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Steve Merril
mets/Miami Under 8
mets/Miami Under 8
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Tom Stryker
100% NFL MONDAY NIGHT ELITE INFO WAGER
RedskinsComment
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Northcoast Marquee
Bears Under 41Comment
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Executive 200% Bears -5 (up 225% this week) 6-3 this week lost top play 600% Az StComment
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DR. CHUCK
BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (959) Boston Red Sox at (960) Tampa Bay Rays
Date/Time: Sep 23 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 8 (-118)
View Analysis
Action v. Snell
Joulys Chacin should be the more primary starter tonight yet again for the Sox ( he has gone 2 to 3 innings in each offering with Boston)...with the lefty Snell on the mound for the Rays, with his second stint of the IL for the likely playoff bound Tampa Bay, who will go maybe 3 innings tonight and be on a certain pitch count as they hope to count on him for a significant role if the playoffs include a series!
Chacin has not had a ton of opportunity since coming over from the NL, but what he has done has been middling at best, and does not inspire confidence against a team who needs to shake off a loss yesterday and solidify a W. His metrics have either belied his stats or his stats belie his metrics...so the confusion abounds...he allowed 4 runs to the Giants and boasted a near sub-2.00 xFIP and allowed no runs to the Blue Jays boasting a near 7.00 xFIP.
Neither offensive lineup inspires a ton of confidence lately in the spot against the starter's handedness or away/home split, but the total here is now just a mere 8 runs!
The Red Sox have not gone Under in the last 6 games period...dead even with the Rays in their last 6 games period. The Sox games have averaged nearly 11 runs while the Rays games have averaged over 10 runs. ROI for both teams is a wild 75+%.
Craig Conroy behind the plate to day is a very SOLID Over umpire play...and I like the Sox to continue to be scrappy to end the season with a smidge of a new found spoiler glory. Mookie is back in the lineup and with the away team what I consider a possible live dog I like the Over even more at this tiny number...with all 18 half inning at bats potentially occurring. His games go Over at a 65% clip with a 17 Over 9 Under record this season, with a combined ERA of 5.4 and an average of 11.5+ runs in each game.
Last 40 AL games going back to 8/1 with a total 8.5 or lower (rare occurrence) have gone over 24 and Under just 16 times for a 12% ROI.
All analysis we have here with a solid cushion and the DH for both teams with an AL total scream to plus the umpire that despite the stud Snell getting back into the swing of things...runs will be scored early AND late and we can get to a 4-4 type game before this contest is 2/3 over!
Game: (955) St. Louis Cardinals at (956) Arizona Diamondbacks
Date/Time: Sep 23 2019 9:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Total Under 5.0 (-115)
View Analysis
Wainwright v. Young
Pitching, pitching, and more pitching here tonight in AZ. The Cards clinched a playoff berth and they do have their (ahem) ace(?) on the mound tonight to follow up in a game that is still very important to secure the division and avoid a one game tiebreaker and one game wild card potential situation. Waino is the right man for the job as he has had great success against the Snakes confirmed lineup for tonight...holding them to a .164 BAA and a .189 wOBA and 2.32 FIP! The Dbacks woes have continued and the season has taken a very grim turn....leading to a homestand against the Cardinals that looked a few weeks ago to be an amazing final week lookahead...now the home squad is only not eliminated because the official word cannot be used...but it's basically Over.
On the pro side we have the Cards who certainly have a letdow offense spot, not great against LHP of late...and Alex Young likely allowing this inflated number due to what appears to be some terrible recent starts....but so many of the runs were unearned and belie his metrics. He has allowed 8 runs in the previous 2 starts over not even 8 innings, but merely 2 earned runs.
Jeremy Rehak as the HPU is a great spot for an NL Under with 9 of 13 NL contests going Under and 10 of 14 Unders when a RHP faces a LHP.
This first 5 Under 5 runs is a solid gift and we shall take it and run and move on to Tuesday!Comment
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Which is it. You have Chicago and then Washington
below is is what I saw on another site
Ralph Michaels 4% [NFL] (489) Chicago Bears at (490) Washington Redskins
Time: 8:15 PM EDT Chicago Bears -5.5 (-112)
Analysis:
#489 Chicago -5.5
On the Bears side we have the leagues best D, or at least to 3, while the Redskins have allowed 6.7 yards/play. When looking at the offenses the Skins surprised the Eagles jumping out to a 21-0 lead but gained just 377 the last 6 quarters.With Washington averaging just 38 YPG rushing and 2.5 YPC Case Keenum will be pressured often. Bears offense hasn't looked good but can make a case that GB and Den and a much better duo than the Redskins have faced.
Comment
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RALPH MICHAELS
FOOTBALL PLAYS
Game: (489) Chicago Bears at (490) Washington Redskins
Date/Time: Sep 23 2019 8:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Chicago Bears -4.0 (-110)
View Analysis
#491 4% CHICAGO-4/ now -5-5
I'd like to APOLOGIZE to everyone om my mistake posting this play on Saturday. THE PLAY IS CHICAGO minus the points.
If you bet the other side I would suggest buying it back. Please email me if you do have to buy back and I will have credit issued for the 10% it cost on your wager (ralph@wagertalk.com)
On the Bears side we have the leagues best D, or at least to 3, while the Redskins have allowed 6.7 yards/play. When looking at the offenses the Skins surprised the Eagles jumping out to a 21-0 lead but gained just 377 the last 6 quarters.With Washington averaging just 38 YPG rushing and 2.5 YPC Case Keenum will be pressured often. Bears offense hasn't looked good but can make a case that GB and Den and a much better duo than the Redskins have faced.
BRYAN LEONARD
FOOTBALL PLAYS
Date/Time: Sep 28 2019 --
Betting Line Provider: You must purchase this play in order to view it
Play Rating: 4%
Play: --
View Analysis
--BIG 12 GAME OF THE MONTH
Date/Time: Sep 28 2019 --
Betting Line Provider: You must purchase this play in order to view it
Play Rating: 4%
Play: --
View Analysis
--
BASEBALL PLAYS
DIAMOND GEM GOW
Date/Time: Sep 23 2019 --
Betting Line Provider: You must purchase this play in order to view it
Play Rating: 4%
Play: --
View Analysis
--MARCO D'ANGELO
FOOTBALL PLAYS
MNF BEARS/REDSKINS WINNER
Date/Time: Sep 23 2019 --
Betting Line Provider: You must purchase this play in order to view it
Play Rating: 3%
Play: --
View Analysis
--Date/Time: Sep 28 2019 --
Betting Line Provider: You must purchase this play in order to view it
Play Rating: 4%
Play: --
View AnalysisComment
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Ben Burns
Over Redskin/BearsComment
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Seabass : 400 Mets RL , 300 Red Sox , 400 dbacks game under , 400 2 team teaser redskins and the overComment
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NFL(Bob Balfe)
8:15 PM EST
Rotation #489-490
Bears -5 over Redskins
Bears/Redskins Over 41
Mitch Trubisky has been historically bad in prime time matchups. Could it be he played against good defenses? Who knows, but tonight he is facing a Redskins Defense that is bad. To make matter worse the Redskins are very thin in their already bad secondary. Quinton Dunbar is hurt, Josh Norman has been beaten this year, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie just went on IR, they released Stroman earlier this year and the secondary has been lost. Trey Burton is working his way back to form for the Bears and I believe Trubisky has a rock solid night tonight. The Redskins are not as bad as their record. This team has put up points, but they can’t play four full quarters and have a tendency to give up any lead they have. I think the Bears are an overall better football team and over four quarters should pull away. I am not sold on Jay Gruden being a head coach in this league. The NFL had a conference call on holding penalties over the weekend because the Thursday Night Game was unwatchable. This weekend holding calls were down which is huge for offenses in this league. 41 points is low in the NFL and I would only consider taking an under with two good defenses. Washington’s Defense is not good. I think the Bears can put up 30 points tonight. Chicago played two pretty good defenses to start the year so I am not concerned just yet with them moving the football. I think this is a perfect scenario to play the side and total. Take the Bears and the Over.
MLB
7:10 PM EST
Rotation #959-960
Red Sox +1.5 runs over Rays -120
Cachin/Snell
The Red Sox season is over, but they would love to send Tampa golfing with them.The Rays are in a wild card showdown with the Indians.Boston is a good road team and they can put up runs.On any given night they can simply outscore you.This line is set so high because Tampa has so much to play for while the Red Sox don’t.Tampa is not playing their best baseball when it matters.I like the run line here because we are getting another run right off the bat and the Rays would bat one less time being the home team if they win the game.Take the Red Sox run line +1.5 runs -120.Comment
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Virgobbi Sports 9/23:
Was +5 (+102)Comment
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NFAC
Nfl
Bears 1h under 20.5 -125 500Comment
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TONY FINN
WEEK 3 MNF: REDSKINS v BEARS
Game: (489) Chicago Bears at (490) Washington Redskins
Date/Time: Sep 23 2019 8:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Chicago Bears -3.5 (-108)
View Analysis
PLAY Chicago Bears -3.5 (play is good to -5)
4% confidence rating
(489) Chicago Bears at (490) Washington Redskins
For those of you who are more comfortable knowing where a handicapper stands, without any blurred line, this is rarely and issue with me. Like most, I hang around the pool awhile before testing the water, but when it comes to picking a side or total in a particular matchup I have a feel which prop I will be supporting before digging into routine of breaking down team vs. team and player vs. player.
There is, very little to like about the Washington Redskins, in terms of believing and trusting that the management of the roster can execute a game plan that will get me, you, us the end result we are looking for. In the case of the Redskins it will, on most occasions this 2019 slate, result in adding a handicap to their total game score.
Neither of these two NFL franchises are going to be playing football after the holidays. Not at a professional level. Tossing the Nerf around the yard with the kids, family and friends maybe. Preparing for January postseason. Without question not this current Redskins group. And Chicago is a longshot without the defense scoring a touchdown per game in the team's 14 remaining events.
Chicago is the more capable of the Week 3 Monday night matchup. Chicago took down a spry Broncos group at Mile High last weekend and by all measure the Bears and the Broncos are more alike than either fan base wants to admit.
In short Washington has a middling offensive line. Their No 1 receiver and running back are a combined and the best receiver I write of, Jordan Reed, has been ruled out tonight due to head trauma. In my opinion it is unlikely that Reed will play another NFL snap.
And in defense for those whom are only 29 years old, there is a big difference between real years and NFL years. Reed's 29 years of age in your and my time and space is equal to how I myself feel after having a handful too many Mescals on any given night. The "how" in the equation references the next morning. And I am no spring chicken. How do you expect a 59 year-old with a no-doubt about-it CTE issue to feel after sharing a bottle of cactus juice with friends and family in the Fabulous Vegas open air until 2 a.m? Four hours later on the same patio in the same orbit with coffee pot in one hand and cup in the other?
Let me answer that for you.
Not great but never, and I am not just typing never... I mean NEVER...
Never too old not to remember the good convo and company just hours ago and do so with a smile. Followed by long slow drag of air into my lungs fighting a tinge the anxiety that I won't have the chance to do it again. "It" being spending time with friends, family, kids.. wife of 25-years that has put up with a liberal product of the 60's that would rather return to ponytail and Mexican dirt weed than face another Fox or CNN breaking news story that our president.. this morning alerted all of us who didn't know... that he [Trump] would be issued the Nobel Peace Prize if they awarded it fairly.
The previous paragraph alone should paint the picture of that "deep intake of air" and silent but real sigh of relief - that by the grace of God - I may get another chance to fulfil my desperate desire -- for another day and night to with those friends and family once more. I do my best to "hang" with the friends and family I am describing because they are good people.. far exceeding the percentage of humanity that resides in the blood in my veins. To a man, woman and dog... they are damn good people.
