Service Plays Sunday 9/29/19

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MTI

4.5-Star Saints +2.5 over Cowboys Sean Payton became the head coach of the Saints in 2006. Over his long tenure the Saints are 38-16-2 ATS when they are facing a team with a better record. The SDQL is:

coach = Sean Payton and WP < o:WP

When their opponent is unbeaten, the Saints are a perfect 10-0 ATS under Payton. The SDQL here is:

coach = Sean Payton and WP < o:WP and o:losses =0

Since the start of the 2017 season, the Saints have been in this spot three times. They were the dog each time and they won straight up each time.

In addition, the Saints are 12-0 ATS (+7.88 ppg) when they are off a game as a as a road dog and they are facing a team that is averaging more than 32 minutes of possession time, 13-0 ATS (+10.38 ppg) vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a game as a dog in which more than 48 points were scored, and 8-0 ATS (+11.12 ppg) recently as a dog off a win.

The Cowboys have won and covered their first three games vs the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins. These teams have one win between them and that was the Giants big comeback win over the Bucs last week. This is a huge jump in class.

Dallass trend number six from the 2019 KillerSports.com NFL Annual reads, The Cowboys are 0-20 ATS (-10.22 ppg) when the line is within 3 of pick on turf and they are off a home game in which fewer than 36 percent of their opponents first downs were from third down.

In the Cowboys last two games in this spot, they lost 28-6 getting two points and 23-0 getting three points.

In addition, the Cowboys are a non-divisional opponent the Cowboys are 0-10 ATS (-10.60 ppg) when the line is within three of pick off a home game in which fewer than 40 points were scored and 0-8 ATS (-14.00 ppg) on the road on turf after a SU and ATS win as a home favorite. The SDQL for the second of this pair is:

team=Cowboys and A and surface=artificial and p:H and p:F and p:W and p:ATSW and season >= 2007

Last season, Dallas lost in Seattle and Indianapolis in this spot and they failed to cover by more than a TD in every one of the eight games. The Superdome will be rockin. We are on the Saints.

MTis FORECAST: SAINTS 31 Cowboys 10

[GetTheseDimes]

Ferringo 7* Pats -7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

R.J. White
SUPER STAT GEEK
THU 9/26
WASHINGTON +3
WASHINGTON @ N.Y. GIANTS | 9/29 | 1:00 PM EDT
Daniel Jones was undeniably awesome in his first start, and even without Saquon Barkley, the Giants can score points against a Washington defense that has struggled. But the Washington offense played well in the first two weeks of the season, and it's unlikely the Giants defense will offer the same type of resistance the Bears showed on Monday night. The Giants also don't have a great home-field advantage based on recent performance. So if Washington is more like the team from Weeks 1-2, we're getting great value. If these teams are even, we're still getting some value too.

11-4 IN LAST 15 NFL ATS PICKS | +659
16-10 IN LAST 26 WAS ATS PICKS | +496

5-3 IN LAST 8 NYG ATS PICKS | +164


Micah Roberts
FORMER VEGAS Bookmaker
THU 9/26
N.Y. GIANTS -3
WASHINGTON @ N.Y. GIANTS | 9/29 | 1:00 PM EDT
To be fair to the Redskins 0-3 record, it should be noted that they were all to upper-echelon teams, but it’s their defense allowing 31 ppg that has made their rating drop each week. Now they have to contend with the idea of possibly not having Case Keenum starting (foot) which would mean Colt McCoy and another rating drop. On the other side, the Giants offense looked sharp as Daniel Jones got more comfortable. I’m on the inspired Giants in his home debut.

2-1 IN LAST 3 NYG ATS PICKS | +85


Emory Hunt
THE CZAR OF THE PLAYBOOK
THU 9/26
WASHINGTON +3
WASHINGTON @ N.Y. GIANTS | 9/29 | 1:00 PM EDT
Rookie quarterback Daniel Jones had a sensational debut against the Bucs on Sunday, scoring the game-winning touchdown. Meanwhile his counterpart this week, Case Keenum, is coming off his worst game of the season, against the Bears. What was lost in his terrible performance was how well the Redskins played defensively. Without Saquon Barkley in the Giants' lineup, a lot of pressure will be on the rookie quarterback in this game. Take Washington to cover.

