Service Plays Saturday 9/28/19

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NORTHCOAST:

Top Opinions:
Penn St -6.5

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Paul Leiner


2500* Over 60.5 Okla St/Kansas St
100* Over 60.5 Ark/Texas A&M
100* BYU -2.5
100* USC +10.5

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Cal sports

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4*s BC and SC
3*'s Temple & Minny

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Tony George

NOTE TO MLB CLIENTS:
It is very slim pickins between now and the last game on Sunday before the post season. This is a reduced unit bet but we will lay chalk here on a solid set up. Too dangerous to go anything over 2 units until the post season. TG
2 Units - #912 Arizona (-160) over San Diego *8:10 EST
I will take Robbie Ray at home in this one against Garret Richards. They faced each other back on the 22nd and Richards made it 1.2 innings giving up 4 earned runs. Arizona lost 6-4 actually. Richards has an 11.59 ERA in just 5.1 innings pitched this season coming off injury. SD cannot provide run support hitting .190 as a team. Did I mention Ray is a southpaw and a good one, and SD is hitting left handers at an unreal .115 as a team their last 5 games. Take AZ here.

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Executive Sportsline

Sat, Sept 28
10:30..
CFB..
400%
Ucla +6'
over Arizona

..
7:00..
CFB..
300%
Kansas St +5
over Oklahoma St

..
7:30..
CFB..
300%
N.C.State +6'
over Florida

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TONY FINN

AMERICAN LEAGUE PRIVATE PLAY (9-4)
Game: (917) Tampa Bay Rays at (918) Toronto Blue Jays
Date/Time: Sep 28 2019 3:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-125)

View Analysis

PLAY: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 runs
4% confidence rating

LIST PITCHERS: Yarbrough and Thornton

(917) Tampa Bay Rays at (918) Toronto Blue Jays

The Tampa Bay Rays clinched an American League wild-card spot with a victory on Friday combined with a loss by the Cleveland Indians. The question that now arises is which of the two wild cards in the American League care about winning the final two games? Which one wants to play at home or does either care?

The Tampa Rays are now even with the Oakland Athletics. And while both of the coaches and those media-friendly players on both sides say and speak to playing hard and winning Saturday and Sunday expect a game of cat and mouse between the two -- both watching the scoreboard and waiting for enough evidence to come in as to when they can hold back putting the arms expected to pitch on Wednesday in the AL Wild Card game.

Toronto could absolutely care less about winning or losing and their starter on Saturday, Thornton, is on a pitch count. Once the Rays get beyond Thornton, if even Thornton can pitch out of trouble against a red hot Tampa lineup, it has yet to be seen.

Like any and all postseason bound teams jockeying the pitching staff if the most difficult and important variable for playoff success. Especially in a winner-take-all scenario and loser go home.

Yarbrough last saw action on Sunday and just one of the many talented arms on the Rays staff will throw the most innings and toss the most pitches among the Rays lined up to work an inning or less on Saturday.

The Rays Yarbrough showed some signs of fatigue in his last two starts and wasn't as effective as he has been throughout the year. The 27-year-old struggled allowed 12 runs and 18 hits over 8 1/3 innings versus the Los Angeles Angels and Boston Red Sox. His xFIP this season is more representative of his M.O. and his history of owning specific hitters and lineups is documented. The Jays are one of those teams and one of those lineups. Yarbrough is 3-0 with a 1.15 ERA in four games against Toronto this season allowing just two earned runs in 15 2/3 innings.

Thornton is finishing a middling rookie campaign and do so while the organization is putting a limit on his innings. The 25-year-old did not throw more than five innings or 92 pitches in any of his last six outings and that will be the case today vs the Rays.

Again, once Thornton has been worked in a limited role as the Jays staff has planned the last month the party is over for the Jays as their bullpen is less-than and have been overworked the last month.

TAMPA BAY RAYS -1.5 runs

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FINN PAC-12 GAME ~ WEEK (14-6)
Game: (203) UCLA at (204) ARIZONA U
Date/Time: Sep 28 2019 10:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: ARIZONA U -6.5 (-123)

View Analysis

PLAY: Arizona Wildcats -6.5 (play good to -8.5)
4% confidence rating

(203) UCLA at (204) ARIZONA U

If you need a poster child for overreaction to a week or consecutive contests by a club that was less than expected look no further than the Boston College Eagles. And if you ask or access the grin on Demon Deacons' faithful they will tell you that there couldn't be a better time to face a cupcake like BC. Afterall, Wake Forest is perfect so far on the season. They enter today's game with an undefeated record. And historically the home team has not gained the full attention of the players be it on home or away grass. That said you can count on Chestnut Hill to be loud with the stadium supports shaking right before kickoff.

The loss to a Les Miles Kansas Jayhawks team was just one of those three hour periods of football in which everything went right for Miles' troupe. The contrary to the Eagles.

