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DR. CHUCKBASEBALL PLAYS
- Game: (913) Oakland Athletics at (914) Kansas City Royals
Date/Time: Aug 29 2019 1:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Total Over 10.0 (-110)
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Bassitt v. Sparkman
1) wind blowing straight out at Kauffman today for a sweltering hot, humid, ball flying out day with 14mph winds.
2) Bill Welke is the home plate umpire today...and is as terrible for home teams as they come season...-10 Units and a full run more for the road team on average.
(Sidenote: the Over here and the A's were in a dead heat for the bigger play...but the Royals offense coming alive a tiny bit yesterday plus we should see all 18 at bats today and neither bullpen is very good...with the Royals being quite bad since 8/1)
3) No starter since the end of May (when he became a regular starter) has induced LESS swings and misses than ole Glenn on the mound for Ned Yost. He is bottom 10 inducing soft contact over the same period at just 11%...meaning 89% of the contact he allows (most of anyone) is medium to hard (both north of 40%!) and with these gusty winds today this isn't gonna be good against this nasty lineup! He also has a GB/FB ratio lower than all but a dozen starters in the league and a HR/FB ratio right near 20% or double the league average...with a BABIP well above .350!
4) Since 8/15 no team has takes better against RHP on the road than the A's with a .435 wOBA...even more dangerous against a pitcher with the wind in his face pitching to contact...fly ball contact at that...HRs might abound early...maybe often! They also have a .400 BABIP during that time and plays to another Sparkman disadvantage.
5) Chris Bassitt is certainly the better starter going today and has looked decent of late...and while most of the advantages lean toward the A's offense...he is right at the bottom of the league with just an 8% swing and miss rate...and while we hit with an easy BIG win early this week in this same matchup due to the Royals offensige futility...Bassitt might allow them to build on a smidge of the momentum they gained with a win last night to enable the possibility of a split today!
Runs should abound in the early innings on both starters and the A's should look more like they did on Monday with our rocking chair winner and hopefully do their part at making today's AS EASY!
Also recommend a play on the A's -1 if you can get it...at a play of 5% or damn close...1.5 could burn us like Tuesday.but worth a 3% play or so if all can find. ML is worth a big look as well but the price is (justifiably) gross... - Game: (913) Oakland Athletics at (914) Kansas City Royals
Date/Time: Aug 29 2019 1:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Oakland Athletics -1.0 (-121)
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Bassitt v. Sparkman
Extensive analysis in 5% play...or with All Access - use discount code MLB99 at checkout
wind + Sparkman + Welke + A's on the road off a loss is the basis - Game: (917) Minnesota Twins at (918) Chicago White Sox
Date/Time: Aug 29 2019 2:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Total Under 6.0 (-101)
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Berrios v. Cease
Joe West is the crux of this bet today...as he is an Under champ umpire behind the plate. He is 7-17 O/U overall and 3-11 when 2 right handers face off as well as 3-9 O/U in the AL...meaning the addition of a DH on both ends does not inhibit his ability.
I have faith in Berrios and the issue will most likely be Dylan Cease...who is a young rookie struggling to keep some consistency in his starts...in fact having his worst start facing these Twins....turns it around today with a swirling right to left strong wind making things tough more on the hitters early than the pitchers
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