Service Plays Monday 9/16/19

[dawggy]

DR. CHUCK


Game: (911) Baltimore Orioles at (912) Detroit Tigers
Date/Time: Sep 16 2019 4:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Baltimore Orioles -0.5 (-110)

View Analysis

Means v. Alexander

Baltimore and Detroit are in an existential battle for the bottom and the top spot in the draft! The Tigers hold a pretty solid lead and the O's have improved a large amount over the absolute debacle of the 2018 season! John Means has been a season long bright spot for the O's this season as well as the lineup in spurts against LHP. Over the past month (back to 8/15) no team in the MLB has been better in my ratings again LHP than the Baltimore Orioles! The boast the highest wRAA and wRC+ and a .400 wOBA with a legitimately impressively low 15% K rate!

Tyler Alexander is getting the start for the Tigers this afternoon...and if you need any evidence they are tossing their hands in the air...he was a starter in July and into August and was quite pitiful. He was relegated to the bullpen and has been almost exactly no better since that...so of course he gets the ball to open tonight's game.

I trust Means to come out hot as in his last 6 starts he has almost always been heading for a quality start and/or nailed it hard...often dominating the beginning of games...but the O's can put some runs up again Alexander in an expanded role and we can cash this and worry litle about what happens late in this game...as the Tigers solidify the spot at the top of the 2020 MLB Draft.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Winningham

MLB

Baltimore -145

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Miller locks

7:40 pm est mlb
san diego padres vs. Milwaukee brewers

pick: Milwaukee brewers (-160)

risk: 11 units

7:40 pm est mlb
chicago white sox vs. Minnesota twins

pick: Minnesota twins -1.5 (-127)

risk: 11 units

8:15 pm est nfl
cleveland browns vs. New york jets

pick: New york jets (+226)

risk: 11 units

10:07 pm est mlb
kansas city royals vs. Oakland athletics

pick: Oakland athletics -1.5 (-147)

risk: 11 units

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sleepy j

3 unit Browns -6.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

+EV: NFL 4u: 289 Cleveland Browns ov26 -115 (Team Total Points) (Monday, September 16th)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dwayne Bryant
4% Jets +6.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFAC

jets +7 -120 800
Jets over 45.5 800

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Demarco

Top-Rate 15 Dime Release

jets

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Valentino

75 DIME

Winner # 6 of 7

Monday Must-Play Lock

Browns

[B*mb07]

Dime Man - Twins Nationals under Champagne - Brewers

[dawggy]

ROB VENOBASEBALL PLAYS

• Game: (913) Chicago White Sox at (914) Minnesota Twins
  Date/Time: Sep 16 2019 7:40 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Westgate
  Play Rating: 5%
  Play: Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-125)
  
  View Analysis

[dawggy]

DREW MARTINFOOTBALL PLAYS

• Game: (325) Temple at (326) BUFFALO U
  Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 3:30 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Heritage
  Play Rating: 3%
  Play: Temple -14.0 (-108)
  
  View Analysis
  
  2% at 16.5

[dawggy]

dr. chuck

• Game: (911) Baltimore Orioles at (912) Detroit Tigers
  Date/Time: Sep 16 2019 4:10 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: 1H Baltimore Orioles -0.5 (-110)
  
  View Analysis
  
  Means v. Alexander
  Baltimore and Detroit are in an existential battle for the bottom and the top spot in the draft! The Tigers hold a pretty solid lead and the O's have improved a large amount over the absolute debacle of the 2018 season! John Means has been a season long bright spot for the O's this season as well as the lineup in spurts against LHP. Over the past month (back to 8/15) no team in the MLB has been better in my ratings again LHP than the Baltimore Orioles! The boast the highest wRAA and wRC+ and a .400 wOBA with a legitimately impressively low 15% K rate!
  Tyler Alexander is getting the start for the Tigers this afternoon...and if you need any evidence they are tossing their hands in the air...he was a starter in July and into August and was quite pitiful. He was relegated to the bullpen and has been almost exactly no better since that...so of course he gets the ball to open tonight's game.
  I trust Means to come out hot as in his last 6 starts he has almost always been heading for a quality start and/or nailed it hard...often dominating the beginning of games...but the O's can put some runs up again Alexander in an expanded role and we can cash this and worry litle about what happens late in this game...as the Tigers solidify the spot at the top of the 2020 MLB Draft.
  
