Saturday 10-5-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Doc's Sports

Oct 05 '19, 4:30 PM in 9h
NCAA-F | Arizona vs Colorado
Play on: Colorado -3 -108 at pinnacle

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. #344 Colorado Buffaloes over Arizona (4:30p.m., Saturday, October 5 PAC-12 Network) Just do not trust Arizona, who will be playing this game on the road with quarterback issues. Colorado is 3-1 on the season with two impressive wins against Nebraska and Arizona and they will be able to win this game by 7-10 points. Arizona is 7-19 ATS in their last 26 road games. Colorado has found something with Mel Tucker as coach and he is giving this team confidence. That is something they have lacked for most of their tenure in the PAC-12.

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Jesse Schule

Oct 05 '19, 7:30 PM in 12h
NCAA-F | Michigan State vs Ohio State
Play on: Michigan State +21 -115 at Bovada

This is a Free NCAAF play on Michigan State.
The Spartans have lost by 20+ points to Ohio State in each of the last two seasons, but historically they have not been an easy opponent for the Buckeyes. Michigan State has won outright in 2015, 2013 and in 2011. The last time they were getting 20+ points in this matchup was in 2016, and they lost that game by a score of 17-16. The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings, and the road team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings. This year's Spartans team should be a lot better than the team that lost 26-6 to Ohio State last year. That game was also a lot closer than the final score would suggest, and the Spartans trailed by just three points at the beginning of the fourth quarter. Brian Lewerke finished the 2018 season with eight TD passes and 11 INTs in 11 starts. So far after four games this season he has 10 TD passes and just one INT. I'll take the points.
Take MSU.
GL,
Jesse Schule

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Jack Jones

Oct 05 '19, 7:30 PM in 12h
NCAA-F | Tulsa vs SMU
Play on: SMU -12½ -110 at betonline

Jack’s Free Pick Saturday: SMU -12.5
Oddsmakers have yet to catch up with how good the SMU Mustangs really are this season. They have opened 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS while covering the spread by a combined 70 points, or an average of 14 points per game. Now they are only laying 12.5 points at home to Tulsa Saturday in a game I expect them to win by two touchdowns or more.
SMU went on the road and beat TCU 41-38 as 7.5-point underdogs in Week 4. That’s a TCU team that has blasted everyone else they have faced thus far this season. If the Mustangs were going to have a letdown, it would have been last week. Instead, they handled their business with class, beating South Florida 48-21 as 7.5-point road favorites. Keep in mind they actually led that game 41-0 before calling off the dogs late.
Players are clearly buying in to what Sonny Dykes is preaching. This is a veteran team that returned 16 starters from last year, plus they added one of the best QB transfers in the country in Shane Buechele from Texas. Buechele is completing 69.4% of his passes for 1,385 yards with a 10-to-5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.8 yards per attempt.
Buechele leads a high-powered SMU offense that is averaging 44.4 points, 511 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play. They are averaging 15.1 points, 126 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play more than their opponents give up on average. SMU’s defense is also improved, holding opponents to 26.6 points, 363 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.
I do like this Tulsa team because they have a good defense. But they did give up 40 points to Oklahoma State. The problem with Tulsa is that they don’t have an offense. They are averaging just 21.5 points per game, 363 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play this season. They clearly do not have the firepower to hang with SMU in this one.
SMU also has a key advantage on defense up against Tulsa’s offense. SMU actually is No. 1 in the nation in sacks with 25 sacks already this season. They are bringing pressure and making life difficult on opposing offenses. Well, Tulsa ranks 122nd in the country in sacks allowed. The Golden Hurricane give up 4 sacks per game, and they were sacked 7 times by Wyoming last time out.
SMU is 10-2 ATS in Saturday home games over the last three seasons. The Mustangs are 8-1 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons. SMU should stay motivated due to losing 24-27 at Tulsa last year, so they want some revenge. Bet SMU Saturday.

