Service Plays Wednesday 9/25/19

[Can'tPickAWinner]

INSIDER SPORTS REPORT

4* Arizona(Kelly)+110 over St. Louis(Wacha)
3* Boston(Porcello)-150 over Texas(Allard)
3* Atlanta(Soroka)-1.5 runs-130 over Kansas City(Montgomery)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

National Sports Service

4* Washington(Sanchez)-160 over Phillies(Smyly)
3* Houston(Greinke/Seattle(Kikuchi) OVer 9.5

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ELITE SPORTS PICKS

Milwaukee(Lyles)/Cincy(Mahle) Under

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Miller locks

6:40 pm est mlb
milwaukee brewers vs. Cincinnati reds

pick: Milwaukee brewers (-137)

risk: 11 units


6:40 pm est mlb
minnesota twins vs. Detroit tigers

pick: Minnesota twins -1.5 (-129)

risk: 11 units

8:10 pm est mlb
cleveland indians vs. Chicago white sox

pick: Cleveland indians -1.5 (-202)

risk: 11 units

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Docs Sports
RL smash
Bos -1.5

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Green Bay Monster Sports

Top rated play Twins rl -130

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Jim Feist

Situational gow

Milw -130

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Worlds Worst Picker
His picks:
Cards ML started
Reds ML
KC ML

We take:
Arizona ML started
Brewers ML
Atlanta ML

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Finn


AMERICAN LEAGUE GAME OF THE WEEK
Game: (965) Minnesota Twins at (966) Detroit Tigers
Date/Time: Sep 25 2019 6:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 9.5 (-104)

View Analysis

NOTE: To all of my season long and All-Access clients this release is both an official play and one that was posted on the WagerTalk Free Play page. It rates as a 4% investment.

Enjoy humpnight on the diamond

PLAY: Under the Total of 9.5 runs (play good to 9 runs)
4% confidence rating

LIST PITCHERS: Dobnak and Norris

(965) Minnesota Twins at (966) Detroit Tigers

American League Game of the Week Vitals

Here we are at the crossroads in Major League Baseball. The final five days of the regular season. At a point when neither team is as focused ad five days into the season but much more comfortable in their job and just as important for 95-plus percent of big leaguers, there is some normal in the headlights. It is the final Monday, the final week of work before taking some much need time away from the daily grind and eating, sleeping and arguing with the same people day in and day out... you know what I am referring to... family. American League Preview and Free Pick: Tigers vs Twins.

Minnesota's situation is a bit different than that of Detroit but they too are comfortable knowing they are postseason bound and without the pressure of a nine-inning play-in scenario. These two American League Central foes experienced much different types of seasons in 2019. The one thing both have in common is that on Sunday the regular slate of the MLB campaign will come to a close. After eight months of traveling and nearly 120 days of living out of a hotel room and sleeping in a strange bed, the Tigers players receive a much-deserved vacation.

The Twins regular season ends Sunday, as well, but the group of Minnesota pitchers and position players would like to keep play catch for a bit longer.

American League Game of the Week Vitals
(965) Minnesota Twins at (966) Detroit Tigers
Starting Pitchers: Dobnak vs Norris
Line: Twins (Dobnak) -195, 9.5
Venue: Comerica Park, Detroit Michigan
Weather/Wind: 10-15 mph winds blowing from the leftfield corner to the rightield corner"
Scheduled home plate umpire. Ramon De Jesus (pitcher-friendly)

Minnesota Twins
Dobnak is an after school special. He is a short story, a 30-30 type narrative that I would enjoy writing about but I will fight the urge. I will give you a brief synopsis of the undrafted right-hander. Dobnak received one DI scholarship and a pair of DII. He took the DII and went unnoticed as a middling college pitcher that is equal to Low-A ball.

A kid that can throw a baseball in the mid-90s' isn't as rare as it used to be. With technology and the understanding of rotation, r.pm., Nolan Ryan velocity type guys are much more prevalent.

A kid that can throw a baseball in the mid-'90s, a one-seamer, without above-average spin rate, and throw that 93-95 mph single seam sinker for strikes which induce ground balls is not common. Toss in the mental variable of what it takes, really (repeat this like a kid does when attempting to be descriptive with his tale -- as in... when my youngest son was a young teenager was inviting me into his orbit, the only way he knew too, and that was being passionate while selling his story, feelings if you will. "Dad, it is really really really really cool, you and I have to go and see it."

