Thursday 9-19-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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NFL

Week 3

Titans (1-1) @ Jaguars (0-2)— Jacksonville lost its first two games; star CB Ramsey wants to be traded. QB Minshew was 23-33/178 in his first NFL start. Jaguars are 8-6 in last 14 games as a home underdog; they don’t have a takeaway yet (-3 in TO’s), scored only 21 points in five trips to red zone. Titans converted only 3-20 third down plays; they’re +5 in turnovers in two games. Tennessee won last four series games, winning 37-16/9-6 in last two visits here; they waxed Jaguars 9-6/30-9 in LY’s meetings. Last eight years, Titans are 5-18-1 ATS in AFC South road games; since ’14, Titans are 12-20-2 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points- they’re 3-6-1 in last 10 games as a road favorite.

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Tech Trends - Week 3
September 17, 2019
By Bruce Marshall

THURSDAY, SEPT. 19

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
TENNESSEE at JACKSONVILLE (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Titans have won and covered last four meetings, and six of last seven. Last three in series “under” as well.
Tech Edge: Titans and slight to “under,” based on series trends.

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NFL Betting Trends through Week 2:

Road Teams: 21-10-1 ATS
Home Teams: 10-21-1 ATS

Favorites: 13-18-1 ATS
Underdogs: 18-13-1 ATS

Home Faves: 5-13-1 ATS
Home Dogs: 5-8 ATS

Road Faves: 8-5 ATS
Road Dogs: 13-5-1 ATS

Over/Under: 12-20

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TNF - Titans at Jaguars
Kevin Rogers

LAST WEEK

One week after the Titans (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) blew out the Browns to open the season, Tennessee dropped its first game of 2019 in a 19-17 setback to Indianapolis. The Titans were flipped from a 5 ½-point road underdog at Cleveland to a three-point home favorite against the Colts. Tennessee failed to start 2-0 for the 11th straight season, while losing in Week 2 for the first time since 2015.

The Titans have allowed only 32 points in two games, which ranks sixth in the NFL, while yielding 288 yards to the Colts. However, Tennessee trailed at halftime, 13-7 before scoring 10 consecutive points to take a 17-13 advantage heading into the fourth quarter. Jacoby Brissett hit T.Y. Hilton on a four-yard touchdown strike to put the Colts ahead with under five minutes remaining to improve to 14-2 in the last 16 matchups with the Titans.

Marcus Mariota threw for 248 yards and three touchdowns in the season-opening blowout of the Browns, but racked up only 154 yards against Indianapolis. Derrick Henry eclipsed the 80-yard mark for the second consecutive week and reached the end zone for the second time in 2019, but not one Tennessee receiver compiled more than 39 yards receiving.

The Jaguars (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS) faced their second opponent last week that is coming off a division title in 2018, but had an excellent opportunity to win. After trailing 13-3 in the fourth quarter at Houston, Jacksonville kicked a field goal then got within one point on rookie Gardner Minshew’s touchdown pass to D.J. Chark, Jr. in the final minute. The Jaguars elected to go for the two-point conversion and the win, but running back Leonard Fournette was stuffed at the goal-line and Jacksonville lost, 13-12.

Jacksonville managed the cover as 7 ½-point underdogs, but the offense didn’t bust the 300-yard mark, while Minshew threw for 213 yards in his first professional start in place of the injured Nick Foles. Minshew actually rushed for more yards (56) than Fournette (47) on less attempts, while the Jaguars’ defense allowed one touchdown after yielding 40 points to Kansas City in Week 1.

The big drama surrounding the Jaguars has been the recent trade demand of Pro-Bowl cornerback Jalen Ramsey. The former Florida State standout wants out of Jacksonville in his fourth season with the Jaguars following a recent dustup with head coach Doug Marrone during the Houston loss. Jacksonville is off to an 0-2 start for the fifth time in eight seasons, but no team in the AFC South owns a 2-0 record.

AFC SOUTH BREAKDOWN

Only two weeks into the season and three of the four teams in the division have posted 1-1 records. The Colts, Titans, and Texans are 1-1, while the Jaguars are 0-2. However, Jacksonville is the only team in this group to play two playoff teams from last season in its first two games. The schedule eases up the next six weeks as the Jaguars will face Denver and Carolina on the road (both winless through two weeks), host New Orleans without Drew Brees, travel to Cincinnati, and welcome in the Jets in Week 8 before three straight divisional matchups.

Tennessee plays seven straight non-division opponents after Thursday as the Titans head to Atlanta in Week 4 before hosting Buffalo in Week 5. The Titans face a pair of AFC West foes in Week 6 (Denver) and Week 7 (L.A. Chargers) before taking on the Buccaneers at home in Week 8 and at Carolina in Week 9.

HOME/ROAD SPLITS

The Titans were favored on the road three times in 2018, as Tennessee put together a 1-2 SU/ATS record in those games. Tennessee lost at Miami and Buffalo, but the Titans cruised past the Giants in Week 15 with a 17-0 shutout of 2 ½-point favorites.

Since upsetting New England in Week 2 last season, the Jaguars own a 2-6 record in their last eight home contests (which includes a 24-18 defeat in London to the Eagles), while Jacksonville is 3-5-2 ATS in its last 10 opportunities in the underdog role.

SERIES HISTORY

Tennessee swept Jacksonville last season to extend its winning streak in the series to four games since 2017. The Titans limited the Jaguars to a total of 15 points in the two victories, starting with a 9-6 triumph as 10-point underdogs at TIAA Bank Field in Week 3. Neither team reached the end zone as Ryan Succop knocked down three field goals in the victory for Tennessee, while Mariota and Henry combined for 108 yards rushing.

The Titans cruised to a 30-9 blowout of the Jaguars at Nissan Stadium in December to easily cash as 5 ½-point favorites. Henry had his breakout game as a pro as the Heisman Trophy winner rushed for 238 yards and four touchdowns, which included a 99-yard scamper in the second quarter. Jacksonville last beat Tennessee, 38-17 in Week 16 of the 2016 season as four-point home underdogs.

TOTAL TALK

Chris David, a weekly guest on the Bet and Collect Podcast, offered up his total notes for this particular matchup and he touches on the early trend that we’ve seen in primetime spots this season.

He explained, “Bettors playing the ‘under’ blindly in the night games have watched their bankroll grow with the low side going 6-1 through seven games. And the lone ‘over’ ticket in the Saints-Texans matchup was helped with 41 points in the second-half and 13 of those came in the final minute.”

For savvy bettors keeping track of halftime wagers, the ‘under’ has gone 7-0 in the night games. In the second-half of those same contests, we’ve seen more points but the ‘under’ still holds a 4-3 mark.

Even though this total is sitting in the high thirties, David noted that this series has leaned to the ‘over’ recently and an offensive outburst is possible.

“The high side has cashed in five of the last seven meetings in this series, which includes a split last season,” David noted. “Digging deeper, I looked at Mariota’s numbers versus the Jaguars in his career and he owns a 6-2 record in games that he’s started or played in. What’s eye-opening about those eight games is that every season, Mariota and the Titans have been hit or miss offensively. The team posted 30 and 9 in 2018 versus the Jaguars, 37 and 15 in 2017 before scoring 36 and 17 in 2016."