13-8 IN LAST 21 WAS ATS PICKS | +401

5-4 IN LAST 9 NYG ATS PICKS | +57


Mike Tierney
TOP DOG
WED 9/25
UNDER 49
WASHINGTON @ N.Y. GIANTS | 9/29 | 1:00 PM EDT
New York rookie QB Daniel Jones was the bomb in his coming-out party last Sunday, but he piled on against Tampa Bay’s unprepared defense. Washington’s isn’t much better, but it should hold a green QB without his main asset (the injured Saquon Barkley) to a reasonable number. The Redskins’ pedestrian offense will do its part. Both teams have trended Over, but this number exceeds all other betting totals this season involving them.

3-0 IN LAST 3 WAS O/U PICKS | +300

[Can'tPickAWinner]

INSIDER SPORTS REPORT

4* Denver-2.5

3* Oakland+7

3* Minnesota+2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Adam Silverstein
FLORIDA FAVORITE
11:01 AM
HOUSTON -5
CAROLINA @ HOUSTON | 9/29 | 1:00 PM EDT
Kyle Allen dominated the Cardinals, true. The Texans are not the Cardinals. This is a talented albeit it inconsistent defense, but what Houston does have is a ferocious pass rush that should keep Allen on his toes. If he has to play keep up with Deshaun Watson & Co., do you really think Allen is not going to get flustered and fall into a couple mistakes? The Texans are not getting much respect with this line, even though it was lower earlier in the week. Truth is that I think Houston could win by double if everything shakes its way.

12-9-1 IN LAST 22 NFL ATS PICKS | +207
4-3-1 IN LAST 8 HOU ATS PICKS | +67


Larry Hartstein
SENIOR ANALYST
THU 9/26
CAROLINA +4
CAROLINA @ HOUSTON | 9/29 | 1:00 PM EDT
Wish I'd jumped on this earlier but I'll still take the revitalized Panthers with new quarterback Kyle Allen. Cam Newton playing hurt was holding back this team. Houston's secondary can be exploited by the Panthers' speedy receivers. Grab the points.

11-5 IN LAST 16 NFL ATS PICKS | +553
15-10-1 IN LAST 26 HOU ATS PICKS | +409


R.J. White
SUPER STAT GEEK
THU 9/26
HOUSTON -4
CAROLINA @ HOUSTON | 9/29 | 1:00 PM EDT
The lookahead line was Texans -5.5, so it appears the market has a lot of faith that Kyle Allen can continue to shine on the road this week. I'm playing against that optimism with this pick; Houston is top 10 in points per drive despite playing some good defenses, and they're a relatively healthy team. If a healthy Cam Newton was playing in this matchup, wouldn't the line be no worse than Texans -3? I think we're getting a ton of value by backing the Texans in a matchup I think the home team should be favored by seven.

11-4 IN LAST 15 NFL ATS PICKS | +659
19-13-2 IN LAST 34 HOU ATS PICKS | +477

6-4 IN LAST 10 CAR ATS PICKS | +163


Micah Roberts
FORMER VEGAS Bookmaker
THU 9/26
OVER 47.5
CAROLINA @ HOUSTON | 9/29 | 1:00 PM EDT
Carolina QB Kyle Allen has put at least 33 points on the board in his two career starts, and they are the only two wins the Panthers have had in their last 11 games. Last week at Arizona, he threw four TDs and I was impressed with just about everything he did. He does something Cam Newton couldn't do lately: move the ball effectively, throw accurately and get respect from the defense. This makes Christian McCaffrey more dangerous. They'll set the pace and Houston will keep up. Over is the play.


Emory Hunt
THE CZAR OF THE PLAYBOOK
THU 9/26
HOUSTON -4.5
CAROLINA @ HOUSTON | 9/29 | 1:00 PM EDT
Carolina got great play from quarterback Kyle Allen last week against the Cardinals, as Cam Newton is still recovering from an injury. The Panthers offense looked as diverse and versatile as we expected it to look coming into the season. You can call Houston the Cardiac Texans, as every week they are playing in a nail-biter. This week look for the Houston defense to take control early and remain in control throughout. Take the Texans.

