Thursday 9-19-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-18-2019, 07:53 PM

Marc Lawrence
Sep 19 '19, 8:20 PM in 1d
NFL | Titans vs Jaguars
Play on: UNDER 40 +101

Play - Tennessee-Jacksonville UNDER (Game 301).

Edges - Titans: 2-7 UNDER last nine games at Jacksonville, and 1-3 UNDER last four away games on Thursday … Jaguars: 0-6 UNDER when coming off two losses-exact, and 0-3 UNDER last three division home games … We recommend a 1* play on the UNDER in this game. Thank you and good luck as always.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-18-2019, 07:53 PM

Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Preview and Predictions 09-19-2019

The Tennessee Titans have an explosive running back in Derrick Henry and may try to utilize him more when they visit the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday in an AFC South contest. Henry has rushed for 165 yards and two touchdowns on 34 carries and caught three passes for 87 yards and a 75-yard score in Tennessee's first two games - a 43-13 victory at Cleveland in Week 1 and a 19-17 division loss to Indianapolis on Sunday.

"Derrick's a great player, and you've seen his body of work," Titans tackle Dennis Kelly told reporters. "When he gets rolling, it's hard to bring him down. That's part of our goal (as a line), is being able to get him into his flow and be the player that he can be." Henry rushed for career highs of 238 yards and four touchdowns, including an NFL record-tying 99-yard jaunt, in a 30-9 victory over Jacksonville in their last meeting - also on a Thursday night - but none of that matters after the loss to the Colts. "It's a team thing," Henry told reporters. "So we'll go in and get coached, make our corrections and get ready." Jacksonville nearly stunned the Texans last week but was stopped on a two-point conversion attempt with 36 seconds left in its 13-12 setback at Houston.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network. LINE: Titans -1.5. O/U: 39

ABOUT THE TITANS (1-1): Marcus Mariota has thrown for only 402 yards but has taken care of the ball with four touchdown passes and zero interceptions. Rookie wideout A.J. Brown has recorded a team-high 125 receiving yards but has yet to find the end zone. Defensive end Cameron Wake, who registered 98 sacks in 10 seasons with Miami, has notched a team-high 2.5 in his first two games with the Titans.

ABOUT THE JAGUARS (0-2): Rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew performed admirably against the Texans in his first career start in place of Nick Foles (broken clavicle) with 213 passing yards and a touchdown, as well as 56 yards rushing, but the result was all that mattered. "Not good because we lost,'' Minshew told reporters. "We lost. And that's the moral of the story. Silver lining is we have some things we can build on, some things that if we clean up, we can be a really, really good team. That's very encouraging." It is unclear whether or not cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who is the only player with 200-plus tackles (202) and at least 45 passes defended (45) since he entered the NFL in 2016, will play on Thursday if he's still with the team after requesting a trade following a spat on the sidelines Sunday with coach Doug Marrone.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Jacksonville second-year WR DJ Chark Jr. (team highs of 11 catches and 201 yards) looks to record a touchdown catch for the third straight game.

2. Tennessee S Kevin Byard (one interception this season) has recorded an NFL-most 13 picks since 2017.

3. The Jaguars have won four straight meetings and six of the last seven.

PREDICTION: Titans 20, Jaguars 10

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-18-2019, 07:55 PM

Jimmy Boyd

Sep 19 '19, 3:55 AM in 7h
PGA | Rory McIlroy vs Paul Casey
Play on: Rory McIlroy -105 at jazz

1* GOLF - Free Pick on Rory McIlroy -105
This play is on Rory McIlroy to outperform Paul Casey at this week's BMW PGA Championship. It will be played at Wentworth Golf Club in Surrey, England.
This will be the first action for Rory since he took home the Tour Championship and that record $15 million prize. I look for McIlroy to continue his impressive play at an event he knows well.
McIlroy was runner-up to Francesco Molinari here a year ago and won this event 5 years ago. He's excited about the decision to remove some fairway bunkers, which will let him take advantage of his length a little more off the tee. Take McIlroy!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-18-2019, 07:55 PM

