Monday 9-30-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football

College Football
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football

Baseball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...57-ML-Baseball

College Basketball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...CAA-Basketball

NBA
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball

NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

Sep 30 '19, 11:00 PM in 14h
Tennis | D Goffin vs Pablo Carreno-Busta
Play on: Pablo Carreno-Busta +151 at BMaker

1* Free Pick on Pablo Carreno-Busta +151

[Can'tPickAWinner]

277CINCINNATI -278 PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 62-30 ATS (29 Units) vs. good passing QB (>7 PYA) since 1992.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 4

Monday, September 30

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh

Game 277-278
September 30, 2019 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
125.041
Pittsburgh
132.190
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 7
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 4
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-4); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 4

Monday, September 30

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CINCINNATI (0 - 3) at PITTSBURGH (0 - 3) - 9/30/2019, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 108-80 ATS (+20.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 53-34 ATS (+15.6 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 2-2 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 4

Trend Report

Monday, September 30

Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games at home
Pittsburgh is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Pittsburgh's last 16 games at home
Pittsburgh is 13-5-1 ATS in its last 19 games when playing Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 4

Bengals (0-3) @ Steelers (0-3)— Third road game in four weeks for Bengals, who covered eight of last ten tries as a road underdog- they lost first two road games by total of five points. Bengals have yet to run ball 20 times in a game; they’ve turned ball over eight times (-4), were outscored 38-10 in first half of last two games. Steelers are 0-3 for first time since 2013, losing last two games by total of six points. Pitt has converted only 9-35 on third down; they completed only two passes LW that went more than one yard downfield, in Rudolph’s first NFL start. Pitt won last eight series games, winning 28-21/16-13 LY; Bengals lost last three visits here, by 8-15-3 points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 4
Bruce Marshall

Monday, Sept. 30

CINCINNATI at PITTSBURGH (ESPN, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Cincy now on 6-1 spread run since late 2018. Road team has covered 5 straight and 7 of last 8 in series. Bengals “under” 5-1-2 last eight since late 2018 and “unders” 4-1 last five in series.
Tech Edge: Bengals and “under,” based on series and “totals” trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TOTAL TO BET LATER: OVER 43.5 CINCINNATI AT PITTSBURGH

In rare air for a primetime matchup, those leaning towards the Over for Monday Night Football’s AFC North war between Cincinnati and Pittsburgh may want to wait it out. Most weeks, a night game means blind backing for the Over from the public, but this rivalry isn’t selling the points like it should.

The Steelers are without QB Ben Roethlisberger and looking to backup Mason Rudolph to keep them competitive. The reviews are still out on the former Oklahoma State gunslinger, but he did show flashes of big-play potential on both TD strikes last Sunday and Pittsburgh put up 20 points despite having the football for less than 24 minutes in Week 3.

The Steelers defense is the real issue. Pittsburgh has allowed 28.3 points per game through the first three weeks and has been torched for almost 303 passing yards an outing (second most in the NFL). The Steelers have allowed 15 passing plays of 20 or more yards in those contests and take on the Bengals' up-tempo attack that thrives on the big plays (14 passing plays of 20-plus).

Cincinnati got off to a slow start at Buffalo in Week 3 but snapped out of it just in time to score 17 second-half points and cover the +6 in the loss. There’s a lot of potential for this Bengals offense – something that can’t be said for the defense. Between missed tackles and giving up 6.4 yards per play, Cincy sits 27th in points allowed at 27.7 per game. With two piss-poor defenses, the prospect for points, and lots of them, is great.

This one goes against the traditional MNF grain (as well as the Under trend in this divisional rivalry: 2-5 O/U last seven meetings), but wait to see if this continues to drop (fell from as high as 44 to as low as 43 at some spots) and be the Over later in the Week 4 finale.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Monday Night Football game this week is a bit of a stinker, as two 0-3 teams face off. The Bengals have really missed WR A.J. Green, as the offense has averaged just 18.0 PPG, while hitting the 'under' in each of their two road games this season. The Steelers have struggled mightily on both sides of the ball, and they're figuring out their identity with QB Ben Roethlisberger (elbow) done for the season, so QB Mason Rudolph gets his feet wet. Pittsburgh is averaging 16.3 PPG through three games, hitting the 'under' twice in three tries. With 'Big Ben' under center last season, Pittsburgh put up some crooked numbers in night games as it averaged 32.3 PPG and the 'over' went 3-1 in those games.
Fearless Predictions
I took a bit of a beating again in Week 3, as the net loss was (-$220). The Rams-Browns game ruined what would've been a nice teaser win. That's (-$660) for the season, too. We'll look to improve heading into Week 4. As CD (see below) would say, always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delaware Park

Delaware Park - Race 8	Daily Double (Races 8-9) / Exacta / Trifecta (50-cent. min.) Superfecta (10-cent min.)
Claiming $12,500 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 70 • Purse: $21,000 • Post: 4:45P
(PLUS UP TO 50% OTHER SOURCES) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 30 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, IF FOR $10,000, ALLOWED 3 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * GALLANOR: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. C HARMING EMMY: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. GREAT COOKIE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(spri nt or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50.
1	GALLANOR	9/5	5/2
6	CHARMING EMMY	6/1	6/1
3	GREAT COOKIE	5/2	10/1

---

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	AMERICAN STAR	5	8/1	Stalker	44	51	53.4	35.6	27.1
3	GREAT COOKIE	3	5/2	Stalker	67	57	44.7	34.1	27.1
1	GALLANOR	1	9/5	Trailer	73	66	49.5	67.3	63.3
6	CHARMING EMMY	6	6/1	Trailer	68	60	22.2	58.7	52.2
4	PERFECT EXCHANGE	4	7/2	Trailer	61	59	14.8	53.2	47.2
2	TRIBOROUGH GIRL	2	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	52	52	48.2	41.3	31.3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Thistledown

Thistledown - Race 5	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / $1 Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) $.50 Pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8)
Claiming $5,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 74 • Purse: $10,700 • Post: 3:40P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE SEPTEMBER 30. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 30 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 30 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Stalker. CRISIS AVERTED is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * PINK PAJAMAS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. FANCY PA NTS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CRISIS AVERTED: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the high est TrackMaster Power Rating. JIMA'S GOLD: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
1A	PINK PAJAMAS	3/1	4/1
1	FANCY PANTS	3/1	6/1
3	CRISIS AVERTED	8/1	9/1
2	JIMA'S GOLD	6/1	10/1

---

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	ALMIGHTY STORM	3	6/1	Front-runner	73	71	76.4	54.4	45.4
1A	PINK PAJAMAS	7	3/1	Alternator/Front-runner	77	77	76.2	66.8	63.8
2	JIMA'S GOLD	1	6/1	Alternator/Front-runner	70	67	71.4	56.2	47.7
3	CRISIS AVERTED	2	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	73	69	50.8	59.8	49.3
1	FANCY PANTS	5	3/1	Trailer	67	73	44.2	64.2	56.7
6	TORMENTA DE ORO	6	7/2	Trailer	66	62	39.4	56.0	47.5
8	YURUBI	9	9/2	Alternator/Non-contender	66	63	67.0	50.8	36.8
5	ENIGMA	4	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	76	56	60.6	48.4	38.4
7	HY RAPID LADY	8	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	27.2	50.6	34.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

---

Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 35

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 PUT UP R SHUT UP 6/5
# 4 LADY STIPP 15/1
# 3 SILLY MILLY 5/1

I've got to go with PUT UP R SHUT UP. Players should note that this pony runs with second time Lasix today. Horses who have been prepared to race at this distance and surface by Acquilano have shown strong results recently. Ought to be carefully examined as she drops to compete against this softer field. LADY STIPP - Make a note that this horse runs with second time Lasix today. Looks decent against this group of animals and will most likely be one of the leaders. SILLY MILLY - In the upper half of earnings per start at the distance/surface in this group.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Parx Racing - Race #1 - Post: 12:55pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $28,000 Class Rating: 66

Rating:

#2 START A FIRE (ML=6/1)
#1 WAREHOUSE (ML=8/1)


START A FIRE - With no past performances, one of the variables I look at are trainer stats, and Breen has a +78 percent ROI rate with 1st timers. Going on Lasix for the first time. While a widespread handicapping angle, it's still quite important when deciding on your contenders. WAREHOUSE - With a big class drop in Equibase class figure points from his September 13th race at Laurel. Based on that key piece of info, I will give this animal the advantage. Allard is trying blinks on today. Note that this horse worked from the gate in a morning prep, most likely in blinkers.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 TALENTED SON (ML=5/2), #3 MIAMI CROCKETT (ML=4/1), #5 FOURTEEN CARROT (ML=9/2),

MIAMI CROCKETT - Can't bet on this runner in today's sprint of 5 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't even hit the board in a short distance race lately. This gelding notched a speed fig in his last race which probably isn't good enough today. FOURTEEN CARROT - Improbable that the speed fig he registered on September 12th will hold up in this contest.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - WAREHOUSE - Looking for his first visit to the winner's circle, today's 5 1/2 furlongs on the dirt will be a welcome change for this thoroughbred after racing on the grass last race at Laurel.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #2 START A FIRE to win if we can get at least 2/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Zia Park - Race #3 - Post: 12:54pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,500 Class Rating: 40

Rating:

#6 RED OR GREEN (ML=2/1)


RED OR GREEN - This is the only real stalker in the race. The September 1st event at Ruidoso Downs was at a class level of (59). Dropping down in class significantly, so she should be in a good position to win. Ran a less than stellar race at Ruidoso Downs last race out. Racing under better track conditions puts this filly at the top of my contenders list.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 NAVARONES LEGEND (ML=4/1), #4 TEE SHOT DOLLY (ML=6/1), #2 SUTAH WHO (ML=6/1),

NAVARONES LEGEND - Hasn't finished in the money in any sprint affairs recently. Unlikely to see her doing it in today's event either. TEE SHOT DOLLY - This less than sharp equine will in all probability be pulling up the rear as this bunch crosses the finish line. SUTAH WHO - Hard to bet on at 6/1 odds after the two most recent outings. 6/1 is not pegged at the proper price for any mount in a sprint of 5 1/2 furlongs that hasn't hit the board in a short distance affair recently. Finished sixth in her most recent effort with a quite unimpressive speed fig. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this bunch.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - RED OR GREEN - At Ruidoso Downs on September 1st this filly posted a speed figure of 32 in her last race. She has the greatest last figure in the field.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #6 RED OR GREEN on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	6 with [8,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	6 with [8,9] with [1,5,8,9] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	6 with [5,8,9] with [1,4,5,8,9] with [1,4,5,8,9] Total Cost: $36