5-4-1 IN LAST 10 HOU ATS PICKS | +54


Mike Tierney
TOP DOG
WED 9/25
UNDER 46.5
CAROLINA @ HOUSTON | 9/29 | 1:00 PM EDT
Kyle Allen dazzled in his 2019 debut for Carolina. Of course, he is preferable to a starter -- in this case Cam Newton (foot) -- with a limp. Let’s hold off on anointing him as the next great young QB. Unlike in-the-dark Arizona last week, the Texans have video on him. And they have a ferocious pass rush commandeered by J.J. Watt. Do not expect an Allen sequel. Plus, the Panthers’ defense ranks fourth, so it should contain QB Deshaun Watson and crew. The last five Texans home games have gone Under.

6-2 IN LAST 8 HOU O/U PICKS | +380

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ELITE SPORTS PICKS

Tennessee+3.5

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NATIONAL SPORTS SERVICE

5* Detroit

3* Seattle

3* New Orleans

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5 star Baller

Falcons -3

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Bill Marzano
VETERAN HANDICAPPER
FRI 9/27
NEW ENGLAND -7
NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO | 9/29 | 1:00 PM EDT
The Patriots have dominated this series, winning 30 of the last 33 meetings. New England is dealing with some key injuries but its defense has been dominant. Tom Brady has seven TDs and no INTs. Look for the Pats to force Josh Allen into 1-2 turnovers. Back the Pats to cover in a lower-scoring game.


Tom Fornelli
#TRUSTTHEPROCESS
THU 9/26
UNDER 42.5
NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO | 9/29 | 1:00 PM EDT
While I think the Bills' perfect start is a bit of Fool's Gold, there's a reason I'm hesitant to lay the points with the Pats here. It's because Buffalo's defense is legit. And so is New England's. Maybe the Patriots steamroll Buffalo here, but whatever the final outcome, I don't expect to see 43 points scored.

5-1 IN LAST 6 NFL O/U PICKS | +390

Brett Anderson
THE DOG WHISPERER
THU 9/26
UNDER 42.5
NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO | 9/29 | 1:00 PM EDT
These are two Top 5 defenses in both points and yards allowed, and of their six combined games, five have gone Under (the Bills are the only team in the league that’s had all three games go Under). Maybe the Patriots defense gives up its first touchdown of the season, but it’s hard to imagine Josh Allen finding the end zone often, and the Pats offense might not be at full strength with Julian Edelman nursing a rib injury. Take the Under.

6-2-1 IN LAST 9 NFL PICKS | +380

Emory Hunt
THE CZAR OF THE PLAYBOOK
THU 9/26
NEW ENGLAND -7
NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO | 9/29 | 1:00 PM EDT
The two best teams in the AFC East meet on Sunday. This game will feature the two best defenses in the division as well. Look for Buffalo's defense to compete throughout the game, keeping the Bills within a score at all times. The only concern is whether or not Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen will help the Patriots extend that lead. I trust that he will. Take New England to cover.


Hank Goldberg
HAMMER
WED 9/25
NEW ENGLAND -7
NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO | 9/29 | 1:00 PM EDT
I love New England giving only 7. They're going to put a spy on Josh Allen, who does everything for Buffalo. The Pats have not given up an offensive touchdown and I wouldn't be surprised if that continued Sunday. This Pats defense is outstanding.

11-7 IN LAST 18 NFL ATS PICKS | +327
6-1 IN LAST 7 BUF ATS PICKS | +492

4-1 IN LAST 5 NE ATS PICKS | +294


R.J. White
SUPER STAT GEEK
TUE 9/24
BUFFALO +7
NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO | 9/29 | 1:00 PM EDT
It always feel like playing with fire when you go against the Patriots, but the script says this is going to be a low-scoring game between two of the best defenses in the league. The Patriots haven't allowed an offensive touchdown yet this season, and while the Bills can't quite match that excellence, they will face a Patriots offense that has had to deal with several injuries and might not have Julian Edelman for this game. It hasn't mattered at all so far, but this Bills team is better than the Dolphins and Jets squads the Patriots just steamrolled.