"Going back to his rookie year, the Titans scores 13 and 42. What offense shows up this week is obviously uncertain but this angle should be kept in your betting memory bank when the pair meet later in the season.”

Jacksonville will meet Tennessee in Week 12 at Nissan Stadium from Nashville.

Another notable trend to watch for Thursday is that Tennessee has watched the ‘over’ cash in seven straight night games going back to the 2016 season while Jacksonville is on a 3-0 ‘over’ run in primetime spots during the same span.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

NFL expert Joe Nelson checks in this week on this matchup as he looks how Jacksonville can exploit Tennessee’s defense, “As expected, Tennessee has good defensive numbers allowing 5.0 yards per play (9th in the NFL), but surprisingly the Titans have struggled against the run by giving up 5.0 yards per rush to offset very strong pass defense numbers. Jacksonville’s defense has been vulnerable against the pass through two weeks, allowing 8.2 yards per attempt (25th in the NFL) while performing better against the run. Having to play Kansas City in Week 1 certainly weighs on the numbers for the Jaguars who could still project as one of the better defensive teams in the AFC.”

From Jacksonville’s standpoint with Minshew making his second start, Nelson points out his numbers haven’t been bad, but the Jags need to score more, “Minshew has been more than adequate with nearly 78 percent completions and 8.4 yards per attempt and just one interception while also offering some mobility but ultimately the Jaguars have only scored 38 points in two games. Last season, six of the team’s 11 losses came by six or fewer points and the Jaguars had two SU wins vs. playoff teams at home.”

FIRST HALF/SECOND HALF BETS

After the Chiefs covered both the first and second halves in the season opener, the Jaguars rebounded by covering each half in the Texans’ loss. The Titans have covered in three of four halves this season with first and second half wins at Cleveland, while cashing in the second half against Indianapolis last Sunday.

Tennessee has hit the ‘under’ in three of four halves, with the lone ‘over’ cashing in the second half of the Cleveland game. Jacksonville saw the ‘over’ cash in each half of the Kansas City loss, but the ‘under’ connected in both halves of the Houston defeat.

LINE MOVEMENT

When CG Technologies released their weekly odds in June for every game in the NFL season (for the exception of Week 17), the Jaguars were listed as a three-point favorite against the Titans. Fast-forward to now and Tennessee is listed as a 1 ½-point favorite at CG Technologies. The total has dipped to 39, as the ‘under’ has cashed in six of seven primetime games this season.

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NCAAF
Long Sheet

Thursday, September 19

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (1 - 2) at TULANE (2 - 1) - 9/19/2019, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TULANE is 1-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
TULANE is 1-1 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NCAAF

Week 4

Trend Report

Thursday, September 19

Houston @ Tulane
Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games on the road
Houston is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games when playing Tulane
Tulane
Tulane is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tulane's last 6 games when playing at home against Houston

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NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 4


Thursday, September 19

Houston @ Tulane

Game 303-304
September 19, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
81.114
Tulane
89.945
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tulane
by 9
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tulane
by 5
56
Dunkel Pick:
Tulane
(-5); Under

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Betting Recap - Week 3
Joe Williams

College Football Week 3 Results

WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 56-12
Against the Spread 39-28-1

WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 44-24
Against the Spread 32-35-1

WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 32-36

YEAR TO DATE Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 203-28
Against the Spread 116-109-6

YEAR TO DATE Home-Away
Straight Up 172-55
Against the Spread 106-115-6

YEAR TO DATE Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 109-121-3

The largest underdogs to win straight up
The Citadel (+27.5, ML +1500) at Georgia Tech, 27-24 (OT)
Kansas (+20.5, ML +800) at Boston College, 48-24
Arizona State (+15.5, ML +550) at Michigan State, 10-7
Eastern Michigan (+7.5, ML +230) at Illinois, 34-31
Kansas State (+7, ML +220) at Mississippi State, 31-24
West Virginia (+7, ML +220) vs. N.C. State, 44-27

The largest favorites to cover
Louisiana-Lafayette (-47) vs. Texas Southern, 77-6
Texas A&M (-45.5) vs. Lamar, 62-3
Miami-Florida (-41) vs. Bethune-Cookman, 63-0
Missouri (-35) vs. SE Missouri State, 50-0
Notre Dame (-34.5) vs. New Mexico, 66-14
Georgia (-33) vs. Arkansas State, 55-0

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (AAC)

-- Cincinnati bounced back from a shellacking from Ohio State last week, topping Miami-Ohio for the cover as 17-point favorites in their rivalry game. 'Under' bettors lucked out a bit (see below in bad beats). The Bearcats are 2-0 SU/ATS at home, while the 'under' has connected in all three of their outings. ... Temple pulled the mild upset over Maryland, 20-17, cashing +180 on the moneyline. UMD opened as high as an eight-point favorite, falling to 5.5 by gametime. The Owls are now 2-0 SU/ATS through two outings with a trip to Buffalo on deck next week. ... Houston fell to Washington State in NRG Stadium on Friday night in a neutral-site battle, 31-24. It was expected to be a high-scoring game with a line of 74, but a scoreless first quarter helped the total go well under. Houston is 0-2 SU vs. Power 5 teams so far, but 2-0 ATS. The 'under' is 2-0-1 for the Cougars in three games overall. ... Navy roughed up East Carolina in the conference opener for both. The Middies won 42-10, easily covering for the second time in as many games as they improved to 2-0 SU/ATS with the 'under' 2-0.

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE (ACC)

-- Wake Forest outlasted North Carolina 24-18 on Friday night in what was actually not a league game despite both being ACC members. Due to the cross-division scheduling in the ACC, these teams were scheduled to meet once every few years, and the schools wanted to ignite the rivalry on a more regular basis. Wake is now 3-0 SU, but this was their first cover (1-1-1 ATS). ... Georgia Tech wasn't as fortunate, falling to FCS The Citadel in overtime in Atlanta, 27-24. The Bulldogs weren't exactly a powerhouse in the FCS, well out of the Top 25 rankings, and receiving just three votes in the past FCS poll. Embarrassing loss for the Ramblin' Wreck. ... Virginia Tech nearly met the same fate, edging Furman 24-17. To be fair, the Paladins were at least ranked No. 13 in the FCS rankings this past week. That's three games and three non-covers for the Hokies, and the 'under' has hit in each of their two home outings. ... Virginia moved to 3-0 SU with a comeback win against Florida State, 31-24. The Seminoles took the 24-17 lead 11:42 to go, but the Hoos rallied with a touchdown at 6:02. However, they misfired on the extra point and were still down 24-23. With 2:34 to go, UVA scored a touchdown with a two-point conversion, causing the line to push at most shops. The two-point conversion also pushed the total 'over' (54).

