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Patriots -7
Chiefs under
Patriots -7
Chiefs under
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SuperContest Top 5 Most-Selected teams
KC -6.5 at DET (by 1,463 contestants)
NE -7 at BUF (picked by 930)
MIN +1.5 at CHI (861)
DAL -2.5 at NO (845, though #5 team is NO at 812)
SuperContest Gold Top 5 Most-Selected
KC -6.5 at DET
MIA +15.5 v. LAC
WAS +3 at NYG
And a 4-way tie for #4 ...
CAR +4.5 at HOU
NO +2.5 v. DAL
TEN +4 at ATL
MIN +1.5 at CHIComment
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Top 5 Picks for Circa Sports Million
9-6 overall, 5-0 last week
Chiefs -6.5
Vikings +2
Patriots -7
Saints +2.5
Texans -4Comment
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Root
Mill- Wash
No limit- Bears
Perfect- Lions
Inner circle- Bills
Pinnacle- Arizona.Comment
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Doc's Sports Consensus Picks
CONS:9/29/19
NFL
5 #251 Take Car +4.5 ov Hou,
6 #257 Take LAC -15 ov Mia,
6 #260 Take Ind -6.5 ov Oak,
8 #267 Take TB +9 ov LAR
5 #269 Take Sea -5 ov Ari,
6 #273 Take Jax/Den UNDER 37.5Comment
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Micah Roberts
FORMER VEGAS Bookmaker
YESTERDAY 2:46 PM
ATLANTA -3.5
TENNESSEE @ ATLANTA | 9/29 | 1:00 PM EDT
Both these teams have way underachieved so far, and it’s only Week 4. The Titans offense has looked out of sync the past two weeks following its opening blowout win at Cleveland. The Falcons have at least shown some fight the past two weeks with a 24-20 home win against the Eagles and a 27-24 loss at Indy last week. I’ll take the Falcons at home to cover.
8-3 IN LAST 11 ATL ATS PICKS | +469
11-7 IN LAST 18 TEN ATS PICKS | +314
R.J. White
SUPER STAT GEEK
FRI 9/27
TENNESSEE +4
TENNESSEE @ ATLANTA | 9/29 | 1:00 PM EDT
A lot of reasons to like the Titans here. The Falcons are 0-12 ATS in their last 12 matchups against AFC teams, and they just suffered a big blow on defense (sound familiar?) with the Keanu Neal injury. The Atlanta has struggled with turnovers (7) while Tennessee's hasn't (1). The Titans are coming off a minibye after losing on Thursday night, and I think they have the coaching edge, plus a good enough defense (eighth in points allowed per drive) to slow down the Falcons enough.
11-4 IN LAST 15 NFL ATS PICKS | +659
24-12 IN LAST 36 ATL ATS PICKS | +1065
19-10 IN LAST 29 TEN ATS PICKS | +783
Emory Hunt
THE CZAR OF THE PLAYBOOK
THU 9/26
TENNESSEE +4
TENNESSEE @ ATLANTA | 9/29 | 1:00 PM EDT
Losing safety Keanu Neal is a huge blow to the Falcons defense, which has played better than expected this season. His loss shouldn't affect Atlanta's ability to pressure the quarterback, which is what the Falcons will need to do. The Titans have to hope that their extended week of prep for this game has helped them solve some of their protection issues. I believe they have and that this game will be closer than many expect.
5-0 IN LAST 5 ATL ATS PICKS | +500
2-1 IN LAST 3 TEN ATS PICKS | +90Comment
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R.J. White
SUPER STAT GEEK
FRI 9/27
KANSAS CITY -6.5
KANSAS CITY @ DETROIT | 9/29 | 1:00 PM EDT
The Chiefs are dealing with a few key injuries, but the absence of Tyreek Hill hasn't slowed them down yet and they still took it to Baltimore while dealing with issues to Eric Fisher and Damien Williams. I think Detroit has been underrated and have been on them each week from the jump, but I don't know how their offense, which is 23rd in points scored per drive, keeps up here with a Chiefs offense that can score whatever they want. With late news that Matthew Stafford is dealing with a hip injury, which has him listed as questionable, that's even more reason to love the Chiefs here.