Mark Wilson

Sep 19 '19, 1:00 PM in 16h
PGA | Byeong-Hun An vs Lucas Glover
Play on: Byeong-Hun An -110 at betonline

Free Play on Byeong-Hun An -110

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-19-2019, 07:19 AM

Steve Janus

Sep 19 '19, 12:10 PM in 3h
MLB | Phillies vs Braves
Play on: Braves -133 at YouWager

1* Free Sharp Play on Braves -133

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-19-2019, 07:19 AM

Hunter Price

Sep 19 '19, 12:10 PM in 3h
MLB | Phillies vs Braves
Play on: Phillies +150 at 1BetVegas

1* Free Pick on Phillies +150

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-19-2019, 07:20 AM

Rob Vinciletti

Sep 19 '19, 7:15 PM in 11h
MLB | Cardinals vs Cubs
Play on: Cubs -105 at BMaker

The MLB Comp Play for Thursday is on the Chicago Cubs at 7:15 eastern. The Cubs have won 9 of 10 at home vs the Cardinals. They have Hendricks going and he is 11-0 vs St. Louis and has won his last 3 here at home. The Cards counter with Flaherty who is 0-3 here in Chicago. For a solid database system we play against division road teams off a +140 or higher 2+ runs home dog win where they scored 5 or more runs vs an opponent off a home game. These road teams are a dismal 4-16 since 2004. Look for the Cubs to take the opener. For the MLB Free play. Go with Chicago. Rob V- GC Sports

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-19-2019, 07:22 AM

Betting Recap - Week 2
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 2 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-6
Against the Spread 6-9

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 6-9
Against the Spread 5-10

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 3-11

National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 20-10-1
Against the Spread 13-17-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 14-16-1
Against the Spread 9-21-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 12-18

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Buccaneers (+6.5, ML +250) at Panthers, 20-14
Seahawks (+4, ML +180) at Steelers, 28-26
Colts (+3, ML +155) at Titans, 19-17

The largest favorite to cover
Patriots (-18) at Dolphins, 43-0
Chiefs (-7) at Raiders, 28-10
Cowboys (-6) at Redskins, 31-21

Mining Road Wins

-- The San Francisco 49ers (+1, ML +105) paddled the Cincinnati Bengals by a 41-17 score, posting road victories in consecutive weeks to open the regular season for the first time since 1989 when they won three straight on the road in Weeks 1-3 with QB Joe Montana at the helm. The 49ers are averaging 36.0 points per game (PPG) while allowing 17.0 PPG while covering both games at one-point underdogs. Next up will be their home opener against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 3. The Steelers enter 0-2 SU/ATS, and QB Ben Roethlisberger (elbow) and RB James Conner (knee) might not be available.

Wounded Wings

-- The Philadelphia Eagles saw several star players leave their Sunday Night Football game against the Atlanta Falcons, but they held a late 20-17 lead in the fourth quarter before WR Julio Jones broke free for a 54-yard touchdown on a fourth-down play to secure victory for the home side. The Eagles lost WRs DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor to injuries, as well as QB Carson Wentz for a brief period. TE Dallas Goedert was also lost to an injury in a game which was super costly to the visitors, and they ended up losing and not covering, either.

Miami Mice

-- For the second consecutive weekend the laughingstock of the NFL was the Miami Dolphins. After opening the season with a 59-10 shellacking from the Baltimore Ravens the New England Patriots strolled into town as 18-point favorites. While the Patriots didn't get off to as quick of a start as the Ravens, they made up for lost time in the third quarter, including a pair of pick-sixes. When the dust settled, the Dolphins were on the short end of a 43-0 score, and they have been outscored 92-10 through the first two games. As such, they have opened as 21-point underdogs for their Week 3 road game against the Dallas Cowboys.