BIG TEN

-- Ohio State went on the road for the first time this season and throttled Indiana, 51-10. The Buckeyes have scored at least 42 points in each of their three game, but this was their first 'over' result - barely. The game closed at 60.5 at most shops. ... Illinois suffered its first setback of the season against visiting Eastern Michigan, 34-31. It was also the first 'over' result after two unders for the Illini. Illinois tied the game 31-31 with 1:44 to push the total over, but EMU booted a 24-yard field goal with no time left to win it outright. ... Penn State was favored by 17 points against rival Pittsburgh, and if that seemed rather high it's because it was. The Nittany Lions won their rivalry game by a 17-10 count as the 'under' comfortably cashed. It was a departure from the first two games when the Lions posted 79 and 45 against Idaho and Buffalo. It was also PSU's first non-cover in three tries. ... Minnesota avoided the upset bug against Georgia Southern, hanging 35-32. The Golden Gophers are 3-0 SU, but 0-2-1 ATS with a pair of 'over' results in the past two games.

BIG 12

-- Kansas opened the week with a win at Boston College, snapping a 48-game road losing streak against Power 5 teams. Les Miles has the Jayhawks sitting at 2-1 SU, but this was their first win over an FBS team and it was the first cover for Kansas in three games. ... Kansas State also took care of business on the road against a Power 5 team, edging Mississippi State, 31-24. The Wildcats have fired out of the box at 3-0 SU/ATS. ... West Virginia upended N.C. State in Morgantown by a 44-27 count. The matchup in 2018 was wiped out in Raleigh by Hurricane Florence, and the Wolfpack likely wish a storm struck before this one, too. The Mountaineers earned their first win against an FBS team, their first cover and first 'over' in three tries. ... Oklahoma State had their hands full at Tulsa, but they eventually pulled away 40-21. The Cowboys actually trailed 21-20 at half. The Golden Hurricane were blanked in the second half helping the 'under' (64) connected. ... Oklahoma routed UCLA behind QB Jalen Hurts, who ran for 99 yards on the team's first drive. The Sooner ended up with the 48-14 win, improving to 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS ahead of their conference opener with Texas Tech. ... Speaking of the Red Raiders, they were topped 28-14 at Arizona, 28-14. The 'under' has cashed in three straight for the Red Raiders. ... Texas dropped Rice 48-13 in a game featuring some craziness at the end to affect the line and total (see below).

CONFERENCE USA

-- Florida Atlantic stepped out of conference at Ball State for the 41-31 road victory. They're 2-0 SU/ATS on the road so far this season, averaging 31.0 PPG while allowing 38.0 PPG. The total is 1-1-1 with FAU so far through three games. ... Western Kentucky put a late scare into Louisville side bettors, but the Cards held on for the cover at both 10 and 10.5, depending on when you bet. The Cards had a 31-7 lead at half, and appeared well on the way to an easy cover, but Western fought back to close to 17 with 12:50 to go, but that was the last score of the day. ... North Texas also gave it a nice run at California, but came up short in a 23-17 loss. The Mean Green fell behind 20-0, much to the dismay of UNT side bettors and 'under' (50.5) bettors, but North Texas held Cal to just three points in the final three quarters for the cover and under. It was UNT's first cover in three games, and their first under result.

MID-AMERICAN (MAC)

-- Central Michigan bounced back from a 61-point drumming at Wisconsin last week, topping Akron 45-24 in the MAC opener for both sides. The 'over' has connected in all three games for the Chippewas so far this season. The over has hit in each of the past two for the Zips, too. Akron slipped to 0-3 SU/ATS overall. ...

MOUNTAIN WEST

-- Air Force scored one for the Mountain West, following in the footsteps of Boise State earlier this season. The Falcons picked up a road win against a Power 5 team, besting Colorado in overtime, 30-23. Despite the extra session, 'over' (58.5) bettors were still left with a losing ticket. The Falcons are 2-0 SU/Ats heading into their MWC opener against the aforementioned Broncos on the Smurf Turf next Friday. ... New Mexico was unable to pull the stunner in South Bend, as they were blasted by Notre Dame, 66-14. The Lobos have hit the 'over' in each of their two outings, allowing 97 points in two games. ... Colorado State was also unable to join the group, as they were slapped down at Arkansas by a 55-34 count. This game was actually tied 34-34, but the Rams were blanked 21-0 in the final quarter by Chad Morris' group.

PAC-12

-- Oregon State comfortably passed FCS Cal Poly by a 45-7 score, picking up their second straight cover and 'under' result. ... USC was tripped up in overtime by a 30-27 score at Brigham Young, as the Cougars won in overtime for the second consecutive weekend. Freshman QB Kedon Slovis did all right in his first collegiate road outing, but a tipped pass in OT doomed him. ... Another Pac-12 team took it on the chin in a non-conference road outing, as Stanford was unable to slow UCF. The Knights came away with the 45-27 victory, and over (58.5) bettors were aided by a 28-point first quarter by the Knights, and 35 total points after 15 minutes. ... Arizona State scored a touchdown with :50 left in East Lansing, pulling the 10-7 upset at Michigan State. It's the second consecutive season the Sun Devils topped the Spartans by three points, as they upended Sparty in Tempe by a 16-13 count on Sept. 8, 2018. The 'under' has cashed in three in a row for AZ State. MSU appeared to have the game-tying field goal to force OT, but they were whistled for 12 men on the field. The next field, five yards back, was no good. ... Utah belted FCS Idaho State by a 31-0 score, failing to cover the 37.5-number. The Utes moved to 3-0 SU, but they're just 1-2 ATS with the 'under' 2-1.

SOUTHEASTERN (SEC)

-- Tennessee finally found someone they could beat - FCS Chattanooga. The Mocs were the sacrificial lamb on Saturday, falling 45-0 to the Volts, who win for the first time in 2019. It was their first cover of the season, too, and first 'under' result thanks to the defensive effort. ... Georgia wasn't caught looking ahead to Notre Dame, spanking a pretty good Arkansas State team by a 55-0 mark. The UGA offense has piled up 49.3 PPG through three outings, and they're allowed just 7.7 PPG. ... Alabama was able to ease past South Carolina, 47-23. The Gamecocks hung with the Tide through one quarter, trailing 14-10, but the Tide posted at least 10 points in every quarter and the Cocks could not come close to matching that production. ... Mississippi had their hands full with FCS Southeastern Louisiana, but they were able to get the 40-29 win as the 'over' (53) comfortably cashed. The Rebels led just 34-29 after three quarters.

SUN BELT

-- Georgia State moved to 2-0 SU and 1-0-1 ATS with a narrow 48-42 win over FCS Furman, a Top 10 team in the FCS rankings. Their unblemished record will be put to the test again next week at Western Michigan of the MAC. ... Georgia Southern picked up a 26-18 win over FCS Maine, bouncing back from a thrashing at the hands of LSU last week. The Eagles are 0-2 ATS so far, though. ... Arkansas State were very rude guests at UNLV, winning 43-17 to bounce back from a loss to SMU last week. The Red Wolves offense is clicking, averaging 36.5 PPG while allowed 27.0 PPG. Next up is a trip to Georgia. Ouch. ... Coastal Carolina dumped FCS Norfolk State by a 46-7 score, moving to 2-1 SU/ATS. The defense has allowed just 7.0 PPG in the past two games, both covers.

Bad Beats

-- In that Miami (Ohio)-Cincinnati game, bettors holding over tickets probably thought they were on easy street after a 24-point third quarter gave the game 48 total points on the board through 45 minutes. That's how the game ended after a scoreless final 15.

