Sunday 9-22-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Tech Trends - Week 3
By Bruce Marshall


SUNDAY, SEPT. 22

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DENVER at GREEN BAY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Broncos 1-5 vs. line since late 2018, 9-19-1 last 29 vs. points since early 2017. Also “under” eleven in a row since mid 2018. Pack “under” 9-3 last 12 since mid 2018.
Tech Edge: “Under” and Pack, based on “totals” and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DETROIT at PHILADELPHIA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Lions 5-7 vs. line since early 2018, though have covered 4 of last 6 as road dog. Lions “under” 8-1 last 9 since late 2018, Birds only 2-7 as Linc chalk since LY.
Tech Edge: "Under" and slight to Lions, based on "totals" and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
BALTIMORE at KANSAS CITY (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Ravens 5-2-1 vs. line last 7 reg season since late 2018. Also covered last four on road. KC just 1-4 last five as Arrowhead chalk reg season. Chiefs also “over” 6-2 last eight reg season.
Tech Edge: Ravens and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CINCINNATI at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Cincy is notable 8-2 last ten as road dog and even after SF loss is 5-1 last six vs. line since late 2018. Bills 1-2 as home chalk LY.
Tech Edge: Bengals and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
ATLANTA at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Falcs on 3-12 skid vs. line last 15 on road reg season. Colts “under” 8-3 last eleven since late 2018.
Tech Edge: Colts and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
OAKLAND at MINNESOTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Raiders 1-7 vs. line last eight away from Coliseum LY and now 2-13-2 vs. points last 17 away from home. Oakland also “under” 9-3-1 last 13 away from Coliseum. Zimmer “under” 15-5-1 since late 2017 reg season.
Tech Edge: “Under” and Vikings, based on “totals” and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NY JETS at NEW ENGLAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Gase lost and failed to cover all three at Gillette Stadium while with Dolphins, and his Miami teams were just 8-14-1 as dog the past two seasons. Jets also routed last three at Foxborough as home team 7-1-1 last nine in series. Also last six “under” in series. Belichick 18-7 vs. spread reg season at home since 2016.
Tech Edge: Patriots and “under,” based on team and series trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
MIAMI at DALLAS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Miami no covers last five since late 2018 and 2-11 vs. spread last 13 on road. Dak 6-2-1 last nine as host.
Tech Edge: Cowboys, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NY GIANTS at TAMPA BAY (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Eli was 6-1 as road dog LY before losing in opener at Cowboys. Eli “over” 7-3 last ten since late 2018. Bucs 1-6 last seven as home chalk and “under” 7-1 last eight since late 2018.
Tech Edge: Giants and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CAROLINA at ARIZONA (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Cam on 2-8 spread skid since late 2018. Panthers 2-8 vs. line last ten away, and “under” 5-2 last seven since late 2018.
Tech Edge: Cards and “under,” based on Panthers trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NEW ORLEANS at SEATTLE (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Note Saints were 3-0 as dog LY with a healthy Brees (check status here) and prior to last week were 20-8-1 as dog since 2014. Saints also “under” 9-3 last 11 away.
Tech Edge: "Under" and slight to Saints (if dog and Brees plays), based on “totals” and trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
HOUSTON at LA CHARGERS (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Texans on 8-3-1 spread run last 12 reg season. Also “over” last four on road. Bolts just 2-7 vs. spread at Carson since LY.
Tech Edge: Texans and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
PITTSBURGH at SAN FRANCISCO (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Steel 0-4 as road chalk LY, though 4-1 as road dog since LY. Tomlin 2-7 last nine vs. line since late 2018. Niners 2-0 SU and vs. line in 2019.
Tech Edge: 49ers, based on recent trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
LA RAMS at CLEVELAND (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Rams 10-6 vs. spread last 16 as visitor, while Browns 3-1 as home dog LY. Rams “under” 7-2 last 9 away from Coliseum.
Tech Edge: Slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends.


MONDAY, SEPT. 23

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CHICAGO at WASHINGTON (ESPN, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Jay Gruden was 5-1 as dog before QB injuries mounted in 2018, now 1-1 as dog in 2019. Bears “under” last 9 since late 2018.
Tech Edge: Redskins and “under,” based on team and “totals’ trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

OSKEIM SPORTS

Event: (479) Carolina Panthers at (480) Arizona Cardinals
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 22, 2019 4PM EDT
Play: Arizona Cardinals -127

Note: The analysis below was written prior to Cam Newton being ruled out for Sunday's game. However, the selection remains the same as I had anticipated that Kyle Allen would get the start for the Panthers.

