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Paul Leiner
Three NFL Picks 9/29
100* Texans -4.5
100* Rams -9
100* Over 48 Seahawks/Cardinals
Three NFL Picks 9/29
100* Texans -4.5
100* Rams -9
100* Over 48 Seahawks/Cardinals
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Gridiron Angles - Week 4
By Vince Akins
NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Buccaneers are 10-0 ATS (10.75 ppg) since Nov 20, 2005 as a road dog of more than three points coming off a home game where they scored at least 24 points.
NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Raiders are 0-10-1 ATS (-9.77 ppg) since Dec 08, 2016 after a game in which less than 22 percent of their first downs were from third down conversions.
TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- The Buccaneers are 0-10 OU (-11.40 ppg) since Oct 05, 2017 when Jameis Winston threw at least two touchdown passes last game.
NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Vikings are 0-10-1 OU (-9.23 ppg) since Nov 16, 2014 as a dog coming off a game where they scored more points than expected.
NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Bears are 13-0 OU (12.35 ppg) since Oct 14, 2007 coming off a road win where they gained less than 300 total yards.
NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Bills are 11-0 ATS (+8.64 ppg) on turf fields off a home win in which they had more first downs than points.Comment
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Sunday Blitz - Week 4
Kevin Rogers
GAMES TO WATCH
Browns at Ravens (-6 ½, 45) – 1:00 PM EST
The AFC North race was expected to include three teams fighting it out for the top spot, but the Steelers are basically done at 0-3 and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger out for the season. The Browns (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) had elevated expectations with several key additions in the offseason, but Cleveland has stumbled with home losses to the Titans and Rams. Cleveland’s offense has produced 13 points in each of its two losses, while quarterback Baker Mayfield was limited to 195 yards in last Sunday’s defeat to Los Angeles.
The Ravens (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) are by no means running away with the division, but Baltimore can put itself in a great position with a victory on Sunday. After blowing out the hapless Dolphins in Week 1, the Ravens failed to cover as double-digit favorites in a home win over the Cardinals to improve to 2-0. However, Baltimore lost to Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium for the second consecutive season as the Chiefs held off the Ravens, 33-28 as 4 ½-point favorites. Mark Ingram rushed for three touchdowns, but Baltimore yielded over 500 yards of offense to Kansas City as the Ravens suffered their first underdog loss with Lamar Jackson starting at quarterback in four tries.
Last season, these division rivals played to a pair of games decided by a total of five points. Cleveland held off Baltimore as three-point home underdogs, 12-9 in overtime, while the Ravens edged the Browns in the season finale, 26-24 as seven-point favorites. Baltimore has won six of the past seven matchups with Cleveland since 2015, as the Ravens had covered five straight meetings before Cleveland cashed twice in 2018.
Best Bet: Ravens 21, Browns 17
Patriots (-7, 41 ½) at Bills – 1:00 PM EST
It’s no surprise that New England (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) has started with an unblemished mark through three weeks. The Patriots cruised past the Steelers and Dolphins in the first two weeks, while yielded a total of three points. New England jumped out to a commanding 30-0 lead last Sunday against the banged-up Jets, but New York picked up the backdoor cover by scoring a special teams and defensive touchdown. The Pats failed to cash as hefty 20 ½-point favorites, but New England limited New York to a shade over 100 yards of offense to grab their 18th consecutive victory at Gillette Stadium.
The Bills (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) were expected to improve this season, but not many believed this team would be undefeated towards the end of September. Buffalo has been carried by its defense so far as the Bills swept the New York squads at Met Life Stadium the first two weeks of the season, while edging the Bengals, 21-17 in Week 3. Buffalo failed to cover for the first time this season as 5 ½-point favorites, but veteran Frank Gore found the end zone in the final two minutes of regulation to lift the Bills to a 3-0 start, as the team rushed for 175 yards against Cincinnati.
This series has been all Patriots over the years as New England has won 28 of the last 31 meetings. That is not a misprint, as two of those wins by the Bills came with Patriots’ star quarterback Tom Brady suspended in one game and playing a handful of series in a meaningless Week 17 contest in 2014. New England is riding a seven-game winning streak at New Era Field as five of those victories by the Patriots have come by 10 points or more in this stretch.
Best Bet: Patriots 27, Bills 17
Vikings at Bears (-1 ½, 38) – 4:25 PM EST
Following Green Bay’s loss to Philadelphia on Thursday night, the winner of Sunday’s contest at Soldier Field will be tied for first place with the Packers atop the NFC North. The Vikings (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) rebounded from a five-point defeat at Green Bay in Week 2 to pound the Raiders last Sunday, 34-14 to easily cash as 8 ½-point favorites. Minnesota jumped out to a 21-0 lead and never looked back as the Vikings rushed for 211 yards, including 110 yards and a touchdown from Dalvin Cook.
The Bears (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) are back at home following a pair of road victories over the Broncos and Redskins, who enter Week 4 with a combined record of 0-6. Following the close-shave win at Denver in Week 2, Chicago cruised past Washington last Monday night, 31-15 to cash as five-point favorites for its first cover of the season. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky finally put together a solid performance with three touchdown passes, while the mighty Bears’ defense created five takeaways as Chicago has allowed 39 points in three games.
Chicago swept Minnesota last season for the first time since 2011 as the Bears have covered four consecutive meetings with the Vikings. The Bears held off the Vikings, 25-20 at Soldier Field to barely hit the OVER of 44 thanks to 28 points by the two teams in the fourth quarter. Chicago dominated Minnesota in the season finale, 24-10 as six-point road underdogs, marking the first road win for the Bears in Minneapolis since 2011.
Best Bet: Vikings 19, Bears 16
BEST TOTAL PLAY
OVER 47 ½ - Panthers at Texans
The Panthers’ offense exploded in last Sunday’s 38-20 victory against the Cardinals as Kyle Allen will make his second consecutive start at quarterback. Carolina visits Houston as the Texans rallied past the Chargers last Sunday by outscoring Los Angeles, 20-3 in the second half. Houston has hit the UNDER in two straight games, but the Texans are 6-1 to the OVER since 2016 off a road victory. Carolina is 4-1 to the OVER since 2017 also off an away win as this total has jumped from 46 to 47 ½.