Boston College currently ranks third in the ACC in total offense (458.3 ypg). The credit for this success goes to a coaching staff who understands what it takes for this group to win football games on Saturday afternoon. AJ Dillon ranks second in the ACC in yards per game. BC has averaged 252 rushing yards pg in 2019 and that is good for 20th in the FBS.

The handicapping "eightball" was shaken and turned over and..... The dual-threat at quarterback for the Devils received and registered less than 24 minutes in time of possession in the contest. A Wake defensive that had allowed less than four yards per carry on the season was overvalued in the defensive department and the Golden Eagles hold serve on home grass.

Those who have overreacted to the BC loss to the Jayhawks, that are in fact Demon Deacons faithful, have started a rumor that they would like to turn to legend... stating that their teams, the Wake Forest DD's, are the ACC’s second-best team. The advantage that Wake has in this event is at quarterback. The rest of the Finn Factor variables position Boston College in a straight-up home win over an overvalued Wake squad against an underappreciated BC unit.
ARIZONA WILDCATS -6.5 points

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FINN MWC GAME OF THE WEEK
Game: (149) HAWAII at (150) NEVADA
Date/Time: Sep 28 2019 10:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: NEVADA -2.0 (-110)

View Analysis

PLAY: Nevada -2 points (good to -4 points)
4% confidence rating

(149) HAWAII at (150) NEVADA

Hawai’i (3-1, 0-0 MW) and Nevada (3-10, 0-0 MW) aim to win their fourth game of the season at Mackay Stadium on Saturday night. The game can be viewed on ESPN2. And to a man, a peer, and trusted contact, all believe that Rainbows head coach Nick Rolovich will show well against his former employer. The thing is I believe that too. That coach Rolo will show well. It is his 80-degree football player personnel that are at the heart of the assessment of what they are and are not capable of.

Rolovich knows what it takes to be successful at Mackay. He knows that 4500 feet above sea level, the accustomed air and oxygen quality the Warriors have only played at this year and are accustomed too. Rolo knows that is is going to be 40 degrees colder than the games he and his players have taken part in this year, all on the big island. And yet coach Rolovich is 1-2 vs. Nevada with a win in his inaugural season of 2016 and consecutive losses in 2017 & ’18.

UH quarterback Cole McDonald can sling the ball. He has a bevy of receivers that can run and catch, as well. McDonald is averaging 329.3 yards per game which ranks No. 8 nationally and No. 2 in the Mountain West. But the what, the where and the how heavy will the Hawaii personnel be breathing in the third and fourth quarters will ultimately be the difference in the game.

UH is 7-13 in road/neutral games under head coach Nick Rolovich. The school owns a 14-42 (.250) all-time MW mark — 7-21 (.250) in home games and 7-21 (.250) in road games. The Warriors have been significantly more successful against the number on the Big Island.

Hawaii, with or without coach Rolo has lost 10 consecutive games in the state of Nevada (0-5 vs. Nevada, 0-5 vs. UNLV).

There are a large number of Wolf faithful currently sitting at 4500 feet, starring into a Sierras Mountain sky, knowing that winter is approaching. Historically Hawaii has rarely played well in Reno. The Warriors are 4-9 ATS last 13 on the road under their current coaching staff and Rolovich is 0-5 SU with no covers in his last three games as the opponent at Mackay.

Nevada should not be mistaken for a defensive group. They also should be mistaken for a defenseless one like Hawaii.

The offensive front of Nevada controls the trench and as a result, Nevada uses their running backs to own time of possession and wear down the Rainbows defensive front. Hawaii has shown very little propensity to run a balanced offense, nor have they offered evidence they could if they chose to.

The home team with the better defense who is accustomed to the air, the conditions with a savvy understanding of how to win at home. Ask Purdue.

NEVADA -2 points

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FINN ACC GAME OF THE WEEK (14-6)
Game: (115) WAKE FOREST at (116) BOSTON COLLEGE
Date/Time: Sep 28 2019 3:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: BOSTON COLLEGE 6.5 (-110)

View Analysis

PLAY: Boston College +6.5 (play good to +4)
4% confidence rating

(115) WAKE FOREST at (116) BOSTON COLLEGE

BOSTON COLLEGE +6.5

[B*mb07]

Augie J - BYU Utah St Vandy Dime Man - Top S Miss Reg Buff Toledo Wyom Clemson Over on 3 (Akron Charl Liberty) Under Utah Champagne - Top Vandy Reg Temple Nevada Kans St Liberty Under S Carolina Philly Guy - Mich Virginia Tex A&M

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Rainman - 5* Smu Wash 3* Oreg St Temple Troy Reg WI Marshall

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Green Bay Monster sports

Max play release 6 pt tease Auburn -2/Arizona even

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STEVE BUDIN - CEO
Saturday's Play
The Cali-Cartel has a 50 Dime play on Temple at home over Georgia Tech. The Owls are -8 1/2 as I put my site live at 7:30 eastern.

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Lenny Stevens

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20* Rutgers
20* Kansas St
10* Temple
10* Arizona
10* Ohio St

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Kelso

100 Ohio State