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Rob Vinciletti

Oct 05 '19, 7:30 PM in 12h
NCAA-F | Tulsa vs SMU
Play on: Tulsa +13 -105 at betonline

The College Football comp Play is on Tulsa plus the 13 points. The Golden Hurricane have covered the last 5 after rushing for less than 100 yards and 9 of 11 on the road vs a winning team. SMU is in the Top 25 for the first time and these teams are on a 1-8 spread run when making their first top 25 appearance. Also of note is a powerful system that plays against 5-0 team off a spread win by 10 or more vs a conference team off a win. SMU has failed to cover 10 of 12 as a home favorite of 10 or more and the last 4 after playing South Florida. The Dog in this series has covered 13 of 16. Take Tulsa. On Saturday we have a Huge TIER 1 Executive level blowout going as well as our 100% SEC Game of the Year with a system that dates to 1986. We have a Pair of BIG 10 Power systems and the 23-0 College Total of the Month. We will also have more MLB Playoff Power systems. . For the free play its golden contender taking the points with the Golden Hurricanes of Tulsa +13. Rob V- GC Sports

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Dustin Hawkins

Oct 05 '19, 8:00 PM in 12h
NCAA-F | Pittsburgh vs Duke
Play on: Duke -5 -110 at 1BetVegas

1 Dimer on Duke -5 -110

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Info Plays

Oct 05 '19, 8:00 PM in 12h
NCAA-F | Pittsburgh vs Duke
Play on: UNDER 48½ -109

1* FREE INFO PLAY on Pittsburgh vs Duke under 48½ -109

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Ray Monohan

Oct 05 '19, 10:30 PM in 15h
NCAA-F | Washington vs Stanford
Play on: UNDER 52 -110

UNDER 52
Being that I'm a Pac 12 honk I'm always prone to picking a Pac 12 game whenever I find myself looking for a 5* free play to share with customers on College football Saturday's! We have a nice matchup on Saturday night when the Washington Huskies visit the Stanford Cardinal. The Huskies are -16.5-point favorites and the over-under is set at 52. The game OPENED with UW a -13pt favorite and the O/U was at 50. The Dawgs come into this one (4-1), and are winners of 3 straight by double-digits. They grabbed a nice 28-14 win over rival USC last week. Stanford on the other hand just can't right the ship this year. At one point they lost three straight. All by double digits to USC, UCF and Oregon. They did take down the Beavers last week.
They key for me in this matchup are the two teams' rushing attacks and defense. UW can really road grade. Salvon Ahmed had 157 yards last week and the Dawgs love to keep their offense balanced. As for the Stanford Cardinal, their senior RB Cameron Scarlett (413 rushing yards) hasn't posted a 100-yard game this season but has topped 90 three times. Washington averages 190 RUSH yards per game, and Stanford averages 115 RUSH yards per game, and all this running helps with clock management and moving the time along.
Washington hasn't won in Stanford since 2007, and the last time these two teams played at Stanford - Stanford won 30-22 in 2017. Washington notched a 27-23 home win last season and that's the type of game and score I'm expecting Saturday. Some trends to consider. Under is 7-3 in Stanford's last 10 home games and it's 45-21 in Stanford's last 66 games in October. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games against an opponent in the Pacific 12 conference, and the total has gone UNDER in 13 of Washington's last 19 games.
If the Stanford defense can buckle down and not allow the big play that Washington loves to go for, they will have UW on edge all night long. If the Huskies are going to stay close to Oregon in the Pac-12 North, they'll need to figure out a way to win in Stanford.
I'm on the UNDER 52.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Saturday 5* Free NCAA Football O/U Play

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John Martin

Oct 05 '19, 10:30 PM in 15h
NCAA-F | Washington vs Stanford
Play on: Stanford +16½ -110 at Mirage

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Stanford +16.5
The Washington Huskies are laying too many points here at Stanford. This is the same Washington team that was upset by California as 13-point home favorites. They only beat USC by 14 at home in a game that was closer than the final score showed. Sure, they thumped BYU on the road, but that was a Cougars team coming off back-to-back overtime games and was simply out of gas. Stanford is a prideful team and will relish this opportunity to knock off a ranked Washington team. It’s the largest home underdog role for the Cardinal in 11 years. And Stanford has only failed to cover the spread once as a home underdog in the last 11 years. The Huskies are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games. Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last five against a team with a losing record. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Cardinal are 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Huskies. Give me Stanford.

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MLB
Weather Report

Saturday, October 5

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MLB
Dunkel

Saturday, October 5


Minnesota @ NY Yankees

Game 951-952
October 5, 2019 @ 5:07 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
(Dobnak) 14.401
NY Yankees
(Tanaka) 16.762
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Yankees
by 2 1/2
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Yankees
-180
9 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Yankees
(-180); Under

Tampa Bay @ Houston

Game 953-954
October 5, 2019 @ 9:07 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
(Snell) 15.337
Houston
(Cole) 18.120
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 3
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
-300
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-300); Over

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MLB

Friday, October 4

American League
Rays @ Astros (1-0)
Snell is 0-1, 4.50 in three opens since coming off the IL (6 IP); he is 2-2, 4.73 in six starts vs Houston- this is his first playoff start.