-- The same situation happened in another game featuring a MAC club. Western Michigan led Georgia State 57-10 after three quarters with a total of 69.5 on the board. After a scoreless fourth quarter, over bettors were left shaking their heads.

-- Alabama was hammering South Carolina by a 47-16 count with a 1-yard touchdown run from RB Mac Jones with 2:04 to go. However, the Gamecocks kept playing to the end, scoring a touchdown with :11 left on a QB Ryan Hilinski touchdown pass, crushing those who laid the 26 1/2. To be fair, the Tide were covering for a total of just 1:53. South Carolina's drive was aided by a targeting call, too, which plenty in the Twitterverse were unhappy about.

-- In the Texas-Rice game, the Longhorns were favored by 32 with a total of 57. With 7:50 remaining in the game, Texas took a 38-6 lead. The Longhorns kicked a field goal with 3:29 to take a 41-6 lead. With 1:07 to go, Rice appeared to secure the backdoor cover, 41-13. However, the Longhorns ripped off a 98-yard kickoff return for touchdown to not only cover, 48-13, but flip the total from under to over. Ouch.

-- Clemson was leading 34-6 in the final minute at Syracuse. They emptied the bench and a true freshman took it to the house to flip a push at most shops into a cover for the Tigers. You'll definitely see this one on SVP.

-- Moneyline bettors were feeling it in Lexington, as Kentucky, a 10-point 'dog, led 21-10 after three quarters with Florida down to a backup QB after losing Feleipe Franks to a leg injury. Backup Kyle Trask helped the Gators to a go-ahead touchdown with 4:11 to go, making it 22-21. Kentucky misfired on a field goal, and Josh Hammond rubbed salt in the wound with a 78-yard touchdown run to make it 29-21. The TD run with :33 left flipped the under to an over result.

-- Under (63) bettors were feeling good with Texas A&M leading FCS Lamar 55-3 with under two to go. However, the Aggies ripped off a 13-yard touchdown with 1:51 to go, flipping the total to an over result, 62-3.

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4th Quarter Covers - Week 3
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the third big weekend of the college football season. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.

Wake Forest (-3) 24, North Carolina 18: The Demon Deacons led 21-0 just a few minutes into the second quarter as little went right for the Tar Heels. North Carolina did get a 4th-and-1 stop inside the 10-yard-line to keep the margin at 21 into halftime however. Defense carried the third quarter as there were no points added until North Carolina hit a 49-yard field goal with 41 seconds remaining. After comeback wins in the first two games the Tar Heels made a great run at it again, getting to 21-10 and then 21-18 with about six minutes remaining after going 80 yards in five plays and hitting the two-point conversion. Wake Forest was able to pick up several first downs to exhaust North Carolina’s timeouts but the Deacons kept the game in play by settling for a field goal with a minute to go. North Carolina moved 33 yards before time ran out with officials later admitting one second should have been given to the Heels for a final play after picking up a late first down and getting out of bounds. It would have been a Hail Mary from there but the Tar Heels weren’t given a shot at a miracle finish as Wake Forest held on.

Washington State (-8) 31, Houston 24: Houston kept the prolific Washington State offense in check in the first half with a 14-7 lead at the break as those playing the mid-70s ‘over’ found trouble early with a scoreless first quarter. Washington State scored two touchdowns in the third quarter to get back in front and held Houston to a field goal early in the fourth quarter after a penalty handed off good field position. That four-point edge allowed Washington State to get past the favorite number with the following touchdown drive, leading 28-17 with fewer than seven minutes remaining. Washington State backers got a big break as Houston fumbled on its next offensive play but Washington State only got three points despite reaching 1st-and-goal from the 3-yard-line. A roughing the passer penalty got Houston’s final drive off to a promising start and with just over two minutes remaining a touchdown run from D’Eriq King put Houston within seven, where the final held for the narrow underdog cover.

Kansas State (+7) 31, Mississippi State 24: Kansas State was in control in the first quarter but a costly personal foul penalty allowed Mississippi State to extend a late drive and get to halftime down 17-14 instead of 17-7. The Bulldogs controlled the third quarter and took the lead with a touchdown, sitting even with the closing spread after an early fourth quarter field goal made it 24-17. The kickoff was returned 100 yards by Malik Knowles for a tying score for the Wildcats to shift the momentum back. The defenses held from there until a marginal punt put Kansas State in favorable field position and the Wildcats hit a pair of big passes on the way to the end zone for a seven-point advantage with about five minutes to go. Mississippi State would reach inside the Kansas State 30 on the next drive but went backwards and on 4th-and-16 wound up just a yard short.

Air Force (+3) 30, Colorado 23: The first meeting between these nearby schools featured some big swings as Colorado jumped out to a 10-0 lead and then trailed 20-10 by halftime. Neither team scored in the third quarter and Air Forced extended its lead with a field goal in the fourth while posting a big rushing edge as expected. Colorado would answer about four minutes later but the PAT was blocked as Air Force maintained a seven-point edge. Air Force had a pair of penalties on its next drive and had to punt quickly as Colorado had the ball back with a chance to tie. It took 13 plays but the Buffaloes were able get a touchdown in the final minute and the PAT was good to force overtime. Colorado didn’t keep the momentum long as in overtime Kadin Remsberg went 25 yards for the score on 1st down and Air Force then stopped the Buffaloes for the upset win.

Alabama (-27) 47, South Carolina 23: The box score reveals plenty of concerns for Alabama and South Carolina answered the early punches trailing only 14-10 after the first quarter. Alabama missed a field goal late in the second quarter after being handed good field position as the lead was just 24-10. South Carolina’s chance to truly get back in the game came up empty as in the final seconds before the break the Gamecocks couldn’t get into the end zone after reaching the 1-yard-line, eventually failing going for it on 4th-and-3. Alabama would pull away in the third quarter with a 21-point advantage, one touchdown short of covering the heavy road favorite spread. South Carolina would add a field goal in the fourth but Alabama quickly answered to lead by 24. A promising South Carolina drive ended in a Ryan Hilinski interception and despite limited rushing success the entire game, the Tide eventually worked its way into the end zone, converting on 4th-and-1. That appeared to be the spread-saving score for flocks of Tide backers but Will Muschamp and the Gamecocks had the last laugh, converting a 4th down with 15 seconds to go and hitting the end zone on the next play to narrowly take the underdog cover back.

Army (-14½) 31, Texas San Antonio 13: Army had a 17-7 lead through three quarters but extended the advantage to 24-7 early in the fourth. Following a nice kickoff return, the Roadrunners would add six but not the conversion to climb within the spread down 11. Army intended to run out the clock but they ran out of field and UTSA opted to use its timeouts. Army eventually rushed in from three yards out on 1st down with just over a minute remaining to get past the favorite spread despite being close to the range for taking a knee. UTSA was still a threat to steal the cover back late in the game reaching the Army 21 before an interception.