Sources inside the Carolina organization have told me that the team has 'quit' on quarterback Cam Newton, who remains questionable for Sunday's game with a foot injury. Newton has been going to team meetings and rehabbing his sprained left foot but he hasn't seen the practice field as of Thursday. I fully expect backup quarterback Kyle Allen to get the start on Sunday as he has been taking all of the first-team snaps during practice. Reading player's statements to local media also suggests that Allen will be under center against the Cardinals.

I have been extremely impressed with how the Cardinals have played in the first two games of the 2019 campaign. After walking away with a disappointing tie against the Lions in its season opener, Arizona bounced back with a focused effort at Baltimore last Sunday. Specifically, the Cardinals lost 23-16 as thirteen-point underdogs against a Baltimore franchise that is 21-5 all-time against teams from the Pacific and Mountain time zones.

In the event Newton plays, it's important to keep in mind that he is a shell of his former self. Consider Newton's recent health issues: shoulder surgery in the offseason, a foot injury in the preseason and an aggravation of the foot injury in Week 2. The veteran signal-caller entered this season with four-plus carries in 111 of 123 career games but has a total of five carries for negative yardage in 2019.

Newton is no longer a threat with his feet and his ability to throw the ball downfield has all but disappeared. Indeed, Newton has been off-target on a career-high 28% of his throws this season. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Newton has completed just 56.2% of his passes against an expected completion percentage of 65.5%. The 9.3% difference between those two marks is the largest in football through two games.

If Allen gets the nod for Carolina, Arizona head coach Kliff Kingsbury will have plenty of intel to work with. Kingsbury recruited Allen to Texas Tech but didn't land the quarterback. "He was like the number one prospect in the country so he probably threw all our letters away and red-buttoned me every time I called him but I remember watching him, he was very, very talented," Kingsbury said. Since drafting Newton, Carolina is 2-4 ATS in games he does not start. Overall. Newton is 6.1 points per game better than Allen so his absence is significant.

Arizona quarterback Kyle Murray has enjoyed a smooth transition from college to the NFL. Murray was drafted by the coach he has known since he was 15 years old and is working within the same offensive scheme that he's had since eighth grade. And, the rookie has wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald at the other end of his passes. Fitzgerald has 100 yards in his first two games of the season for the first time in his 16-year career (his 217 receiving yards are his second-most through two games).

Murray is only the second NFL quarterback to throw for more than 300 yards in his first two games of his rookie season. And he should have the services of running back David Johnson, who practiced in full on Wednesday after suffering a left wrist injury in Baltimore. Johnson is set to have a breakout day against a subpar Carolina defense that is yielding 133 rushing yards per game. I also like the fact that rookie quarterbacks are a profitable 23-11 ATS in the first three weeks of the season since 2013.

From a technical standpoint, the Panthers are 2-8 ATS in their last ten road games and 2-8 ATS in their previous ten games overall, while the home team is a perfect 6-0 ATS in this series. Carolina has lost nine of its last ten games dating back to Week 8 of last season and has failed to cover the point spread in eight of its previous nine games as a road favorite (keep an eye on the line).

Since 2005, Arizona is 14-0 ATS (+11.57 ppg) off a road game in which no player had double-digit rushing attempts, winning every game straight-up despite being an underdog in each of the last seven. Since 1996, the Cardinals are 12-0 ATS (+9.12 ppg) at home versus non-divisional foes following a loss as underdogs in which they rushed for at least 45 yards less than their season-to-date average.

Finally, Arizona applies to a very good 26-7 ATS system of mine that invests on certain home teams in games priced between +3 and -3. This situation is 16-4 ATS in the last 20 circumstances and 7-1 ATS in the last eight. Take the Cardinals and invest with confidence.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TEDDY COVERS

Event: (485) Pittsburgh Steelers at (486) San Francisco 49ers
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 22, 2019 4PM EDT
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers 6.5 (-108)

3% Take Pittsburgh (#485)

Count me in as a 49ers believer. I bet San Fran Over 8 wins prior to the season and cashed winning bets ON San Fran as they started the season 2-0 with impressive wins by two TD’s or more on the road at Tampa Bay and Cincinnati over the past two weeks. That was then; this is now.

San Fran stayed East last week, practicing and ‘team bonding’ in Youngstown, Ohio prior to their blowout win over the Bengals. Now they return home to friends and family – distractions – in a ‘fat and happy’ spot – off their 2-0 start. The Niners have enjoyed precious little homefield edge in the worst ‘new’ stadium in football out in Santa Clara – their last pointspread cover as a home favorite came in October, 2014 in Jim Harbaugh’s last year on the job! This team is an overvalued commodity this week, plain and simple.