• Lopez underrated, Twins following Indians series letdown FLYER
  Game: (913) Chicago White Sox at (914) Minnesota Twins
  Date/Time: Sep 16 2019 7:40 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
  Play Rating: 2%
  Play: Chicago White Sox +217
  
  View Analysis
  
  
• Game: (909) Miami Marlins at (910) Arizona Diamondbacks
  Date/Time: Sep 16 2019 9:40 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Westgate
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: 1H Total Under 5.0 (-110)
  
  View Analysis
  
  Pablo v. Ray
  2 teams flat out reeling right now...with the Dbacks having all kinds trouble with the Reds and Mets the past week plus and losing 8 of 12 heading down the playoff stretch. They scored a whopping 6 runs total in the weekend Reds series...and they invite in the Fish who face a second straight west coast series after they spent the weekend in the Bay agains the Giants and scored a total of 5 runs!
  Neither team can get any offense going and now they have 2 plus pitchers on the mound with Lopez and Ray who miss a TON of bats and especially early it is hard to imagine either offense comes out swinging whatsoever. I also really do like the Under if you can get a 9 at one of your outs.
  Gerry Davis behind the plate is also nearly a 65% Under play in the NL this season and a couple of struggling mightily lineups with pitchers batting...the Under 5 here sure feels like it might be the VALUE play of the whole board!
  Check this play out and watch goose eggs go up while you watch the MNF game and hope it keeps your interest!
  
• Game: (915) Kansas City Royals at (916) Oakland Athletics
  Date/Time: Sep 16 2019 10:07 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Oakland Athletics -1.5 (-145)
  
  View Analysis
  
  Sparkman v. Roark
  Crazy price for a run line even with this being the home team. Sparkman is an easy fade...and even being a RHP with the A's even more stellar against LHP...winning this by 2 runs despite the merely 8 team at bats shouldn't be all that difficult and over earlier than late in this contest!

[dawggy]

BIG TICKET 5% NL GAME ~ MONTH 13-5
Game:(903) Washington Nationals at (904) St. Louis Cardinals
Date/Time: Sep 16 2019 7:45 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Washington Nationals -133

View Analysis

PLAY: Washington Nationals -133 (play is good to -150)
5% confidence rating
LIST PITCHERS: Strasburg and Hudson

(903) Washington Nationals at (904) St. Louis Cardinals

The Nationals and Cardinals tangle on Monday Night at Busch Stadium in downtown St Louis. Both National League clubs are fighting for postseason rights. The Nationals head into Monday night's contest with the top spot in the NL wild card. The Cardinals rest in first place in the NL Central with a two game edge on second place Chicago. The Nationals have a one-and-one-half-game lead over the same Chicago Cubs who have a one game lead over divinely foe Milwaukee for the second spot in the wild card chase.

Nationals' right-hander Anibal Sanchez defeated his former employer for the third time this season, Howie Kendrick homered and drove in three runs and the Nationals avoided a three-game sweep at the hands of NL East first place Atlanta on Sunday.

Ryan Braun hit a grand slam in the ninth inning of Sunday's game against the NL Central first place Cards. Bruan's homerun was the go-ahead hit against St Louis reliever Junior Fernandez and it came with two outs in the ninth inning. St Louis closer Carlos Martinez spent Saturday night in a hospital due to respiratory issues and was not at the ballpark Sunday.

Washington Nationals (82-66) at St. Louis Cardinals (83-66)

The Nats send right-hander Stephen Strasburg (17-6, 3.49) to the Busch mound to oppose righty Dakota Hudson (15-7, 3.38). At first glance one that didn't know and understand the skill set of Monday night's starters would think they were basically equal if for nothing else their similar surface numbers (wins/losses and ERA).

The truth is that there is very little similar when comparing the two right-handed starters.

Nationals

Strasburg earned his seventeenth win on Wednesday night in Minnesota. The Nationals defeated The Twins by a 6-2 final in which Strasburg threw six innings of two run baseball. Strasburg has been unusually durable and his command has become elite. Strasburg has 229 strikeouts with just 49 walks in 191 innings this season.

The righty has one start against the Birds this year and that start was a win. In 6.2 innings of work against the Cardinals this year the Nats No. 2 has a 1.35 ERA with two walks against nine strikeouts.

Cardinals

Hudson comes off a turn in which he allowed one hit in six innings in a win 10-0 over the Giants at Busch Stadium. On the year, Hudson has now made 30 starts and has a 3.38 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP. The delta between his ERA and his xFIP point to not just batted ball luck but extreme fortune on balls hit in play against Hudson.

His strikeout rate is well below average (17% K) and he walks far too many batters (11% BB) for a right-hander that is below league average in recording swinging strikes. The primary variable in Hudson being successful is twofold. That being the batted ball luck I mentioned previously. And as is the case for all big league pitchers the combination of less-than swinging strikes and 90-plus mph exit velocity off the oppositions bats with a 10-plus percent bases on balls ratio is nothing short of a time bomb waiting to implode.

The bare naked truth is that Strasburg is Cy Young worthy and is smack-dab in the middle of the award conversation. He enters tonight's big game and important series in a matchup of starting pitching that isn't close. And in a match that he is easily the most likely to lead his team and mates to a victory he is head and shoulder and night and day better on a day he doesn't have his elite command that that of St Louis' schedule first inning arm Hudson.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS -133

[Fireman334]

Can someone confirm Al Demarco play. Another site has his play on Browns not the Jets???