TRAP OF THE WEEK
The Titans looked like world beaters in a Week 1 rout of the Browns, but Tennessee has gone backwards the last two weeks by losing to Indianapolis and Jacksonville. The Falcons have surprisingly lost seven consecutive home games to AFC opponents, while going 3-7 ATS in their last 10 opportunities as a favorite. Tennessee has not been impressive offensively in the last two weeks, but the Titans have fared well in the underdog role since Mike Vrabel took over as head coach by going 7-4 ATS, while they are 3 ½-point ‘dogs on Sunday.
BIGGEST LINE MOVE
The Seahawks opened as four-point road favorites at Arizona when the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas released the numbers last Sunday. Seattle has moved up to 5 ½-point favorites as the Seahawks have gone 5-0-1 in the past six visits to Glendale. The Cardinals covered last season in both meetings against the Seahawks, as Arizona owns a 2-0 ATS record in the underdog role in 2019.
BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW
Only two teams have not covered a game this season as they meet in Miami on Sunday. The Chargers own an 0-2-1 ATS mark, while the Dolphins are 0-3 ATS and are listed as a double-digit underdog for the third straight week. In fact, Miami is 0-6 ATS in its past six regular season games with its last cover coming in the “Miami Miracle” against New England last December in a 34-33 win as a 9 ½-point underdog.Comment
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Vegas Money Moves - Week 4
By Micah Roberts
Las Vegas sportsbooks got Week 4 of the NFL season started on a high note with the Philadelphia Eagles earning a 31-27 road win at Green Bay (-3.5, 45.5) on Thursday night.
“We had a great night with the Eagles winning,” CG Technology sportsbook director Tony DiTomasso said. “It was one of our better games of the year.”
The isolated night games have been big trouble traditionally for the books, evident last Sunday when the Rams defeated the Browns 20-13 in the Week 3.
Let’s take a closer look at some of the games that have been receiving the most attention in Week 4.
“It’s been slow so far this week, not a lot of things happening so far,” DiTomasso said Friday afternoon. “We had a $30,000 bet on the Chiefs laying -6.5, but it wasn’t a wise guy.
The Chiefs opened as six-point road favorites at Detroit and this matchup has the highest total of the week at 54.5. The Chiefs have gone 8-2-1 against the spread in their last 11 road games and they’ve gone 'over' the total in 16 of their last 21 games outside of Arrowhead.
As expected, the Chiefs-Over combination will be an extremely popular two-team parlay and two-team teaser this week.
“We also had a bet on the Giants at -3 (-105) against the Redskins,” DiTomasso said.
People are believing in rookie quarterback Daniel Jones in his home debut after he made a sensational first impression leading the Giants to a 32-31 road win at Tampa Bay last week.
Caesars Palace sportsbook director Jeff Davis says sharp action at his books have taken the Giants, Saints (they took +3, it’s +2.5 now) and Seahawks.
The Seahawks have moved from -4 up to the dead number of -5.5 so it won’t take much to push this game to -6. The Seahawks come off an embarrassing home loss to the Saints who were playing without QB Drew Brees.
Make a note that the underdog has gone 7-0-1 ATS in the last eight meetings of this NFC West rivalry.
Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay says their top sharp plays this week are the Giants, Raiders (+6.5 at Colts), and Buccaneers (+9.5 at Rams).
“The wise guys are also on the Vikings this week,” DiTomasso said.
The Vikings were getting +2.5 at Chicago and it’s down to +1.5 as of Friday afternoon.
“The top parlay games of the week in ticket counts are the Chiefs, Patriots, Cowboys and Ravens,” DiTomasso said. “We also took a $10,000 bet on the Patriots to make us about $25,000 high on them so far.”
Caesars’ Davis says their top public parlay plays are the Patriots, Chiefs and Ravens as well. Kornegay says the Chiefs, Patriots and Cowboys would be their worst case 3-team parlay cashing.
The Chiefs are one of three teams to be a perfect 3-0 against-the-spread so far along with the Cowboys and Rams, so they figure to be popular choices, but the Ravens have gone just 1-2 ATS meaning that the public love for the Ravens is more about hating the Browns.
“The public has turned quickly on the Browns,” DiTomasso said. “That fourth down and nine running play on Monday night for all to see gave a bad impression for a lot of people I think.”
The 1-2 Browns came into the season with loads of hype and became one of the biggest Super Bowl risks for the sportsbooks, but the SuperBook has circled back past their original opening 20-to-1 odds to win number.
As of Monday, JK and his staff have pushed the Browns up to 60-to-1 to hoist the SB54 Trophy in Miami next February.
Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director that has been covering the sports betting industry for the last 15 years.Comment
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Total Talk - Week 4
By Joe Williams
It's time for Week 4 in the National Football League, and we're hitting the quarter pole already. Where has the time gone? We're getting a great idea of who the contenders and pretenders are, especially in terms of effectiveness on offense and defense.
2019 TOTAL RESULTS - GAME & HALVES
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 3 10-6 9-7 8-7-1
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 20-28 19-28-1 26-21-1
The public scored big in Week 3, sinking books with a 10-6 over record. It was a nice rebound for the masses after watching Joey Public get killed in Week 2, with the under hitting in 13 of 16 outings. Through 48 games, the under sits at 28-20 (41%).
Savvy bettors playing the halves noticed a scoring spike in the first 30 minutes as the 'over' went 9-7 in the first-half last weekend. The high side went 8-7-1 in the second-half and that's been a solid lean overall (26-21-1) for 'over' bettors chasing points this season.
Division Bell
We had just two divisional battles in Week 3, and the total results split. The New York Jets-New England Patriots (43) game likely should've gone under, but with 21 seconds left in the third quarter the Jets came up with a fumble recovery in the end zone for a touchdown. Then, they had a pick-six of 61 yards with 6:23 to go in the game to flip the result. The Jets scored zero points, but the Patriots backup on offense coughed up 14 points, prompting QB Tom Brady to be re-inserted into the game after backup Jarrett Stidham relieved him.
DIVISIONAL GAME RESULTS WEEK 3
Tennessee at Jacksonville Under (38) Jacksonville 20, Tennessee 7
N.Y. Jets at New England Over (43) New England 30, N.Y. Jets 14
Line Moves and Public Leans
Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 4 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.
Washington at N.Y. Giants: 46 to 48 ½
Seattle at Arizona: 48 to 46
Dallas at New Orleans: 45 to 47
Carolina at Houston: 46 to 47 ½
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: 43 ½ to 45
Cleveland at Baltimore: 46 ½ to 45
New England at Buffalo: 44 to 42 ½
Oakland at Indianapolis: 44 to 45 ½
Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 4 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.
Minnesota at Chicago: Under 88%
New England at Buffalo: Under 82%
Washington at N.Y. Giants: Over 81%
Dallas at New Orleans: Over 76%
Carolina at Houston: Over 70%
Seattle at Arizona: Over 69%
There is also a heavy lean on for the 'over' (64 percent) in the Cincinnati-Pittsburgh matchup on Monday Night Football, and heavy lean on the 'under' in Tennessee-Atlanta (66 percent) battle on Sunday.
Handicapping Week 4
WEEK 3 TOTAL RESULTS
Year Over/Under
Divisional matchups 1-1
NFC vs. NFC 5-0
AFC vs. AFC 1-2
AFC vs. NFC 3-3
Week 4 is kicked off with a high-scoring Thursday night battle, as the Philadelphia-Green Bay matchup went 'over'. Through 11 primetime battles the 'under' is now 8-3, but the 'over' has connected in the last two games played at night.
Taking a look at the divisional battles for Week 4:
Cleveland at Baltimore: The Browns and Ravens square off in the first divisional game for both sides. The Browns entered the season with a lot of hype due to massive additions on offense. However, the new-look offense has struggled to gain any momentum through the early going. They're averaging just 16.3 points per game through three contests, although they did manage 23 points in their only road game, a win against the Jets on Monday Night Football back in Week 2. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has passed for more touchdowns in his short career on the road, and he's been sacked less too. In eight road starts under Mayfield, the Browns are averaging 24.3 PPG.
The Ravens are having no such problems on offense, averaging 36.7 points per game to rank No. 1 in the NFL. They're also No. 1 in total yards per game (511.7) and No. 1 in rushing yards (216.7) per contest. They're also No. 7 in passing yards per outing, posting 295.0 yards per game through the air. Defensively, they have only been so-so, coughing up 350.7 total yards per game, giving up 290.3 passing yards to check in 26th. Most of that is skewed, however, as teams have passed frequently to get back into the game. Baltimore has shut down the run, allowing just 60.3 rushing yards per game to check in second in the NFL. The under has hit in four of the past five in this series, and six of the past eight in Charm City.
Other important divisional games with important trends to note:
Washington at N.Y. Giants: The Redskins offense has been a train wreck, posting 336.3 total yards per game to rank 23rd in the NFL, and they're putting up a dismal 48.0 yards per game on the ground to check in 30th. That's not good. They're still managed to post 21.0 PPG, good for 21st in the NFL. Defensively, the 'Skins have been a wreck, as well, ranking 25th with 402.7 yards per game, and they're yielding 31.3 PPG, second-worst in the NFL. Make a note that Washington is the only team to see the over cash in all three of its games.
The Giants gave rookie QB Daniel Jones his first NFL start and it went well. Granted, if the Bucs had a kicker, the G-Men and their rookie go home with a loss in Tampa last week. However, the kicker shanked it, and 'Danny Dimes' is being hailed as the second coming for Big Blue. He passed for 336 yards and two touchdowns while running for 28 yards and a pair of scores. It will be interesting to see what the rookie does in his first home start, and his first game against a divisional opponent. However, while Jones was the good news from last week's road win, the bad news is RB Saquon Barkley (ankle) is expected to miss several weeks due to a high-ankle sprain. The Giants defense is ranked 31st in total yards (460.3) and that combined with Washington's unit is one of the main reasons this total has been pushed up.
Minnesota at Chicago: The trends all point to the 'under' for both the Vikings and the Bears. the under has cashed in 23 of the past 30 divisional battles for the Vikings, while hitting in four of the past five against winning teams and four straight on the road. The Bears have hit the under is four straight divisional battles, while cashing in four straight at home. They're also 6-2 in the past eight at home agaisnt teams with a winning road mark.
Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky finally showed a little consistency, hooking up with WR Taylor Gabriel (concussion) for three touchdowns in the second quarter alone in Week 2 at Washington. However, Gabriel was lost to a concussion, and remains in the protocol. They're still 29th in total yards (275.0), 29th in passing yards (178.7) and 26th in the league in points scored (16.7). Defensively the Bears have locked it down, giving up just 13.0 PPG to rank second in the league, and they're just fifth in rushing yards allowed (68.7). Will the unders continue?
Seattle at Arizona: The 'over' has connected in five straight divisional games for the Seahawks, and they're fairly consistent overall on offense .They're ninth in total yards (390.3), while going 10th in passing yards (280.0) and points scored (25.3). The over has hit in each of the past two for the Seahawks, including a 28-26 win at Pittsburgh in their only road trip of the season so far.
Cardinals QB Kyler Murray had some growing pains, and head coach Kliff Kingsbury's offense isn't the up-tempo, high-scoring juggernaut that was expected. In fact, they're 26th in the NFL with 328.0 total yards per game, while middle of the road in passing (243.7), ranking 15th. The 'over' is 2-0 in their two home games so far, averaging 23.5 PPG while yielding 32.5 PPG. The last three meetings from the desert between this pair have watched the 'under' go 3-0.
Heavy Expectations
There are four games listed with spreads of a touchdown or greater for Week 4, with one road team listed as a double-digit favorite. The totals are ranging from 42 to 54 in these contests and cashing a total could come down to which teams lay off the gas in the second-half.
L.A. Chargers at Miami (1:00 p.m. ET): The Chargers look to add to the woes of the Dolphins. Miami was a little more competitive at Dallas last week, if you count 31-6 as more competitive. That's how bad things have been for the Dolphins. They have managed a total of 16 points, hitting the under in their past two. The Chargers have also struggled a bit on offense, averaging 20.0 PPG while giving up just 21.3 PPG. You can expect another lopsided score, as they're more than a two-touchdown favorite in South Florida. Second-half bettors or Live Betting enthusiasts might want to jump in on the final 30 minutes of this matchup with the Chargers averaging 3.3 PPG in the final two quarters of the season while Miami is at 0 PPG.
New England at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. ET): The defending champs hit the road for Western New York, a place they have fared very well over the years. However, they're facing a new-look Bills team which enters the game with an identical 3-0 record and huge expectations these days. These aren't the same Bills which have been pushed around by the Pats in the past.
The Patriots might have their most powerful offense in years, though, and that's a scary thing. They're averaging 35.3 PPG through three outings, including a 43-0 win on the road in Week 2 in their only road outing, albeit against the sorry Dolphins. New England is averaging 311.3 passing yards to rank second, and they're second in the NFL behind the Ravens in scoring. While all of that is good for the over, the defense has been on fire. They're No. 1 in the NFL in total yards (199.0), passing yards (162.3), rushing yards (36.7) and points allowed (5.7). The under has cashed in seven of the past nine inside the division for the Pats, while going 5-2 in the past seven meetings in this series.
Kansas City at Detroit (1:00 p.m. ET): The unbeaten Lions (2-0-1 SU) have hit the over in two of their three games, both on the road, while grinding out a 13-10 win and under in their only previous home game against the Chargers in Week 2. The offense has been on fire for the Chiefs, as expected, going for 28 or more points in all three games, including 34.0 PPG in their two road contests so far. These Lions have been surprisingly effective on defense, but this will obviously be their biggest test of the season. As far as trends go, Kansas City has watched the 'over' go 8-2 in their last 10 road matchups. However, Detroit is on a 6-0 'under' run its last six at Ford Field.
Tampa Bay at L.A. Rams (4:05 p.m. ET): The Bucs could easily be going into this game at 2-1, but a missed kick at the buzzer meant a tough loss. They were able to score 31 points, though, the most of the season and their first 'over'. The Rams struggled in Cleveland on SNF despite the fact the Browns were missing their entire secondary. The Bucs have yielded 25.7 PPG through their three games, and that makes the 'over' rather attractive in this one. The Rams have racked up 25.7 PPG on offense, while the defense has allowed just 11.0 PPG in the past two after a 30-27 win in Week 1.
Under the Lights
Dallas at New Orleans (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): In the Sunday Night Football game, the Cowboys and Saints promised to be a high-flying affair. QB Drew Brees went down, and the offense was expected to struggle. However, the Saints adjusted quickly in Seattle last week, posting a 33-27 win with QB Teddy Bridgewater leading the charge. The 'over' is 5-0 in the past five for Dallas against NFC foes, but the under is 5-1 in the past six on the road against teams with a winning home record. The under is 8-2 in the past 10 against NFC foes for the Saints, and 10-3-1 in the past 14 at home against teams with a winning home mark.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Monday Night Football game this week is a bit of a stinker, as two 0-3 teams face off. The Bengals have really missed WR A.J. Green, as the offense has averaged just 18.0 PPG, while hitting the 'under' in each of their two road games this season. The Steelers have struggled mightily on both sides of the ball, and they're figuring out their identity with QB Ben Roethlisberger (elbow) done for the season, so QB Mason Rudolph gets his feet wet. Pittsburgh is averaging 16.3 PPG through three games, hitting the 'under' twice in three tries. With 'Big Ben' under center last season, Pittsburgh put up some crooked numbers in night games as it averaged 32.3 PPG and the 'over' went 3-1 in those games.
Fearless Predictions
I took a bit of a beating again in Week 3, as the net loss was (-$220). The Rams-Browns game ruined what would've been a nice teaser win. That's (-$660) for the season, too. We'll look to improve heading into Week 4. As CD (see below) would say, always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Jacksonville-Denver 37 ½
Best Under: Seattle-Arizona 48
Best First-Half Over: L.A. Chargers-Miami 22 ½
Three-Team Total Teaser (+7, +135)
Over 30 ½ Jacksonville at Denver
Over 43 Tampa Bay at L.A. Rams
Over 40 Dallas at New Orleans
CD's Best Bets
Unfortunately for Chris David, he posted his second straight 1-2 week in his "Best Bet" selections on the "Bet And Collect" podcast last week and he now sits at 5-4 on the season.
For this week's Podcast, he offers up his opinion on every game with Kevin Rogers plus he provides his top selections on the below games:
Tennessee at Atlanta
Minnesota at Chicago
Cleveland at BaltimoreComment
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WNBA Finals Cheat Sheet
The 2019 WNBA Finals will begin on Sunday Sept. 29 as the Connecticut Sun and Washington Mystics meet in a best-of-five series.
Oddsmakers at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened the Mystics as minus-300 favorites (Bet $100 to win $33) while the Sun have a return of plus-260 (Bet $100 to win $260).
Finals Schedule
Game 1 – Connecticut at Washington (Sunday, Sept. 29, 3:05 p.m. ET)
Game 2 – Connecticut at Washington (Tuesday, Oct. 1, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Game 3 – Washington at Connecticut (Sunday, Oct. 6, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Game 4 – Washington at Connecticut (Tuesday, Oct. 8, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Game 5 – Connecticut at Washington (Thursday, Oct. 10, 8:00 p.m. ET)
(1) Washington vs. (2) Connecticut
2019 Regular Season Meetings
May 25 – Connecticut (-5.5) 84 vs. Washington 69 (Under 166 ½)
June 11 – Connecticut (-3) 83 vs. Washington 75 (Under 166 ½)
June 29 – Washington (-7) 102 vs. Connecticut 59 (Under 161 ½)
Playoff Form
-- Connecticut won and covered all three matchups against Los Angeles in the semifinals as it pulled off the three-game sweep.
-- The Sun won by an average of 19 points per game and the defense only allowed 66.3 PPG, which helped the ‘under’ cash in every decision.
-- Washington advanced past Las Vegas in four games of the semifinals. Despite posting a 3-1 record in that series, the Mystics went 1-3 against the spread for bettors.
-- The Mystics averaged 94.3 PPG in their wins and were held to 75 in the lone loss. The ‘over’ went 3-1.
ATS Numbers
-- The home team won and covered all three encounters between the pair this season, with the results coming by an average of 33 PPG.
-- Connecticut owns a 17-19-1 ATS mark this season.
-- At home, Connecticut has gone 17-2 straight up and 12-7 ATS.
-- On the road, the Sun struggled to a 5-12-1 ATS mark for bettors despite a 9-9 record.
-- The point-spread hasn’t matter when the Sun have been listed as an underdog this season. Connecticut has gone 3-3 both SU and ATS in that role.
-- Including the playoffs, Washington has produced a 21-16-1 ATS mark this season.
-- At home, the Mystics have gone 16-3 SU and 12-16-1 ATS.
-- The club has produced a 13-6 SU and 9-10 ATS mark on the road.
-- Washington was listed as an underdog four times this season and it went 2-2 both SU and ATS in that role.
-- Coincidentally, the two setbacks came to Connecticut (see above).
-- Game 2, 4 and 5 will be played on one day of rest. The Sun went 10-5 SU and 8-7 ATS playing with the short break this season while Washington was a tad better at 11-3 SU and 9-5 ATS.
-- The pair will have three or more days of rest between the first and third installments. Both Connecticut (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) and Washington (9-2 SU, 4-6-1 ATS) have fared well with the extra rest.
-- Sticking with the above, Game 1 and 3 are afternoon matchups. Connecticut has gone 6-9 ATS in day games while the Mystics own a solid 10-4 ATS mark.
Total Talk
-- The ‘under’ went 3-0 in this year’s regular season meetings between the pair.
-- In 2018, the two clubs saw their total results go 2-2.
-- Make a note that Washington has scored 75, 69 and 68 points in their last three trips to the Mohegan Sun Arena.
-- Including the postseason, the Sun watched the ‘under’ go 20-17 while Washington was a great ‘over’ wager (23-15).
-- Connecticut saw both its home (10-9) and away (10-8) records lean to the low side.
-- Washington saw the ‘over’ go 12-7 at home and 11-8 on the road.
-- As mentioned above, Game 1 and 3 will be afternoon tilts and even though the Mystics were an ‘over’ club this season, the high side was just 8-6 in day games. Connecticut watched the ‘under’ go 10-5 in afternoon spots.
WNBA Finals - Notable Trends
-- Both teams are aiming for their first WNBA title. While the Mystics were swept by Seattle in the finals last year, the Sun haven't been here since consecutive appearances in 2004-05. They were coached by Mike Thibault, who now ironically leads Washington.
-- Favorites have gone 13-8 straight up and 9-11-1 ATS in the last five finals.
WNBA History
-- Home squads have produced a 12-9 straight up record during this span.
-- Total bettors have watched more ‘under’ tickets connect in the last dance with the low side holding a slight 12-9 lean.
Stats to Watch
-- Washington has been an offensive machine, ranked first in points (89.3), field goal percentage (46.9%) and free throw percentage (87.5%).
-- The Mystics also led the league in 3-pointers attempted per game (25.4) and they were second in percentage (36.6%) from downtown.
-- Connecticut was ranked third in 3-point shooting percentage (35.6%).
-- That effort helped the Sun averaged 80.8 PPG, which was ranked fourth. That number could’ve been improved but Connecticut was ranked last in free throw percentage (70.3 PPG).
-- Washington surrendered 77.2 PPG defensively, ranked fourth in the league. Connecticut was a few hairs behind at 77.9 PPG.
Players to Watch – Notable Quotes
Connecticut
The Sun have benefited by having a healthy year from their starting lineup; the team used the same five players to begin every game. Jasmine Thomas, Alyssa Thomas, Shekinna Stricklen, Courtney Williams and Jonquel Jones all have the ability to have big games, making them tough to game plan against.
The core of Alyssa Thomas (11.6 points, 7.8 rebounds), Jasmine Thomas (11.1, 5.1) and Jonquel Jones (14.6, 9.7) has been together since 2016. Point guard Courtney Williams (13.2, 5.6 and 3.2 assists) joined them in 2017. Jasmine Thomas says they're like a college team that is dominated by seniors and understand how to play with each other.
''We take pride in team basketball. That's what we have fun doing on the defensive and offensive end,'' said Jasmine Thomas. ''But I think we definitely have stars here. We have All-Stars; we have the best 3-point shooter in the league (Shekinna Stricklen - 3rd in the WNBA). We have people who are reaching milestones in their career so early. We do play team basketball, but we absolutely have stars.''
Washington
This Mystics team is very different than the one that got swept by Seattle last season.
The Mystics are led by forward Elena Delle Donne, who was named the 2019 WNBA MVP in a near-unanimous vote. Delle Donne averaged 19.5 points, 8.3 rebounds and 2.2 assists and shot a league-high 97.4% from the free throw line.
Along side EDD is Emma Meesseman, who missed the 2018 season while preparing for the Women's World Cup with Belgium. Meesseman was a huge reason the Mystics were able to advance past Las Vegas, winning the series in Game 4 as she had 22 points in the win.
''We didn't have Emma. We're a different team when she's on it,'' Delle Donne said. ''We got a really good Connecticut team coming in. They are playing really great basketball. We'll focus on them and figure some things out.''
While the Mystics have been in this position before, only guard Kristi Toliver has won a title, doing so with Los Angeles in 2016. She had been sidelined with her own bone bruise before returning for the playoffs. She started in Game 4 of the series against Las Vegas - the first time she had done so in the playoffs.Comment
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WNBA
Dunkel
Sunday, September 29
Connecticut @ Washington
Game 601-602
September 29, 2019 @ 3:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Connecticut
112.245
Washington
122.830
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 10 1/2
179
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 7 1/2
165 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-7 1/2); OverComment
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WNBA
Long Sheet
Sunday, September 29
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CONNECTICUT (26 - 11) at WASHINGTON (28 - 9) - 9/29/2019, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CONNECTICUT is 5-12 ATS (-8.2 Units) in road games this season.
CONNECTICUT is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games after scoring 75 points or more this season.
WASHINGTON is 33-14 ATS (+17.6 Units) as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games on Sunday games this season.
WASHINGTON is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in home games vs. division opponents this season.
WASHINGTON is 40-61 ATS (-27.1 Units) in home games when playing with 3 or more days rest since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
CONNECTICUT is 7-3 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
CONNECTICUT is 6-4 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasonsComment
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WNBA
Sunday, September 29
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Washington Mystics
Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Washington is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
Washington is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Washington's last 11 games at home
Washington is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Connecticut
Washington is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Connecticut
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Connecticut
Washington is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games when playing at home against Connecticut
Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Connecticut
Washington is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Connecticut
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing at home against Connecticut
Connecticut Sun
Connecticut is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Connecticut is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games
Connecticut is 5-10-1 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
Connecticut is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Connecticut is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Washington
Connecticut is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Connecticut's last 5 games when playing Washington
Connecticut is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
Connecticut is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Washington
Connecticut is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Connecticut's last 6 games when playing on the road against WashingtonComment
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MLB
Sunday, September 29
National League
Last day of the regular season; lot of bullpen games.
Marlins (56-105) @ Phillies (81-80)
Alcantara is 0-2, 3.66 in his last three starts; he is 1-1, 4.97 in two starts vs Philly this year. Team in his starts: 10-21
5-inning record: 13-15-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 9-31 Over/under: 8-15-8
Team in his starts: 0-0
5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0 Over/under: 0-0
Miami is 3-4 in its last seven games; over is 5-3-1 in their last nine games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 4-3-1 last eight games.
Philly lost six of its last eight games; under is 8-4-3 in their last 16 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 7-3-1 last 11 games.
Reds (74-87) @ Pirates (69-92)
Bauer is 1-0, 3.32 in his last three starts. Team in his starts: 3-7
5-inning record: 3-6-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 5-10 Over/under: 5-4-1
Williams is 0-2, 7.86 in his last four starts; he is 2-0, 2.00 in three starts vs Cincy this year. Team in his starts: 14-11
5-inning record: 07-13-5 Allowed run in 1st inning: 11-25 Over/under: over 12-2 last 14
Cincinnati lost six of last eight games; under is 6-2 in their last eight road games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 5-1 last six games.
Pirates won four of their last five games; over is 4-2 in their last six home games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 6-3 last nine home games.
Braves (97-64) @ Mets (85-76)
Soroka is 2-0, 1.64 in his last two starts; he is 2-0, 3.65 in two starts vs NYM this year. Team in his starts: 19-9
5-inning record: 18-7-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 6-28 Over/under: under 4-1-1 last six
Syndergaard is 0-1, 6.97 in his last four starts; he is starts vs Atlanta this year. Team in his starts: 18-13
5-inning record: 14-11-6 Allowed run in 1st inning: 8-31 Over/under: over 6-0 last six
Atlanta lost four of last five games; over is 7-5 in their last 12 road games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 5-3-1 last nine road games.
Mets won eight of last 11 games; over is 4-3 in their last seven games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 7-3-1 last 11 games.
Brewers (89-72) @ Rockies (70-91)
Woodruff is is 0-0, 0.00 in two opens (4 IP) since coming off the IL; he is starts vs Colorado. Team in his starts: 18-4
5-inning record: 15-6-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 7-22 Over/under: 13-9
Hoffman is 1-1, 5.49 in his last four starts. Team in his starts: 6-8
5-inning record: 5-7-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 6-14 Over/under: last three over
Brewers won seven of their last nine games; under is 7-4-1 in their last 12 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 4-3 last seven games.
Colorado lost six of last ten games; over is 7-3 in their last ten home games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 10-5 last 15 games.
Cubs (84-77) @ Cardinals (90-71)
Team in his starts: 0-0
5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0 Over/under: 0-0
Flaherty is 5-2, 1.18 in his last nine starts; he is 1-1, 3.07 n five starts vs Chicago this year. Team in his starts: 16-16
5-inning record: 14-9-9 Allowed run in 1st inning: 5-32 Over/under: under 13-2 last 15
Cubs lost nine of their last 11 games; over is 10-5 in their last 15 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 7-3 last ten games.
St Louis won six of last ten games; under is 3-3-1 in their last seven home games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 9-4 last 13 games.
Padres (70-91) @ Diamondbacks (84-77)
Team in his starts: 0-0
5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0 Over/under: 0-0
Team in his starts: 0-0
5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0 Over/under: 0-0
Padres lost 14 of last 16 games; under is 4-1-1 in their last six road games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 4-2 last six games.
Arizona won seven of last nine games; over is 7-2-2 in their last 11 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 3-3 last six games.
Dodgers (105-56) @ Giants (77-84)
Hill is 0-0, 2.45 in his last three starts (3.2 IP); he is 1-0, 3.00 in two starts vs SF this year. Team in his starts: 9-3
5-inning record: 4-4-4 Allowed run in 1st inning: 5-12 Over/under: 6-4-2
Bumgarner is 0-1, 5.52 in his last five starts; he is 0-3, 4.37 in four starts vs LA this year. Team in his starts: 19-15
5-inning record: 14-13-7 Allowed run in 1st inning: 13-34 Over/under: over 5-1-1 last seven
Dodgers won their last six games; over is 6-3-1 in their last ten games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 7-2 last nine games.
Giants split their last six games; under is 6-3 in their last nine home games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 6-3 last nine home games. This is Bochy’s last game as SF’s manager.
American League
Rays (96-65) @ Blue Jays (66-95)
Snell is 1-0, 1.37 in his last five starts (19.2 IP); he is 0-1, 3.75 in two starts vs Toronto this. Team in his starts: 12-10
5-inning record: 9-10-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 5-22 Over/under: over 6-2-1 last nine
Buchholz is 0-2, 10.70 in his last four starts; 0-1, 3.75 in two starts vs TB this year. Team in his starts: 5-6
5-inning record: 2-8-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 3-11 Over/under: over 3-0 last three
Rays won seven of last nine games; over is 7-4 in their last 11 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 6-2 last eight games.
Toronto is 10-7 in its last 17 games; over is 9-6 in their last 15 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 6-2-1 last nine games.
Orioles (54-107) @ Red Sox (83-78)
Bundy is 1-1, 3.57 in his last three starts; he is starts vs Boston. Team in his starts: 10-20
5-inning record: 16-12-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 10-30 Over/under: over 5-1 last six
Rodriguez is 2-0, 4.58 in his last three starts; he is 3-0, 1.29 in three starts vs Baltimore this year. Team in his starts: 25-8
5-inning record: 22-9-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 10-33 Over/under: under 4-1-1 last six
Orioles are 9-8 in their last 17 games; under is 7-4 in their last 11 road games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 10-5-2 last 17 games.
Boston is 4-8 in its last 12 games; over is 8-1 in their last nine games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 6-1 last seven games.
New York (103-58) @ Rangers (77-84)
Tanaka is 1-1, 4.50 in his last four starts; he is starts vs Texas. Team in his starts: 20-11
5-inning record: 19-9-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 5-31 Over/under: last three over
Lynn is 1-1, 3.26 in his last three starts; he is starts vs NY. Team in his starts: 1-8 last nine
5-inning record: 15-13-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 12-31 Over/under: under 7-3 last ten
New York split its last 16 games; under is 7-4 in their last 11 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 6-1-2 last nine games.
Texas lost 10 of last 13 games; over is 7-0 in their last seven games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 6-1-1 last eight games.
Tigers (47-113) @ White Sox (71-89)
Turnbull is 0-2, 3.94 in his last three starts. Team in his starts: 1-16 last 17
5-inning record: 6-22-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 10-30 Over/under: under 5-2-1 last 8
Detwiler is 0-2, 10.80 in his last three starts. Team in his starts: 4-6
5-inning record: 3-7 Allowed run in 1st inning: 3-10 Over/under: 4-4-2
Detroit lost nine of last 11 games; under is 9-3-1 in their last 13 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 5-1-2 last eight games.
White Sox won six of last nine games; over is 5-3 in their last eight home games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 4-1-1 last six games.
Twins (101-60) @ Royals (58-103)
Perez is 0-1, 9.75 in his last three starts; he is 0-1, 9.95 in four starts vs KC this year. Team in his starts: 17-11
5-inning record: 17-9-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 7-28 Over/under: 17-11
Lopez is 0-2, 9.72 in his last two starts. Team in his starts: 5-12
5-inning record: 4-12-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 6-17 Over/under: 10-6-1
Twins won eight of last nine games; over is 9-6 in their last 15 road games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 7-3 last ten road games.
Kansas City lost eight of last ten games; over is 4-1 in their last five games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 5-3 last eight games.
Astros (106-55) @ Angels (72-89)
Cole is 4-0, 1.16 in his last four starts; he is starts vs. LAA. Team in his starts: won last 12
5-inning record: 20-6-5 Allowed run in 1st inning: 10-31 Over/under: under 4-1 last five
Peters is 1-1, 4.80 in his last three starts; they may use an opener. Team in his starts: 0-0
5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0 Over/under: 0-0
Astros won 12 of last 13 games; under is 4-1 in their last five games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 5-0 last five games.
Angels lost 13 of last 17 games; over is 5-3 in their last eight games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 6-5 last 11 games.
A’s (97-64) @ Mariners (67-93)
Roark is 1-1, 9.45 in his last three starts. Team in his starts: 5-4
5-inning record: 6-2-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 3-9 Over/under: 4-5
Team in his starts: 0-0
5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0 Over/under: 0-0
Oakland won 12 of last 16 games; under is 15-8 in their last 23 road games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 7-2 last nine games.
Seattle lost four of its last five games; under is 12-4 in their last 16 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 5-3 last eight games.
Interleague
Indians (93-68) @ Nationals (92-69)
Clevinger is 2-1, 0.86 in his last three starts. Team in his starts: 10-5
5-inning record: 10-4-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 4-15 Over/under: over 6-2 last eight
Ross is 0-1, 6.94 in his last three starts. Team in his starts: 5-2
5-inning record: 4-2-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 1-7 Over/under: 2-4-1
Indians lost five of last seven games; over is 6-1 in their last seven games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 7-2 last nine games.
Washington won its last seven games; under is 3-3-2 in their last eight games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 10-5-2 last 17 home games.Comment
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Umpires
Mia-Phil: Under is 8-2 in last 10 Miller games.
Cin-Pitt: Four of last five Visconti games went over.
Atl-NY: Under is 8-2-1 in last 11 Porter games.
Mil-Colo: Under is 5-2 in first 5 innings in last seven TGibson tilts.
Chi-StL: Under is 3-1-2 in last six Eddings games.
SD-Az: Under is 4-1-1 in last six Muchlinski games.
LA-SF: Under is 4-2-1 in last seven Gonzalez games.
TB-Tor: Six of last eight Nelson games went over.
Balt-Bos: Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Ripperger games.
NYY-Tex: Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Baker games.
Min-KC: Over is 5-1-2 in last eight Libka games.
Hst-LAA: Over is 14-2-1 in last 17 Marquez games.
A’s-Sea: Underdogs won last five Hudson games.
Clev-Wsh: Under is 6-3-1 in last ten Blaser games.
%age of times teams score in first inning (road/home/total)
Team (road-home-total)- thru 9/5
Ariz 21-71……18-68……39
Atl 21-69…..25-71……46
Cubs 18-67……25-70…..43
Reds 24-67……27-73…..51
Colo 17-72……26-66……43
LA 20-67……25-73……45
Mia 13-66……20-70…..33
Milw 21-67…..25-71…..46
Mets 26-64……21-66…..47
Philly 17-66…..21-70……38
Pitt 25-71…..18-67……43
StL 17-68…..20-70……37
SD 19-68……21-68…..40
SF 10-71……15-66……25
Wash 22-69…..21-67……43
Orioles 20-71…….23-69..….43
Boston 20-69…….24-69……44
W Sox 16-71…….18-68…….34
Clev 20-69…..21-71……..41
Det 21-71……18-65……..39
Astros 26-70…..17-69……..43
KC 19-68…..24-72……..43
Angels 26-72……15-67…….41
Twins 28-71……18-68……46
NYY 21-66……27-75……48
A’s 17-66…..19-71…….36
Sea 19-71…..17-69…….36
TB 24-70…..22-70……46
Texas 17-73…..24-67…….41
Toronto 18-71…..19-71…….37
Interleague play- 2019
NL @ AL– 83-63 NL, favorites -$1,467 over 68-67-5
AL @ NL– 68-66 NL, favorites -$1,900 over 73-58-8
Total: 151-129 NL, favorites -$3,367 Over 141-125-13Comment
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MLB
Sunday, September 29
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NY Yankees @ Texas
NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 6 games when playing on the road against Texas
NY Yankees is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Texas
Texas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas's last 5 games
Baltimore @ Boston
Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Boston
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Boston's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games at home
Miami @ Philadelphia
Miami
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Miami is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games when playing at home against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing Miami
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
LA Dodgers @ San Francisco
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Francisco's last 9 games at home
Cleveland @ Washington
Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games on the road
Washington
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Houston @ LA Angels
Houston
Houston is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Houston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
LA Angels
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Angels's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Angels's last 5 games at home
Tampa Bay @ Toronto
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Toronto is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
Detroit @ Chi White Sox
Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games
Chi White Sox
Chi White Sox is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing Detroit
Chi White Sox is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Detroit
San Diego @ Arizona
San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games on the road
San Diego is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
Arizona
Arizona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Diego
Arizona is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing San Diego
Milwaukee @ Colorado
Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Milwaukee's last 13 games when playing on the road against Colorado
Milwaukee is 18-4 SU in its last 22 games
Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Colorado's last 13 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Colorado's last 5 games at home
Atlanta @ NY Mets
Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Mets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing NY Mets
NY Mets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Mets's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
NY Mets is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Oakland @ Seattle
Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games on the road
Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games at home
Minnesota @ Kansas City
Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Kansas City is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Chi Cubs @ St. Louis
Chi Cubs
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games on the road
St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of St. Louis's last 12 games when playing at home against Chi CubsComment
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Hastings
Hastings - Race 7 Daily Double / Exactor / Triactor / SuperfectaAllowance • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3-4 • CR: 87 • Purse: $20,000 • Post: 4:38P FOR THREE AND FOUR YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; FOUR YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 29 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE JULY 29 ALLOWED 4 LBS. ContendersRace AnalysisP#Horse Morn
LineAccept
Odds
Race Type: Dominant Stalker. ALL GOOD is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * ALL GOOD: Horse is highest ranked on Good Speed and Good Class. Horse is dropping in class, has an inside post position and isn't a Trailer. Horse had a bu llet workout within the last seven days. 4ALL GOOD 3/18/5
P#Horse (In Running Style Order)PostMorn
LineRunning StyleGood
ClassGood
SpeedEarly FigureFinish FigurePlatinum
Figure10FINALLY GOTTCHA 1010/1Front-runner 848176.975.961.97EL NOBLE 75/1Alternator/Front-runner 848276.084.874.811FORT LANGLEY 1112/1Stalker 777669.669.651.64ALL GOOD 43/1Alternator/Stalker 10010084.492.890.83DOOBIEDOOBIEDOOBIE 312/1Alternator/Stalker 747960.773.354.36FRIGHT NIGHT 68/1Trailer 838665.379.669.612SPECULATOR 126/1Trailer 898563.683.473.99WHISKEY BOUND 910/1Alternator/Trailer 838273.180.569.55STAY FANTASTIC 58/1Alternator/Trailer 838568.479.467.41JUSTIFIED 115/1Alternator/Non-contender 907979.369.755.78HARRY'S HAMMER 820/1Alternator/Non-contender 838172.678.462.92PADDY D'ORO 230/1Alternator/Non-contender 807365.058.139.1Comment
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Golden Gate Fields
Golden Gate Fields - Race 7 $1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $1 Superfecta (.10 min) $2 Rolling Double /$0.50 Late Pick 5 Races (7-8-9-10-11) $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9) $1 Rolling Super High FiveAllowance • 6 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 98 • Purse: $31,000 • Post: 4:19P FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $10,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 15 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (MAIDEN, CLAIMING AND STARTER RACES FOR $25,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES) (CAL-BRED OR CAL-SIRED HORSES THAT HAVE WON THE OPEN FIRST CONDITION ALLOWANCE RACE IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MUST CARRY AN ADDITIONAL 2 LBS.). ContendersRace AnalysisP#Horse Morn
LineAccept
Odds
Race Type: Lone Trailer. TOMAHAWK TUESDAY is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * LA WAUN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. EL CHAVO DEL OCHO: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. TOMAHAWK TUESDAY: Horse r anks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. GIDDYMEISTER: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. RUSH: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. 9LA WAUN 12/16/16EL CHAVO DEL OCHO 7/26/13TOMAHAWK TUESDAY 15/17/15GIDDYMEISTER 5/28/14RUSH 9/29/1
P#Horse (In Running Style Order)PostMorn
LineRunning StyleGood
ClassGood
SpeedEarly FigureFinish FigurePlatinum
Figure1OUTLAW 14/1Front-runner 969091.683.670.19LA WAUN 912/1Front-runner 989985.894.487.95GIDDYMEISTER 55/2Front-runner 969585.292.482.94RUSH 49/2Stalker 988988.691.681.68FORT COURAGE 812/1Stalker 979381.287.074.57CAPTURE THE SEA 712/1Stalker 878578.277.264.72ARMOUR PLATE 28/1Alternator/Stalker 949193.976.864.86EL CHAVO DEL OCHO 67/2Alternator/Stalker 979282.693.490.43TOMAHAWK TUESDAY 315/1Trailer 989587.293.083.5Comment
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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Monmouth Park
09/29/19, MTH, Race 2, 1.44 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.07.02 CLAIMING. Purse $26,000.
Claiming Price $12,500, For Each $1,000 To $10,500 1 lb. (PLUS UP TO 40% NJB) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLDAND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE MARCH 29
Win, Place and Show - Exacta, 50-Cent Trifecta and 10-Cent Superfecta - Daily Double (Races 2-3)/50-Cent Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) - 50-Cent Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5)
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.100.0000 1 Distinctive Lady 7/2 Tunon M Sweezey J. Kent FE 098.1028 2 Exceed the Goal 9/5 Diaz. Jr. H R Englehart Jeffrey S. 098.0965 5 What About Tonight 3-1 Lopez P Lisowski Katie J 097.8382 4 Luna Azteca 8-1 Moreno A Delgado Jose H. TL 097.6332 6 Trufflesberg 5-1 Hernandez H Englehart Jeffrey S. SWC 096.0593 3 Miss Maris 7/2 Garcia W A Lisowski Katie
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to MTH.
* Dynamic condition may change before the race. Confirm before using stats for top rated horse.1 76.50 1.21 48.62 88 181 [All Surfaces] Best Finish 2 62.60 2.12 21.43 6 28 [Dirt Not_MdnMClm] 5f Workout Since Last Race 5 52.60 2.20 22.73 5 22 [Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Actual Post Not Greater Than 9 And Distance 6f or 6 1/2f 4 52.60 2.20 22.73 5 22 [Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Actual Post Not Greater Than 9 And Distance 6f or 6 1/2f 6 52.60 2.20 22.73 5 22 [Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Actual Post Not Greater Than 9 And Distance 6f or 6 1/2f 3 52.60 2.20 22.73 5 22 [Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Actual Post Not Greater Than 9 And Distance 6f or 6 1/2f Comment
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