11-4 IN LAST 15 NFL ATS PICKS | +659
7-3 IN LAST 10 BUF ATS PICKS | +370

2-1 IN LAST 3 NE ATS PICKS | +90


R.J. White
SUPER STAT GEEK
TUE 9/24
UNDER 42
NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO | 9/29 | 1:00 PM EDT
These are two teams with better defenses than offenses; the Patriots rank first in just about any category you can find, while the Bills are top three in points allowed per drive, net yards per pass attempt and creating turnovers. That defensive dominance is why the Under is 3-0 in Bills games this year, and it would be 3-0 in Pats games too if not for two TDs by the Jets defense, one on a pick-six thrown by New England's backup QB. The Pats defense hasn't even allowed a TD since the AFC Championship Game. Expect these two teams to slug it out in a low-scoring game.

19-12 IN LAST 31 NFL PICKS | +577
5-1 IN LAST 6 NE O/U PICKS | +389

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brett Anderson
THE DOG WHISPERER
YESTERDAY 6:53 PM
OVER 45.5
OAKLAND @ INDIANAPOLIS | 9/29 | 1:00 PM EDT
It’s doubtful T.Y. Hilton plays, but the Colts should still be able to put up points against a bad Raiders defense. The key to the total is on the other side of the ball, where the Colts could be without four starters: Darius Leonard (out), Malik Hooker (out), Pierre Desir (questionable) and Jabaal Sheard (questionable, as is Sheard’s backup, Al-Quadin Muhammad). Even with a healthier defense, the Colts' total went Over in two of three games; the Over is the play here.

6-2-1 IN LAST 9 NFL PICKS | +380

Mike Tierney
TOP DOG
FRI 9/27
OAKLAND +6.5
OAKLAND @ INDIANAPOLIS | 9/29 | 1:00 PM EDT
The line has dipped from an even seven points but could be headed further south if Indy’s potentially grim injury situation becomes dire. They key is WR T.Y. Hilton (quad), who is questionable. Career backup QB Jacoby Brissett would dearly miss his top target. The Colts’ defense is surely in a pickle without three contributors, chiefly All-Pro LB Darius Leonard (concussion). It’s about time for Oakland QB David Carr to get past the departure of WR Antonio Brown and become content with a decent batch of receivers without A.B.

9-8 LAST 17 NFL SIDES | +11
8-3 IN LAST 11 IND ATS PICKS | +474


Tom Fornelli
#TRUSTTHEPROCESS
THU 9/26
OAKLAND +7
OAKLAND @ INDIANAPOLIS | 9/29 | 1:00 PM EDT
The Raiders were blown out on the road by Minnesota last week, but I like their chances a lot better this Sunday in Indianapolis. The Colts defense has looked a little soft so far this year, and it will allow the Raiders to stay within striking range in this one.

9-5 IN LAST 14 NFL PICKS | +354
2-1 IN LAST 3 IND ATS PICKS | +90


Emory Hunt
THE CZAR OF THE PLAYBOOK
THU 9/26
INDIANAPOLIS -7
OAKLAND @ INDIANAPOLIS | 9/29 | 1:00 PM EDT
Things are not looking good for the Raiders offensively, mainly quarterback Derek Carr, who does a great job of keeping both teams in the game. In order for Oakland's fortunes to improve, he has to play better. Also, the Raiders defense has to find ways to communicate in the secondary. Meanwhile, no one is talking about how efficient and effective the Colts offense has been under quarterback Jacoby Brissett. He is coming off of his best game of the season against the Falcons. Look for the Indianapolis defense to shut down any threat coming from Oakland.

3-1 IN LAST 4 IND ATS PICKS | +190

10-8-2 IN LAST 20 OAK ATS PICKS | +111


Hank Goldberg
HAMMER
WED 9/25
INDIANAPOLIS -6.5
OAKLAND @ INDIANAPOLIS | 9/29 | 1:00 PM EDT
The Raiders are 1-11 in their last 12 road games and last year they averaged 12.3 points on the road. They're really beat up too. They have no linebackers. Jacoby Brissett is playing well; he had 16 straight completions last week. Lay the points.