BYU (+5) 30, USC 27: These teams were knotted at 17-17 at halftime before the scoring went blank in the third quarter. BYU had a fumble and then failed to add points after a long drive trying to go for it on 4th-and-3 inside the 10. A 92-play USC touchdown drive followed to put the Trojans in front but BYU got back within the number with a field goal with about eight minutes remaining. BYU held the USC offense to a 3-and-out and the Cougars answered quickly with a three-play touchdown drive to take the lead. An 11-play USC drive followed but it stalled in deep field goal range. Chase McGrath would hit from 52 to tie the game with just under two minutes remaining. In overtime USC picked up a sack and forced BYU to kick a field goal but USC freshman quarterback Kedon Slovis was intercepted to end the game. The overtime points also were enough to push the total ‘over’ for many as BYU ‘under’ backers were burned for a second straight week by the extra-session, though this week’s total did climb to close at 57½ at many outlets for mixed possible results.

Oklahoma State (-12½) 40, Tulsa 21: Tulsa played a great first half to lead 21-20 in a huge home game for the program. That score held in the first 10 minutes of the third quarter before Oklahoma State put two quick touchdowns together, the second coming on a 90-yard pass play as the Cowboys suddenly led by 12. Oklahoma State went for two and came up empty in a critical spread result play heading into the fourth quarter. Tulsa was stopped on downs twice in the fourth quarter including inside the Oklahoma State 10-yard-line. The Cowboys hadn’t been past the favorite spread in the entire game but on 4th-and-1 with just over two minutes remaining Chuba Hubbard rushed for 33 yards to put the Cowboys up 19.

Arkansas (-9½) 55, Colorado State 34: After losing to Colorado State last season, Arkansas was again caught in a tough battle with the Rams, this season at home. Arkansas led 27-24 at halftime and the game was tied 34-34 through three quarters. Big plays followed for Arkansas with a 62-yard pass play for a second touchdown in the fourth quarter that put Arkansas past the favorite spread and a fumble return touchdown led to a lopsided final margin that the Razorbacks didn’t necessarily deserve.

Louisville (-10½) 38, Western Kentucky 21: Louisville quarterback Jawon Pass was a late scratch for this game but Louisville took a commanding 31-7 lead at halftime, helped by a defensive score just before the break. Both teams scored in the third as the 24-point edge held but Western Kentucky found the end zone early in the fourth to sit down 17 and one score away from the underdog cover. The Hilltoppers recovered the onside kick but failed going for it on 4th-and-15 just past midfield. Louisville helped the cause for the Hilltoppers by also going for it on 4th down near midfield instead of punting as Western Kentucky got the ball back in great field position. On the next drive the Hilltoppers reached the Louisville 6-yard-line but couldn’t get in and they also failed near midfield again on a late drive as Louisville held on for the favorite cover in Nashville.

Iowa (-1½) 18, Iowa State 17: This anticipated rivalry game had a nearly three-hour delay early in the game with lightning before the contest lived up to its billing with an exciting finish. Iowa State took a 14-6 lead on just two plays out of halftime after a fumble led to Iowa getting three points just before the break. Iowa added three more in the third quarter and then struck early in the fourth quarter with a seven-play touchdown drive to take the lead. Up one Iowa would miss on a critical two-point conversion try on a spread that was steady at -1½ with brief wavering up to -2 at times. Iowa State responded with a long drive but also settled for just a short field goal to lead by two halfway through the fourth quarter. Iowa again would lean on kicker Keith Duncan who a few minutes later struck from 39 to put the Hawkeyes back in front by one. Iowa State’s final drive was not without drama as Iowa declined an offensive penalty on 3rd-and-13 to force 4th down just outside of field goal range. On the first attempt of that play Iowa was called for clear pass interference but a second unseen flag whistled Iowa State for holding to offset the huge call that would have given the Cyclones a new set of downs. Iowa State was unable to convert the re-do but managed to force Iowa to a punt with the Hawkeyes surprisingly opting to pass on third down and getting out of bounds to keep well over a minute on the clock. On the punt disaster struck with a Cyclones blocker running into the returner with a slight push from an Iowa player on a short kick, ultimately contacting the ball and allowing Iowa to re-gain possession, where they took a knee to seal the narrow win but left the Cyclones with the cover.

Florida (-8½) 29, Kentucky 21: Kentucky snapped a long losing streak in this series last season but they didn’t seem ready to give the series right back to the favored Gators. Sawyer Smith led the Wildcats in his first start to a 14-7 halftime lead with the Gators having two turnovers and a missed field goal in the first half. Florida added a field goal in the third quarter after a long Kentucky drive ended in an interception but the Wildcats put the margin back to two scores quickly with a touchdown. Both teams were stopped on downs on the following possessions and with Kyle Trask replacing an injured Feleipe Franks the Gators had a quick touchdown drive in six plays to climb within five, missing on the two-point conversion. Later in the fourth Smith was intercepted near midfield but an unsportsmanlike penalty after the play pushed Florida into lesser field position. Florida was aided by two 15-yard penalties and managed to score in just four plays, taking a 22-21 lead after again failing going for the two-point conversion. The Wildcats were in position to answer but were seemingly more concerned with burning clock than getting the lead back and they wound up burned as Chance Poore narrowly missed a 35-yard kick for the lead. Looking for a first down to end the game Josh Hammond broke free and raced 76 yards for a touchdown in the final seconds and the extra-point put Florida up by eight to match the common spread on the game ahead of the weekend, though those that jumped on the Gators on Saturday mostly fell just short.

Washington (-22) 52, Hawai’i 20: Hopes for three Pac-12 wins for the Warriors went out the window quickly as Washington raced out to a 38-0 lead before Hawai’i managed a touchdown right before halftime. The Warriors didn’t fold in the second half however netting two touchdowns to climb within 18 and in position to cover the hefty underdog number. Washington would get back in front of the number early in the fourth and then added another score after an interception to seal the win and cover in a bounce back from last week’s loss to Cal.

San Diego State (-17) 31, New Mexico State 10: The Aggies made a late play to cover with 10 points in a five-minute span late in the third quarter after falling behind 24-0. San Diego State scored to get back past the number early in the fourth quarter and on the responding drive New Mexico State couldn’t convert after reaching the Aztecs 17-yard-line. New Mexico State also reached San Diego State territory late in the fourth but on 1st down a fumble handed the ball back to San Diego State.

Clemson (-27½) 41, Syracuse 6: Clemson led just 17-6 at halftime and was short of the favorite spread with a 27-6 edge through three quarters. Trevor Lawrence turned in a fourth-quarter touchdown drive as the Tigers led by 28 to slip by the spread and a late Syracuse threat was turned away in Clemson territory. For good measure Chez Mellusi broke a 57-yard rush in the final minute to pad the final score for the top ranked Tigers.

Virginia (-7) 31, Florida State 24: The Cavaliers were a -7½-point favorite much of the week but that didn’t seem relevant as Florida State led most of this game, up by seven through three quarter and well into the fourth quarter after answering an early fourth quarter tying score from Virginia. The Cavaliers looked set to tie the game with about six minutes to go with an efficient Bryce Perkins drive finding the end zone but a missed PAT left the Seminoles in front by one. The Virginia defense delivered the 3-and-out however and it took just five plays with the help of a penalty for Virginia to find the end zone again. Down five Perkins converted the two-point try and the Cavaliers led by seven to hit the number for some. James Blackman had a chance to deliver the tying score with a personal foul converting a late 4th down incompletion while pass interference added more yards for the Seminoles who received four 15-yard penalties on the drive. Florida State reached the Virginia 4-yard-line scrambling without timeouts and ran a final play that left Cam Akers just short of the end zone.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

College football Week 4: Early bettors pound Georgia odds for showdown vs. Notre Dame
Patrick Everson

A big clash of top-10 programs highlights Week 4 on the college football schedule. Covers checks in on the opening odds and early action, with insights from Matt Chaprales, head of content for PointsBetUSA in New Jersey.