11-4 IN LAST 15 NFL ATS PICKS | +659
12-7 IN LAST 19 KC ATS PICKS | +440
5-3 IN LAST 8 DET ATS PICKS | +153
Brett Anderson
THE DOG WHISPERER
THU 9/26
KANSAS CITY -6.5
KANSAS CITY @ DETROIT | 9/29 | 1:00 PM EDT
This will be Patrick Mahomes’ first indoor game as a pro after playing his first 20 games outdoors, and that could be bad news for the Lions. Mahomes played four indoor games in college ... and averaged 492 passing yards and 4.75 TDs per game in them. The Lions are unbeaten, but also aren't really that far from being 0-3. Detroit doesn’t have the firepower to hang with this Chiefs offense. With the line at less than a touchdown, lay the points.
6-2-1 IN LAST 9 NFL PICKS | +380
Micah Roberts
FORMER VEGAS Bookmaker
THU 9/26
OVER 54.5
KANSAS CITY @ DETROIT | 9/29 | 1:00 PM EDT
The Chiefs have gone Over in 16 of their last 21 road games, and this is a good spot at Detroit where I expect the trend to continue. Their average score has been 31-23 this season, and the Lions have shown they can put up some points as well, which will help the cause. The Chiefs defense shows little resistance. Look for an entertaining shootout, and take the Over.
5-1 IN LAST 6 DET O/U PICKS | +395
Mike Tierney
TOP DOG
THU 9/26
UNDER 54.5
KANSAS CITY @ DETROIT | 9/29 | 1:00 PM EDT
Kansas City's totals are creeping up week by week. This one is the highest of the season even though Detroit’s defense ranks 11th in yards allowed per pass. QB Patrick Mahomes might not have his way this time. An Over would snap a streak of a half-dozen Unders at home for the Lions. They gave up an average of 11 ppg in their last four outings of 2018 and have not allowed more than 24 points in regulation this season.
5-1 IN LAST 6 DET O/U PICKS | +390
Emory Hunt
THE CZAR OF THE PLAYBOOK
THU 9/26
KANSAS CITY -6.5
KANSAS CITY @ DETROIT | 9/29 | 1:00 PM EDT
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is on pace to throw for more than 6,000 yards, which would be the first time in NFL history that has been done. He'll continue at a record pace against a Lions team that is the most vulnerable undefeated team in the NFL right now because of a lack of an identity on offense. When that's a question against Kansas City, you don't have a shot to keep it close. Take the Chiefs.
12-8 IN LAST 20 KC ATS PICKS | +339Comment
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Paul Leiner
3000* Cleveland/Balt. Over 45Comment
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Marco D'Angelo
5% Bears -1Comment
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Warren Sharp
panthers
pitt over
nyg overComment
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Sharp Totals Club
2*Bills Under
2*Giants OverComment
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Lv wolf
under 44.5 miaComment
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bezobets
NFL: Denver Broncos -2.5 @ 1.87/-115 (3 Units)
NFL: Tennessee Titans +3.5 @ 1.88/-114 (2 Units)
NFL: Washington Redskins +3 @ 1.996/-110 (2 Units)
NFL: Chicago Bears ML @ 1.888/-113 (2 UnitsComment
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MTI
4.5-Star Redskins +3 over NY Giants The Giants came back from 18 points down to beat the Bucs as a 6-point road dog for their first win of the season last week. Tampa Bay played too conservatively with a lead and it cost them the victory. The Redskins were woefully inept on National TV vs the Bears on Monday Night Football. This is actually giving us good line value here. We are taking the road underdog Redskins.
Teams that are 1-2 on the season are 0-14 ATS as a home favorite vs a winless opponent that has more turnovers than takeaways on the season. The SDQL text is:
wins = 1 and losses =2 and o:wins = 0 and HF and oA(TOM)>=0 and season >= 1997
The Giants themselves are 0-13 ATS on turf when their line is within four points of pickem when they are off a road game in which more than 50 points were scored and they scored fewer than 45 of them. The SDQL text is:
team=Giants and -4<=line<=4 and surface=artificial and p:A and p
oints + pooints>50 and points<45 and date>=20060000
Note that the Giants have been an average of pickem, but they have lost by an average of 13.2 points. Since the start of the 2018 season, the Giants have been in this spot three times. The line was within three points of pick each time and they lost by at least two TDs each time.
