins for college football's brash interlopers. Sustaining it is the toughest part.

No. 18 Michigan State (7-6)

Opener: vs. Tulsa.

Reality check: The Spartans scored 32 points in their final four games last season. Coach Mark Dantonio is banking on a shuffled, though not new, offensive staff and better health at quarterback and receiver to fix it. Good luck.

No. 19 Wisconsin (8-5)

Opener: at USF.

Reality check: The Badgers were last season's big bust, going from preseason No. 4 to unranked. Maybe it wasn't a fluke?

No. 20 Iowa (9-4)

Opener: vs. Miami (Ohio).

Reality check: So two-year starting QB Nate Stanley is going to get BETTER after losing two first-round draft pick tight ends. Really?

No. 21 Iowa State (8-5)

Opener: vs. Northern Iowa.

Reality check: There's a reason the Cyclones are in the preseason rankings for the first time since 1978. Winning in Ames is hard and doesn't happen very often.

No. 22 Syracuse (10-3)

Opener: at Liberty.

Reality check: The Orange rode 31 takeaways, third-best in the nation, and a plus-13 margin (fifth best) to 10 victories last season. Regression is an uninvited and often unpleasant visitor.

No. 23 Washington State (11-2)

Opener: vs. New Mexico State.

Reality check: Can coach Mike Leach find Minshew Magic with another new quarterback?

No. 24 Nebraska (4-8)

Opener: vs. South Alabama.

Reality check: The last team to start a season ranked after a having record as bad or worse than the Cornhuskers was Alabama in 2001. The Tide was 25th after going 3-8 in 2000 and finished 7-5.

No. 25 Stanford (9-4)

Opener: vs. Northwestern.

Reality check: After two straight nine-win season, the Cardinal have to prove they can get back the physical formula that helped them win at least 11 games five times from 2010-15.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-29-2019, 08:17 AM

Week 1 Upset Alerts
Matt Blunt

After these pieces became highly popular last year, we had to bring them back for the 2019 college football season, one that is about 48 hours from really getting going. Not only were these underdog pieces popular, they also ended up turning a profit in the end, going 22-18 ATS, although the bulk of that damage was done thanks to the highly successful run backing 20+ underdogs.

Hopefully we can find a bit more balance in terms of projecting ATS winners in the smaller underdog ranges, as chances are a 11-2 ATS run with the 20+ underdogs won't happen again. The goal is to always improve and keep producing winners, and hopefully that continues as these pieces pop up every week as the college football season goes on.

The first full opening week always brings a plethora of 20+ underdogs as late August-early September is still great for the cupcake business in college football for those teams that prefer to indulge in that practice still. The really good teams are realizing that they need quality non-conference wins on their resume as well, so there is some abandonment of loading up a team's early schedule with FCS and much weaker FBS teams, but non-conference time in college football brings plenty of significant chalk, and bettors better be able to back a few of these hefty underdogs because they do cover spreads.

So let's get right to this year's opening underdogs, as we may be a month or two away from “MACtion” but it is the MAC Conference that gets the bulk of the spotlight out of the gate this year.

Upset Alert #1: Underdogs in the +1 to +9 range

YTD: 0-0 SU; 0-0 ATS

Ole Miss (+5.5) vs Memphis
The Memphis Tigers should be a player again in the AAC when all is said and done, but even against an Ole Miss team that's in a bit of a transitional year with their highly talented WR core moving on and a freshman QB, this is still a step up in class in competition level for Memphis.

That's not to say the Tigers aren't ready for it, but this is a team that couldn't take advantage of beating UCF last year without their starting QB, and defensively there is still a lot to be desired with the Tigers. Mississippi is still an SEC team with eight returning on defense. SEC defenses are known to be stout in non-conference play no matter who the SEC team actually is, and it's that physicality that I'm not sure Memphis will be ready for out of the gates.

The market has already pushed this line down to +5,5 after opening at +6 and currently showing a healthy majority backing the Memphis Tigers as well. That's the first sign that this number might be too high and/or bettors are discrediting a rebuilding Mississippi team too much. As a program, Memphis is on a 1-9-1 ATS run against SEC foes which also suggests that facing any SEC opponent is a step up in class Memphis has struggled with for years now.

If I took away the team names and just told you that the SEC team was catching 5+ points on the road against an AAC team, chances are many would be looking to take the points with the SEC. Obviously it's not as simple as that as the individual teams do matter, but Ole Miss deserves more respect coming out of the gate, and hopefully the end result is as simple as backing the team from the much better conference.

Upset Alert #2: Underdogs in the +10 to +19 range

YTD: 0-0 SU; 0-0 ATS

Toledo +12 vs Kentucky
I touched on a possible reason for fading Kentucky this week given the struggles the school has had in season openers the past few years earlier in the week here, and that's always a nice piece to add to the puzzle of this play as well.

But similar to people potentially sleeping on Ole Miss and how good (or more specifically, won't be as bad) they are, Toledo is a team that should make plenty of noise in the MAC, and Kentucky's got their own transitional period to deal with on the team this year.

Kentucky QB Terry Wilson will be called upon to be a much better passer from the outset this season, as there will be no more heavy reliance on Benny Snell out of the backfield. The Wildcats defense will still be the strength of this team, but that could easily take a step back too, as it's still just Week 1 remember and it's going to take some time for this Kentucky team to develop and reach it's full potential.

Toledo is a team that's loaded with veteran, returning experience basically across the board on offense, as there are 7 returning starters on offense for them – including their QB Michell Guadagni returning from injury – and all of them are seniors. That type of experience will serve Toledo well in going into Kentucky on Saturday, and with the market move already on Toledo in a similar fashion to what we've seen on Ole Miss – majority backing Kentucky, spread moved Toledo's way from +13.5 to +12 – this is another underdog move worth following.

Upset Alert #3: Underdogs in the +20 and above range

YTD: 0-0 ATS

Miami (Ohio) +21.5 vs Iowa
The theme basically remains the same here, as I'm not ready to believe in an Iowa team to win by more than 3 TD's out of the gate, as this is a program that doesn't seemingly blowout anyone.

Iowa enters the year ranked in the Top 25, and as part of the highly intriguing Big 10 conference, it will be interesting to see where Iowa's season ultimately shakes out. But I'd venture a guess that they won't end up ranked when all is said and done, even if they do avoid some potential powerhouses in Michigan State and Ohio State on the season.

But this game against Miami (Ohio) is one right before Big 10 play essentially begins for the Hawkeyes with Rutgers coming to town next week. There really is no looking past Miami Ohio in terms of looking ahead to Rutgers, but every conference game is going to be critical in the Big 10 for programs that believe they've got a shot at winning the conference, so there is always the notion that Iowa could build a big lead early here and then put things on cruise control to stay healthy going into next week. Covering through that backdoor is a big part of these 20+ underdogs hitting, and I expect that door to be open through the entirety of this one.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-29-2019, 09:37 AM

Friday's Tip Sheet
Matt Blunt

We've got to wait a week before we get those stand alone Friday night affairs in college football this year, but that's not necessarily a bad thing as the opening Friday of the season is never short on action. This year we get eight games of FBS action to help further along that great first weekend of college football, and with the market place geared up for these games for months now, all eight will see significant action.

However, with seven of the eight games having double-digit favorites currently listed, how competitive these eight games on Friday end up being is up for debate. Three of the seven teams laying double-digits are doing so on the road, with Big 10 teams Wisconsin and Purdue being two of those three. Michigan State is another Big 10 team in action, laying 20+ and climbing at home against Tulsa.

With plenty of action available out there, there are a few games that deserve at least some discussion, so let's take a look at a few different spots out there on Friday night.

Massachusetts at Rutgers (-15.5), Total 55.5

Rutgers as a double-digit favorite? Is it warranted?

It's not often that Rutgers gets to be laying points against anyone in a given year, but they do tend to be double-digit chalk at least once per season, and it's usually in these early season games against FCS competition often times. U Mass moved up from that classification early on in this decade, but they are still far from competitive and that will likely be the case in 2019 as well.

It's still Rutgers laying this big number though, and it's one that's been bet up since opening around -12. Rutgers is not expected to be all that competitive in the Big 10 either, but early action and market adjustment suggests laying it with Rutgers is the way to go. After all, they are 3-2 ATS the past four years as a double-digit favorite (2-0 ATS last two seasons), and the two ATS defeats were by the hook at -13.5 in a 13-point win, and a 38-point victory that fell short of covering -42. Rutgers may not be a great upset candidate in Big 10 play, but when they are projected to win easily, that's what they tend to do.

Definitely tough to lay it now with the best of the number long gone and it still saying “Rutgers” beside that point spread, but don't be surprised to see Rutgers feeling extra confident going into Iowa next week off a blowout 20+ point win this week.

Oklahoma State (-14.5) vs Oregon State, Total 74

Too far to travel for Oklahoma State out of the gate?

The betting market has already shown support for Rutgers and their chalk this week, but the same can't be said for Oklahoma State and their chalk out on the road in Corvallis. An opening line of -16.5 saw quick resistance at -17, before even more action started to settle on the Beavers, knocking it down to it's current state of -14.5. That's a move that does look a bit more significant then it really is – moves tend to be multiple points between the key numbers of -14 and -17 – but is this move going to be the right one?

You never know how the actual game will play out, but on the surface, taking a home dog at more then two TD's against a team that's got to travel a long way and has a history of shooting itself in the foot at times does make a lot of sense. But then it puts you on this Oregon State Beavers program who's likely to struggle again this season.

The Beavers do have more experience on offense that will help them be a bit more competitive in the end, but not necessarily the firepower that OK State brings to the party. With a total in the mid-70's, can you really trust that Oregon State will score 30+ here? Oregon State managed to hit that mark in their first three games a season ago vs Ohio State, Southern Utah, and Nevada, but it's not a thing I'd count on regularly from this team, even if it is against an OK State team that gave up 32.5 points/game a season ago.

It still is the Cowboys on the other side of the field though, and they are no strangers to losing games outright as multiple score favorites. It is a long way for them to travel to not really increase the standing of their potential 2019 resume much (it may be a Pac-12 team, but it's still Oregon State), and if the offense doesn't find itself in sync, can a defense that's been bad for years really carry the load? Not something I'm willing to risk a unit on to find out, as this game could end up landing rather close to either side of this current number.

Colorado State vs Colorado (-13.5), Total 57

The annual tradition of Colorado and Under in this rivalry game

The Colorado/Colorado State game has opened up the season for these two programs in nine of the past 11 years, but as is the case whenever these two meet up, support for Colorado and the 'under' always takes center stage.

While totals for some of these games have been out for weeks and line moves over that kind of time span are going to generally be greater, this total opened up at 64.5 at the beginning, and apart from a blip of 'over' money a few days ago, it's all 'under' money on this total. Considering that of those past 11 matchups between these two instate rivals, the 'under' has gone 10-1 against the number, it's easy to see why that side of the total is getting support. The hatred seems to never take a summer break for these schools and they bring it in terms of physicality every year. Oddsmakers continue to put out totals that get pounded to the 'under' and keep having to pay out.

Backing Colorado ATS is the yearly tradition as well, and with a 7-3-1 ATS record the past 11 years in this game – including entering this year on a 3-0 ATS run – the Pac-12 team has lived up to the general belief that nearly all Power 5 conference teams should be able to beat the non-Power 5 schools. This spread has really only seen Colorado money since coming out at -11, and we could end up seeing this game close at greater than two TD's.

However, eventually one of these initial numbers that oddsmakers put out on this yearly contest is going to be more accurate then the market continues to think, and of determining whether to go against the recent runs of Colorado and the 'under' in these games, it would be the total streak that I believe will get snapped.

Colorado is going to be much more consistent on offense this year, and the defense will continue to not be great. Colorado State is in a similar position this year as well, so when you've got the strengths of both sides going up against the weaknesses on both sides, chances are siding with the former will work out better.

Colorado State already gave up 42.5 points per non-home game last year, and last year's game, despite cashing the 'under' easily with a 45-13 score staying well below the 65.5 total, that final score this season would now hit current 'over' bets. It's not like it's rare for these CFB totals with major moves to land somewhere in the middle of those moves, leaving a lot of initial steam chasers left in the dark.

But having hitting that key number of 57 (and even lower in some places), I think we see these two rivals bring out the points this year, in a game that in all likelihood results in another Colorado win.

Best Bet: Over 57 points

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-30-2019, 07:19 AM

Mark Wilson

Aug 30 '19, 11:05 AM in 2h
Tennis | A De Minaur vs Kei Nishikori
Play on: Kei Nishikori -170 at 5Dimes

Free Play on Kei Nishikori -170

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-30-2019, 07:19 AM

Mike Williams

Aug 30 '19, 6:00 PM in 9h
NCAA-F | Rice vs Army
Play on: Rice +23½ -110 at Mirage

1* on Rice +23½ -110

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-30-2019, 07:19 AM

Jimmy Boyd

Aug 30 '19, 7:20 PM in 11h
MLB | White Sox vs Braves
Play on: White Sox +195 at Buckeye

1* Free Pick on White Sox +195

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-30-2019, 07:20 AM

Bobby Conn

Aug 30 '19, 8:05 PM in 11h
MLB | Mariners vs Rangers
Play on: Rangers -116 at 5Dimes

1* Free Play on Rangers -116

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-30-2019, 07:20 AM

Steve Janus

Aug 30 '19, 8:15 PM in 11h
MLB | Reds vs Cardinals
Play on: Cardinals -114 at 1BetVegas

1* Free Sharp Play on Cardinals -114

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-30-2019, 07:20 AM

Marc Lawrence

Aug 30 '19, 8:15 PM in 11h
MLB | Reds vs Cardinals
Play on: Cardinals -108 at 5Dimes

Play - St. Louis Cardinals w/Hudson vs. Bauer (Game 958).
Edges - Cardinals: Hudson 10-3 with 2.97 ERA home team-starts this season, and 11-5 overall team-starts at night this season … Reds: Bauer 1-6 with 6.87 ERA and 1.58 WHIP last seven overall team-starts … We recommend a 1* play on St. Louis Thank you and good luck as always. Thank you and good luck as always.

Friday 8-30-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Friday 8-30-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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