Thursday 10-3-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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NFL
Long Sheet

Week 5

Thursday, October 3

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LA RAMS (3 - 1) at SEATTLE (3 - 1) - 10/3/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 196-241 ATS (-69.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 196-241 ATS (-69.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 90-122 ATS (-44.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 141-190 ATS (-68.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 150-191 ATS (-60.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 70-103 ATS (-43.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
SEATTLE is 38-61 ATS (-29.1 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 45-68 ATS (-29.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 3-1 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 3-1 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL

Week 5

Trend Report

Thursday, October 3

Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Seattle's last 13 games
Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games at home
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Seattle is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Seattle's last 18 games when playing LA Rams
Seattle is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against LA Rams
Seattle is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games when playing at home against LA Rams

Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
LA Rams is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 6 games
LA Rams is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
LA Rams is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 6 games on the road
LA Rams is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
LA Rams is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of LA Rams's last 18 games when playing Seattle
LA Rams is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Seattle
LA Rams is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 7 games when playing on the road against Seattle

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NFL

Week 5


Rams (3-1) @ Seattle (3-1)— Rams turned ball over seven times (-5) in their last two games; they got shredded for 55 points in home loss to Bucs LW- Tampa Bay converted 8-13 3rd down plays. Under McVay, LA is 4-3 ATS coming off a loss, 3-1 as road underdogs, 4-2 in NFC West road games. Seahawks are off to 3-1 start, despite trailing three of the four games at halftime; their foes converted only 9 of last 31 third down plays. Seattle is 4-9-1 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite; their last three games were all against rookie or backup QB’s. Rams won last three series games, scoring 42-33-36 points; they won three of last four visits to Seattle.

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NFL
Dunkel

Week 5


Thursday, October 3

LA Rams @ Seattle

Game 301-302
October 3, 2019 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
132.800
Seattle
131.666
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 1
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 2
49
Dunkel Pick:
LA Rams
(+2); Under

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Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (PK)

Defending NFC champion Los Angeles fell from the unbeaten ranks in stunning fashion, giving up a 50-plus burger as nearly double-digit Week 4 chalk. The Rams (3-1 SU and ATS) trailed Tampa Bay 21-0 midway through the second quarter, rallied within 45-40 midway through the fourth, but ultimately lost 55-40 giving 9 points at home.

Meanwhile, Seattle bounced back from a Week 3 upset home loss to a New Orleans team minus Drew Brees. The Seahawks (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) went to Arizona as 5.5-point favorites Sunday and exited with an easy 27-10 victory.

Both teams operate on a short week for this Thursday night NFC West clash.

“A nightmare game for the Rams’ defense against Tampa,” Murray said. “The public will likely look to back the Rams anyway. Our look-ahead number closed Rams -2.5.”

The game then reopened Sunday afternoon as a pick ‘em and moved to Rams -1 an hour later. Shortly thereafter, the line went back to pick.

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SPREAD TO BET NOW: L.A. RAMS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-2, 49)

Wild line movement has been the name of the game when capping this NFC West war for Thursday night. But, that’s what a 55-40 loss to the Bucs will do to your public appeal. The Rams opened as big as 1.5-point favorites for this primetime game but one-sided money on the Seahawks has flipped this spread over the fence and has Seattle giving two points at home.

If you’re not rattled by the WTF result against Tampa Bay, the time to bet Los Angeles is now. Oddsmakers expect the public to pile on the Rams come Thursday, which means this game could finish up closer to the pick’em come kickoff.

I understand where the early attraction is for Seattle: a primetime home game in the rain (expected) in front of the 12th Man against a QB in Jared Goff who struggles away from home. But, can we trust the Seahawks results through four weeks? They’ve squeaked out a win at home over Cincinnati, barely beat Pittsburgh without Ben Roethlisberger, lost to Teddy B and the Saints, and looked better than they were versus Arizona last Sunday. Those are some terrible defenses. But, then again, L.A. just gave up a double nickel to the Buccos.

If you’re riding the Rams, get ‘em while their hot… errr… cold.

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301LA RAMS -302 SEATTLE
LA RAMS are 7-24 ATS (-19.4 Units) after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse since 1992.

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Tech Trends - Week 5

Thursday, Oct. 3

L.A. RAMS at SEATTLE (FOX, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Rams on 5-1 SU and spread run in reg season since late 2018. Russell Wilson 6-0 as home dog since 2012, however. Rams have won SU last three in series but Hawks have covered 4 of last 5 meetings. Seattle on 9-4 “over” reg season run.
Tech Edge: Slight to Seahawks and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

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CARDIAC RUSSELL

In Week 3, Russel Wilson threw for over 400 yards at home versus the Saints secondary in the pouring rain. On Thursday, he’ll be back at CenturyLink Field facing an L.A. Rams defense that allowed 55 points to Jameis Winston (385 yards and four TDs) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Last year, Wilson tossed three TDs and ran for 92 yards on the road versus the Rams. With L.A. getting embarrassed last week, look for it to be tough sledding for the Seahawks’ running game versus a Rams run defense that still ranks eighth in DVOA.