The 0-2 Steelers have already lost Big Ben for the season. But the fact that they just traded a #1 draft pick for CB Minkah Fitzpatrick is a clear message to this locker room – we’re still thinking about making the playoffs THIS YEAR. Mason Rudolph has been in their system and he’s shown plenty of guts and guile –I still remember him leading Oklahoma State to the outright upset win at Oklahoma in his second career start, as a freshman. And it’s surely worth noting that Mike Tomlin’s team hasn’t lost a single road game by more than a TD since 2016 – Pittsburgh hangs tough, consistently, even when Roethlisberger has been hurt. Expect a battle, not a blowout. Take the Steelers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVE PRICE
NFL | Sep 22, 2019
Bengals vs. Bills

1* on Bengals/Bills UNDER 44.5

The Key: The Bills had one of the best defenses in the NFL last season, and they are at it again this year. They are giving up just 15.0 PPG and 296.5 YPG and 4.7 YPP thus far in beating both the Jets and Giants on the road. They like to run the football, control time of possession and play to their strength, which is their defense. The Bengals actually have plenty of talent on defense, and Andy Dalton and the offense just can’t be trusted to score points, especially without their best player in AJ Green. That’s why I like the UNDER in this game Sunday. The Bengals are 16-3 UNDER in their last 19 road games after allowing 450 or more yards in their previous game. The UNDER is 34-16-1 in Bengals last 51 road games against a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 4-1 in Bills last 5 games overall. Take the UNDER.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Sunday, September 22, 2019

NFL (487) LOS ANGELES RAMS VS (488) CLEVELAND BROWNS

Take: (487) LOS ANGELES RAMS

Reason: Your free play on Sunday, September 22, 2019 is in the NFL scheduled contest between the LA Rams and the Cleveland Browns. Your free play is on the RAMS.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BOB VALENTINO

The last time the Broncos and Packers faced each other was back in November of 2015 as the Broncos took a 29-10 decision in Colorado in a game that held Under the total.

I expect this meeting here in 2019 to also hold Under the total, as the Vic Fangio calling card of defense has been front-and-center through 2 games into his head-coaching career. The Broncos played Under the posted total on the opening Monday of the year, a 24-16 setback at Oakland, and they followed last Sunday with a 16-14 last second loss to Chicago on their home field in Denver.

Green Bay likewise has played a pair of games with both ending up holding Under the total. The Packers opening Thursday night game at Chicago ended up 10-3, while their home opener last weekend versus the Vikings sure looked like an Over when Aaron Rodgers and the offense posted 21 first half points, but the game stalled offensively in a 21-16 final.

The Broncos have now played their last 10 games Under the total dating back to last season, and the Under is 14-2-1 overall since Week Two of LAST season!

The Packers are also on a pronounced Under run, as the Low is 9-3 for Green Bay since the middle of last season.

It is clear that Joe Flacco no longer can "outgun" anyone at this point in his career, so look for the Broncos to lean on their defense once again to try and contain the still explosive Aaron Rodgers and his mates in this Sunday meeting.

Play Denver and Green Bay Under for Week Three.

3* DENVER-GREEN BAY UNDER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DWAYNE CONNORS

I am not sure the oddsmakers could post a number high enough on the New York Jets today to make me interested in backing them, as this road meeting on a short work week sure looks like a blowout waiting to happen in Foxborough.



The Jets could only muster a field goal in their Monday night home loss to Cleveland, and they are now playing with their third-string quarterback after Trevor Siemian exited with a leg injury in the second quarter of the loss. Luke Falk didn't look terrible, but he will have to play this game on the road against the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots, and New England looks to be in playoff form already with their dissection of pathetic Miami last weekend.



New England has outscored their first two opponents, 76-3, as they have hammered Pittsburgh by 30, and just laid waste to the Dolphins by 43 points!



Last year the Pats went 7-2 against the spread when favored at home, as they are now 26-10-3 as the home chalk since the 2015 season.



New England has also won all 10 of the last 10 series meetings straight up against New York, and they have covered 3 straight and 4 of the last 5 in the series.



I know this is the NFL, and they saying is..."on any given Sunday...", but I am here to tell you that ain't the case on this particular Sunday at Gillette Stadium.



How about 56-3 Patriots?



Lay it!


4* NEW ENGLAND

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DWAYNE BRYANT

Event: (487) Los Angeles Rams at (488) Cleveland Browns
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 22, 2019 8PM EDT
Play: Total Under 47.5 (-108)

BET SIZE = 1% of Bankroll

The Rams offense gets a lot of press, but this is also a very talented team defensively. Led by DT Aaron Donald, this Rams D held opponents to 19.9 points in its eight regular season road games last season. The Under was 6-2 in those games, including 4-1 versus non-division foes.