Total Recall

-- The under was 11-3 between Thursday's game and Sunday's entire slate, including the games with the top five totals on the board. Kansas City Chiefs-Oakland Raiders (53), Philadelphia Eagles-Atlanta Falcons (53), New Orleans Saints-Los Angeles Rams (52.5), New England Patriots-Miami Dolphins (48.5) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Carolina Panthers (48) each cashed the under, and a couple of the results were never in doubt. In fact, the Saints-Rams shootout never materialized, helped out in part by QB Drew Brees (hand/thumb) leaving the game, had a total of 6-3 at halftime. Hopefully you had a few 'under' tickets in your pocket this week.

Dolphins QB Ryan Fitzpatrick tossed a pair of pick-sixes in their blowout loss, but even his best (or worst) efforts couldn't help the total go 'over', similiar to Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston, who had two pick-sixes in an 'under' result in Week 1 against the 49ers.

-- On the flip side, the lowest total on the board was the Chicago Bears-Denver Broncos (40.5) game. It was expected to be a defensive grind, and it was. The Bears, who totaled just three points in their opening game loss in Week 1, didn't score their first touchdown of the season until the third quarter. Through eight quarters the Bears have generated just 19 total points, including only one touchdown. It's no surprise that the 'under' is 2-0 for Chicago so far. For the Broncos, they fell at Oakland in Week 1 on Monday Night, and they're 0-2 SU/1-1 ATS and the 'under' is also 2-0.

-- The 'under' is 2-0 in the first two primetime games of Week 2, with the Monday Night Football battle between the Cleveland Browns-New York Jets (45) still pending. The 'over' is 1-5 (16.7%) during the early 2019 primetime schedule.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- As mentioned, the Steelers lost Roethlisberger (elbow) and Conner (knee) to injuries in the first half. QB Mason Rudolph and RB Jaylen Samuels were forced to pick up the slack. Big Ben is set for an MRI on Monday.

-- Brees (hand) banged his right throwing hand on a rushing Rams DT Aaron Donald, and he was unable to return. He will remain in Southern California to see a hand specialist. QB Teddy Bridgewater finished up, and would start Week 3 if needed.

-- Cardinals RB David Johnson (wrist) missed a chunk of the game at Baltimore due to a wrist injury, but ultimately was able to return and finish up.

-- Cowboys WR Michael Gallup (knee) left the game in Washington due to a knee issue, and he'll go for an MRI.

-- As mentioned, the Eagles lost Wentz (ribs, concussion) briefly before he was cleared to return. Jackson (groin) left in the second quarter and was unable to return, Jeffery (calf) left early and didn't come back. Goedert (calf) also left in the first half and didn't return, while Agholor (concussion) was out for a couple of drives before passing tests and returning to finish.

Looking Ahead

-- The Titans and Jaguars will do battle on Thursday Night Football in Northast Florida, with the Titans installed as slight road favorites (-2.5). They're 1-4 ATS in the past five games inside the AFC South, and 16-34-3 ATS in the past 53 against losing teams. The Jaguars are 3-9-2 ATS in the past 14 games ovoerall, and 2-5-1 ATS in the past eight divisional games, so something's gotta give. In this series, Tennessee has covered four in a row, while the favorite is 6-2-1 ATS in the past nine meetings. However, the Titans are 2-5-1 ATS in the past eight trips to Duuuuuval.

-- The Jets hit the road trying to cool off the Patriots on Sunday afternoon in Foxboro. The Jets are 2-5 ATS in the past seven road games, and 1-7 ATS in the past eight against AFC East foes while going 0-5-1 ATS in the past six against winning teams. The Patriots have covered seven of the past nine divisional games, while going 40-16-2 ATS in the past 58 at Gillette Stadium, including their 33-3 win against the Steelers in Week 1. In this series, the Jets are 0-3-1 ATS in the past four trips to Foxboro, and 1-4 ATS in the past five meetings overall. The home team is 7-1-1 ATS in the past nine meetings, while the under has cashed in six in a row.