With the Sean McVay & Co. able to put up points against a middle-of-the-pack Seattle defense, we’re taking the Over on Wilson’s 19.5 rushing yards and Over 30.5 pass attempts, as the Rams are averaging 37.5 pass attempts allowed through four games.

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NLDS - Cardinals at Braves
Kevin Rogers

2019 Head-to-Head Matchups (Atlanta 4-2, Under 4-2)

St. Louis vs. Atlanta (SunTrust Park)
May 14 – Cardinals 14, Braves 3 (Over 9)
May 15 – Braves 4, Cardinals 0 (Under 10)
May 16 – Braves 10, Cardinals 2 (Over 10)

Atlanta vs. St. Louis (Busch Stadium)
May 24 – Braves 5, Cardinals 2 (Under 10)
May 25 – Cardinals 6, Braves 3 (Under 9 ½)
May 26 – Braves 4, Cardinals 3 (Under 9)

The Braves (97-65) captured their second consecutive National League East title in spite of an 18-20 record to start 2019. Atlanta closed out the first half with a 36-17 record in the final 53 games prior to the All-Star break to run away with the division for back-to-back NL East championships for the first time since 2004-2005 (which actually concluded an 11-year stretch of division titles).

Ronald Acuna, Jr. and Freddie Freeman paced the Braves’ offense, which finished third in the National League with 855 runs. Acuna, Jr. didn’t fall off following Rookie of the Year honors in 2018 as the Braves’ center fielder hit a team-high 41 home runs and drove in 101 runs. Freeman posted 120 runs batted in, which ranked second in the National League behind Washington’s Anthony Rendon (126), while former MVP Josh Donaldson slugged 37 home runs following a rough 2018.

The Atlanta starting rotation was in question to begin the season, but the Braves put it together thanks to a breakout season from right-hander Mike Soroka (13-4, 2.68 ERA). Atlanta went 10-1 in Soroka’s 11 starts from June through July, while Soroka actually fared better on the road (7-1, 1.55 ERA) than at home (6-3, 4.14 ERA).

The Game 1 starter for the Braves didn’t appear on the roster until June but Dallas Keuchel (8-8, 3.75 ERA) gets the nod for the series opener. The 2015 American League Cy Young award winner caught fire in mid-August as Keuchel won five consecutive decisions, but closed the season with three straight losses. Keuchel didn’t face the Cardinals this season as he was still a free agent when these teams hooked up in May, but the number that sticks out is the 15-3 mark to the UNDER in his 18 starts.

The Cardinals (91-71) missed the playoffs the previous three seasons heading into 2019 and went through a merry-go-round atop the NL Central along with the Brewers and Cubs all season. St. Louis put together a 44-44 record prior to the All-Star break, but the Cardinals won 12 of 15 games to start the second half to take over first place in the division. The Redbirds clinched their first playoff berth since 2015 by sweeping the rival Cubs at Wrigley Field in late September with four wins by one run each.

The Diamondbacks surprisingly dealt All-Star first baseman Paul Goldschmidt to the Cardinals in the offseason and he paid immediate dividends in St. Louis. Goldschmidt hit three home runs against the Brewers in his second game with St. Louis and ended the 2019 campaign leading the Cardinals with 97 runs batted in, while playing in 161 games, which was a career-best.

Marcell Ozuna put together another solid season for the Cardinals after getting traded by the Marlins in 2018 as the left fielder drove in 89 runs in only 130 games. Shortstop Paul DeJong hit a career-high 30 home runs, as 11 different Cardinal hitters knocked out at least 10 home runs on the season (nine Braves went deep 10 or more times).

Miles Mikolas (9-14, 4.16 ERA) put together a stunning 18-4 season in 2018, but only won half that amount of his decisions in 2019 for St. Louis. The Cardinals actually finished with a winning record when the right-hander took the mound this season at 17-15, as Mikolas gets the nod in Game 1. Mikolas faced the Braves at Busch Stadium on May 24 as a -140 favorite, but he suffered the defeat in spite of striking out nine batters in seven innings, even though he allowed three runs in a 5-2 setback.

Jack Flaherty (11-8, 2.75 ERA) owned a 4.90 ERA on July 2 after giving up four earned runs in less than five innings of a 5-4 defeat at Seattle. Since July 7, the Cardinals’ right-hander has yielded 11 earned runs in 16 starts to drop his season ERA by over two runs. In nine of those outings, Flaherty didn’t give up a single run, while tossing seven innings or more 10 times in the past 16 trips to the mound. In two starts against the Braves this season, Flaherty gave up three earned runs in 12 innings of work, while beating Atlanta as a -125 road favorite, 14-3 on May 14.

The Braves won four of six matchups with the Cardinals this season, including capturing series victories at SunTrust Park and Busch Stadium. St. Louis destroyed Atlanta, 14-3 in the series opener at SunTrust on May 14, but the Braves won the next two games by a combined score of 14-2. The Braves topped the Cardinals, 5-2 on May 24 at Busch Stadium, but St. Louis bounced back the next night with four runs in the eighth inning to beat Atlanta, 6-3. The Cards held a 3-0 lead in the series finale heading to the ninth inning, but the Braves scored three runs to tie the game before Atlanta won it in the 10th, 4-3.

Atlanta has not advanced to the National League Championship Series since 2001 as the Braves have been bounced from the NLDS in seven straight tries, including in last year’s four-game defeat to the Dodgers. The Cardinals fell in four games to the Cubs in the 2015 NLDS in their previous postseason appearance, as they seek their first NLCS trip since 2014.

St. Louis knocked off Atlanta in the 2012 Wild Card round in their most recent playoff matchup, 6-3.

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NLDS - Nationals at Dodgers
Kevin Rogers

2019 Head-to-Head Matchups (Los Angeles 4-3, Under 4-2-1)

Washington vs. Los Angeles (Dodger Stadium)
May 9 – Nationals 6, Dodgers 0 (Under 7)
May 10 – Dodgers 5, Nationals 0 (Under 8 ½)
May 11 – Nationals 5, Dodgers 2 (Push 7)
May 12 – Dodgers 6, Nationals 0 (Under 7 ½)

Los Angeles vs. Washington (Nationals Park)
July 26 – Dodgers 4, Nationals 2 (Under 9 ½)
July 27 – Dodgers 9, Nationals 3 (Over 10 ½)
July 28 – Nationals 11, Dodgers 4 (Over 8 ½)

The Dodgers (106-56) were the class of the National League all season as Los Angeles seeks its third consecutive World Series appearance. Unfortunately, the Dodgers have no championships to speak of in the last two years after losing in seven games to the Astros in 2017 and getting bounced in five games to the Red Sox in 2018.

Los Angeles cruised to its seventh straight NL West title, while winning the most games in franchise history. The next closest team to the Dodgers in the division was Arizona, who still finished 21 games out of first place as nearly half the wins for Los Angeles this season (51) came against NL West foes. The Dodgers actually split their first 16 games of the season, which included suffering a six-game skid in April. However, Los Angeles stood at 60-29 on July 4, going on an incredible 52-21 run following the 8-8 start.

The Dodgers led the National League in runs scored (886), along with 59 home victories. Cody Bellinger put together a great argument for NL MVP this season as the Dodgers’ right fielder knocked out 47 home runs, drove in 115 runs, while batting .305 (all career-highs). First baseman Max Muncy equaled his home run total from 2018 with 35 round-trippers, while setting a career-high in RBI’s with 98. Left fielder Joc Pederson also excelled this season at the plate from a power perspective with 36 home runs and 74 runs batted in.

Three different Dodgers’ pitchers put up at least 14 wins this season, led by three-time Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw’s 16 victories. Los Angeles posted a 13-3 record in Kershaw’s 16 starts at Dodger Stadium this season, while the mark extends to 21-6 since July 2018. Kershaw defeated the Nationals in D.C. as a -185 road favorite in late July, 9-3 by tossing six innings and allowing two runs as Los Angeles owns a 5-1 record in his past six starts against Washington since 2016.

Fellow left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu (14-5, 2.32 ERA) started the season on fire for the Dodgers by winning eight of his first nine decisions. In fact, the Dodgers won 14 of Ryu’s 16 starts between May 7 and August 11, which included an 8-0 mark at Chavez Ravine. Ryu struggled during a three-start stretch in late August by allowing 18 earned runs in 14.2 innings of work, as the Dodgers went 0-3. Ryu shut down the Nationals in two starts this season by giving up one earned run in 14.2 innings, including eight shutout innings in a 6-0 shutout on May 12.

The Nationals (94-69) started the post-Bryce Harper era in a major slump by losing 31 of their first 50 games. Washington was destined for a long season, but the Nationals turned things around by finishing the first half at 28-11 to climb above .500 at the All-Star break. The Nationals won the final eight games of the regular season to clinch home-field advantage in the Wild Card against the Brewers, but it seemed like Washington would be one-and-done.

Milwaukee jumped on Nationals’ ace Max Scherzer for a pair of early home runs to take a 3-1 lead over Washington on Tuesday night. The Nationals’ offense finally got something going in the eighth inning to load the bases on Brewers’ closer Josh Hader with two outs. Juan Soto’s base hit to right field was misplayed by Milwaukee rookie Trent Grisham as three runs scored to give Washington a 4-3 lead and ultimately the victory as -170 home favorites.

Soto and third baseman Anthony Rendon carried the Washington offense this season by combining for 236 RBI’s and 34 home runs apiece. The next highest run producer for the Nationals was center fielder Victor Robles, who drove in 65 runs, but Washington finished with the second-highest run differential in the National League (+149) behind Los Angeles.

Scherzer (11-7, 2.92 ERA) posted 243 strikeouts this season, but did it in the fewest starts of his career (27). The three-time Cy Young winner struggled down the stretch by allowing 15 earned runs in his final four starts, while yielding two home runs in each of his last three appearances. Scherzer shut down the Dodgers in Los Angeles as a short underdog in May by tossing seven innings and yielding two runs in a 5-2 victory.

Stephen Strasburg (18-6, 3.32 ERA) made his first career relief appearance in Tuesday’s Wild Card win by posting three scoreless innings and striking out four. Strasburg put together his best season as a pro with 18 victories and 251 strikeouts, while Washington won 21 of his 33 starts in 2019. In two starts against the Dodgers this season, Strasburg gave up three earned runs in 13 innings, which included an 11-4 home victory in which he struck out nine batters in seven innings.

The Dodgers claimed four of seven matchups this season, as Los Angeles and Washington split a four-game set at Chavez Ravine in May. Three of those games were decided by shutout, including 5-0 and 6-0 wins by the Dodgers, while Patrick Corbin lifted the Nationals to a 6-0 triumph in the opener of that series. L.A. took two of three meetings in Washington in late July, as all seven matchups were decided by two runs or more on the season.

Los Angeles has advanced to the NLCS each of the last three seasons, as the most recent playoff matchup with Washington came in the 2016 NLDS. The Dodgers edged the Nationals in five games, but Los Angeles was bounced in the NLCS by Chicago in six games. Washington has not advanced to the NLCS since moving the franchise from Montreal in 2005, as three of the defeats in the NLDS since 2012 came in five games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Weather Report

Thursday, October 3

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915ST LOUIS -916 ATLANTA
ST LOUIS are 13-20 SU (-13.9 Units) in road games vs. excellent power teams - averaging 1.5 or more HR's/game in the current season.

917WASHINGTON -918 LA DODGERS
WASHINGTON is 75-45 SU (26.5 Units) vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the current season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Dunkel

Thursday, October 3

St. Louis @ Atlanta

Game 915-916
October 3, 2019 @ 5:02 pm

Dunkel Rating:
St. Louis
(Mikolas) 17.006
Atlanta
(Keuchel) 15.504
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
St. Louis
by 1 1/2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
-140
9
Dunkel Pick:
St. Louis
(+120); Under

Washington @ LA Dodgers

Game 917-918
October 3, 2019 @ 8:37 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
(Corbin) 17.390
LA Dodgers
(Buehler) 18.314
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-165
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
(-165); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 3

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ST LOUIS (91 - 71) at ATLANTA (97 - 65) - 5:02 PM
MILES MIKOLAS (R) vs. DALLAS KEUCHEL (L)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 12-21 (-16.4 Units) against the money line after shutting out their opponent over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 97-65 (+17.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 29-11 (+11.9 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season.
ATLANTA is 74-49 (+14.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ATLANTA is 74-51 (+13.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ATLANTA is 17-7 (+12.9 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 45-33 (+11.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ST LOUIS is 91-71 (+4.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 28-21 (+8.5 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
MIKOLAS is 41-23 (+13.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
ATLANTA is 31-44 (-25.3 Units) against the money line in playoff games since 1997.
KEUCHEL is 17-20 (-14.0 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
KEUCHEL is 3-9 (-10.7 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 4-2 (+2.8 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.8 Units)

MILES MIKOLAS vs. ATLANTA since 1997
MIKOLAS is 1-2 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 2.95 and a WHIP of 1.091.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-1. (+0.8 units)

DALLAS KEUCHEL vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
KEUCHEL is 0-2 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 11.00 and a WHIP of 1.444.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-2. (-2.3 units)

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WASHINGTON (94 - 69) at LA DODGERS (106 - 56) - 8:37 PM
PAT CORBIN (L) vs. CLAYTON KERSHAW (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 4-3 (+0.2 Units) against WASHINGTON this season
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.9 Units)

PAT CORBIN vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
CORBIN is 5-9 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 3.47 and a WHIP of 1.399.
His team's record is 7-12 (-4.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-11. (-4.3 units)

CLAYTON KERSHAW vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
KERSHAW is 13-3 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 2.65 and a WHIP of 0.986.
His team's record is 15-3 (+9.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 9-9. (+0.1 units)