Saturday 9-28-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc Lawrence

Sep 28 '19, 12:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | Northwestern vs Wisconsin
Play on: Northwestern +25 -115 at Bovada

Play - Northwestern (Game 113).
Edges - Wildcats: 9-2 SU and 11-0 ATS as conference road dogs … Badgers: 1-4 ATS in this series … With Wisconsin off a huge win over Michigan and Big Ten teams just 3-7 ATS at home in games after beating the Wolverines, we recommend a 1* play on Northwestern. Thank you and good luck as always. We recommend a 1* play on Northwestern. Thank you and good luck as always.

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Kenny Walker

Sep 28 '19, 12:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | Central Michigan vs Western Michigan
Play on: Central Michigan +17 -110 at 1BetVegas

Free Pick on Central Michigan

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Bobby Conn

Sep 28 '19, 12:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | Northwestern vs Wisconsin
Play on: UNDER 47 -115

1* Free Play on Northwestern/Wisconsin under47 -115
After a 35-14 win over #11 Michigan, the #8 Wisconsin Badgers (3-0) are rolling. With a noon kickoff, Wisconsin is set to host the Northwestern Wildcats (1-2) Saturday. The over/under is set at 47.
Northwestern has struggled with a difficult schedule to start the season. A 17-7 loss to #25 Stanford was followed by a win over UNLV before last week’s 31-10 loss to Michigan State. Thus far, the Wildcats are scoring 16 points a game on 305 yards of offense while allowing 21 points a game on 344 yards of offense.
A big reason for Northwestern’s struggles is the play of quarterback Hunter Johnson, who’s thrown for just 308 yards, one touchdown, and four interceptions. Thus far, Johnson is completing just 48.5% of his passes, and that is likely to get worse against a strong Wisconsin defense.
Wisconsin has come out of the gates flying with a pair of dominant shutout victories before whooping up on Michigan. Through three games, the Badgers have allowed a total of 14 points.
On average, Wisconsin is scoring 48 points per game on 507 yards of offense while allowing just five points per game on 171 yards of offense.
With 440 yards and seven touchdowns so far on the season, running back Johnathan Taylor leads the Wisconsin offense. In this matchup, he’s likely to put up the bulk of the points in the game.
Considering Wisconsin’s ability to shut teams out, it’s certainly possible Northwestern will fail to score in this one. In short, this game is all about a mediocre Northwestern offense led by bad quarterback play against one of the best defenses in the nation.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Janus

Sep 28 '19, 12:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | Kansas vs TCU
Play on: Kansas +16 -110 at Mirage

1* Free Sharp Play on Kansas +16 -110
My money is on Les Miles and the Jayhawks to cash in a cover on the road against the Horned Frogs. I don't know why people were giving TCU so much love after beating Purdue with the Boilermakers down their No. 1 QB. I wasn't shocked they were upset last week by SMU. I just think people give this team too much respect because of Gary Patterson. He's a great coach, but he just doesn't have the talent. Kansas is a program on the rise under Miles and he's going to get them to play their hearts out against the upper-tier teams in the Big 12. We already saw KU go on the road and beat BC 48-24 as a 19.5-point dog. Bet the Jayhawks +16!

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Mark Franco

Sep 28 '19, 12:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | Buffalo vs Miami-OH
Play on: Buffalo -2½ -115 at jazz

Buffalo
Buffalo is a little underrated when it come to the line makers in my option.
Buffalo defensive front has held Penn State, Liberty and Temple to 62 yards per game rushing and 2.5 yards per carry in last 3 games. Miami-O has given up 10 sacks in their last two contests.
The Miami (Ohio) Redhawks are ranked 130 on offense, averaging 233.2 yards per game. The Redhawks are averaging 96.2 yards rushing and 137.0 yards passing so far this season.
The Buffalo Bulls are ranked 103 on offense, averaging 358.8 yards per game. The Bulls are averaging 223.0 yards rushing and 135.8 yards passing so far this season.
Look for the Bulls to run early and often and they get the cover!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Price

Sep 28 '19, 12:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | BYU vs Toledo
Play on: Toledo +2½ +100 at YouWager

Dave’s Saturday Free Play:
1* on Toledo +2.5
The Key: The BYU Cougars have to be out of gas. They have played a tougher schedule than anyone through the first 4 weeks of the season. They lost at home to Utah and lost at home to Washington, while also winning in OT against Tennessee on the road and USC at home. They showed signs of wearing down in their 16-45 home loss to Washington last week. Toledo is an up-tempo team that will exploit the fatigue that the Cougars are feeling right now. They are 2-1 with their only loss coming on the road at Kentucky. It’s a Rockets team that is averaging 36.7 PPG and 477 YPG this year. BYU is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 road games after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game. Take Toledo.

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Jack Jones

Sep 28 '19, 12:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | Northern Illinois vs Vanderbilt
Play on: Vanderbilt -6½ -109 at GTBets

Jack’s Free Pick Saturday: Vanderbilt -6.5
The Vanderbilt Commodores are thirsty for their first win of the season. No team has played a tougher schedule than the Commodores thus far. They have faced Georgia and LSU at home, as well as Purdue on the road. They are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS and undervalued right now as a result.
Now the Commodores finally get a breather in their schedule with Northern Illinois coming to town Saturday. This is their best chance for a win in their first five games of the season, and I look for them to take advantage. This SEC team should be favored by more than a touchdown against a middling team from the MAC here tonight.
It’s a Northern Illinois team that is in rebuilding mode after losing head coach Rod Carey to Temple in January. That left the Huskies scrambling to find a replacement, and they settled on former NIU RB Thomas Hammock. He has only been a running backs coach previously in his career.
After beating Illinois State 24-10 in their opener, the Huskies went on there oad and lost at Utah 17-35. Then they were blasted by Nebraska 8-44, a Huskers team that hasn’t looked very sharp up to this point. That was easily Nebraska’s most dominant win this season.
Vanderbilt has really dominated in non-conference play in recent years. They went 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in non-conference play last year with their only loss coming at Notre Dame 17-22 as 13-point dogs. They went 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in non-conference play in 2017 with a 22-point road win at Middle Tennessee and an upset home win over Kansas State. They also went 3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS in non-conference play in 2016 with their only loss coming on the road at Georgia Tech. Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Williams

Sep 28 '19, 12:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | Northwestern vs Wisconsin
Play on: Northwestern +25 -110 at Bovada

1* on Northwestern +25 -110

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Teddy Davis

Sep 28 '19, 12:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | BYU vs Toledo
Play on: Toledo +2½ -102 at betonline

The wrong team is favored here in this game. I like this spot here for Toledo with BYU traveling and playing the early kick off for one. I also think the betting public will be all over the Cougars here as they remember the couple wins over Tennessee and USC. You definitely have to question how much is left in the tank for this BYU team with the other two games being Utah and Washington. Toledo is the best team in the MAC with the best coach in Campbell. Toledo wins this game outright

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Larry Ness

Sep 28 '19, 12:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | Rutgers vs Michigan
Play on: Michigan -28 +100 at betonline

My free play is on Michigan at 12:00 ET.
Michigan hired Jim Harbaugh so he could return the Wolverines to the "top of the college football world." However, that has NOT quite been n the case. Harbaugh is 0-4 against Ohio State and Michigan's 35-17 loss ('ass kicking') at Wisconsin was just another in a growing list of Michigan failures on the road against ranked opponents in Harbuagh's tenure. The Wolverines fell behind 28-0 at the half in Madison and when Michigan finally scored (with just 2:03 remaining in the third quarter), Wisconsin had already scored 35 points. The Michigan defense was shredded for 487 yards, including a WHOPPING 359 on the ground (6.3 YPC). Michigan returns to Ann Arbor Saturday to take on Rutgers, which checks in at 1-2 (0-1 Big Ten). Rutgers opened the 2019 season with a 48-21 win over UMass, ending an 11-game losing streak but has followed with a 30-0 loss at Iowa and a 30-16 home loss to BC.
The Scarlet Knights joined the Big Ten in 2014 and after going 8-5 (3-5 in Big Ten) that first season, have lost 32 of their last 36 conference games, including 13 in a row heading into Saturday's contest. There was some good news coming out of last weeks loss to BC, as QB Artur Sitkowski had one of the best games of his young career. The sophomore QB completed 23-of-33 passes for 304 yards and a touchdown. Head coach Chris Ash revealed he will get the start against Michiga, as McLane Carter remains in the concussion protocol. Michigan QB Shea Patterson has looked uncomfortable in the team's new offense and both of his TD passes came after Michigan was down 35-0. He finished 14-of-32 for 219 yards with one interception plus lost a fumble. Backup QB Dylan McCaffrey went 3-of-8 for 40 yards before he was knocked out of the game by a high hit that drew a targeting penalty. He we will miss Saturday's game with a concussion.
Here's the bottom line. Rutgers is simply in the WRONG place at the WRONG time. Maybe Ash could have counted on Harbaugh to "go easy" on him but NOT coming off last week's HUGELY disappointing 18-point loss at Wisconsin. Harbaugh got to Michigan in 2015 and the year before, Rutgers beat Michigan 26-24. Harbaugh's 'blasted' the Scarlet Knights in each of his first four meetings, averaging a WHOPPING 51.0 PPG. Lay the "big number."
Good luck...Larry

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ray Monohan

Sep 28 '19, 3:30 PM in 6h
NCAA-F | Virginia vs Notre Dame
Play on: Virginia +11½ -110 at betonline

Virginia +11 (+11.5 if you can grab it still)
Saturday at 3:30 ET on NBC we get the Virginia Cavaliers vs. the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Virginia is 4-0 (2-1-1 ATS) and Notre Dame are 2-1 and (2-1 ATS). The over under for this matchup is set at 48.5. There two haven't played since 2015 so there's not much of a recent record to go off of.
Things weren't looking to good last week for Virginia vs. OD as they went down by 17 early. The home team managed to dominate the final half of play to improve to 4-0 for the first time since 2004. One thing I really love about this matchup is that even if the Irish get out to an early lead we know that Virginia won't get rattled. They have two nice comebacks already this year, vs. OD and another versus Florida State. They can play under pressure.
Notre Dame is good at home. I get that, but for my money on Saturday the key matchup is Irish QB Ian Book vs. the Cavaliers stingy defense. UV has an above average front 7, and I'm not sure Book will have as much time as he's accustomed to. 11 is a lot of points and I don’t feel like Vegas is giving the UV defense the respect they deserve. This game will be closer.
I’ve spotted a few trends to consider. The Cavaliers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game, they're also 13-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Lastly they're 5-0 SU in their last 5 games.
With Notre Dame's games going under in 5 of their last 6 I can see this one being a tight game. I like a tough underdog, and Virginia fits that bill, plus their D isn't just average, they'll come to play. Now I'm not saying we're on upset watch here, but the Irish faithful will be biting their finger nails in the 4th qtr. I’m on the Cavaliers grabbing the points in this one as I see a 3-5 point game here in my projections.
Back Virginia.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Saturday 5* Free College Football ATS Play

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee

Sep 28 '19, 3:30 PM in 6h
NCAA-F | USC vs Washington
Play on: USC +10½ -105 at betonline

10* FREE NCAAF PICK (USC +10.5)
I'll take my chances here with USC getting double-digits against the Huskies. Public is all over Washington, as the Trojans are down to 3rd string QB Matt Fink. I don't think it's a big deal. FInk was outstanding against Utah last week, throwing for 351 yards and 3 scores. He averaged 11.7 yards/completion and completed 70%. That was against a Utah defense some felt was even stronger than the Huskies.
Washington rolled BYU after the Cougars hung close against some other big teams. I just think they caught BYU at the ideal time. Cougars didn't have anything left in the tank. I still got my concerns with the Cougars offense. They are averaging 191 rushing yards on 4.8 yards/carry. Looks great, but that's basically what the teams they have played are giving up (187 ypg and 4.8 yards/carry).
Same thing with the defense. Washington is only giving up 3.7 yards/carry against the run, but the teams they have played are only averaging 3.4 yards/carry. With the talen USC has at the wide receiver position, I think they will be able to have a balanced attack. If the Trojans defense gives the Huskies any kind of problems, they won't just cover, they will win this game outright. Give me USC +10.5!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Ryan

Sep 28 '19, 3:30 PM in 6h
NCAA-F | Iowa State vs Baylor
Play on: Iowa State -3 +102 at pinnacle

IOWA STATE VS BAYLOR
3:30 PM EST, SEP. 28, 2019
MCLANE STADIUM, WACO, TEXAS
5-STAR BET ON IOWA STATE
This situational query has earned an outstanding 40-12 ATS record over the last 10 seasons for 77% winning bets. The query instructs us to bet on a road team that is clicking on all cylinders and gaining an average of at least 6.2 yards-per-play, after gaining at least 525 yards in their previous game and are no facing an opponent with an excellent defense that has allowed an average of 4.2 yards-per-play.
The machine learning summary projects that both teams will score at least 28 points and that ISU will gain a minimum of 5.7 yards-per-play. In past ISU games where they have met or exceeded these projections has translated into an outstanding 13-5 ATS for 72% winning bets and covering by an average of 8 points.

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Mark Wilson

Sep 28 '19, 3:30 PM in 6h
NCAA-F | Virginia vs Notre Dame
Play on: UNDER 50½ -110

Free Play on Virginia vs Notre Dame under50½ -110
18th-ranked Virginia (4-0) goes up against 10th-ranked Notre Dame (2-1). Virginia is only allowing 17 points a game and two of their opponents were ACC opponents in Pitt and Florida State. Notre Dame is allowing just 18 points a game and managed to hold an elite Georgia team to just 23 points last week. Both team in this one have solid defenses and this should be a hard-fought low-scoring game. Notre Dame knows they can't afford another loss and Virginia is looking to keep their slim CFP hopes alive. Neither team will be overly aggressive in this one. This should be a methodical game that will be determined by who plays the better defense. Regardless of who wins, we shouldn't see too many points. UNDER 50.5 is the way to go in this game.

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Cole Faxon

Sep 28 '19, 3:30 PM in 6h
NCAA-F | Wake Forest vs Boston College
Play on: UNDER 71½ -110

FREE PLAY on Wake Forest/Boston College under 71½ -110