-- The Giants and Buccaneers seem to meet fairly frequently despite the fact they're not in the same division. New York has connected in seven of the past eight on the road against the spread. The Bucs are 3-0-1 ATS in the past four against teams with a losing record, and 5-2-1 ATS in the past eight vs. NFC. In this series, the G-Men are 5-0-1 ATS in the past six trips to the RayJay, while going 6-1-2 ATS in the past nine meetings overall. The under is also 5-2 in the past seven meetings in Tampa.

-- The Bears and Redskins will square off on Monday night, with the Bears installed as four-point favorites to open. The road team is 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings in this series, although the underdog is 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings. The Bears are also 0-5 ATS in the past five meetings with the 'Skins.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-19-2019, 07:22 AM

Close Calls - Week 2
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in Week 2 of the NFL regular season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6½) 20, Carolina Panthers 14 (48): The Thursday night game featured a weather delay and a slow early scoring pace as Joey Slye hit four field goals to give the Panthers a brief 12-10 lead halfway through the third quarter. Tampa Bay answered with a 75-yard touchdown drive as the road underdog took a 17-12 lead heading into the fourth quarter on a Peyton Barber score. After a Carolina fumble and a missed Tampa Bay field goal, Barber would be the victim of a safety early in the fourth as the Panthers climbed within three points to keep overtime in the range of possibility. Getting good field position after the defensive score the Panthers were stopped on 4th-and-short just past midfield but a pair of punts followed before the Buccaneers extended the lead to six points. Cam Newton and the Panthers got the ball back with just over two minutes remaining needing a touchdown drive and they eventually reached the Tampa Bay 11-yard-line with a new set of downs. Short gains and a penalty left the Panthers facing 4th-and-1 from the 2-yard-line and a direct snap to Christian McCaffrey was sniffed out as the Buccaneers were the NFC South squad to avoid the 0-2 start.

Indianapolis Colts (+3) 19, Tennessee Titans 17 (43½): The Colts had two first half touchdowns but led only 13-7 with another missed PAT from Adam Vinatieri. The Titans scored on a short field after the break to lead 14-13 and then after a Jacoby Brissett fumble, Tennessee added a field goal despite only picking up 14 yards. The Titans forced a punt and had the momentum to put the game away after pass interference call converted a big 3rd down. A few plays later Marcus Mariota was sacked on the subsequent 3rd down and the Titans settled for a kick to go up seven, only this time Cairo Santos missed. The Colts didn’t take advantage on its next possession but getting the ball back with just under seven minutes remaining the Colts were able to hit a big play with a 55-yard-run and got the eventual touchdown to take the lead. Vinatieri would again miss the PAT however to leave the lead in jeopardy. The Titans had an opportunity crossing midfield in the final minute but ultimately couldn’t get the job done as the Colts played a second-straight down-to-the-wire game, this time winning.

Detroit Lions (+1) 13, Los Angeles Chargers 10 (47): The Lions missed a field goal six minutes before halftime and allowed the Chargers to add three before the break to trail 10-6. Matthew Stafford had an interception on the first drive of the second half but the Lions were bailed out with the defense forcing a fumble of Austin Ekeler on 1st-and-goal. More mistakes followed as the Chargers missed two field goals surrounding another Stafford interception before Detroit broke through in the fourth quarter with a big play to Kenny Golladay, leading 13-10. The Chargers reached the red zone late in the fourth quarter but went backwards and Philip Rivers wound up intercepted on 3rd-and-19 before the Chargers had a chance to struggle with the decision to try for the tying field goal from punter Ty Long who was serving as the kicker with Michael Badgley injured.

Dallas Cowboys (-6) 31, Washington Redskins 21 (46): After a scoreless first quarter Washington took a 7-0 lead in the second quarter that held until Dallas hit a 51-yard touchdown with about six minutes remaining. Dallas also managed to find the end zone just before halftime to suddenly take a 14-7 lead. The Cowboys kept the momentum with another touchdown out of the break to lead 21-7 but Washington answered to sit a point short of the underdog number down 21-14. Dallas had a touchdown brought back on a penalty and Washington’s defense was able to hold for a field goal, sitting just one touchdown away from covering the number into the fourth quarter. A promising drive stalled just past midfield and with still more than 11 minutes on the clock Washington went for it on 4th-and-3 and came up empty. Dallas put the game away with another touchdown on the short field. Washington would climb back within 10 with a touchdown just ahead of the two-minute warning to clear the ‘over’ but they couldn’t get a stop to get the ball back.

Houston Texans (-7) 13, Jacksonville Jaguars 12 (43½): Houston led just 6-3 through three quarters after a scoreless third quarter but the first touchdown of the game came from Deshaun Watson with just over 11 minutes remaining. That touchdown put the Texans past the favorite spread for the first time in the game. Gardner Minshew led the Jaguars down the field for a field goal to trim the margin to seven, with a spread that closed right at +7 from as high as +9½. The Jaguars held on defense to get the ball back and Jacksonville converted two fourth downs on the way to the red zone. With 30 seconds left Minshew connected with DJ Clark and down by one the Jaguars opted to go for the win but came up short on a Leonard Fournette rush attempt.

Green Bay Packers (-3) 21, Minnesota Vikings 16 (43): After a win in Week 1 but limited offensive production for the Packers in Matt Lafleur’s debut, Green Bay came out firing in the home opener. The Packers scored just over two minutes into the game and eventually went up 21-0 early in the second quarter. Dalvin Cook broke a 75-yard run to break the momentum for the Packers and after missing an early field goal Dan Bailey added three before halftime to put the Vikings back in the game down 21-10 after the Packers opted not to kick on 4th-and-1 from the Minnesota 25. The Vikings thought they added seven on that drive with a three-yard score to Stefon Diggs questionably overturned via replay to call offensive pass interference under the new challengeable rules. Green Bay would fumble on its first possession of the second half and the Vikings added a short field touchdown to climb within five, with Bailey’s PAT blocked. Five straight punts followed as neither offense could get anything going and ‘over’ backers moaned after supposedly sitting pretty with the hot scoring start. The Vikings were poised to take the lead with about five minutes remaining reaching the Green Bay 8-yard-line with a new set of downs but Kirk Cousins made an ill-advised throw to the corner of the end zone that was intercepted on 1st down. Green Bay was able to run out most of the remaining clock to hold on despite the offense disappearing, while the ‘under’ also held on.

Chicago Bears (-3) 16, Denver Broncos 14 (40½): The spread on this game fluctuated a lot after quickly rising from even to the Bears as a slight favorite. A common number was -2 for the Bears much of the weekend but on Sunday afternoon the Bears hit -2½ and eventually -3. Chicago didn’t impress early in the game but managed a 13-3 edge through three quarter to sit comfortably ahead of the number. In the fourth the Broncos completed a lengthy drive to add three points and were poised to tie the game with 1st-and-goal from the 4-yard-line. Joe Flacco eventually was intercepted but pinned deep Chicago punted a few plays later to give the Broncos another shot. This time Flacco delivered including two 4th down conversions and after the touchdown with 31 seconds left Flacco delivered what looked like the game-winning two-point conversion in a huge bold play from Vic Fangio against his old team. It was not to be as a borderline 1st down roughing the passer call gave the Bears a big boost and Mitchell Trubisky struck for 25 yards on 4th-and-15 in the final seconds. Chicago still had a timeout and new kicker Eddy Pineiro became a hero hitting from 53 yards.