Cole was 5-0, 1.29 in six September starts; he is 15-0 in his last 19 starts, and is 0-2, 3.51 in four starts vs Tampa Bay, and 2-3, 3.72 in five playoff starts.

Rays won the Wild Card game Wednesday; they’re in playoffs for first time since 2013. Tampa Bay is 1-3 in the ALCS, winning their first one in 2008, losing the last three.

Houston is in playoffs for 4th time in five years; they won 2017 World Series, lost ALCS LY. Astros are 4-4 vs Tampa Bay this year; home side won six of the eight games.

Twins @ New York (1-0)
Dobnak is 2-1, 1.59 in nine MLB games (5 starts); he finished the four games he didn’t start. His first MLB start was September 3.

Tanaka is 1-1, 5.21 in his last four starts; he is 5-0, 2.27 in five starts vs Minnesota, and is 3-2, 1.50 in five playoff starts.

Twins lost their last 11 playoff games with NYY. Minnesota lost Wild Card game here in 2017, their only playoff appearance since 2010; they’re 2-5 vs NYY this year, with road team winning four of the seven games. Average total in the seven games is 13.6.

New York is in playoffs for 4th time in last seven years, after making it 17 of 18 years before that; they won three of last five trips to the ALDS.

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MLB

Friday, October 4

Trend Report

New York Yankees
NY Yankees is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
NY Yankees is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
NY Yankees is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of NY Yankees's last 13 games at home
NY Yankees is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
NY Yankees is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Yankees's last 7 games when playing Minnesota
NY Yankees is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against Minnesota
NY Yankees is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 8 of NY Yankees's last 10 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Minnesota Twins
Minnesota is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games
Minnesota is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 games on the road
Minnesota is 19-5 SU in its last 24 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games on the road
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Yankees
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing NY Yankees
Minnesota is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
Minnesota is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Minnesota's last 10 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees

Houston Astros
Houston is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Houston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Houston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games at home
Houston is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games
Tampa Bay is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Houston
Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Long Sheet

Saturday, October 5

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MINNESOTA (101 - 62) at NY YANKEES (104 - 59) - 5:07 PM
JAKE ODORIZZI (R) vs. MASAHIRO TANAKA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 104-59 (+14.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
NY YANKEES are 24-6 (+14.7 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season.
NY YANKEES are 58-24 (+14.1 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
NY YANKEES are 41-12 (+17.8 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters this season.
NY YANKEES are 46-27 (+18.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MINNESOTA is 101-62 (+21.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MINNESOTA is 55-27 (+27.5 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
MINNESOTA is 23-12 (+10.1 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
MINNESOTA is 23-7 (+12.1 Units) against the money line when playing on Saturday this season.
MINNESOTA is 67-38 (+18.4 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
MINNESOTA is 79-44 (+21.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
MINNESOTA is 44-19 (+21.7 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
ODORIZZI is 21-9 (+10.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
NY YANKEES is 5-2 (+2.7 Units) against MINNESOTA this season
6 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+4.9 Units)

JAKE ODORIZZI vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
ODORIZZI is 7-9 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 4.95 and a WHIP of 1.204.
His team's record is 7-10 (-2.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 7-9. (-3.6 units)

MASAHIRO TANAKA vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
TANAKA is 5-0 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 2.27 and a WHIP of 1.009.
His team's record is 5-0 (+5.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-1. (+3.0 units)

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TAMPA BAY (97 - 67) at HOUSTON (108 - 55) - 9:07 PM
BLAKE SNELL (L) vs. GERRIT COLE (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 187-139 (+23.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 80-66 (+16.7 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 77-71 (+19.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 39-24 (+23.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
SNELL is 20-9 (+13.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
HOUSTON is 296-320 (-63.6 Units) against the money line when playing on Saturday since 1997.
HOUSTON is 75-47 (-22.1 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 44-37 (-28.7 Units) against the money line in home games against left-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 38-35 (-21.1 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 19-20 (-18.3 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 4-4 (+1.3 Units) against HOUSTON this season
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.8 Units, Under=-0.3 Units)