The Browns offense hasn't exactly started clicking yet. QB Baker Mayfield has missed quite a few throws & made several mistakes, and he figures to be harrassed a lot by this Rams front. This is not going to be a pleasant night for Mr. Mayfield.

The Browns defense should be classified as pretty good when this season is in the rear view mirror. But, facing the Jets third-string QB last week and giving up 43 points at home to the Titans in the opener doesn't exactly instill confidence. It should be noted that 9 of the 43 points were from a safety and a Pick 6 on one of Mayfield's 3 INTs. Being -3 in turnovers in the NFL often leads to ugly scoreboards.

Rams RB Todd Gurley just doesn't seem capable of carrying the load any more. And this Rams offense has proved to be much more potent at home. The Browns defense should be playing with plenty of motivation and energy given the fact this is the Browns first Sunday Night Football home game since losing 10-6 to the Steelers 11 years ago.

PLAY UNDER.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Mejia

#472 Vikings
#476 Cowboys
#480 Cardinals
#485 Steelers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Todays Round Robin
Harry Walker

#461/2 Den.Broncos/GB Packers Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gridiron Angles - Week 3
By Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Vikings are 10-0 ATS (10.85 ppg) since Nov 03, 2013 off a game as a dog where they gained no more than 15 first downs.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Dolphins are 0-10 ATS (-15.05 ppg) since Oct 29, 2015 as a road dog when they allowed at least 22 first downs last game.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- The Falcons are 0-7-1 OU (-6.25 ppg) since Nov 03, 2013 as a dog coming off a game where Matt Ryan threw at least 2 interceptions.

SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:
-- Teams which have won by at least 25 points in each of the past two games are 26-42-1 ATS. Active against New England.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Lions are 10-0 OU (9.25 ppg) since Dec 24, 2006 and as a dog coming off a game as a dog that went under the total by at least 14 points.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Jets are 0-11-1 OU (-4.88 ppg) since Nov 17, 2011 on the road coming off a home game where they failed to cover by at least seven points.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Falcons are 18-0 ATS (+9.78 ppg) on the road and vs a non-divisional opponent that allowed fewer than 254 total yards in their last game and has less than 14 days rest.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunday Blitz - Week 3
Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Ravens at Chiefs (-5 ½, 52) – 1:00 PM EST

Four AFC teams enter Week 3 with 2-0 records as two of those squads hook up at Arrowhead Stadium. Baltimore (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) has jumped out quickly in spite of beating Miami and Arizona, but quarterback Lamar Jackson has exploded for 596 passing yards and seven touchdowns in the two wins. After routing the Dolphins in the opener, the Ravens failed to cover as 13-point favorites in last Sunday’s 23-17 victory over the Cardinals. Baltimore covered in all three opportunities as a road underdog with Jackson starting in 2018, including outright victories over the Chargers and Falcons.

Kansas City (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) scored all 28 of its points in the second quarter of last Sunday’s 28-10 triumph at Oakland to cash as seven-point favorites. Patrick Mahomes hasn’t dropped off since his MVP performance of 2018 by throwing for 443 yards and four touchdowns against the Raiders. The Chiefs didn’t put up a point in the second half at Oakland, but Kansas City improved to 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 road games.

These teams played one of the top games in 2018 as the Chiefs held off the Ravens in overtime, 27-24 in Week 14. The third game in which Jackson and Baltimore covered in the road ‘dog role came at Arrowhead Stadium as 6 ½-point ‘dogs, while the Ravens rushed for nearly 200 yards. Mahomes posted 377 yards through the air, including the game-tying touchdown pass in the final minute. Kansas City closed last season by compiling a 1-5 ATS record as a home favorite, including the AFC title game loss to New England.

Best Bet: Chiefs 31, Ravens 20

Saints at Seahawks (-4 ½, 44 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

Several teams are down their starting quarterback in Week 3, including New Orleans (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS), who begins the next six-week stretch without Drew Brees. The future Hall-of-Famer sustained a thumb injury in a 27-9 setback to the Rams in an NFC championship rematch as two-point underdogs. Veteran backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater threw for 165 yards in relief, but the Saints dropped to 0-7 ATS the last seven games (including playoffs) dating back to Week 15 of 2018.

The Seahawks (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) held off the Steelers as four-point road underdogs in Week 2 to pick up a rare September road win, 24-20. Seattle had failed to win its previous five road season openers, while posting an 0-5 ATS mark in the past five Week 2 contests. However, Russell Wilson led the Seahawks on four touchdown drives, including three touchdown passes. Seattle’s rushing offense was silenced in Week 1 against Cincinnati, but the Seahawks ran all over the Steelers’ defense for 151 yards.

Seattle has won 15 consecutive September home games dating back to 2010, while Wilson and head coach Pete Carroll have never lost an opening month contest at CenturyLink Field. The Saints are trying to avoid consecutive losses for the first time since dropping the first two games of the 2017 season. New Orleans has lost in its past three visits to the Pacific Northwest, but the Saints won the previous matchup in 2016 at the Superdome, 25-20.

Best Bet: Seahawks 21, Saints 16

Texans at Chargers (-3, 48 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

Both Houston and Los Angeles reached the postseason in 2018, as the two squads look to take that next step towards the Super Bowl in 2019. The Texans (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) rebounded from a last-minute heartbreaking loss to the Saints in Week 1 to edge the division rival Jaguars, 13-12 last Sunday. Houston failed to cash as 7 ½-point favorites even though the defense held Jacksonville out of the end zone for 59 minutes. The Jaguars crept to within one point with a touchdown in the final minute, but Houston stuffed Jacksonville running back Leonard Fournette at the one-yard line on a two-point conversion to preserve the win.

The Chargers (1-1 SU, 0-1-1 ATS) staved off the Colts in overtime in the season opener, but couldn’t score points at crucial times in last Sunday’s 13-10 setback at Detroit. Los Angeles lost a fumble at the goal-line and missed a pair of field goals, while quarterback Philip Rivers was intercepted on the final drive as the Chargers equaled their road loss total from 2018 in the defeat to the Lions. The Lightning Bolts have started strong this season, but have scored a total of seven points in the third and fourth quarters in two games.

Los Angeles has put together a pedestrian 2-5-1 ATS mark in its last eight home contests, while only two of those victories came by seven points or more. Houston has drilled the OVER in four consecutive road games since last season, as the Texans have scored 28 points or more in the past three contests away from NRG Stadium. The Chargers are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in six meetings with the Texans since Houston entered the league in 2002, including a 21-13 victory in 2016 in the Lone Star State.

Best Bet: Texans 27, Chargers 24

BEST TOTAL PLAY (1-0 last week, 1-1 this season)

Over 43 ½ - Bengals at Bills
Cincinnati was blown out last week at home by San Francisco, 41-17, as the Bengals look for a better performance. The Bills play their home opener following consecutive road wins over the Jets and Giants, as both offenses have been terrible this season. The Bengals have thrown the ball plenty in two weeks, as their running game has been horrific. Buffalo has hit the OVER in four of its last five home games, while Cincinnati is 5-2 to the OVER in its last seven road contests started by Andy Dalton.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Packers are in a tough scheduling spot this week following close wins over division foes Chicago and Minnesota. Green Bay welcomes in 0-2 Denver, who is off a tough last-second loss to the Bears last week. The Packers turn around Thursday to face off with Philadelphia at home in an NFC showdown as this non-conference affair Green Bay may not be as sharp for. Green Bay is listed as seven-point favorites, as the Packers compiled a 2-4 ATS mark in the role of home favorites of six points or more in 2018.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

Carolina opened up as 2 ½-point road favorites at Arizona, but after the news came down on Friday that quarterback Cam Newton would sit out with a foot injury, the Cardinals flipped to a two-point favorite. The Panthers turn to Kyle Allen, who is making his second career start for Carolina, who owns an 8-4 ATS mark as a road underdog since 2016. The Cardinals failed to win in two opportunities as a favorite last season, while Arizona has allowed over 450 yards in each of its first two games.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

The Steelers turn to Mason Rudolph as their starting quarterback for likely the rest of 2018 after Ben Roethlisberger suffered a season-ending elbow injury in last week’s loss to Seattle. Pittsburgh has not won a road game without Big Ben as its starting quarterback since a 2015 Monday night victory over the Chargers on a last-second touchdown by Le’Veon Bell. Pittsburgh’s signal-caller that evening in San Diego was none other than Michael Vick.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Total Talk - Week 3
Joe Williams

We're on our way to Week 3 of the National Football League season already. Time flies during football season, as the regular season is already 11.7 percent completed already.

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves

O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 2 3-13 4-11-1 7-9

O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 10-22 10-21-1 18-14

The under was an impressive 13-3 in Week 2, while hitting in 20 of 32 games (63.0 percent). Bettors banging first-half unders have also prospered this season to a 21-10-1 record while individuals chasing the high side in the second-half have managed to trim off some of their losses.

If we get a repeat of Week 3 in 2018, we'll get a lot more lower-scoring results as the under went 12-2-2 last season in Week 3.

Division Bell

The divisional battles saw the 'under' cash in six of seven battles, with only the Dallas Cowboys-Washington Redskins (46 ½) going over the mark. Through two weeks divisional games have seen the 'under' connect in nine of 12 outings, and games involving the Cowboys and Redskins have each hit the 'over' in both weekends.

Divisional Game Results Week 2

Tampa Bay at Carolina Under (48) Tampa Bay 20, Carolina 14
Indianapolis at Tennessee Under (43.5) Indianapolis 19, Tennessee 17
New England at Miami Under (48.5) New England 43, Miami 0
Dallas at Washington Over (46.5) Dallas 31, Washington 21
Minnesota at Green Bay Under (43) Green Bay 21, Minnesota 16
Jacksonville at Houston Under (43) Houston 13, Jacksonville 12
Kansas City at Oakland Under (53) Kansas City 28, Oakland 10

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 3 as of Saturday morning.

New York Jets at New England Patriots: 48 to 43
New Orleans at Seattle: 50 to 45
Detroit at Philadelphia: 49 ½ to 45 ½
Cincinnati at Buffalo: 40 ½ to 44
L.A. Rams at Cleveland: 51 to 47 ½
Pittsburgh at San Francisco: 46 ½ to 44

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 3 per the betting trend percentages as of Saturday morning.

Carolina at Arizona: Over 85%
New Orleans at Seattle: Under 85%
Baltimore at Kansas City: Over 83%
Cincinnati at Buffalo: Over 80%
L.A. Rams at Cleveland: Under 77%
Atlanta at Indianapolis: Over 76%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'under' (76 percent) in the N.Y. Giants-Tampa Bay matchup, and heavy lean on the 'under' in Chicago-Washington (68 percent) battle on Monday night.

Handicapping Week 3

Week 2 Total Results
Year Over/Under
Divisional matchups 1-6
NFC vs. NFC 0-2
AFC vs. AFC 0-1
AFC vs. NFC 2-4

Week 3 is already off to a slow start, as the Tennessee-Jacksonville matchup on Thursday night was low scoring, as the 'under' is now 7-1 through eight primetime battles.

Taking a look at the only remaining divisional battle for Week 3, here are some important trends to note:

N.Y. Jets at New England: The Jets lost their starting quarterback Sam Darnold for Week 2, as he is dealing with a bout of mononucleosis. He is targeting Week 5 for a return. Backup QB Trevor Siemian was supposed to keep the seat warm until Darnold was ready, but QB Luke Falk was thrust into action when Siemian suffered torn ligaments and a season-ending ankle injury on Monday night. Now, it's Falk with newly signed QB David Fales as the backup. Wow.

Of course, the big news for the Patriots was the release of wide receiver Antonio Brown on Friday. As such, the total has been on the move in this game, going from an open of 48 to 43 ½ as of Saturday morning. The 'under' is 6-2 in the past eight games inside the AFC East for the Jets, while going 4-1 in the past five on the road against teams with a winning record. For the Patriots, the under is 7-1 in the past eight inside the division, including last week's lambasting of the Dolphins in Miami, 43-0. The under is also 11-3 in the past 14 overall for the Pats. In this series, the under has cashed in six in a row, too, with the Jets averaging just 9.8 PPG. They're starting their third-string QB, and third signal caller in three games, so don't expect much better production.

Other important AFC-NFC games with important trends to note:

Atlanta at Indianapolis: The Falcons are back on the road where they mustered just 12 points in Week 1 at Minnesota, and none of those points came until the fourth quarter. Atlanta has hit the under in nine of the past 13 games on the road, while going 7-3 in the past 10 games overall. However, the over is 6-0 in their past six battles in Week 3. For the Colts, they have hit the under in eight of the past 11 games overall, while hitting in 15 of the past 21 at Lucas Oil Stadium. The under is also Colts will be playing their 2019 home debut after splitting the over/under in their first two games on the road.

Pittsburgh at San Francisco: The Steelers turn to backup QB Mason Rudolph after losing QB Ben Roethlisberger (elbow surgery) for the season. The Steelers rank 28th in total offense with 284.5 yards per game, while ranking just 29th in rushing yards per contest (56.5). They're 29th in total defense, yielding 445.0 yards per game, 320.0 passing yards (29th) per game and 125.0 rushing yards (23rd) per game, while coughing up 30.5 points per game (28th).

The 49ers have been the opposite, rolling up 413.5 total yards per game to rank seventh, and they're fourth in rushing yards per game (178.5), while scoring 36.0 PPG to rank third in the NFL. This will be their home opener after winning and cover two games on the road. Their defense allowed just 73.0 rushing yards per game to rank eighth, and 17.0 PPG to check in seventh in the league.

Heavy Expectations

There are four games listed with spreads of a touchdown or greater for Week 3, with two games listed with a spread of 21 or more. The totals are ranging from 43 to 47 in these contests and cashing a total could come down to which teams lay off the gas in the second-half.

Denver at Green Bay (1:00 p.m. ET): The Broncos have hit the 'under' in eight of their past 10 on the road against NFC teams. While the Packers defense has looked good through the first two games, one of the games was against the struggling Bears offense, and the other was a home battle against the one-dimensional Vikings. Of course, the Broncos haven't exactly been a juggernaut to this point, so the good times should continue to roll for the Pack. As far as Denver's defense is concerned, they have an alarming ZERO sacks through the first two games.

The under is 6-0 in the past six games for the Broncos following a straight-up loss, and 5-0-1 in the past six following a cover in the following week. The under is also an impressive 19-6-1 in the past 26 for Denver. For the Pack, the under is 4-1 in the past five overall, and 4-0 in the past four following a straight-up victory.

N.Y. Jets at New England (1:00 p.m. ET): In two games last season in this series, the Patriots won 38-3 in Week 7 in Foxboro to hit the 'under', and 27-13 at Met Life Stadium in Week 12, also an 'under'. For more information on this game, see above.

Miami at Dallas (1:00 p.m. ET): The 'under' has connected in each of Miami's past two games as a double-digit underdog. For the first time in NFL history, at least in a non-strike season, there are two teams listed as underdogs of 20 or more points in the same week. The Dolphins are also the biggest underdogs in their franchise history.

The Dolphins were blanked at home last week against the Patriots, and the over/under is 1-1 through their first two games. Miami has been outscored a whopping 102-10 so far. They turn to QB Drew Rosen for his first start in aqua and orange, and he will be making his eighth career road start. The Arizona Cardinals averaged 18.1 points per game with Rosen at the helm on the road. Miami has also allowed 35.4 points per game across their past seven road contests, so another over could be the rule.

For Dallas, the over is a perfect 5-0 in the past five games overall, and 7-2 in the past nine contests at home. The over is also 10-2 in the past 12 games at home against teams with a losing road record.

The under is 29-14 in Miami's past 43 games on a field turf surface, while going 5-2 in their past seven on the road against a team with a winning home record. For the Cowboys, the over is 7-3 in the past 10 on a field turf surface, while going 10-2 in the past 12 at home against teams with a losing record and 4-0 in the past four following a straight-up win.

Oakland at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. ET): The Vikings have hit the under in 10 of the past 12 games at home under head coach Mike Zimmer, with just three teams scoring 20 or more points during the span - the Bills, Saints and Bears. The under is 8-1 in their past nine games on a field turf surface, too, while hitting in four straight overall. The under is 5-1 in their past six following a straight-up loss, and 4-1 in the past five after a non-cover.

The Raiders have hit the under in five of their past seven games in the month of September. The under is 18-7-1 in the past 26 games overall, while going 8-2 in their past 10 games following a double-digit loss at home. In addition, the under is 7-3-1 in the past 11 games on the road. One thing which gives under bettors pause, however, is that Oakland has the league's worst pass defense, allowing 352.0 yards per game, with 415.0 total yards per outing (27th in the NFL).

Under the Lights

L.A. Rams at Cleveland (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): In the Sunday Night Football game, the Rams head to FirstEnergy Stadium for the first SNF game in Cleveland since 2008. The under has cashed in four of the past five games on the road for the defending NFC champions, while the over has cashed in seven of their past 10 games in the month of September. For the Browns, the under is 15-6-1 in the past 22 home games, although the over cashed in their home opener in Week 1, a 43-13 setback against the Titans. The under is 4-1 in Cleveland's past five games when playing on a Sunday after a Monday Night contest.

Chicago at Washington (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): In the Monday nighter, the Bears and 'Skins tussle in D.C. The 'under' is a perfect 7-0 in Chicago's past seven overall, 6-0 in their past six against NFC opponents and 5-1 in their past six appearances on MNF. In addition, the under is 4-1 in their past five against teams with a losing overall record, 4-0 in the past four following a straight-up win and 4-0 in the past four after a non-cover in their previous game. As far as the 'Skins are concerned, the over has cashed in four of their past five games overall. However, the under is 7-3 in the past 10 after a non-cover, while going 6-1 in the past seven after allowing 30 or more points in their previous outing. The under is also 8-1 in the past nine when Washington allowed 150 or more rushing yards in their previous contest.