Atlanta Falcons (+1) 24, Philadelphia Eagles 20 (53½): The Falcons had a 17-6 edge in the third quarter of this game but Matt Ryan had an interception deep in his own territory to get the Eagles back in the game. Philadelphia appeared to add the two-point conversion as well but Carson Wentz was ruled down just short of the line as Atlanta held a five-point lead. Ryan would be intercepted in the end zone on the next possession when a field goal could have put the margin to eight points. After swapping punts Philadelphia delivered a tremendous 13-play drive to burn well over eight minutes to take the lead. Up by one the two-point conversion try loomed large on a spread that was commonly +2 before sliding to +1 and the Eagles hit Zach Ertz to lead by three. Atlanta stalled near midfield facing 4th-and-3 at its own 46 when a short pass to Julio Jones to get past the sticks turned into a 54-yard score. Up four Atlanta’s defense still had a lot of work ahead with the Eagles converting an epic 4th-and-14 for 43 yards and getting a free timeout as an Atlanta player was injured on the play. With still a minute to go, an Eagles score seemed inevitable but the Eagles picked up just two yards in the next three plays and faced 4th-and-8. Wentz hit Ertz again incredibly close to the line but he was ruled just short with that spot holding on review as Atlanta escaped with the win.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-19-2019, 07:23 AM

Hot & Not Report - Week 3
Matt Blunt

After last week's piece shifted the focus to the collegiate game, it's back to discussing NFL action this week now that we've got essentially two full weeks under our belt. The Browns and Jets still have to do battle tonight, and some could say that Jets QB Sam Darnold and his mono diagnosis kicked off a brutal week for QB injuries. ON Sunday we saw Saints QB Drew Brees get knocked out of the game with a thumb injury that will have him on the shelf for multiple weeks, and Pittsburgh's QB Ben Roethlisberger is now lost for the year with elbow concerns.

With Andrew Luck's abrupt retirement at the end of August, it's been an ever-changing landscape at the QB position so far in the NFL, and chances are it won't end there. The Giants and Dolphins have legitimate questions to ask themselves about who will be their starter for the bulk of the season, and a team like Washington is starting to inch closer to that boat as well.

QB issues aside, Week 3 is always an interesting one as we've now come and gone through Opening Week and Overreaction Week in the betting market, and more data points are out there to use as support. Team identities are starting to get firmer – if their QB has stayed healthy – and for some, it's about potentially preventing their season from going off the rails after a rough start.

It's that notion that I've isolated for this week, as Week 3 brings some of their own interesting betting opportunities for NFL teams that have been money burners (0-2 ATS) or money earners (2-0 ATS) so far. The market has seen (or been burnt) by these teams inability to cash betting tickets, and that in itself can create market disparities in terms of the perception and reality of how good a certain team may actually be.

So it's “perfect” ATS teams in the NFL that are travelling in Week 3 that have become the focus this week. While two of the winless squads – New Orleans and Pittsburgh – have new QB's starting in Week 3 and may be taken much more lightly or even omitted from this following group, the changes at QB are likely to create an even bigger gap in terms of the perception of those squads.

But here are the situations to keep in mind as you go through the week breaking down the board:

Who's Hot

Back the Money Burners on the road
NFL teams that are 0-2 ATS and are playing on the road in Week 3 are 9-3 ATS the past three seasons

This trend seems to be a strong one over the past three years and it's done well in each individual year as well, as the record sits at 7-2 ATS the past two years, and it was 4-1 ATS in 2018. On the surface, a trend like this does make some sense in the idea that 0-2 ATS squads can be a little undervalued after being money burners (for a variety of reasons) through two weeks. Bettors maybe haven't like what they've seen from these squads, have been burned by them for a big wager, last leg of a parlay etc, and or just don't believe they are a capable or competitive team that season. This year we've got six (potentially seven) different teams fitting this role too.

The list of teams that are 0-2 ATS and on the road in Week 3 are Carolina, Chicago, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Miami, the New York Giants and possibly the New York Jets should they fail against the number on MNF. All of those squads do fit different aspects of the reasons behind having yet to cover a spread, and having already discussed the situations that face New Orleans and Pittsburgh this week, I won't go more in-depth on them. But chances are both will be a little undervalued – especially compared to what they could have been with Brees and Roethlisberger under center – and may be worth a look once point spreads are established.