BLAKE SNELL vs. HOUSTON since 1997
SNELL is 2-2 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 4.73 and a WHIP of 1.485.
His team's record is 4-2 (+3.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-4. (-2.3 units)

GERRIT COLE vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
COLE is 0-2 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.51 and a WHIP of 1.091.
His team's record is 2-2 (-1.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-2. (-0.2 units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday's Essentials
Tony Mejia

Here’s a look at what must be considered before wagering on Saturday's slate in key FBS vs. FBS matchups:

Early Starts
Purdue at Penn State (-28/54), 12 p.m. ET, ESPN: Boilermakers QB Elijah Sindelar and star WR Rondale Moore were injured on the same play in last week’s loss to Minnesota and won’t play here. Sindelar broke his collarbone and Moore injured a knee, so they’ll join a number of Purdue’s top defensive players and projected starting backs Tario Fuller and Richie Worship in missing the team’s Big Ten road opener. It’s homecoming week in Happy Valley, so we’ll see how effectively the Nittany Lions handle business against depleted Purdue will the peril of looking ahead to games against Iowa, Michigan and Michigan State the rest of this month an obstacle in covering such a large spread. Since 2010, the Boilers are 0-10 in games where they’ve been an underdog of 23 points or more but they’ve covered in six of those games. Penn State QB Sean Clifford threw for 398 yards and set a new school record by throwing fo 287 in the first half. Despite losing Trace McSorley and Miles Sanders, PSU is averaging 50 points per game after putting up a 55.5 clip through four games last season.

Maryland (-13.5/56) at Rutgers, 12 p.m. ET, BTN: The Scarlet Knights are under new leadership since Chris Ash caught a pink slip after Saturday’s 52-0 loss at Michigan. Offensive coordinator John McNulty was let go too, so Nunzio Campanile, a veteran of the New Jersey high school scene, will get his shot to impress in turning an interim gig into a full-time job by calling his own plays. Sophomore QB Art Sitkowski will redshirt and starter McLane Carter remains still sidelined by a concussion so redshirt freshman Johnny Langan, a Boston College transfer who won a state title under Campanile in ’17, will see his first action. The Terps are looking to rebound from last weekend’s 59-0 home loss against Penn State and play at banged-up Purdue next week, giving them an opportunity to rally after consecutive losses. QB Josh Jackson has developed a case of the yips after a fantastic start and probably can’t afford a third straight opening-drive interception. Tyrell Pegrome and redshirt freshman Tyler DeSue are waiting the turn, but first-year Maryland head coach Mike Locksley would certainly prefer if Jackson rebounds since he gives the team the best chance to win. Between a banged up offensive line and top WR D.J. Turner suspended, the Terps need him to avoid turnovers and serve as a stabilizing force on the road. RB Anthony McFarland was bottled up by Penn State but should get plenty of carries as he looks for his second 100-yard game of the season.

Oklahoma State (-10/63.5) at Texas Tech, 12 p.m. ET, FS1: Alan Bowman remains sidelined with an unfortunate collarbone injury that knocked him out after an excellent start and it looks like Jett Duffey will be the starter until he returns. Rice transfer Jackson Tyner started against Oklahoma but was ineffective while Duffey has more experience in Big 12 play and will look to help prevent Tech’s first 0-2 start in league play since 2015. The Cowboys bounced back from their tough loss at Texas by stifling K-State and look to avoid consecutive losses against the Red Raiders for the first time since 2002, back when Mike Gundy was still Les Miles’ offensive coordinator. Gundy’s latest QB, athletic freshman Spencer Sanders, will be challenged to make throws on the road to beat teams, so this will be another opportunity to demonstrate growth after struggling with consistency since conference play opened.

Iowa at Michigan (-4/47.5), 12 p.m ET, FOX: After destroying Rutgers, the Wolverines are back in a position where Jim Harbaugh’s team can disappoint everyone. It’s Homecoming week in Ann Arbor and a capable Hawkeyes team comes through town for the first time since 2012. That happens to be the only time Michigan has won in the last six meetings between these schools dating back to ’09. Kirk Ferentz is 7-5 against Michigan and beat Harbaugh 14-13 as a 21-point underdog back in ’15 to spoil a 9-0 start. Shea Patterson is on campus to prevent that type of loss and looks to salvage the season after a dreadful opening month. He’s expected to be the healthiest he’s been all season after being limited in September, but the key to a strong outing is going to keep Iowa’s AJ Epenesa, the nation’s top pass rusher, from disrupting his rhythm early. The Hawkeyes haven’t been at full strength but get top tackle Alaric Jackson from a sprained knee and safety Kaevon Merriweather back to help in the secondary.