I have rambled on far too long about an analogy I can put in two sentences. I have drawn out the point I am attempting to make in this game analysis.. This squad of Redskins, from coach to practice squad , are a group of good people. They are just not as good a playing football or as young with fresh legs as those on the Chicago sideline.
Before I break the "not as good at football" statement -- straight to the F'ing truth.
Reed, AP, coach Gruden, his staff and all of the Skins that are dressing out when they should be.... enjoying life.
Join me, my family and friends poolside at the Finn residence. Enjoy simple but good food, drink and friendship.. You can root for the Skins while I root to feed my family and have the wherewithal to fund another Monday Night Football gathering...
Reed is an old... damn old 29. My CTE is from 12 years of football. The Washington All-Pro tight end's is from 12 years of football at the highest level and absorbing blows to the head, neck and legs from Herculean warriors whose sole aim in life, at that moment, is to hurt you.
The Redskins running back has exceeded the life expectancy of an NFL'er at his position by nearly a decade. The average NFL running back has a career that spans 4.5 years.
Yes. You read that correctly. Four-and-one-half-years (4.5 yrs).
AP will start as the Skins lead back tonight and do so at 34 years of age.
The Washington Redskins starters tonight are a group of middle-aged used-to-bee’s who are teamed up with a group of back-ups that are as a whole want-to-bees.
The Chicago Bears are the young, stronger and more athletic of the two teams in Landover tonight.
When pitting two teams that are, due to circumstances that are for the most part out of their control, a skill set, that is offensively challenged the group that is most capable of defending their 49 yards of turf is the most likely winner.
The Redskins can't run the football effectively. They are not staffed or equipped to - inside of the 60 minute football time clock - to average more than 3.9 yards per carry. They don't have a receiver on the team that an average NFL fan can name and they are starting their fifth different quarterback in a span of just over 20 games.
Toss this aforementioned football ingredients on the grass at FedEx Field tonight and the results are... equal to that salad you put in your fridge three-days ago.
I believe you get my point.
Terry McWho? Starts on the outside along with Trey Quinn and Paul Richardson Jr. in the slot and opposite side of rookie McWho [McLaurin].
I understand that you all have a deep desire for me to continue breaking down this game with hilarious tid bits and analogies between life and football but I respectively decline. In truth, I am under direct orders from the powers that are at WagerTalk to write less and win more.
This is as good a place to start as any.
When all is said and done tonight in Maryland the Bears will have earned 2019 victory number three. The Skins will still be winless. And without feeling it, knowing it or even believing it Chicago will have dominated the Skins in all phases of tonight's Monday Night Football party.
CHICAGO BEARS -3.5Comment
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FINN TUE EARLY PITCH AL PRIVATE PLAY
Game: (917) Minnesota Twins at (918) Detroit Tigers
Date/Time: Sep 24 2019 6:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-145)
View Analysis
Play on Minnesota Twins -1.5 runs (-145) -- run-line good to -175)
3% confidence rating
LIST PITCHER: Odorizzi vs Action
(917) Minnesota Twins at (918) Detroit Tigers
Full game analsyis posted shortly. Note that this mid-afternoon first pitch represents an opprotunity for the Twins to set the stage for what will in turn be a big game for the Tribe who are scheduled for a 6 p.m. ET first pitch, two hours after the first place Twinkies take the field against the Tigers i nD Detroit.
Game writeup posted shortly
MINNESOTA TWINS -1.5 runsComment
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FINN TUE EARLY PITCH AL PRIVATE PLAY II
Game: (925) Cleveland Indians at (926) Chicago White Sox
Date/Time: Sep 24 2019 8:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-145)
View Analysis
PLAT: Cleveland Indians -1.5 runs (-145) runline play good to -175
3% confidence rating
LIST PITCHERS: Clevinger and Santiago
Game writeup posted shortlyComment
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