11-7 IN LAST 18 NFL ATS PICKS | +327
3-1 IN LAST 4 OAK ATS PICKS | +195


Larry Hartstein
SENIOR ANALYST
TUE 9/24
INDIANAPOLIS -6.5
OAKLAND @ INDIANAPOLIS | 9/29 | 1:00 PM EDT
The Raiders are playing their second straight on the road, where they are 1-8 straight-up under Jon Gruden. Look for the Colts to run all over them just like the Vikings did last week when they averaged 5.6 yards per carry; Oakland had three linebackers leave with injuries last week. Lay it.

11-5 IN LAST 16 NFL ATS PICKS | +553
5-1 IN LAST 6 OAK ATS PICKS | +390

7-3-1 IN LAST 11 IND ATS PICKS | +371


R.J. White
SUPER STAT GEEK
TUE 9/24
INDIANAPOLIS -6.5
OAKLAND @ INDIANAPOLIS | 9/29 | 1:00 PM EDT
If we can get this line at under a touchdown, I'm hopping on it. The Colts have looked just fine with Jacoby Brissett at the helm, ranking fifth in points scored per drive despite being 26th in average starting position on offense. The Raiders were able to beat a bad Broncos team at home but have looked pretty bad otherwise, especially with a defense that ranks 29th in points allowed per drive and 30th in net yards per pass attempt. Oakland has to cross the pond after this matchup for a London game, so this is a bad spot for them. I expect the Colts to keep winning.

11-4 IN LAST 15 NFL ATS PICKS | +659
21-8-1 IN LAST 30 IND ATS PICKS | +1206

5-1 IN LAST 6 OAK ATS PICKS | +395

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bill Marzano
VETERAN HANDICAPPER
FRI 9/27
L.A. CHARGERS -15.5
L.A. CHARGERS @ MIAMI | 9/29 | 1:00 PM EDT
The Dolphins could go down as one of the worst teams in NFL history. The Chargers are banged-up but they're playing a team that can't score, a team that's been scored 133-16 this season. I like the Chargers in the first quarter, first half and the game.


Emory Hunt
THE CZAR OF THE PLAYBOOK
THU 9/26
L.A. CHARGERS -15.5
L.A. CHARGERS @ MIAMI | 9/29 | 1:00 PM EDT
Here's another rather large spread for a Dolphins game. Last week, Miami played inspired ball against the Cowboys for at least a quarter before things got out of hand. I can definitely see the same thing happening in this one against the Chargers. The reason you see this happening to Miami is due to a lack of depth. Once that improves, so will the Dolphins' chances of keeping these games close for four quarters instead of just one. Until then, take the Chargers.

4-2-1 IN LAST 7 MIA ATS PICKS | +180

6-4 IN LAST 10 LAC ATS PICKS | +162


R.J. White
SUPER STAT GEEK
TUE 9/24
MIAMI +16
L.A. CHARGERS @ MIAMI | 9/29 | 1:00 PM EDT
Hi, I'll be the sucker that takes the Dolphins to finally cover a spread. I get why you can't make the number high enough when they play the Patriots and Cowboys, two of the best teams in the league. But the Chargers haven't played well at all this year, and are an overtime period away from being 0-3. Now they have to fly cross country and play in the Miami heat with a roster that continues to deal with significant injuries. The implied final score of this game is 30-14, and I'm not banking on that kind of offense from the Chargers, even against this Miami defense.

11-4 IN LAST 15 NFL ATS PICKS | +659
3-1 IN LAST 4 LAC ATS PICKS | +190

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TKwins
3* Buffalo +7
3* Arizona +5.5
3* Minnesota +1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gambling gator


OVER Seat/Ari
DEN
UNDER Jack/Den

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kick off sports

Nyg -3
dal -3
hou -5

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Lee Sterling
35 over Dolphins
30 Bills, Broncs
25 browns, Texans