Oklahoma (-33.5/66.5) at Kansas, 12 p.m. ET, ABC: Last year’s game shed the spotlight on what can happen when a team doesn’t respect their competition. Consider that a Heisman Trophy winner and No. 1 pick and a number of future pros had to go up and down the field in order to survive last year’s Jayhawks 55-40. Pooka Williams ran for 252 yards on 15 carries and will therefore have the attention of Sooners defense looking to show continued improvement prior to next week’s Red River Shootout. Oklahoma owns the nation’s most prolific offense with Jalen Hurts at the controls, but covering this number or eclipsing this total will likely hinge on freshman Spencer Rattler, the nation’s top QB recruit. He’s likely to get snaps with the second unit down the stretch and will probably be facing the first-team defense with Les Miles seeking improvement from a group that gave up a season-worst 51 points at TCU last week. .

TCU at Iowa State (-3.5/44), 12 p.m. ET, ESPN2: The Horned Frogs won’t be back in Fort Worth until they host Texas on Oct. 26. In order to have a shot at playing for a Big 12 title, they’ll need to pull off a number of road upsets. While freshman QB Max Duggan has taken over as the starter, K-State transfer Alex Delton has experience playing in Ames and should see time. Duggan is an Iowa native returning home and was recruited by the Cyclones. Top TCU corner Julius Lewis will make his debut opposite fellow senior Jeff Gladney, boosting one of the conference’s top secondaries. WR TreVontae Hights is also due back after missing last week’s rout of KU. The Cyclones come off a 23-21 loss at Baylor and have wasted a strong defensive effort in losing tight games against rival Iowa and the Bears in last week’s Big 12 opener. Iowa State DE JaQuan Bailey and center Colin Newell could miss this contest. The Frogs have won eight of 10 meetings in this series, last falling in Ames 14-7 in 2017. Rain could play a significant role in this contest, so keep an eye on the forecast.

Boston College at Louisville (-5/60.5), 12:30 p.m. ET, ACCN: The loser of this one will take a second conference loss before facing Clemson, which each of these teams is forced to do later this month. It’s likely that whoever drops this game will miss out on a bowl game given their remaining schedules, which would be an easier pill to swallow for Louisville first-year head coach Scott Satterfield on the heels of a 2-10 season than it would be for Steve Addazio in a season where BC has the talent to win eight games for the first time since ’09. Losing to Kansas at home was a wakeup call and last week’s home loss to Wake Forest was disappointing, but the wrong team appears favored here. The Cards have to prove this season’s improvement against the run isn’t smoke and mirrors and must do so against standout backs AJ Dillon and David Bailey. Dillon ran for 272 yards and four touchdowns in his first visit to Louisville in leading BC to a 45-42 win. The Eagles won last season’s matchup 38-20. The ‘Ville likely won’t have top QB Puma Pass available due to a foot injury, but backup Malik Cunningham looks to be over an ankle issue and should start.

Late-night Snack
Washington (-14.5/52) at Stanford, 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN: The Cardinal hope to avoid becoming the first Pac-12 team to lose three conference games this season by pulling off an upset in their first game being this heavy an underdog since beating then No. 1 Oregon in Eugene as a 20-point underdog in 2012. Unfortunately for Stanford, constant shuffling along on the offensive line is expected to remain an issue. The left side of the line is comprised of freshmen. Junior QB KJ Costello is sidelined by a thumb injury, so sophomore Davis Mills will get another start after helping beat Oregon State last week with his arm in addition to a touchdown reception. The Huskies have looked impressive since losing at home 20-19 to Cal and will have all their remaining games against the league’s top teams in Seattle. We’ll get to see what killer instinct this group has since walking onto the Farm and winning a game by two-plus touchdowns just because you’re expected to is easier said than done. QB Jacob Eason has thrown 10 touchdown passes and completed over 70 percent of his attempts. He went 24-for-28 in his lone start at BYU, finishing with 290 passing yards and three touchdowns. Chris Petersen is 2-3 against David Shaw and Stanford since taking over at U-Dub and is looking for back-to-back wins in the series for the first time.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Auburn at Florida
October 4, 2019
By Brian Edwards

No. 7 Auburn Tigers at No. 10 Florida Gators
Venue/Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL
Time/TV: Saturday, Oct. 5, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Auburn -2.5, Total 48.5

For the first time since 2011, Florida and Auburn will finally collide again Saturday afternoon at The Swamp in Gainesville. It’s easily the toughest ticket for a UF home game since the Tim Tebow Era ended in 2009.

Both teams are undefeated and looking to stay that way with brutal schedules on the horizon in the coming weeks. Both are also playing new quarterbacks that have thrown some life into their respective offenses.

As of Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Auburn (5-0 straight up, 5-0 against the spread) installed as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 48.5. The Gators were +120 on the money line. The Westgate SuperBook was showing the best price on Auburn at -2.

Auburn owns an 8-5-1 spread record in 14 games as a road favorite during Gus Malzahn’s seven-year tenure. Meanwhile, UF won outright in its only home underdog spot since Mullen took over, beating LSU 27-19 last year as a 2.5-point home ‘dog. The Gators are 3-5 ATS in eight games as home ‘dogs since 2009.

Auburn won in come-from-behind fashion in its season opener, rallying to a 27-21 win over Oregon at Jerry World in Arlington. The Tigers took the cash as four-point favorites.

Since then, Malzahn’s bunch has won 24-6 vs. Tulane, 55-16 vs. Kent State, 28-20 at Texas A&M and 56-23 vs. Mississippi State. Auburn is one of only four schools with 5-0 spread records (the other three are down below in Bonus Nuggets).

Mississippi State got its clock cleaned on The Plains from start to finish last Saturday night. Auburn, which surprisingly went from a double-digit favorite down to -8 or -7.5 just before kickoff, raced out to a 21-0 lead in the first six minutes and one second of action. By intermission, the Tigers had a commanding 42-9 advantage.

Auburn racked up 580 yards of total offense and converted 6-of-10 third-down opportunities. True freshman QB Bo Nix was sensational, connecting on 16-of-21 passes for 335 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. He also rushed for 56 yards and one TD on only seven attempts.

JaTarvious Whitlow ran for 55 yards and three TDs on 10 carries. Seth Williams had eight receptions for 161 yards and two TDs, while Anthony Schwartz had two catches for 67 yards. Schwartz, WR with big-time wheels, also ran for 25 yards and one TD on three totes.

Nix, the five-star recruit, was in for spring practice and won the job in August over redshirt freshman Joey Gatewood. Nix passed my “eye test” right away against Oregon, especially with his work on the game-winning drive. Trailing 21-20 and in field-goal range, Nix decided to take a shot deep and found Williams with a 26-yard scoring strike with only nine seconds remaining.

Obviously, this prevented Auburn from depending on a kicker to boot a field goal from more than 40 yards out to win. Most important for our purposes, though, it hooked up Auburn backers with a winner as a four-point ‘chalk.’

For the season, Nix has completed 57.6 percent of his throws for 980 yards with a 7/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He threw both picks against the Ducks and has five TD passes without an interception in AU’s last four games. Nix, who has improved every week and will most likely continue to do so, has 173 rushing yards, two TDs and a 4.9 yards-per-carry average.

Williams has emerged as Nix’s favorite target, pulling down 17 receptions for 289 yards and four TDs. Eli Stove has 18 catches for 177 yards and two TDs, while Will Hastings has nine grabs for 148 yards and one TD. Schwartz, who missed the first two games after breaking a bone in his hand in early August, has produced five receptions for 110 yards and 82 rushing yards and two TDs on just four carries.

Whitlow has been handline the bulk of the carries on the ground, rushing for 463 yards and seven TDs while averaging 5.0 YPC. Kam Martin has 145 rushing yards and two TDs with a 5.0 YPC average.

AU’s offense is ranked 14th in the nation in rushing yards, averaging 251.8 yards per game. The Tigers are ranked 24th in scoring with their 38.0 points-per-game average.

Auburn defensive coordinator Kevin Steele has done outstanding work with his unit since taking this job in 2016. The Tigers are ranked 19th in the country in run defense and 22nd in scoring ‘D’ (17.2 PPG).

Florida (5-0 SU, 2-3 ATS) opened the season with a 24-20 non-covering win over Miami down in Orlando. After an open date, the Gators beat up on UT-Martin by a 45-0 count as 44.5-point home favorites. They lost two-time, second-team All-SEC cornerback CJ Henderson to an ankle sprain against the Skyhawks, however.

Henderson has missed the last three games, but he’s good to go against Auburn. Truth be told, Henderson probably could’ve played last week vs. Towson and maybe even against Tennessee two weeks ago, but Mullen wisely held him out to be 100 percent vs. Auburn. Likewise, UF’s other preseason All-American, senior DE Jabari Zuniga, hasn’t played since injuring his ankle in the second half of a 29-21 win at Kentucky on Sept. 14. Zuniga is ready to go this week and probably could’ve played last week, too. Zuniga, a third-team All-SEC selection in 2018, had three sacks in UF’s first three games.

In Week 3, Florida saw starting QB Feleipe Franks go down with a dislocated ankle in the third quarter at Kentucky. The injury required season-ending surgery the following week.

Trailing 21-10 going into the fourth quarter, back-up QB Kyle Trask rose to the occasion. He sparked the UF offense to three TD drives in the fourth quarter of a 29-21 comeback win as a 9.5-point road ‘chalk.’ With 12:41 remaining, Trask ran left on the option and made a smooth pitch at the last second to LaMical Perine who strutted his way into the end zone for an eight-yard TD scamper.

Down 21-16 after a failed two-point conversion, Mullen called a QB draw for Trask and the middle was open for a four-yard TD run. The Gators failed on another two-point attempt and led 22-21, but Kentucky’s Chance Poore missed a short field goal wide right.

On a third-down play with Kentucky set to use its final timeout and get the ball back if it could stop UF short of a first down, Mullen called a sprint sweep to Josh Hammond. The senior WR found a crease and busted it 76 yards for a TD with 33 ticks left.

On Sept. 21 at home vs. Tennessee, Trask made his first start since his freshman year of high school. He was a back-up at the prep level behind Houston star QB D’Eriq King. Trask responded by hitting Kyle Pitts for a 19-yard scoring strike on the game’s opening drive.

Florida went to halftime with a 17-0 lead on the Volunteers. Trask put the Gators in front 24-3 with a 29-yard TD pass to Freddie Swain midway through the third quarter. Although he did throw a pair of second-half interceptions, Trask completed 20-of-28 passes for 293 yards in the 34-3 win over UT as a 13-point home favorite. His 293 passing yards were the most by a QB since Mullen took over (more than Franks in his 16 starts).

Trask has connected on 51-of-66 passes for 698 yards with a 5/3 TD-INT ratio. He also had a pair of TD runs. Unlike Franks, he makes quick decisions and gets the ball out fast, and that’ll be key against Auburn’s stout defensive line.

UF’s weakness is its offensive line, so that matchup could be a major issue for the Gators. Mullen will need to get creative with his play-calling and do a masterful job in that department or Trask could take a lot of big hits vs. Auburn.

Trask has provided a major upgrade at the QB position, and he’s blessed with UF’s best and deepest group of WRs in a decade. Van Jefferson has 18 catches for 248 yards and one TD, while Trevon Grimes has 15 catches for 231 yards. Pitts is emerging as one of UF’s most improved players and one of the SEC top tight ends. He has 17 receptions for 189 yards and three TDs.

Hammond (14-176), Tyrie Cleveland (10-167-1 TD) and Swain (8-134-2 TDs) are also factors in the passing game. However, the explosive and versatile Kadarius Toney remains ‘out’ with a wrist injury sustained against UT-Martin.

Perine hasn’t had any room to navigate yardage on the ground. He’s been limited to 198 rushing yards and a 3.7 YPC average, but it’s not on him and he does have three rushing TDs. The senior RB also has 14 catches for 78 yards and one TD.

UF is ranked No. 89 in the country in rushing yards. The Gators are No. 29 in passing yards and No. 43 in scoring with their 34.0 PPG average.

Florida’s defense gets its two best players back and even with Zuniga and Henderson missing five combined games, Todd Grantham’s unit is ranked fifth in the nation in scoring defense (8.8 PPG). The Gators are 18th in the country in total defense, No. 17 in run ‘D’ and No. 30 in passing defense.

UF senior LB David Reese has a team-high 36 tackles that ranks him fifth in the SEC. He has one sack and one tackle for loss. DE Jonathan Greenard is in a first-place tie with South Carolina DT Javon Kinlaw for the SEC’s lead in sacks with four. Greenard, the transfer from Louisville, has 21 tackles, 1.5 TFL’s, four QB hurries, three passes broken up, one forced fumble and one interception.