No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs (-12)

Georgia reached the College Football Playoff title game two years ago and is trying to burnish its credentials for this year’s CFP. The Bulldogs (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) have played three lightweights so far, including in Week 3, when they thumped Arkansas State 55-0 as 32.5-point home favorites.

Notre Dame landed a spot in last season’s CFP semifinals, where it got completely outclassed by Clemson in a 30-3 loss. The Fighting Irish (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) punished hapless New Mexico 66-14 as 34.5-point home faves Saturday.

Bulldogs backers didn’t wait long to get out of the gate, moving the line 2 points to -14 by Monday night.

“Huge early-season game with major playoff implications,” Chaprales said. “A loss effectively kills Notre Dame’s chances, while Georgia would face a significant uphill climb. We took some Georgia action at the opener of 12, moved quickly to 12.5 and then straight through 13 to 13.5. Despite both teams being ranked in the top 10, this number – along with the direction it’s moved – underscores just how far apart the market thinks they are.”


No. 10 Michigan Wolverines at No. 14 Wisconsin Badgers (-3)

Michigan had a Week 3 bye and probably needed it after surviving a major home upset bid in Week 2. The Wolverines (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS) went off as 21.5-point favorites against Army and never led until overtime, coming away with a 24-21 victory.

Wisconsin also comes into this noon ET Saturday clash well-rested off a Week 3 bye. The Badgers (2-0 SU and ATS) won their first two games by a combined 110-0, including a 61-0 Week 2 victory over Central Michigan laying 34 points at home.

“On one side, you have a public team in Michigan that hasn’t looked great – 0-2 ATS, nearly lost outright at home to Army – and on the other, a Wisconsin squad that’s tossed a pair of perfect games against minnows so far,” Chaprales said. “Recreational bettors will nonetheless likely be interested in the Wolverines at plus money.”

Early bettors apparently like the host Badgers, though, with the line moving to -3.5, back to -3, then returning to -3.5.


No. 9 Auburn Tigers at No. 15 Texas A&M Aggies (-3.5)

Auburn got a resume-building win over Oregon in Week 1, then moved to 3-0 SU and ATS with wins over a couple of lesser lights. In Week 3, the Tigers crunched Kent State 55-16, cashing as hefty 36-point faves.

Texas A&M (2-1 SU) has also been good to bettors so far, cashing in all three of its outings, including a 24-10 Week 2 loss catching 16.5 points at No. 1 Clemson. The Aggies faced FCS foe Lamar in Week 3 and ran it up 62-3 giving 45 points at home.

The line ticked up a half-point to A&M -4 for this Southeastern Conference showdown, set for 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday.

“Key conference opener that could determine the direction each of these programs is headed,” Chaprales said. “Auburn and true freshman quarterback Bo Nix passed their first test of season by sliding past Oregon, while A&M didn’t put up much resistance against Clemson a few weeks ago, needing a last-second touchdown to get the backdoor cover. Slight adjustment off the opener of 3.5, but minimal activity since.”


No. 11 Utah Utes at No. 24 Southern California Trojans (+3.5)

Southern Cal lost starting quarterback JT Daniels (ACL) in Week 1, and while true freshman Kedon Slovis looked superb in Week 2 against Stanford, he looked his age in Week 3. Slovis threw three interceptions at Brigham Young, and the Trojans (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) fell just short 30-27 laying 5 points.

Utah rolled over that same BYU team in Week 1, on the road no less, with a 30-12 victory as a 5-point chalk. The Utes (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) blanked Idaho State 31-0 giving 36.5 points at home Saturday.

This line bounced between Utah -3.5 and -4, sitting at the latter Monday night, for a Pac-12 After Dark clash at 9 p.m. ET Friday.

“This game was shaping up as Utah’s coming-out party, but USC’s loss to BYU put a damper on that,” Chaprales said. “The Pac-12 South figures to be Utah’s to lose this season, but needless to say, a slip-up in a high-profile prime-time spot would be very detrimental.”

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 4
September 17, 2019
By Bruce Marshall

THURSDAY, SEPT. 19

Matchup Skinny Edge

HOUSTON at TULANE ...Willie Fritz has covered 2 of last 3 in series, all as dog, won outright in 2017. Cougs just 5-12 as chalk away from home since late 2015. If Wave a dog note Fritz 4-0 in role at home since 2017.
Slight to Tulane, based on team trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

By: Monty Andrews



TROUBLE FOR SPARTANS?

The Michigan State Spartans will have to do without one of their standout offensive linemen until November. Kevin Jarvis suffered a knee injury in last week's stunning loss to Arizona State and is expected to be out for six or seven weeks, according to Spartans head coach Mark Dantonio.

Jarvis and the rest of the Spartans' offensive line had their hands full in last week's loss, with Michigan State producing just 3.2 yards per carry while having five passes broken up and allowing a sack. Tyler Higby will take over for Jarvis at left tackle going into this weekend's encounter with host Northwestern.

And while the Wildcats were torched 30-14 by UNLV last time out, they ranked 26th in run defense a season ago and held the Spartans to just 19 points in last year's meeting at Spartan Stadium. We like MSU to come in below its team total of 24.5.


NOT SO FAST!

Don't get too excited, Dillon Gabriel fans. Central Florida head coach Josh Huepel isn't ready to name the sensational freshman as the starting quarterback for Saturday's visit to Pittsburgh. This despite Gabriel going off in last week's statement victory over visiting Stanford, throwing for 347 yards and four touchdowns.

Gabriel has the hot hand ahead of season-opening No. 1 Brandon Wimbush and the recently-returned-from-injury Darriel Mack, both of whom were expected to see action against the Cardinal. In the end, Wimbush saw just one snap while Mack didn't play.

It would be foolhardy for UCF to pivot away from Gabriel, whose advanced level of play should allow the Knights to dominate the time of possession. That, combined with Pitt's ugly offensive numbers (14.7 PPG, 2.8 YPC), make UCF a great pick ATS.


DOWN FOR THE COUNT

Collin Hill has suffered yet another devastating knee injury. The Colorado State quarterback suffered a torn left ACL in last week's loss to the Arkansas Razorbacks and will miss the remainder of the season.

That could be it for Hill's football career, as this is the third time he has torn the ACL in his left knee. Hill was enjoying a terrific season for the Rams, having completed better than two-thirds of his pass attempts for 840 yards with eight touchdowns and two interceptions. Patrick O'Brien will take over the starting role beginning with Saturday's game against visiting Toledo.

This line has shifted three points in the Rockets’ favor since opening at -6.5, and that might be too much movement. O'Brien was impressive in relief last time out, while CSU went 2-0 ATS as home underdogs of 7-plus points in 2018. We like the home side here.