Miami and the Giants definitely fit the bill of being teams that aren't likely to be all that competitive this year, as they've shown nothing to have bettors believe putting their hard earned money down on them is worth the risk. The Giants are currently catching +6.5 points nearly everywhere as they head down to Tampa Bay to face a well-rested Bucs team, while Miami's going to Dallas and currently catching three TD's. I can't imagine either of those sides being all that popular as the week goes on, but points are points and they might actually be catching a few more then they should be given the overall perception of the organizations. Week 3 has proven in the past that some level of professional pride tends to kick in for these slumping squads, and I would venture a guess that at least one of the Giants or Miami ends up cashing an ATS ticket this week.

The remaining two teams that are for sure on this list are Chicago and Carolina, and each are road chalk in Washington and Arizona respectively. Laying points with these “money burners” may look tough to do for some, but it again speaks to the idea that they may actually be a little undervalued right now because of that 0-2 ATS start. The Bears and Panthers are both hovering around laying a FG against their respective opponents, and you can't help but wonder if they were 1-1 ATS already, would these spreads be a point or two higher. That's a question you should keep in mind throughout the week, as if Arizona and Washington find themselves turning into 'public home dogs', it might be best to expect the Panthers and Bears to get into that ATS winner's circle.

Who's Not

Fade the Money Earners
2-0 ATS teams that are on the road in Week 3 are 3-9 ATS the past three seasons

This run is quite the opposite idea of things when you sit down and think about it, as these perfect ATS teams that go out on the road – sometimes for the first time that year – tend to be thought too highly of in terms of either the number that exists out there and/or the perception in terms of generating a strong majority of support from the market. It's been a great two opening weeks for these teams and bettors – the majority of whom love to ride streaks – have no problem backing the hot hand because that's what's worked so far.

So whether or not these lines are actually inflated or not to the side of these perfect ATS road teams can be debated, but just because something has worked twice so far, doesn't mean it will continue to work going forward. That's such a reactive way to handicap in my opinion and being proactive - whether it's getting action down early in the week, finding more predictive numbers/stats to base opinions on etc – will tend to bring you more success.

This year, we've only got one team that fits that role, and it's the LA Rams on SNF as they travel to Cleveland to face the Browns. Depending on how Cleveland performs tonight will have plenty to do with the number that comes out – especially if Cleveland stinks up the joint again and/or loses to a Jets team without their starting QB.

But for a market who was all about backing the Saints this past week with their revenge narrative against the Rams, LA's performance in that game – even with Brees getting hurt – had to increase their stock in the eyes of many, especially those who had the Saints this weekend, and should the Browns lose tonight on MNF, without question an early flurry of Rams money is likely to flood in. That scenario would set up a situation where we'd have a 2-0 ATS Rams team visiting an 0-2 ATS Browns team, and 0-2 ATS teams at home in Week 3 are 5-3 ATS the past two seasons.

It may be then that we see all this Browns love we've seen and heard about in the market for months finally come to fruition, but regardless of what happens on MNF tonight, I'd be hesitant to pull the trigger on the defending NFC Champions next week.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-19-2019, 07:23 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 3

Thursday, September 19

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TENNESSEE (1 - 1) at JACKSONVILLE (0 - 2) - 9/19/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 118-154 ATS (-51.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 4-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 4-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-19-2019, 07:23 AM

NFL

Week 3

Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, September 19

Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is 3-9-2 ATS in its last 14 games
Jacksonville is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games
Jacksonville is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Jacksonville is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games at home
Jacksonville is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Tennessee
Jacksonville is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 7 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Jacksonville's last 9 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Tennessee is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 8 games
Tennessee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 7 games when playing Jacksonville
Tennessee is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tennessee's last 9 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-19-2019, 07:24 AM

301TENNESSEE -302 JACKSONVILLE
JACKSONVILLE is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) in home games after allowing 150 or less passing yards in their last game since 1992.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-19-2019, 07:24 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 3

Thursday, September 19

Tennessee @ Jacksonville

Game 301-302
September 19, 2019 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
132.235
Jacksonville
133.900
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 1 1/2
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 1 1/2
39 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(+1 1/2); Under

Thursday 9-19-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Thursday 9-19-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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