Most, and I use the word "most" loosely, 18-year olds are excited to be playing minor league ball. They understand that it is essentially their four-years of college before either moving on to professorship. What it takes for an 18-year old to manage life as a minor leaguer isn't nearly as difficult as it is for a 22-years and/or older adult/kid. The 18-year old is getting paid to play. In many cases, the signing bonus allowed them some flexibility and financial security they have never experienced. And as you know some handle it well and others don't.

Life on the Farm
The 22-year old that is essentially a senior in college falls into one of three categories. A blooming prospect that may well have already had a cup of coffee with the mothership and is waiting his turn. A 22-year old that has for the last four years traveled in a bus, spent a third of his life in a Motel-8 and his closest relationships are with his peers, the other franchise employees, that irritate the shit out of him, each other, for the better part of 9 months of the year. But these guys are desperately want to know what it feels like to have the skill set to reach into the sky, grab the corner of a cloud, and really really really really have that warm sensation of having achieved all the while enjoying view from above.

Yes, all of the cliche's could have followed that last paragraph. There is something to be said, and felt, of having achieved , and enjoying the view (which isn't just a term used for the sense of sight) and all that comes along with it.

It is -- if treated with respect -- Good to be King

There is also the largest contingent of kids that don't have the skill set or the ability to self-sacrifice and want a life that is everything a minor league baseball player isn't. The definition of normal, of course, is another discussion, one that you surely don't want me to attempt to pen. This group chooses to leave the playground and enter the daily grind of life of being a soldier for an over-the-top capitalist and the politically corrupted.

From the Farm to Fire
Dobnak has developed into a Major League pitcher. This, in, the true sense of the word. His swing and miss ratio was never at a level that allowed him the success that many of his teammates were able to reach. He developed, both in mind and in-body (muscle memory) and developed a sinker that allows him to mitigate his lack of that "it", the stuff an elite pitcher possesses in his arm and his grip.

Dobnak , not two-seamer, but one seamer, is a sinker that checks in in the neighborhood of 92-93 mph. He can, if he so chooses, reach 96 or 97 mph, but with that violent delivery, he loses a percentage of command that is... make no mistake about this... mission-critical in being successful against professional hitters.

Dobnak has arrived at the Mothership after starting the year in High-A, but quickly moved to Double-A, and made it to Triple-A, in a matter of three months. Overall across the three levels, he has a 1.99 ERA, 1.093 WHIP. His K-rate of 22.2% is league average. His walk ratio of 5.6% better than most.

Twins Scout and Teach at a high level
The Twins, of course, are now known as one of the most progressive organizations in baseball in terms of developing pitching. Derek Falvey earned his reputation as a pitching guru through his work in Cleveland’s organization, where he played a key role in developing pitchers like Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer. Kohl Stewart, Martin Perez, and others have talked positively about the impact the Twins’ player development and field staff has had on their success. Dobnak may be another example.

As pedestrian as the current Twins pitching staff is, as a whole, the organization has a terrific team of scouts and teachers, coaches, who know a diamond in the rough when they see it. And if that coal can be converted, the Twins are a staff of savvy scouts and teacher-coaches that can.

And if you are wondering how an average big league pitcher, e.g. Odorizzi, can have a career year it is because the Twins have a staff that gives their player personnel an edge before they toe the rubber. A pitcher for the Twins is well versed. He goes to class every day before starts. He knows a hitter's hot zones, cold zones, whether they’ll swing at a backdoor breaking ball, fastball up, etc. Having access to this can be the difference in being one of the zombies that have left the playground to join corporate American or a guy making 3 million a year as a back of the rotation starter in Major League Baseball.

Dobnak isn't going to win a Cy. He isn't going to be featured on ESPN every fifth day. He is, however, in line to be a back of the rotation starter at the Big League level, earning a great, not good, deal of money with the responsibility of... [drum roll please] hanging out on the playground playing catch.

“Personally, I think I’m close, but you never really know,” he said. “I can’t control any of that besides just doing what I can for myself, and if they were to give me a shot, I’m all for it. I can see it happening, which is crazy to think about when two years ago I was undrafted and going to Indy ball. I’m just enjoying the ride.”

Dobnak was stretched out in his last two start. He was successful in the ventures versus Cleveland on Sept. 15 and Kansas City last week. The 24-year-old is also getting married this Saturday. Yes, the final weekend of the big league season. Let's give him a pass on this decision that only a mental midget would make. When scheduling the wedding hs minor league season would have been completed. And where he is now is not where he believed he would be today. Again, this kid was pithing High-A ball just a handful of months ago.

Detroit Tigers
Norris is pitching the lead in the team's "opener" role tonight. He has been removed after three innings in each of the last eight appearances to limit workload, and his winless streak has increased to nine contests

The oddsmakers are not to be underestimated. They are not to be looked at or spoken of in a negative fashion. As soon as you believe you know more than they - is the day regression begins eating away at your sportsbook bankroll. You will suffer from the regression of Kharma. A virus that is oh-so-hard to get well from.

The scheduled home plate umpire tonight is Ramon De Jesus. In his last 15 responsibilities of calling balls and strikes, grading pitchers pitches.. the UNDER has cashed at a 12-3-1 clip.

De Jesus' K-Zone gets bigger as the game continues. I classify De Jesus as pitcher-friendly with his K-Zone having over 5 percent more balls -- that called strikes -- than that of the average MLB umpire... one that has a 2.65 K:BB ratio.
A strong wind at Comerica tonight is blowing from left to right field, a crosswind, making left-handed hitters warning track or deeper fly balls, cans of corn.

UNDER the TOTAL of 9.5 runs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bezobets

3* Yankees ML +133
2* Reds +1.5 -120
2* Pirates +1.5 +112
1* Reds ML +133
1* Pirates ML +176

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TONY GEORGE

7 Unit - #953 Milwaukee (-135) over Cincy *6:40 EST

[dawggy]

DR. CHUCK


Game: (9925) Cleveland Indians at (9926) Chicago White Sox
Date/Time: Sep 25 2019 2:50 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Cleveland Indians -6.5 (-129)

View Analysis

Live line betting....Indians in full control!

Game: (955) Chicago Cubs at (956) Pittsburgh Pirates
Date/Time: Sep 25 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates 1.5 (+100)

View Analysis

Lester v. Agrazal

Again with this insanity of the line?! Welp...thank you Vegas for not giving a damn even in the face of clear evidence of literally just the night before with also no football to "stress" over! Alright, we will bite....is Agrazal any tougher to back than Mitch Keller? Is Lester really better or even AS good as Hendricks...in 2019?

Nothing to do with the woeful Pirates offense or their own losing streak of 9 games mattered last night at home with the Run Line and an even money play...and tonight we have a pitcher I'm more afraid of, likely with a shorter leash even and much older than Hendricks...and the same bullpen that was bitch slapped with intensity by the Buccos last night. Agrazal is close to the same as Keller and the Cubs once again, like last night's HUGE free play winner...I could almost copy and paste the entire write up for Maddon and the boys!

Here is the gyst though...this team showed up in Pittsburgh after being SWEPT at Wrigley in a 4 game series that all but determined the central division....were dormie for a playoff spot period, Bryant got hurt, Maddon feels like one step is en route to the west coast...and they are a 2 dollar favorite??? What the hell is wrong with these oddsmakers...or more aptly...what is wrong with the public betting forum that a line like THIS could exist and still people are worried about a dumbass game between Navy/Memphis or Green Bay/Philly...TOMORROW!

On top of all this, the Cubs now must deal with HPU numero uno for endearing himself to home fans! Paul Nauert on the year has a 21-7 record for the home team of which he is umpiring!

GROSS....and another big OOPS

I assume Pirates win this going away a la last evening...but why risk such a thing when you can get an even money RL on a home team with more spoiling to do against a team more quitted in them than the BoSox last month!

Game: (957) Philadelphia Phillies at (958) Washington Nationals
Date/Time: Sep 25 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 10.0 (+102)

View Analysis

Smyly v. Sanchez

Couple of bottom of the rotation starters...Nats sweeping the DH yesterday with a very late game shocker to get to the playoffs...but just to ensure they are at home for the single gamer....they will want to keep the momentum!

Despite a couple of pitchers in the lineup...both offenses aee better than each starting pitcher...and Vic Carapazzo behind the plate will only further help our cause.

Neither team has the primary catcher available...and I am using this to our advantage tonight as the cohesion will certainly not be as prominent between 1 & 2 on either side! Phils still can muster up some rivalry and revenge and spoilerdom...especially Bryce who probably is having a hard time even sleeping with this turn of events!

Game: (971) Boston Red Sox at (972) Texas Rangers
Date/Time: Sep 25 2019 8:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Texas Rangers +135

View Analysis

Porcello v. Allard

The game from last night was a whirlwind of offense as each team came out and threw up a 4 spot in the 1st inning on the opposing starter. The Red Sox, as we discussed on the podcast, was incredibly motivated to get Eduardo a 20 game win season...what seems like a relic in today's baseball. But today with Rick Porcello on the mound, the Rangers even better and RHP, and blowing their whole wad last night grasping at anything to make a game seem relevant at this stage in the game....what will they have left?

Well, Vegas sure seems to think that might equate to something...I am shocked to see this solid price on a ML and maybe RL as well...I will be playing both heavily!

Game: (973) Cleveland Indians at (974) Chicago White Sox
Date/Time: Sep 25 2019 8:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 9.5 (-105)

View Analysis

Bieber v. Detwiler

- Wind blowing straight out to center field at double digits MPH

- Indians who need this game like blood and just got the huge boost of Jose Ramirez back in the lineup...and more ready for his return he could not have been with 2 jacks and 7 RBI

- White Sox who have done decently in an otherwise amazingly stellar Under season with Shane Bieber...the most Under pitcher of the year and not a ton of starters were close!

- Mark Ripperger behind the plate, in addition to the wind aided play here and the less than 10 total we are being offered! is a great play for this Over as he is 7-3 OU in his 10 AL umpired games, averaging 12 runs per contest and another trend with a 13 run average in this spot.

- Road team should be (and is a HUGE chalk) should be leading early and often and thus we are guaranteed our 18 total at bats for the game.

- Teams favored this big in the final stretch of the season (last 5 games) in the division with a total less than 10 have gone Over 21 times and Under just 10 times in the last 31 contests!

Game: (961) Colorado Rockies at (962) San Francisco Giants
Date/Time: Sep 25 2019 9:45 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Total Under 5.0 (-108)

View Analysis

Melville v. Samardzija

These 2 teams just played forever and ever last night and used a new MLB record 25 total pitchers between the 2 teams. This may feel like and Over type play since the options will certainly be limited. But the thing is both pitchers know what this means to be staunch early and stick with this at least close to quality start status to have any chance of saving any arms whatsoever from the limited resources already.

That's why we have Todd Tichenor also behind the plate...the best Under play going in the league period...especially in the NL. He is 8-3 to the Under in his 11 NL games and 20 of 30 overall.

There isn't a DIME of money going toward the Under tonight...in fact it ranks an almost epic 99%/1% and yet the juice is shaded to the Under and the line has yet to move!

We shall call this nasty bluff...but just to ensure we're not dealing with any fielders pitching (for both teams) late we go first 5 at the bargain of Under 5%

Game: (975) Oakland Athletics at (976) Los Angeles Angels
Date/Time: Sep 25 2019 10:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Oakland Athletics -1.5 (-138)

View Analysis

[dawggy]

ROB VENO

BASEBALL PLAYS

Game: (911) St. Louis Cardinals at (912) Arizona Diamondbacks
Date/Time: Sep 24 2019 9:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (-123)

View Analysis

Game: (957) Philadelphia Phillies at (958) Washington Nationals
Date/Time: Sep 25 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Under 10.0 (+100)

View Analysis

Game: (955) Chicago Cubs at (956) Pittsburgh Pirates
Date/Time: Sep 25 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-118)

View Analysis

Game: (975) Oakland Athletics at (976) Los Angeles Angels
Date/Time: Sep 25 2019 10:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Oakland Athletics -1.5 (-133)

View Analysis

[dawggy]

Teyas Sports

9/25/2019

GUARANTEE MLB NY YANKEES +132 MUST WIN OR ALL THURSDAYS MLB PLAYS ARE FREE

BONUS PLAYS MLB NY YANKEES OVER 8 1/2 MILWAUKEE -133 & UNDER 9 COLORADO +148

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Seabass : 400 nationals RL, 300 orioles game over , 500 braves game under , no limit Red Sox game over