A GREAT UNKNOWN

Saturday's tall task might have become a whole lot tougher for the Auburn Tigers as they prepare to open their SEC schedule against No. 17 Texas A&M at Kyle Field.

Senior defensive tackle Derrick Brown is considered questionable for the game after suffering an upper-body injury early in last week's victory over Kent State. Tigers head coach Gus Malzahn considers Brown "day-to-day". The projected first-round pick in next year's NFL draft has seven tackles (one for loss) in three games, and has 22.5 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks in his three-plus years at Auburn.

Brown's absence would be a devastating one for the Tigers' defense – and a major boost to a Texas A&M rush attack averaging a robust 5.4 yards per carry. Look to either the Aggies ATS or the Over on their team total if Brown is ruled out.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Houston at Tulane
September 17, 2019
By Joe Nelson

Thursday night college football returns with an American Athletic Conference West division battle between Houston and Tulane. Houston has won 13 of the last 15 meetings but Tulane has taken two of the past five including the last home meeting two seasons ago. Take a look at this week’s ESPN contest to kick off the college football weekend.

Houston Cougars at Tulane Green Wave

Yulman Stadium in New Orleans, Louisiana
Time/TV: Thursday, Sept. 19, 8:00 PM ET, ESPN
Line: Tulane -4½, Over/Under 55½
Last Meeting: 2018, at Houston (-7½) 48, Tulane 17

Despite contrasting levels of success in over the past decade, right now Houston is just 1-2 while Tulane heads into this contest at 2-1 including a pair of home wins. This will be the conference opener for both teams and the start of the AAC West race where both squads will be chasing the heavy favorite Memphis.

Houston has faced a pair of top 25 squads losing 49-31 in the season opener at Oklahoma while last Friday, the Cougars narrowly earned a cover with a 31-24 defeat against Washington State across town at NRG Stadium. The only win for Houston came against FCS Prairie View with a 37-17 result.

Tulane dominated a prime time home opener against Florida International in late August and played competitively in a 24-6 loss at Auburn in Week 2 before blowing out FCS Montana State last week 58-6 at home with a 540-182 edge in yardage.

Houston quarterback D’Eriq King accounted for 50 touchdowns last season and he already has nine in three games to lead the Cougars. Houston is in a transition season with Dana Holgorsen taking over the program after modest success over eight seasons at West Virginia. Holgorsen was an assistant at Houston for two years in 2008 and 2009 and surprised many by jumping down to the smaller conference program after Major Applewhite was let go after two seasons. Houston gave Holgorsen a five-year deal worth $20 million as he is by a wide margin the highest paid Group of 5 head coach in the nation.

Applewhite and Tony Levine have both been let go by Houston following 8-5 seasons in the last decade as the bar is high for the Cougars who hope Holgorsen can be a long term winner that stays put after losing Art Briles, Kevin Sumlin, and Tom Herman to higher profile major conference positions.

Houston draws a difficult schedule in AAC play as no game can be taken for granted and ultimately the Cougars will be playing four of the first five games away from its home stadium as the Cougars are on the road again next week with a non-conference game at North Texas. Houston has to play UCF and Cincinnati from the AAC East as continuing a run of six straight bowl bids can’t be assumed and this week’s game could wind up as a critical swing game in that pursuit for a pair of teams that are expected to finish above the bowl cut-line but not by a wide margin.

Tulane has improved in win count in three straight seasons under Willie Fritz, technically finishing in a tie for 1st in the AAC West last season with Houston and Memphis at 5-3, with Memphis getting to play in the AAC Championship. Improving in win count again this season won’t be easy with UCF and Temple drawn from the East plus a challenging non-conference game at Army still ahead following a bye next weekend. The AAC West has had three different championship game representatives over the four seasons of its existence with Houston winning the inaugural AAC title game in 2015.

Fritz led the Wave to a bowl win last season for the first time for the program since 2002 and Tulane is looking to put together back-to-back winning seasons for the first time since 1997 and 1998 when Tommy Bowden led the Wave to a 12-0 season before heading to Clemson. Tulane hasn’t had consecutive bowl seasons since 1979 and 1980 as Fritz has been a great hire and now owns a 172-91 career record counting his lower level success at Central Missouri and Sam Houston State before he went 17-7 at Georgia Southern over two years.

Tulane has rushed for 768 yards in three games posting 5.9 yards per rush with Justin McMillan the leading rusher from the quarterback position. McMillan is a senior that played sparingly until he unseated Jonathan Banks midway through last season. McMillan posted similar numbers to Banks, but benefitted from a lighter late season schedule and keyed several narrow wins down the stretch with Tulane beating Tulsa, South Florida, East Carolina and Navy to win four of the final five before also winning the Cure Bowl against Louisiana-Lafayette.

Houston started last season 7-1 and the home win over Tulane in mid-November was the only win for the Cougars the rest of the way. The Cougars played without King in the final two games after he was injured against the Green Wave and behind backup Clayton Tune, the Cougars were blown out against Memphis in the season finale and in the bowl game vs. Army by a combined score of 122-45, prompting Applewhite’s release.

In September it is always worth checking the weather in the south and southeast and the early Thursday forecast does call for some wind upwards of 15 MPH with warm humid temperatures and a 20 percent chance of a shower or stray thunderstorm.

Last season:
The one late season loss for Tulane last year came in this matchup, also on a Thursday night. Houston dominated with a 31-9 edge by halftime and a 41-9 lead through three quarters in a contest where Tulane had four turnovers. The contest was memorable more for a sideline confrontation between then Houston head coach Major Applewhite and star defensive lineman Ed Oliver, who wasn’t even suited up to play in the game. D’Eriq King was injured in the game as Houston leaned on running back Patrick Carr and took advantage of Tulane mistakes including two interceptions from Justin McMillan.

Historical Trends:
Houston is on a 13-2 S/U and 12-3 ATS run in this series since 2003, but Tulane won the last home meeting two years ago, 20-17 as a nine-point underdog. Since 2013, Houston is on a 10-11 S/U and 17-4 ATS run as an underdog, which they haven’t been vs. Tulane since 2003. Since 2016 under Willie Fritz, Tulane is 12-8 S/U and 12-7-1 ATS in home games including going 10-4 ATS since the start of the 2017 season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Week 4 - Upset Alerts
September 18, 2019
By Matt Blunt

No complaints about bad numbers in terms of last week's plays, as they were more about backing bad teams that simply got overwhelmed by superior talent. Indiana and New Mexico just couldn't keep Ohio State and Notre Dame off the scoreboard to fall well short of even sniffing a cover as big underdogs.

The news wasn't all bad though as Air Force managed to take full advantage of the brutal situational spot Colorado found themselves in. The Falcons nearly coughed up the game (and cover) after having lead for the bulk of that contest, but they managed to hold on long enough to get the outright win in OT, to have the selections avoid it's second consecutive 0-3 ATS week.

A 1-2 ATS record last week with the lone cover winning outright as well is the step in the right direction, and while I may have wasted most of my luck with the huge 20+ underdogs last year, I'm confident that things will turn around here soon for all the underdogs in this weekly piece.

So while it's highly understandable that backing these plays this week may be tough to do given recent results, that narrative actually ties in quite well with the specific teams involved in this week's plays. We've got a few teams that the general betting market wants little to do with after what they've seen from them in the first few weeks of the season. There has generally been nothing but criticism, ridicule and laughter for how some of these teams have performed so far this year, and in terms of the perception vs reality notion, that actually does present some inherent value in their point spreads. Now it's just up to these teams (and myself with the selections) to get the job done.

Upset Alert #1: Underdogs in the +1 to + 9 range
YTD: 1-2 SU; 2-1 ATS

Michigan (+3.5) vs Wisconsin

Back in the summer when I penned this piece for the site, I did so always having this game in mind and circled on the calendar for a spot to back the Wolverines. Even with Michigan narrowly beating Army last time out, and Jim Harbaugh's team on a 0-6 ATS run dating back to the end of last year, I think this is just the spot, opponent, and time for Michigan to get their 2019 season rolling on the right foot.

The betting market has been quick to get on Harbaugh and the Wolverines this season, talking about how it's the same old, outdated Harbaugh offense that's holding the Wolverines from reaching their full potential yet again this year, and it seems inevitable to most that Michigan will find new and interesting ways to blow it in the biggest games of the year like they have in the past. Going up against a Wisconsin team that's yet to allow a single point this season is a situation that looks like a great spot to further those beliefs as Michigan is a team that very little want anything to do with right now, other then to fade them. Given how well the Badgers have looked so far, it's no surprise that the bulk of the action (70%+) has already come Wisconsin's way.

But being 'tested' early on in a season is something I prefer to look at as a positive for a team like Michigan, because it gets those competitive juices flowing, allows them to know how they'll react when facing adversity, and the more they come out on the positive end of those contests – like they did vs Army – the confidence only grows.

Conversely, Wisconsin has gone up against two cupcakes so far and have yet to had their feet to the fire. There is plenty of confidence having outscored opponents 110-0 through two games, but the Badgers have yet to see any sort of adversity and therefore, we've yet to see how they react when they do so. Sure, they could pass that first test with flying colors, but I'm not sure that will be the case against a team that's as highly ranked or as talented as the Wolverines are. You'd always prefer some early season struggles to come up against a much lesser team where the likelihood of overcoming it is much greater – say like a team like Army, or Illinois, Indiana etc – and I'm not sure this Wisconsin team has what it takes to take the heat when it comes down to it. Yes, Wisconsin could have 'revenge' on their mind after last year's 38-13 loss to Harbaugh's squad, but that score was telling the other way as well in that Harbaugh and Michigan understand how to move the ball against a tough defense like Wisconsin's and will be able to do so again.

The “Redemption Tour” for Michigan might have ended in disappointment for the Wolverines last year with their performance against the Buckeyes at the end of the campaign, but it will be that take no prisoners attitude that serves Michigan well in this game with many doubters lurking out there. With the market's perception already highly negative on Harbaugh yet again, he and his team knows that there aren't many greater feelings then proving the majority wrong, and I expect them to do exactly that in Madison, Wisconsin on Saturday.

Upset Alert #2: Underdogs in the +10 to +19 range
0-3 SU; 0-3 ATS

Tennessee (+14) vs Florida

Speaking of teams that continually get ridiculed and laughed at in the betting market, we've got the Tennessee Volunteers catching double-digits in the Swamp this weekend. It's definitely hard to defend what we've seen from the Volunteers so far in 2019 having dropped game easily winnable games to Georgia State and BYU, as this is a program that not only can't shake the choke job persona in the market, but sees that notion grow seemingly every week.

Yet, sometimes all it takes for a program in the midst of getting crapped on is to go out and beat up on a little brother so to speak. Tennessee did that last week with a 45-0 win (ATS cover as well) vs Chattanooga, and any internal doubts/issues with confidence inside that locker room had to get a boost. There is no redoing those losses to Georgia State and BYU, especially how they happened, but with those still so fresh in the minds of many bettors, the general market wants absolutely nothing to do with the Volunteers. But any athlete will tell you, being counted out and endlessly ridiculed and doubted, only makes the redemption that much sweeter when it comes around.

On the other side of the coin, we've got a Gators team who is turning to QB Kyle Trask this week after Feleipe Franks went down for the year. Bettors saw Trask step in and lead the Gators to a comeback against Kentucky last week, so there is plenty of positive reinforcement there to further get units down against Tennessee in this game. Yet, it's still Trask's first career collegiate start under center, and that has to bring some concerns in its own right, never mind the fact that he's expected to lead his team to a two-TD victory.

Perception and reality just don't appear to be close to meeting in my eyes for this game, and that's probably why this point spread is a little higher then it should be in my view. Yes, we've seen Trask perform well in limited action this year, but what did he have to lose in that scenario? Had he not gone out and led the Gators to a comeback last week it would have essentially been a free pass for him given the situation he stepped into, and leading the comeback like he did only inflated the general perception about his talent.

But the fact that he had nothing to lose in terms of perception from stepping into that scenario allowed him to play free and easy on those final drives, and relaxed athletes with nothing to lose tend to always perform at their best. This week, the pressure amps up quite a bit as there is much more on his shoulders in terms of potentially suffering a loss here, and it will be interesting to see how he and the Gators react.

Besides, wouldn't it be a complete Tennessee thing to do to lose their first two games of the year in the fashion that they did, and then turn around and go into the Swamp and get an outright upset victory? I'm not sure that will end up being the case, but the Volunteers will put their best foot forward in trying to do so, and keep this game much closer then a number like this suggests.

Upset Alert #3: Underdogs in the +20 and above range
YTD: 0-3 SU; 0-3 ATS

Miami OH (+39) at Ohio State

As has been the case with my handicapping in other sports this year, there are plenty of times where plays of mine end up being losses as they come a game/week too early. Fading Ohio State on the road last week in their Big 10 opener proved to be a wrong cap by far, but I'm hoping that I was just a week too early on fading this Buckeyes team that's still getting talked up too much in my opinion this year.

This also isn't the greatest spot for the Buckeyes to cover a huge number like this, facing a weak non-conference foe at home, sandwiched between two Big 10 road tilts. Indiana proved to be no match for the Buckeyes, but a trip to Nebraska next week should be much tougher. This week's game against the Redhawks has all the makings of a “get in, get out” type game for Ohio State, as they'll establish a comfortable lead early and then sit on the ball after that. There is no need to send a message to say, the rest of the Big 10, like they did last week against Indiana, so they aren't likely to keep their foot on the gas late like they did last week, and to win, stay healthy, and give some 2nd and 3rd stringers meaningful reps has to be the goal.

Finally, Ohio State comes into this game with a 2-0 ATS record, and during the regular season, the Buckeyes have only covered the number three straight times on one occasion dating back to October 2016. Put it all together and I believe we see this Miami (Ohio) team that's already 1-0 ATS this year as a 20+ underdog get the ATS cash again.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, September 19

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LOS ANGELES (23 - 12) at CONNECTICUT (23 - 11) - 9/19/2019, 6:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOS ANGELES is 6-3 against the spread versus CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
LOS ANGELES is 5-4 straight up against CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LAS VEGAS (22 - 12) at WASHINGTON (25 - 8) - 9/19/2019, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LAS VEGAS is 5-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 4-3 straight up against LAS VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons