Monday 9-23-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Long Sheet

Monday, September 23

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHILADELPHIA (79 - 75) at WASHINGTON (85 - 69) - 7:05 PM
ZACH EFLIN (R) vs. PAT CORBIN (L)
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 68-76 (-20.6 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 42-32 (+9.1 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 893-941 (+19.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
PHILADELPHIA is 469-472 (+52.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 85-69 (-4.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 83-71 (-25.1 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 102-94 (-17.5 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 127-104 (-9.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 17-23 (-13.1 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 9-5 (+4.4 Units) against PHILADELPHIA this season
8 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.0 Units)

ZACH EFLIN vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
EFLIN is 3-2 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 3.41 and a WHIP of 1.485.
His team's record is 3-3 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-3. (-0.3 units)

PAT CORBIN vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
CORBIN is 4-2 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 3.38 and a WHIP of 1.145.
His team's record is 6-2 (+2.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-5. (-2.7 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (54 - 101) at NY METS (81 - 74) - 7:10 PM
CALEB SMITH (L) vs. STEVEN MATZ (L)
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 17-54 (-23.3 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 2-20 (-16.5 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
NY METS are 81-74 (-6.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
NY METS are 15-17 (-18.5 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -175 to -250 over the last 3 seasons.
NY METS are 117-119 (-33.4 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NY METS are 145-154 (-53.9 Units) against the money line in home games in September games since 1997.
NY METS are 397-407 (-118.7 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY METS is 11-4 (+4.7 Units) against MIAMI this season
8 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.6 Units)

CALEB SMITH vs. NY METS since 1997
SMITH is 2-0 when starting against NY METS with an ERA of 2.38 and a WHIP of 1.059.
His team's record is 2-2 (+0.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-1. (+1.8 units)

STEVEN MATZ vs. MIAMI since 1997
MATZ is 4-3 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 2.83 and a WHIP of 1.160.
His team's record is 7-4 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 8-2. (+5.8 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ST LOUIS (89 - 67) at ARIZONA (80 - 76) - 9:40 PM
ADAM WAINWRIGHT (R) vs. ALEX YOUNG (L)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 108-132 (-38.0 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1997.
ARIZONA is 80-76 (+3.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ARIZONA is 55-48 (+6.1 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ARIZONA is 37-34 (+7.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ST LOUIS is 89-67 (+9.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 39-25 (+9.7 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
ST LOUIS is 28-20 (+9.5 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
ST LOUIS is 84-73 (+11.0 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 13-2 (+12.1 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday this season.
ST LOUIS is 43-35 (+12.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
WAINWRIGHT is 206-120 (+48.7 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997. (Team's Record)
WAINWRIGHT is 18-6 (+11.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
WAINWRIGHT is 56-32 (+24.8 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 since 1997. (Team's Record)
WAINWRIGHT is 98-61 (+30.7 Units) against the money line in road games since 1997. (Team's Record)
WAINWRIGHT is 18-5 (+13.7 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 since 1997. (Team's Record)
WAINWRIGHT is 37-13 (+21.3 Units) against the money line in September games since 1997. (Team's Record)
ARIZONA is 79-77 (-17.7 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 18-29 (-15.6 Units) against the money line in September games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 52-54 (-15.9 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 2-1 (+1.0 Units) against ARIZONA this season
3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.0 Units)

ADAM WAINWRIGHT vs. ARIZONA since 1997
WAINWRIGHT is 9-4 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 2.56 and a WHIP of 1.198.
His team's record is 9-4 (+5.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-11. (-10.4 units)

ALEX YOUNG vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
No recent starts.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BALTIMORE (51 - 105) at TORONTO (63 - 93) - 7:07 PM
CHANDLER SHEPHERD (R) vs. CLAY BUCHHOLZ (R)
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 98-220 (-74.7 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 24-61 (-24.8 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 45-111 (-33.0 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 20-55 (-28.2 Units) against the money line in September games over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 59-147 (-65.0 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 57-147 (-63.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 28-70 (-30.5 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 48-85 (-31.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 21-39 (-16.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 7-14 (-10.9 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
BUCHHOLZ is 16-30 (-24.0 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 7-9 (+0.2 Units) against TORONTO this season
7 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.5 Units, Under=-0.6 Units)

CHANDLER SHEPHERD vs. TORONTO since 1997
SHEPHERD is 0-0 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 6.75 and a WHIP of 1.250.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.1 units)

CLAY BUCHHOLZ vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
BUCHHOLZ is 10-6 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 4.21 and a WHIP of 1.381.
His team's record is 13-8 (+0.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 12-8. (+3.7 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BOSTON (81 - 74) at TAMPA BAY (92 - 64) - 7:10 PM
JHOULYS CHACIN (R) vs. BLAKE SNELL (L)
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 81-74 (-25.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BOSTON is 34-38 (-19.0 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
BOSTON is 56-49 (-13.5 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
BOSTON is 23-27 (-13.7 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
BOSTON is 43-37 (-17.7 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
BOSTON is 28-41 (-20.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 13-22 (-11.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
TAMPA BAY is 182-136 (+23.8 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 24-7 (+17.0 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 73-70 (+16.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 35-23 (+20.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
SNELL is 19-9 (+12.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
BOSTON is 102-64 (+27.7 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
CHACIN is 51-41 (+13.8 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CHACIN is 25-14 (+12.7 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 11-7 (+3.9 Units) against BOSTON this season
11 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+3.4 Units)

JHOULYS CHACIN vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
CHACIN is 0-1 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 6.43 and a WHIP of 1.571.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.3 units)

BLAKE SNELL vs. BOSTON since 1997
SNELL is 5-3 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 3.02 and a WHIP of 1.283.
His team's record is 5-4 (+1.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-4. (+0.7 units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Dunkel

Monday, September 23


Philadelphia @ Washington

Game 951-952
September 23, 2019 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
(Eflin) 16.174
Washington
(Corbin) 15.253
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 1
10
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
-200
9
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+170); Over

Baltimore @ Toronto

Game 957-958
September 23, 2019 @ 7:07 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
(Shepherd) 13.734
Toronto
(Buchholz) 16.239
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 2 1/2
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
-180
10 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(-180); Under

Miami @ NY Mets

Game 953-954
September 23, 2019 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
(Smith) 14.794
NY Mets
(Matz) 17.645
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Mets
by 3
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Mets
-230
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Mets
(-230); Under

Boston @ Tampa Bay

Game 959-960
September 23, 2019 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston
(Chacin) 15.848
Tampa Bay
(Snell) 14.770
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
-185
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(+165); Under

St. Louis @ Arizona

Game 955-956
September 23, 2019 @ 9:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
St. Louis
(Wainwrght) 17.913
Arizona
(Young) 14.485
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
St. Louis
by 3 1/2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
St. Louis
-145
9
Dunkel Pick:
St. Louis
(-145); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Trends - Monday
Vince Akins

SU Play ON Trend of the Day:

-- The Nationals are 11-0 SU as a favorite of more than 120 after a game as a road favorite in which they scored in at most two separate innings.

SU Play AGAINST Trend of the Day:

-- The Marlins are 0-14 SU after a come-from-behind win.

OU Trend of the Day:

-- The Nationals are 11-0 OU in the first game of a series with no rest as a 140+ favorite after a game as a road favorite in which they had six or fewer hits.

Starter-Based Trend of the Day:

-- The Mets are 7-0 SU with Steven Matz as a home favorite when they lost in his last start. In these six starts, Matz has allowed an average of 2.00 runs in 6.57 inning of work and has a WHIP of 0.90.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MNF - Bears at Redskins
Tony Mejia

Bears at Redskins (-5, 41), 8:15 pm ET, ESPN

Hopefully the guys in stripes relax with the penalties in Landover since points aren’t likely to be plentiful and Tom Brady may be tuned in with his itchy Twitter trigger-finger loaded and ready.

The rumor around the NFL on Sunday was that officiating crews had been told to relax some on calling every single holding penalty, which has been a point of emphasis early on. A fun day of football unfolded with multiple high-scoring games serving as the top buffet offerings, but Monday’s menu item pits a pair of teams that have started slowly and may mix in some inclement weather to deliver an unwatchable product that you have to stay tuned in for presuming the game is at least close.

Washington (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS) hasn’t looked particularly effective since the first half of its Week 1 loss to the Eagles in which it blew a 17-0 lead before avoiding a double-digit loss via touchdown with six seconds left. The defense has given up a pair of 30-point games against Philadelphia and Dallas while Keenum has thrown for 600 yards and five scores without being in position to win a game come fourth quarter.

Chicago (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) counterpart Mitchell Trubisky flopped in the season-opening home loss to Green Bay and made up for a brutal game in Denver by putting the team in position to steal back a 16-14 win they nearly let get away, completing a 25-yard pass to Allen Robinson on 4th-and-15 with a second left to send up a 53-yard field goal from new kicker Eddy Pineiro. That kick has completely changed the narrative regarding the Bears, who have scored a single touchdown in two games. Instead of panic setting in, head coach Matt Nagy is encouraged that Trubisky will improve as his own play-calling does, not to mention thankful that the defense has surrendered just 12 points per game to give Chicago a chance.

Robinson has looked effective as the No. 1 receiver, but the rest of the offense has really struggled and Trubisky has been especially disappointing. Nagy has seen enough of his erratic throws in practice to trust his run game ahead of even short passes, while an offensive line that has dealt with excellent defensive fronts probably won’t catch the break of missing Washington’s top player, defensive tackle Jonathan Allen. Read the injury report portion of this preview below for more on his availability, but the likelihood is that he’ll be out there after missing the majority of snaps thus far following a first-half injury in Philadelphia.

The Bears have yet to allow a point in the third quarter, which is a great sign new coordinator Chuck Pagano has a strong feel for what he inherited personnel-wise from Vic Fangio, who moved on to become head coach in Denver. Between his penchant for exotic blitzes and the trust he puts in his defensive guys to take chances and make plays, the Bears’ alpha group remains the defense, and they’ll need to step up to throw Keenum off his rhythm and take advantage of a young receiving corps led by rookie Terry McLaurin, who has touchdown catches in his first two games as a pro.

Bears fans will get another look at old rival Adrian Peterson, who is back in an RB1 role due to an injury to Derrius Guice but was held to just 25 yards on 10 carries by the Cowboys. Washington needs a vintage performance from Peterson to keep the Bears defense from coming after Keenum, who will again be working behind an offensive line missing long-time anchor Trent Williams. The All-Pro left tackle remains away from the team in a contract dispute, which combined with tight end Jordan Reed’s continued absence due to a concussion, leaves Washington awfully inexperienced on the offensive side of the ball.

Keenum has responded thus far but will be seeing the best defense he’s faced thus far. The worst-case scenario for the ‘Skins would be a double-digit deficit that would allow the Bears to disregard their run defense and come after him. To avoid such a fate, the Greg Manusky-led defensive unit that has the coordinator on the hot seat by coming in 30th in the NFL in yards and points allowed can’t afford to let Trubisky find a flow on the road. The third-year starter taken ahead of league MVP Patrick Mahomes and Houston’s Deshaun Watson went 5-3 on the road last season but threw just five touchdown passes away from Soldier Field and was far less aggressive. We’ll see if Nagy is more willing to take the training wheels off despite his inconsistency thus far in 2019.

Thunderstorms are in the forecast and could potentially be in the mix by halftime, which could turn this into a punt-fest if both coordinators stall out conservatively waiting for the other team to make the first mistake. The total opened as high as 42.5 at various shops but has been bet down to 41 and may continue to dip if money comes in on the 'under.'

ODDSMAKER'S TAKE

Caesars' Senior Oddsmaker Alan Berg provides insights from behind the counter.

"Last Monday the public recognized the mismatch with Browns-Jets and were rewarded. Sharp action was rather light until +7 appeared they were scooped up immediately," said Berg, who you can follow on Twitter @Percentberg. "Tonight's tilt is a bit different as both teams have really struggled out of the gate. Obviously the Bears thus far are a bigger disappointment between the two but the optimism is still reflected in Chicago as a -5.5-point favorite at Caesars.

"We took a highly regarded bet on the Bears at 4.5. The public bettors don't look as eager to back Chicago but most of them will eventually end up on them by kickoff."

Chicago Bears
Projected season win total: 9 (Over -140, Under +120)
Odds to win NFC North (pre-Week 1/current):7/4 to 14/5
Odds to win NFC (pre-Week 1/current): 5/1 to 12/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 12/1 to 25/1

Washington Redskins
Projected season win total: 6 (Over +130, Under -150)
Odds to win NFC East (pre-Week 1/current): 20/1 to 40/1
Odds to win NFC (pre-Week 1/current): 150/1 to 500/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 300/1 to 1000/1

LINE MOVEMENT

Neither the Bears nor Redskins have impressed over their first two games, and odds to win the NFC and Super Bowl at Westgate, but these teams are certainy perceived differently. The Bears have underperformed with Trubisky not taking a step forward yet and the offense struggling, but they're still regarded as dangerous in the fairly wide-open NFC. The perception of the 'Skins is that they'll finish among the lowest of the low in the conference, so odds may not be more lucrative that now if you believe a home upset here will spark a revival few others see coming.

The Packers, Vikings and Lions are off to strong starts in the NFC North, so a setback here would put the Bears at the bottom of a division where they they came into the week even with Minnesota (14/5) and ahead of Detroit (13/2). Green Bay (5/4) is the division favorite. Dallas and Philadelphia opened the week as co-favorites (10/11) to win the NFC East, so congratulations if you got in on the Cowboys before those numbers are adjusted following Sunday's results.

As far as this matchup is concerned, the Bears were installed as a 4.5-point favorite when the Westgate's early numbers were announced, opened the week as a 4-point 'chalk' throughout most shops and was bet up to 5.5 points on Sunday. The number is likely to fluctuate between 4.5 points and 5.5 points up until kickoff.

The money line opened at Chicago -200 at Caesars and has since climbed to -230. If you're in on the home underdog 'Skins to pick up their first victory, they've climbed from +175 to +190.

INJURY CONCERNS

Allen, a former Alabama standout who has quietly become one of the NFL's most formidable young forces up front, has vowed to play after suffering a knee injury and participated in full on Saturday. Safety Montae Nicholson will also go after dealing with a foot issue and tackle Morgan Moses (knee) will try and help make up Williams' absence.

The 'Skins will be missing LB Cassanova McKinzy and may be without corner Quinton Dunbar, so a suspect secondary could be even thinner. CB Fabian Moreau should play but has been bothered by an ankle issue. Veteran CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie landed on IR earlier this week.

The Bears appear to be the healthier group, ruling out only DT Bilal Nichols. Standout safety Eddie Jackson should play through a shoulder issue and nose tackle Eddie Goldman practiced through an oblique injury on Saturday and is expected to play. Pineiro, on the heels of his heroic season-altering make, is questionable after sustaining an oblique injury in the team weight room on Friday. If he can't play, Chicago will have until 3 PM ET on Monday to sign another kicker.

RECENT MEETINGS (Redskins 7-2 SU, 7-2 ATS last nine; OVER 5-3-1)

12/24/16 Redskins 41-21 at Bears (WASH -3, 49)
12/13/15 Redskins 24-21 at Bears (WASH +3.5, 43)
10/20/13 Redskins 45-41 vs. Bears (WASH +1, 47.5)
10/24/10 Redskins 17-14 at Bears (WASH +3, 40)
12/6/07 Redskins 24-16 vs. Bears (WASH -3, 40)
9/11/05 Redskins 9-7 vs. Bears (CHI +6, 33)
10/17/04 Redskins 13-10 at Bears (WASH +1.5, 33.5)
12/21/03 Bears 27-24 vs. Redskins (WASH +4, 35)
12/23/01 Bears 20-15 at Redskins (CHI +1, 33)

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 4 currently has the Bears as a 3-point home favorite against the Vikings. The Redskins were listed as a 2-point underdog against the Daniel Jones' led Giants, but that number figures to change given Saquon Barkley's likely absence.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

By: Rohit Ponnaiya


STREAKING AND SLUMPING STARTERS

STREAKING

Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals (13-9, 3.83 ERA, $576): Wainwright, like most Cardinals starters, has been on fire recently. In September he's gone 4-0 with a 0.33 ERA and a WHIP of 0.93. Tonight, Wainwright and the Cards will look to build on their three-game lead in the NL Central as they head to Arizona to face the Diamondbacks.

St. Louis is a -147 fave on the road but it is worth mentioning that Wainwright has struggled in away starts this year. In 14 games on the road he's 4-6 with a 6.03 ERA and a BAA of .292.

SLUMPING

Clay Bucholtz, Toronto Blue Jays (1-5, 6.48 ERA, $-9): Bucholtz hasn't been effective since making the move to the Great White North but he's been especially poor lately. In September he's gone 0-2 in three starts with an ERA of 9.22 and a BAA of .381.

His last start was against the Orioles last Wednesday and he was lucky to escape with a no-decision after he gave up seven runs in 3 2-3 innings. He gets a rematch against the Orioles today and the Jays are -135 faves at home. With the Over hitting in each of the last three games between these sides, backing the O9.5 today makes a lot of sense.


3 STRIKES

RECOVERING AT A SNELL'S PACE

Tampa Bay's Blake Snell might be ready to pitch some significant innings today after getting only two innings of work last week against the Dodgers. He was very effective in those two innings, striking out four batters and not allowing a single batter to reach base.

Snell is recovering from arthroscopic surgery on his elbow which kept him out of the lineup for about a month and a half. Prior to his surgery he was beginning to recover the form that made him the AL Cy Young winner in 2019, with the Rays going 4-0 over his last four starts while Snell recorded an ERA of 1.64.

Tampa Bay is a -200 favorite at home against the Red Sox tonight. The Rays are 4-0 in Snell's last six starts against the BoSox and are 6-1 in the previous seven meetings in the head to head.

OVER TRENDS ABOUND

Staying with the Red Sox-Rays game, if you're betting the total keep in mind that umpire Chris Conroy has been an absolute Over machine. Games Conroy has called have gone 17-9-1 to the Over this season, including 10-2-1 over his last 13 contests.

The Over has also gone 5-0-1 in the last six meetings between Boston and Tampa Bay. And it just so happens that the O/U is an identical 5-0-1 in Tampa Bay's last six games and Bostons' last six games. The O8.5 might be worth a look.

2019 SEASON TRENDS

As the regular season winds down now is a good time as any to take a look at trends that have made bettors money in 2019:

Best Under Bet - The Cincinnati Reds have been the best Under bet this year, both at home and away. They've gone 90-59-7 to the Under for a rate of 60.4 percent.

Best Over Bet - Another NL Central doormat, the Pirates, have been the most reliable Over bet going 90-60-6 to the Over. They've hit Overs at an even more impressive rate at home going 45-25-4 OU. On the road the Yankees have been the top Over bet, with the Over cashing in 64.3 percent of their away contests.

Best Runline Bet - The Yankees have also been the best team to back on the runline as a favorite. They've gone 75-56 as a fave on the RL.

Best Money Team - The Athletics have been the best money team making bettors $2504 based on $100 units. The Dodgers have been the best money team at home earning $1745, while the Twins have been the best money team on the road banking $2487.

The worst money team? The Tigers who lost bettors $3859 this season. The second worst were the defending champion Red Sox who sit at $-2578.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB's Most Profitable Teams (based on $100 unit per game):

1. A's (94-62) $2504
2. Braves (96-61) $1980
3. Yankees (102-55) $1919
4. Twins (96-60) $1821
5. Dodgers (100-56) $1066
6. Giants (75-81) $1046


MLB's Least Profitable Teams (based on $100 unit per game):

30. Tigers (46-109) $-3859
29. Red Sox (81-74) $-2578
28. Royals (57-100) $-2118
27. Orioles (51-105) $-2070
26. Padres (70-86) $-2036
25. Angels (70-86) $-1829

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Williams

Sep 23 '19, 7:07 PM in 1h
MLB | Orioles vs Blue Jays
Play on: Blue Jays -174 at 1BetVegas

1* on Blue Jays -174

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rocky Atkinson

Sep 23 '19, 7:10 PM in 1h
MLB | Marlins vs Mets
Play on: Mets -1½ -113 at pinnacle

Rocketman Sports FREE MLB play Monday 9-23-19
Miami @ NY Mets (7:10 PM EST)
Play On: NY Mets -1.5 -113 (Smith/Matz) Listed
The Miami Marlins travel to New York to take on the Mets on Monday night. Miami is 54-101 SU overall this year while the NY Mets come in with an 81-74 SU overall record on the season. Caleb Smith is 3-6 with a 4.94 ERA on the road this year. Steven Matz is 7-1 with a 1.97 ERA at home this season. Matz has a 2.83 ERA in his 11 career starts vs Miami. Miami is scoring only 3.8 runs per game overall this year, 3.5 runs per game on the road this season, 3.8 runs per game on grass, 3.9 runs per game at night and 3.7 runs per game against division opponents. Miami is allowing 5.6 runs per game past 7 games overall. NY Mets are allowing only 3.4 runs per game past 7 games overall. NY Mets are 6-0 at home vs Miami this year. We'll recommend a small play on NY Mets on the Runline tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Price

Sep 23 '19, 7:10 PM in 1h
MLB | Red Sox vs Rays
Play on: Rays -1½ +101 at pinnacle

Dave’s Monday Free Play:
1* on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+101)
The Key: The Tampa Bay Rays are 92-64 on the season, yet they are only tied with the Indians for the 2nd wild card spot in the American League. That’s the tough hand they’ve been dealt. They can’t afford to let up now. The Red Sox are 81-74 on the season and have officially been eliminated from the postseason. No team is going to be more disinterested in this final week of the season than the Red Sox. Jhoulys Chacin is 3-11 with a 5.72 ERA in 22 starts this year, and 1-9 with a 6.85 ERA in 11 road starts. Blake Snell is 4-3 with a 2.82 ERA in 10 home starts this year, and 1-0 with a 0.69 ERA in his last 3 outings. Snell is 5-3 with a 3.02 ERA in 9 lifetime starts against the Red Sox, and 4-0 with a 1.16 ERA in his last 5 starts against Boston while yielding only 4 earned runs in 31 innings. Take Tampa Bay on the Run Line.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

Sep 23 '19, 8:15 PM in 2h
NFL | Bears vs Redskins
Play on: Bears -5 -114 at pinnacle

1* Free NFL Pick on Chicago Bears -5 -114
I think we are getting some value here with Chicago laying less than a touchdown against the Redskins. It just feels like because of how bad the offense has looked in the Bears' first two games, the betting public is hesitant to back them.
The one thing you have to keep in mind with the poor offense is they have played a couple of strong defenses in the Packers and Broncos. I think we could see a breakout here for Chicago's offense against a Redskins defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in total defense and the only team with a worse scoring defense is the Dolphins, as Washington is allowing 31.5 ppg.
The other thing is the defense for Chicago has been every bit as good as we expected. Bears rank in the Top 5 in both total defense and scoring defense. Washington just doesn't have the playmakers on the offensive side of the ball to keep up with what their defense is going to allow.
Redskins are also 1-8 ATS under head coach Jay Gruden when playing on Monday Night Football. They are also 1-4 ATS lat 5 at home and 1-5 ATS last 6 vs a team out of the NFC. Bears are 7-2 ATS last 9 off a SU win, 9-3 ATS last 12 vs a team with a losing record and 11-4 ATS last 15 vs a team from the NFC. Take Chicago!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Janus

Sep 23 '19, 8:15 PM in 2h
NFL | Bears vs Redskins
Play on: OVER 41 -105

1* Free Sharp Play on Bears vs Redskins over 41 -105
My money is on the OVER 41 in Week 3 Monday Night Football between the Bears and Redskins. I'm not expecting these two combine for 60 or anything like that, but I don't think it's asking a lot for them to get to 42. Washington is giving up 30+ ppg and I think we could see some defensive scores in this one. OVER is 13-4 in Chicago's last 17 road games vs a team with a losing record and 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two. Bet the OVER 41!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mark Wilson

Sep 23 '19, 8:15 PM in 2h
NFL | Bears vs Redskins
Play on: OVER 41 -105

Free Play on Bears vs Redskins over 41 -105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cole Faxon

Sep 23 '19, 8:15 PM in 2h
NFL | Bears vs Redskins
Play on: Redskins +5½ -105 at Bovada

FREE PLAY on Redskins +5½ -105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Sawyer

Sep 23 '19, 9:40 PM in 3h
MLB | Cardinals vs Diamondbacks
Play on: Cardinals -133 at pinnacle

Take the St. Louis Cardinals with the money-line versus the Arizona Diamondbacks listing both starting pitchers Adam Wainwright and Alex Young. St. Louis (89-67) has won five straight games with their 3-2 win over the Cubs in Wrigley Field yesterday. The Cardinals stay on the road where they have won five straight games. St. Louis has also won 8 of their last 10 opening games to a new series. Arizona (80-76) looks to rebound from a 6-4 loss at San Diego yesterday. The Diamondbacks have lost 5 straight teams with a winning record. They also have lost 5 of their last 6 home games with Young on the hill. Take St. Louis with the money-line listing both starting pitchers. Best of luck — Frank.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee

Sep 23 '19, 9:40 PM in 3h
MLB | Cardinals vs Diamondbacks
Play on: Diamondbacks +136 at 1BetVegas

10* FREE MLB PICK (Diamondbacks +136)
I'll take my chances here with Arizona securing a win at home against the Cardinals. This is a huge letdown spot for St Louis, who are coming off a 4-game sweep of the rival Cubs in Chicago. All 4 wins coming by exactly 1-run and them stealing the final two games in the series in their final at-bat. I also like fading Cardinals' starter Adam Wainwright on the road. He's just 4-6 with a 5.90 ERA and 1.563 WHIP in 14 road starts. Dbacks will counter with Alex Young, who has a 3.38 ERA in 14 starts overall and a 1.15 ERA and 1.213 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Give me Arizona +136!