Saturday 9-7-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Kentucky Downs - Race #5 - Post: 2:29pm - Maiden Special - 6.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $130,000 Class Rating: 88

Rating:

#7 GRIT AND CURIOSITY (ML=8/1)
#14 TELL YOUR DADDY (ML=4/1)
#13 DECLINED (ML=3/1)


GRIT AND CURIOSITY - This is the only real stalker in the race. The last time I saw this horse was at Churchill Downs in a race with a class rating of 94. Dropping considerably in class figure this time around puts him in a solid position in this race. This race horse is racing on the turf for the first time. He should be tough, coming off a second place finish in his race on Jun 9th on a sluggish track. Look for this colt to run much better right here. Last race at Churchill Downs finishing eighth in the slop is no indication of his true talent. TELL YOUR DADDY - This horse likes the turf a whole heck of a lot better. Look at the start 2 races back on Jun 29th and take a note on the surface change. We may be sitting on a real live one! Pessin drops him down to this level. You don't need too much more data to figure that this thoroughbred has a good chance at this level. Finished off the board last out at Ellis Park, but was within five lengths of the winner. Opening at 4/1 makes me think he's got a chance. DECLINED - Ortiz comes to race after getting to know the colt in the last contest.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 LIFE MISSION (ML=7/2), #16 EMBELLISHER (ML=9/2), #8 SPECIAL RESERVE (ML=5/1),

LIFE MISSION - Difficult to keep chasing this kind of 'bridesmaid' horse. EMBELLISHER - In any event of 6 1/2 furlongs, I like to bet on a contender that has been looking good in short distance contests lately. A runner should have more speed at 1 mile to get me going about his chances at 6 1/2 furlongs. Quite unimpressive speed rating last race out at Saratoga at 1 mile. Don't feel this steed will improve too much in today's event. SPECIAL RESERVE - No success for this vulnerable equine in a short distance race over the last couple of months tells me that this gelding is in a tough spot

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - GRIT AND CURIOSITY - I always consider the thoroughbred with the highest average class rating in turf races. Should be a part of it today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #7 GRIT AND CURIOSITY on the win end if we get at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	7 with [13,14]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [7,13,14] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[7,13,14] with [7,13,14] with [2,7,13,14,16] with [2,7,13,14,16] Total Cost: $36

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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Belmont Park

09/07/19, BEL, Race 9, 5.15 ET
1 3/8M [Inner Turf] 2.10.01 STAKES. Purse $750,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (9-11), Double
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser

100.0000	3	Lady Prancealot (IRE)	9/2	Talamo J	Baltas Richard	TSW
099.6262	1	(F)Edisa	5/2	Prat F	de Royer-Dupre Alain	J
098.8403	8	Art of Almost	5-1	Castellano J	Attfield Roger L.
098.2795	2	Romantic Pursuit	15-1	Saez L	McLaughlin Kiaran P.	FL
097.7978	6	(F)Wonderment (IRE)	7/2	Pasquier S	Clement Nicolas
097.3215	5	(F)Love So Deep (JPN)	9/2	Spencer J P	Chapple-Hyam Jane
097.2116	4	Desert Ride	8-1	Velazquez J R	Howard Neil J.	EC
095.2254	7	Dyna Passer	12-1	Lezcano J	Albertrani Thomas

After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to BEL.

3	53.70	1.36	42.67	32	75	[Turf Not_MdnMClm] Race Distance Route
1	53.70	1.36	42.67	32	75	[Turf Not_MdnMClm] Race Distance Route
8	53.70	1.36	42.67	32	75	[Turf Not_MdnMClm] Race Distance Route
2	53.70	1.36	42.67	32	75	[Turf Not_MdnMClm] Race Distance Route
6	53.70	1.36	42.67	32	75	[Turf Not_MdnMClm] Race Distance Route
5	53.70	1.36	42.67	32	75	[Turf Not_MdnMClm] Race Distance Route
4	53.70	1.36	42.67	32	75	[Turf Not_MdnMClm] Race Distance Route
7	53.70	1.36	42.67	32	75	[Turf Not_MdnMClm] Race Distance Route

If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser

100.0000	3	Lady Prancealot (IRE)	9/2	Talamo J	Baltas Richard	TSW
099.6861	1	(F)Edisa	5/2	Prat F	de Royer-Dupre Alain	J
099.0046	2	Romantic Pursuit	15-1	Saez L	McLaughlin Kiaran P.	FL
097.7393	8	Art of Almost	5-1	Castellano J	Attfield Roger L.
097.0893	6	(F)Wonderment (IRE)	7/2	Pasquier S	Clement Nicolas
096.5431	5	(F)Love So Deep (JPN)	9/2	Spencer J P	Chapple-Hyam Jane
094.8671	4	Desert Ride	8-1	Velazquez J R	Howard Neil J.	EC
094.4489	7	Dyna Passer	12-1	Lezcano J	Albertrani Thomas

After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to BEL.

No Profitable Conditions For Any Horse

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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Louisiana Downs

09/07/19, LAD, Race 1, 12.00 CT
5F [Dirt] 00.57.00 CLAIMING. Purse $7,000.
Claiming Price $5,000. FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLDAND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES
Daily Double / Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / .50 Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3)
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser

100.0000	4	Gin's Sooner	5-1	Del-Cid H	Duhon Joe O.	FEL
098.3410	5	Goldie Fastlane	5-1	Guerrero J A	Antwine Michael	W
097.7288	1	Boss Lady Melissa	7/2	Dominguez J	Cates Al	SC
097.6671	6	Tedders Angel	2-1	Flores R	Dixon Tim
095.8847	3	Wimbledon's Kiss	5/2	Saenz D	Ramirez Eduardo	JT
094.2471	2	Snug Lady	12-1	Martinez O	Lara Jorge

After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to DMR.

4	61.40	1.20	32.47	50	154	[All Surfaces] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today
5	61.40	1.20	32.47	50	154	[All Surfaces] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today
1	56.60	1.73	35.90	14	39	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Best Closer
6	47.60	1.21	30.09	34	113	[All Dirt] Not Third Race After 45 Days Off
3	77.60	1.28	40.43	57	141	[All Dirt] Best Trainer
2	61.40	1.20	32.47	50	154	[All Surfaces] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today

[Can'tPickAWinner]

1. NSA(The Legend) CFB – Kennesaw St +5
2. Gameday Network CFB – Akron +8.5
3. VegasSI.com CFB – Georgia Tech -6
4. Vegas Line Crushers CFB – So Illinois +5.5
5. Sports Action 365 CFB – Colorado over 64
6. Point Spread Report CFB – UCLA -8
7. Lou Panelli CFB – North Carolina over 46
8. Gerry “Big Cat” Andino CFB – Oregon St +7
9. VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club CFB – California +13.5
10. William E. Stockton CFB – Fresno St +3
11. Vincent Pioli CFB – Michigan St -15.5
12. Steve “Scoop” Kendall CFB – BYU over 53
13. SCORE CFB – San Diego St over 45
14. East Coast Line Movers CFB – Connecticut +21
15. Tony Campone CFB – Richmond +33.5
16. Chicago Sports Group CFB – Syracuse +1
17. Hollywood Sportsline CFB – Ohio +4
18. VIP Action CFB – Memphis over 68.5
19. South Beach Sports CFB – So Illinois under 79.5
20. Las Vegas Sports Commission CFB – Georgia Southern -10.5
21. NY Players Club CFB – LSU -7
22. Fred Callahan CFB – North Carolina +5
23. Las Vegas Private CEO Club CFB – UNLV PK
24. Michigan Sports CFB – Tulsa -6.5
25. National Consensus Report CFB – BYU +3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Andre Ramirez

Sep 07 '19, 3:30 PM in 28m
NCAA-F | Southern Illinois vs UMass
Play on: UNDER 79½ -120

CFB 100 DIME INSIDE MOVE GOM
79.5 UNDER
Umass has a new face in the Quarterback position. Randall West doesn't have much experience, and in last weeks performance, he threw for 106 yards hitting one touchdown, and tossing a pick. The Bookmakers have this line extremely high, because of last years point averages. Southern Illinois is dealing with QB issues. The new coach benched his 1st string QB for a 2nd string. Southern Illinois had to rely on the run game just to put points on the board. Both teams are bad, and expect this game to stay way under the total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brad Diamond

Sep 07 '19, 3:30 PM in 28m
NCAA-F | Southern Miss vs Mississippi State
Play on: Southern Miss +16½ -109 at GTBets

SOUTHERN MISS+ (339) over Mississippi State, the Bulldogs show off 38-28 neutral site win over UL Lafayette last week. The Golden Eagles defeated FCS Alcorn State 38-10 which is truly not the best venue tendering an SEC unit. Overall the series (14-14-1) has been closely contested, and this season we find Southern with more offense guided by super hurler QB Abraham who will effectively give problems to the somewhat inconsistent defense of MSU. State has covered the last 4 in the series. The Golden Eagles played well against SEC Auburn last year only to lose 24-13. Currently Mississippi State has cashed 4 in a row at home, but Southern Miss is 5-2 ATS against the SEC and overall 14-6-1 ATS L21 non-conference games, take the points

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover

Sep 07 '19, 4:00 PM in 58m
NCAA-F | UTSA vs Baylor
Play on: OVER 58 -109

Baylor has a shot to win 10 games this season. The Bears must fare well in nonconference for that to happen. Baylor blasted Stephen F. Austin, 56-17, last week and the Bears should win big against the University Texas-San Antonio in this one. The Bears should produce a lot of points based on their balanced attack, skill position depth and the Roadrunners' weak secondary. Charlie Brewer is one of the better quarterbacks in the Big 12. He is surrounded by good skill position players with Denzel Mims being one of the elite wide receivers in the conference. Baylor may have this one wrapped up at halftime. So its reserves figure to play extensively. Baylor backup QB Gerry Bohanon looked good last week. Baylor rolled past UTSA, 37-20, on the road last season. The Roadrunners have improved offensively thanks to promising freshmen, dual threat QB Frank Harris and running back Sincere McCormick. The Bears' defense is going through growing pains and will be vulnerable especially early in the season. So expect the Roadrunners to contribute their share of points. Traditionally, Baylor has been an Over team in nonconference matchups with the Over cashing in 22 of the last 30 (73%) instances.

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Brandon Lee

Sep 07 '19, 7:10 PM in 4h
MLB | Indians vs Twins
Play on: Indians +146 at pinnacle

10* FREE MLB PICK (Indians +146)
I"ll take my chances here with Cleveland cashing in a win as a big road dog at Minnesota. Twins are getting way too much love here against the Indians Aaron Civale. In his 7 starts the guy has posted a 1.94 ERA and 1.032 WHIP. That includes a start at Minnesota early in August, where he allowed just 1 run on 4 hits in 6 innings. Twins will turn to Jake Odorizzi, who has a 4.50 ERA and 1.312 WHIP In his last 3 starts and is just 3-4 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.407 WHIP in 12 career starts against the Indians. Give me Cleveland +146!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ray Monohan

Sep 07 '19, 10:30 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | Stanford vs USC
Play on: UNDER 43½ -110

UNDER 43.5
In case you live under a rock this matchup is going to feature back up QB’s. The Cardinal and Trojans both endured some back luck in Week 1 as their prized starting QBs went down with injuries. For USC QB JT Daniels is out for the season with a torn ACL which gives the ball to true freshman Kedon Slovis.
On the other side, Stanford's KJ Costello went down with a head injury in the 2nd quarter against Northwestern, there was some hope that he might make it back this week, but he has since been ruled out. So we will see Junior Davis Mills making his first career start. Despite the high school hype, the 6-foot-4, 214-pounder has played in just two games during his Stanford career.
I’m predicting we won’t see much poise or accuracy out of either of these two QB’s on Saturday night and that leaves the game in the hands of the running backs and the defenses. That equation will equal a lower scoring game. Expect to see a ton of mistakes on the field, in what could be an ugly game to watch.
A couple trends of note… The Under is 5-1 in Trojans last 6 games following a straight up win. AND The Under is 11-5 in Cardinal last 16 games following a straight up win.
Back the Under.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Saturday 5* FREE CFB O/U Play