And remember, going into Sunday's Rams-Browns tilt, the under is 7-1 so far through eight primetime games. For bettors playing more than just the game total, make a note that the first-half under is 8-0 in games played under the lights while the low side is 5-3 in the second-half.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Semifinals have home squads up 2-0

UNCASVILLE, Conn. (AP) Jonquel Jones and Courtney Williams got the Connecticut Sun going in the third quarter and the team never looked back.

Jones scored 27 points and Williams added 25 to help the Sun rout the Los Angeles Sparks 94-68 on Thursday night and take a 2-0 lead in the WNBA semifinals.

''I think we brought a different type of energy. LA came out and hit us in our mouth,'' Williams said of the Sparks' early lead. ''You know we had to come out and withstand their runs, stay mentally strong. We know basketball is a game of runs. We went on our run and kept our foot on the gas.''

Game 3 of the best-of-five series is Sunday in Long Beach, California, as the Sparks' normal home in Los Angeles isn't available.

''Right now at this time of the year our home court at Staples is prioritized with the Kings and their preseason games. So that's how it is,'' said Nneka Oguwmike, who led the Sparks with 18 points.

The Sun led by one at the half before Williams helped blow the game open. She scored 13 of her points in the third quarter to the delight of her dad, Don, who was courtside wearing her No. 10 jersey. He was jumping up and down on every one of her baskets and waving a towel and a cardboard cutout of his daughter's head. After the final buzzer, he ran on the court and picked up his daughter in a bear hug.

''Having my dad there is crazy. It's an amazing feeling to look over there and see someone bringing more energy than me,'' Williams said. ''He's been here since I was born, obviously. ... It takes me to another level to be able to look over to him and him telling me to stop turning the ball over. ... Telling me free throws are free, don't miss no free throws. Having him here, I love it.''

Connecticut led 70-57 after three quarters and scored 10 of the first 12 points in the fourth to dash any hopes Los Angeles had of a comeback. Sparks coach Derek Fisher pulled his starters with 5:31 left and his team down 23 points.

Riquna Williams added 14 for the Sparks, who will have to win three straight to make the WNBA Finals for the third time in five years.

''We weren't able to sustain the fight and energy it takes to win these games on the road,'' Fisher said. ''Credit them for how hard they were able to play.''

Riquna Williams had a dismal Game 1, missing eight of her nine shots and scoring just two points in the nine-point loss. She got out to a quick start on Thursday, scoring seven points in the first five minutes. Los Angeles led 16-6 midway through the period when Connecticut called timeout. The Sun then scored nine straight to get within one before the Sparks closed the quarter with the final six points.

The Sun battled back and took their first lead of the game with 1:04 left in the half on a basket by Jones. Connecticut led 41-40 at the half. Jones had 15 points for Connecticut while Ogwumike made all six of her shots and had 12 for Los Angeles.

IRONWOMAN

Alyssa Thomas played the first 74 minutes of the series before finally subbing out for the first time with 5:31 left in the game and her team up comfortably. She finished with 12 points, 13 rebounds and four assists and helped hold Sparks star Candace Parker to just three points.

CHAIRWOMEN OF THE BOARDS

The 29 rebounds by Connecticut in the first half broke the WNBA playoff mark for a half. Four teams held the previous record of 28, most recently the 2017 Mystics. Connecticut finished the game with 46 to Los Angeles' 24.

''The rebounding is what stands out on the stat sheet tonight,'' Miller said. ''It carried us when we were struggling in the first half.''

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA
Long Sheet

Sunday, September 22

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CONNECTICUT (25 - 11) at LOS ANGELES (23 - 14) - 9/22/2019, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CONNECTICUT is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in road games this season.
CONNECTICUT is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) in a road game where where the total is greater than or equal to 150 this season.
CONNECTICUT is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games after scoring 75 points or more this season.
LOS ANGELES is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points this season.
LOS ANGELES is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games this season.
LOS ANGELES is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in a home game where where the total is greater than or equal to 150 this season.
LOS ANGELES is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games in August or September games this season.
LOS ANGELES is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) on Sunday games over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LOS ANGELES is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15+ games this season.
LOS ANGELES is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 17-29 ATS (-14.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOS ANGELES is 6-5 against the spread versus CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
CONNECTICUT is 6-5 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
8 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (27 - 8) at LAS VEGAS (22 - 14) - 9/22/2019, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 25-46 ATS (-25.6 Units) in road games on Sunday games since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
LAS VEGAS is 14-22 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all games this season.
LAS VEGAS is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) after scoring 75 points or more this season.
LAS VEGAS is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LAS VEGAS is 6-3 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 6-3 straight up against LAS VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons