Sunday 9-1-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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CFL Betting Notes - Week 12
David Schwab

This past weekend’s betting action in the CFL started with Winnipeg getting past Edmonton 34-28 on Friday night to pull off the upset as a five-point road underdog. The Blue Bombers now have a game and half lead in the West Division standings.

Saturday’s doubleheader of games got underway with Saskatchewan cruising to a 40-18 victory against Ottawa as a 9 ½-point home favorite. In the night-cap, Hamilton squeezed past British Columbia 13-10 but it could not cover as a 3 ½-point favorite on the road. Week 11 wrapped things up on Sunday with Montreal beating Toronto 28-22 while also failing to cover a seven-point spread on the road.

Sunday, Sept. 1

Winnipeg Blue Bombers (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS) at Saskatchewan (6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS)
Point-spread: Saskatchewan -6 ½
Total: 48 ½

Game Overview

This will be the first of a two-game home-and-home series between the top two teams in the West. Winnipeg is 5-0 straight-up in the division this season with a perfect record against the spread facing teams from the West. The total has gone OVER in three of the Blue Bombers’ last four games while averaging 29.7 points during that same four-game span. Chris Streveler got the start at quarterback for an injured Mike Nichols on Friday night and he threw for 89 yards while running for 95 yards and a score on 14 carries. Running back Andrew Harris will miss both games against Saskatchewan due to a league suspension.

The Roughriders come into this series with a five-game winning streak both SU and ATS. The total went OVER 49 points in the win against Ottawa after staying UNDER the closing line in five of their first eight games. This was the third time this season that Saskatchewan put up 40 points or more. Cody Fajardo completed 24 of his 36 passing attempts in Saturday’s win for 241 yards and a score. William Powell led the ground game with 70 yards rushing and a pair of touchdowns on 11 rushing attempts.

Betting Trends

-- The Roughriders have a 4-2 edge ATS in their last six home games against the Blue Bombers. The total has gone OVER in nine of the last 10 meetings in Saskatchewan between these two West Division rivals.

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CFL
Dunkel

Week 12

Sunday, September 1

Winnipeg @ Saskatchewan

Game 689-690
September 1, 2019 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Winnipeg
110.446
Saskatchewan
126.512
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Saskatchewan
by 16
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Saskatchewan
by 5 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Saskatchewan
(-5 1/2); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL

Week 12

Trend Report

Sunday, September 1

Saskatchewan Roughriders
Saskatchewan is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Saskatchewan is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Saskatchewan is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Saskatchewan is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Saskatchewan's last 6 games at home
Saskatchewan is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Saskatchewan's last 7 games when playing Winnipeg
Saskatchewan is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
Saskatchewan is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Saskatchewan's last 10 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Winnipeg is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games
Winnipeg is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
Winnipeg is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Saskatchewan
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 7 games when playing Saskatchewan
Winnipeg is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
Winnipeg is 4-15 SU in its last 19 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Winnipeg's last 10 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL
Long Sheet

Week 12

Sunday, September 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WINNIPEG (8 - 2) at SASKATCHEWAN (6 - 3) - 9/1/2019, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WINNIPEG is 14-31 ATS (-20.1 Units) in road games in September games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 37-18 ATS (+17.2 Units) in home games in September games since 1996.
WINNIPEG is 31-18 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 31-18 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 29-17 ATS (+10.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 4-3 against the spread versus SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 4-3 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Sweetwater County Fair

Sweetwater County Fair - Race 3	$2 WPS / $1 Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta
Allowance • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 52 • Purse: $6,300 • Post: 1:50P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. FASHIN DASIN is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * FASHIN DASIN: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Hors e has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. GLORIOUS LEADER: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
6	FASHIN DASIN	5/2	2/1
4	GLORIOUS LEADER	8/5	6/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	RIVER QUEST	1	12/1	Alternator/Front-runner	59	44	57.5	36.2	26.7
6	FASHIN DASIN	6	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	59	46	65.5	40.0	34.5
4	GLORIOUS LEADER	4	8/5	Alternator/Trailer	51	52	26.0	40.0	34.0
2	RHYTHM DANCER	2	7/2	Alternator/Non-contender	69	45	25.3	30.2	26.2
3	DOLLIYS GOLD	3	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	55	36	0.0	32.8	24.8
5	SHAWTAY	5	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	45	28	0.0	26.4	17.9

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fort Erie

Fort Erie - Race 6	WPS, Exactor, Triactor, Daily Double, 20 Cent Superfecta 20 Cent Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8), 20 Cent Pick 4 (Races 6-7-8-9)
Claiming $4,500 • 5 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 77 • Purse: $10,500 • Post: 3:40P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE MARCH 1. THREE YEAR OLDS, 116 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 1 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 1 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,500, IF FOR $4,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $3,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES) (LIMITED TO 10 STARTERS)(*PLUS UP TO $540 ONTARIO BRED/ONTARIO SIRED BREEDERS AWARDS). IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN ON THE TURF, THIS RACE WILL BE RUN AT A DISTANCE OF FIVE FURLONGS ON THE MAIN TRACK.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. OPEONGO is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * OPEONGO: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a lay off. SKIPPY IS BACK: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. BENADETTE'S LADY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the to p three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
2	OPEONGO	2/1	5/2
5	SKIPPY IS BACK	5/2	6/1
6	BENADETTE'S LADY	7/2	10/1

---

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	OPEONGO	2	2/1	Front-runner	81	72	101.0	71.4	69.4
1	JUDITH'S ANGELBABY	1	12/1	Front-runner	0	0	70.2	51.2	38.2
5	SKIPPY IS BACK	5	5/2	Front-runner	68	68	69.9	70.1	62.6
4	LI'L MISS TROUBLE	4	8/1	Front-runner	69	58	69.9	47.7	36.7
3	HANSEN'S GIRL	3	4/1	Stalker	76	67	51.6	66.6	59.1
6	BENADETTE'S LADY	6	7/2	Trailer	81	65	48.4	69.0	63.0
7	SANDYS HURRICANE	7	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	71	65	66.0	62.8	54.3

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Blackfoot

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Trial - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $1000 Class Rating: 80

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, TWO YEARS OLD WHICH ARE ELIGIBLE TO ENTER THE TRIALS. WEIGHT 122 LBS. TEN FASTEST WILL QUALIFY TO THE FINAL TO BE RAN SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 15, 2019 AT POCATELLO DOWNS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 PYC LOVESTRUCK 8/5
# 1 BRILLIANT CUT CARTEL 4/1
# 4 DEALING MY CORONA 5/1

PYC LOVESTRUCK looks to be a very good contender. Overturf has this filly racing well and is a strong choice based on the solid Equibase speed figs earned in short races lately. She looks solid in this slot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the halfway point. The speed figure of 74 from her last affair looks very good in here. BRILLIANT CUT CARTEL - Has been running admirably and has among the top speed in the race for today's distance. Formidable jockey and trainer combo winning 25 percent of their races working together. DEALING MY CORONA - Wagerers should feel comfortable with this selection given Cervantes's recent profits at the window. Cervantes has been hot the last month, winning at a nifty 27 percent clip.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Del Mar

09/01/19, DMR, Race 1, 2.00 PT
5 1/2F [Dirt] 1.02.01 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $45,000.
Claiming Price $50,000. FOR TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $50,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $50,000
$1 Exacta / $2 Quinella / 50 cent Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double - $1 Place Pick All / 50 cent min. Rolling Pick Three - $1 Superfecta (10-cent min.) / 50 cent Early Pick 5 / $2 WPS Parlay
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser

100.0000	1	Eye On Tiger	8-1	Fuentes R	Mendez Luis	FW
097.9856	2	Riding With Dino	5/2	Pedroza M A	Hess. Jr. Robert B.
097.6672	5	El Tigre Terrible	3-1	Talamo J	Miller Peter
096.9378	3	I Want One	4-1	Bejarano R	Lerner Andrew	TEC
096.5715	6	Freedom Ride	4-1	Velez J I	Lewis Craig Anthony	L
095.0773	7	Little Cents	12-1	Cedillo A	McLean Bill	J
094.9581	4	Roses for Laura	6-1	Franco G	Sherlock Gary	S

After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to DMR.

1	49.20	1.14	28.49	49	172	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Distance Is Not Greater Than Today
2	67.00	1.23	32.41	47	145	[All Surfaces] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today
5	51.20	1.22	32.17	37	115	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Not Second Race After 45 Days Off
3	80.40	1.30	40.74	55	135	[All Dirt] Best Trainer
6	67.00	1.23	32.41	47	145	[All Surfaces] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today
7	67.00	1.23	32.41	47	145	[All Surfaces] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today
4	51.20	1.22	32.17	37	115	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Not Second Race After 45 Days Off

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Timonium - Race #8 - Post: 4:35pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 56

Rating:

#6 BIG RINNE (ML=2/1)


BIG RINNE - This horse collects a lot of cash per race around the track. I believe he will boost the lifetime bankroll right here in this race. This horse coming off a strong performance in the last month or so is a solid contender in my book. Lower weight of -6. In my opinion, a movement of 5 is important, so this gelding falls into this category.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 GIANT VIKING (ML=8/5), #3 VOODOO VALLEY (ML=5/2),

GIANT VIKING - Don't believe this entrant is worth 8/5 in this event. VOODOO VALLEY - This closer will probably be coming much too late to make an impact in this event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #6 BIG RINNE to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	6 with 5
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $15500 Class Rating: 65

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 MOONRAGS 2/1
# 5 JOYFUL FROLIC 5/2
# 8 JARDIN DE GIVERNY 12/1

My choice in this event is MOONRAGS. Tough to pass on this filly with Oliveros in the irons. The speed figure of 62 from her most recent race looks very good in here. Demonstrates the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 53 speed rating which is one of the most competitive in this field. JOYFUL FROLIC - Has run soundly when running a turf route race. Is a contender - given the 65 Equibase Speed Figure from her most recent race. JARDIN DE GIVERNY - Has posted solid speed figs in turf route races in the past.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Golden Gate Fields - Race #3 - Post: 2:45pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 68

Rating:

#2 REAL GOOD DEAL (ML=8/5)
#5 CIRCULODEGANADORAS (ML=9/5)


REAL GOOD DEAL - This filly should be in fine condition, this far into her form cycle. Taking a drop in Equibase class figure points from her August 18th race at Golden Gate Fields. Based on that valuable data, I will give this thoroughbred the edge. Have to forget about that last grass race. This filly should do better hitting the dirt in this event. CIRCULODEGANADORAS - This filly should be at the peak of fitness, this far into her form cycle. After the contest aboard this equine on August 8th, the rider is going to be acquainted with the filly much better. Filly will add blinkers to the equipment package today. That often leads to an improved performance.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 SWEET ALLEY (ML=7/2), #3 JERRYS WAY (ML=9/2),

SWEET ALLEY - Today's contest is 5 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a short distance contest in the last sixty days. Not the best of omens. JERRYS WAY - This less than sharp equine ran a substandard fig in the last race. She shouldn't improve and will likely get beat today running that number.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	No reasonable straight wagers found for this race
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Saratoga

09/01/19, SAR, Race 3, 1.34 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.08.00 CLAIMING. Purse $45,000.
Claiming Price $25,000 (1. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES
Exacta, Trifecta, Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (3-5), Double
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser

100.0000	1	Three Outlaws	4-1	Saez L	Lynch Brian A.	JW
098.6483	3	Northern Haze	2-1	Santana. Jr. R	Asmussen Steven M.	TSEC
097.8809	4	Raphael(b+)	7/2	Gaffalione T	Zito Nicholas P.
097.7384	6	Laughing Manners	6-1	Rosario J	Baker Charlton	F
097.1040	2	Preston Court	12-1	Maragh R	Morrison John
097.0202	5	Talent Scout	3-1	Carmouche K	Duggan David P.
093.3448	7	Ari's Naughty Luca	15-1	Davis D	Quick Patrick J.	L

After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to SAR.

1	52.20	1.77	23.53	8	34	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Actual Post 1 And Distance 6f or 6 1/2f
3	36.60	1.33	21.82	12	55	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Actual Post Not Greater Than 9 And Distance 6f or 6 1/2f
4	36.60	1.33	21.82	12	55	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Actual Post Not Greater Than 9 And Distance 6f or 6 1/2f
6	36.60	1.33	21.82	12	55	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Actual Post Not Greater Than 9 And Distance 6f or 6 1/2f
2	36.60	1.33	21.82	12	55	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Actual Post Not Greater Than 9 And Distance 6f or 6 1/2f
5	36.60	1.33	21.82	12	55	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Actual Post Not Greater Than 9 And Distance 6f or 6 1/2f
7	36.60	1.33	21.82	12	55	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Actual Post Not Greater Than 9 And Distance 6f or 6 1/2f

* Dynamic condition may change before the race. Confirm before using stats for top rated horse.