It is also worth mentioning that the Giants are 0-9 ATS (-8.33 ppg) on turf off a road game in which they allowed more than 300 passing yards. The SDQL here is:
team=Giants and surface=artificial and p:A and po:PY>=300 and date>=20140914
In their three games this season, the Giants have allowed 35, 28 and 31 points, which means that their opponent went over their team total in each game. This is relevant because New York is 0-9 ATS as a favorite off a game as a dog when they are off two consecutive games with a positive DPA. The Giants lost each of their last seven in this spot straight up. Check it out with this SDQL text:
team=Giants and F and p
and 0=20101128
The Redskins have not squandered these rare win opportunities. Washington is 9-0 ATS when the line is within three points of pick, they are off a loss as a dog, and they are facing a team that allowed 400-plus yards in their last game. The SDQL here is:
team=Redskins and -3<=line<=3 and p and p:L and opo:TY >= 400 and date>=20051106
Washington won eight of the nine straight up, covering by an average of 10.1 ppg.
Finally, in the category of simple and straightforward; Washington is a perfect 8-0 ATS on the road after a SU and ATS home loss. In these eight road games, the Redskins are 7-1 straight up with the only loss by a 34-31 margin in overtime as a nine point dog to the Saints in New Orleans.
The Giants are not a good team, they just lost their only offensive threat and they are starting a rookie quarterback. Their defense allowed 499 yards last week to the Buccaneers and Tampa was trying to run the clock after they got a big lead. They allowed five sacks and only had 26:48 of possession time. The Redskins should capitalize on this opportunity for a win.
MTis FORECAST: Redskins 24 GIANTS 16Comment
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MTI
5-Star Patriots -7 over BILLS This is the first time all season that the Patriots have faced a team that is not winless and the Bills are 3-0. All this will do is ensure that the Bills will get the Patriots best effort. After all, this is for the division lead in the AFC East.
The Bills have had an easy slate so far, with the Jets, Giants and Bengals. However, they were trailing in all three games and they benefitted from a total of SEVEN turnovers in the three games. The Patriots, on the other hand, have never trailed this season and they have outscored their opponents by a score of 106-17. More importantly, the Patriots have outscored their opponents 54-0 in the first half, so all the opponents points were scored in garbage time. In fact, the Patriots have scored at least the first 20 points of every game they have played so far and they have not allowed a single offensive touchdown all season.
New England had the ball for 35:14 last week and this is a positive indicator. The Patriots are 11-0 ATS off a home game in which they had more than 34 minutes of possession time, winning by an average of 17.45 ppg and covering by an average of 10.91 ppg. The SDQL text is:
team=Patriots and p:H and p:TOP/60 > 34 and date>=20151213
New England is also 10-0 ATS on the road on turf after a game in which they had at least 2.75 as many passing yards as rushing yards, covering the number by a whopping 16.75 ppg. Check it out with this SDQL:
team=Patriots and A and surface=artificial and p:PY/p:RY >= 2.75 and date>=20111100
Lastly for the Patriots, we note that they are 10-0 ATS under Bill Belichick when they are on the road after a game as a home favorite in which they held their opponent to at least 100 yards fewer than their season-to-date average. The SDQL,
coach = Bill Belichick and team = Patriots and A and p:HF and po:TY-tA(po:TY) <= -100
reveals that the Patriots have exceeded the linesmakers expectations by an average of 12.05 ppg.
Buffalo also dominated the time-of-possession stat against the Bengals last week, but they are 0-8 ATS (-9.12 ppg) off a home win in which they had more than 34 minutes of possession time.
The SDQL text is:
Note that Buffalo lost every game straight up and they were the favorite in five of the eight. Buffalo needs turnovers to win and we dont see the Patriots turning the ball over in this spot. The Bills are 0-9 ATS when hosting a divisional opponent that has averaged less than one turnover per game and has allowed an average of fewer than 475 yards. The SDQL is:
team=Bills and H and DIV and oA(TO)<=1 and oA(o:TY) < 475 and date>=20071100
Buffalo has lost these nine games by an average of 21.1 points and has failed to cover by an average of 15.67 points. Fugly.
The Patriots finally an opponent that is worthy of their best effort. In week 16, when the Patriots are something like 14-0 and the Bills are something like 6-8, people will look back at this game and ask, how in the hell were the Patriots only a TD favorite over the Bills in week 4? New England should dominate and take no prisoners.
MTis FORECAST: Patriots 42 BILLS 0Comment
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