The ‘over’ is 3-2 overall for Auburn, 1-0 in its lone road assignment as the 48 combined points at Texas A&M inched ‘over’ the 47.5-point total. The Tigers’ games have averaged combined scores of 55.2 PPG.

The ‘under’ is 4-1 overall for the Gators, 4-0 in their home games. Their games have averaged combined scores of 42.8 PPG.

Auburn has won three games in a row in this rivalry, including a 17-6 home win in 2011 and a 20-17 win at UF in 2007. In fact, the Tigers are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings dating back to 2001.

Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

Bet and Collect Podcast

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- For what it’s worth, Florida was a four-point favorite vs. Auburn at most books this summer in Games of the Year lines.

-- Speaking of Games of the Year, the Westgate SuperBook released its updated lines earlier this week. UF is a 14-point underdog next week at LSU. Also in Week 7, Oklahoma is a 12.5-point favorite vs. Texas. If that line hold and keeps the Sooners as double-digit ‘chalk,’ it’ll leave Tom Herman as a double-digit underdog. In that role as a head coach at both Houston and Texas, Herman is 5-0 ATS with four outright victories. The Gators are 10-point underdogs for their Nov. 2 showdown vs. Georgia in Jacksonville. They’re 14.5-point home ‘chalk’ vs. FSU in the regular-season finale.

-- Other notable Games of the Year from The Westgate: LSU -9.5 vs. Auburn, Alabama -12.5 vs. LSU and Alabama -11 at Auburn.

-- Florida is 13-3 SU at home vs. Auburn since 1973. The home team has won 22 of 30 head-to-head meetings in this rivalry since 1976. H/T to Phil Steele for both of those factoids.

-- UF-Auburn will take place 10 days shy of the 25-year anniversary of a showdown in The Swamp on Oct. 15 of 1994. Bo Nix’s father, Patrick Nix, found Frank Sanders for a TD pass in the final minute to rally Auburn past the top-ranked Gators in Gainesville.

-- Former Florida LB Kylan Johnson is thriving at Pittsburgh after leaving the Gators via the grad-transfer route. Johnson has 20 tackles, four sacks, two TFL’s, one forced fumble and one PBU. The Panthers are 3-1 both SU and ATS since losing their season opener 30-14 to Virginia at Heinz Field. The only loss during that span is a 17-10 defeat at unbeaten Penn State. Pat Narduzzi’s squad has won four games in a row over Duke both SU and ATS, but it is an underdog in Durham on Saturday. Pitt junior starting QB Kenny Pickett has been upgraded to ‘probable’ after a shoulder injury kept him out of last week’s 17-14 win over Delaware as a 27.5-point home ‘chalk.’ The Panthers are 13-6 ATS as road underdogs during Narduzzi’s five-year tenure. Since 2012, Duke is 19-15 ATS as a home ‘chalk’ despite limping to a 1-5 ATS mark in six such spots last season. As of Friday, most books had the Blue Devils favored by five points for this 8:00 p.m. Eastern kickoff on the ACC Network.

-- Duke senior QB Quentin Harris has an 18/3 career TD-INT ratio and nine rushing touchdowns.

-- Northwestern, a 7.5-point road underdog at Nebraska, is 28-10 ATS as a road underdog since 2008. Since Nebraska joined the Big Ten, six of eight meetings with the Wildcats have been one-possession games, and five of those contests were decided by three points or less. Also, Northwestern is 4-0 ATS in the four games played in Lincoln.

-- Colorado head coach Mel Tucker told the Denver Post Monday that star WR Laviska Shenault will be game-time decisions for Saturday’s home game vs. Arizona. Shenault was a fourth-team All-American in 2018 despite playing in only eight games. He had 86 receptions for 1,011 yards and six TDs last year, in addition to 115 rushing yards and five TDs with a 6.8 YPC. Colorado senior DT Mustafa Johnson, who had 7.5 sacks and 16 QB hurries in 2018, has been downgraded to ‘doubtful’ due to an ankle injury. Arizona QB Khalil Tate (hamstring) and RB J.J. Taylor (ankle) both missed last week’s 20-17 home win over UCLA, and both remain ‘questionable’ against the Buffaloes.

-- UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson is ‘questionable’ vs. Oregon State. ‘DTR’ has thrown for 1,253 yards and has an 11/6 TD-INT ratio for the Bruins, who are 4-13 since hiring Chip Kelly.

-- Stanford QB K.J. Costello is ‘out’ again this week vs. Washington due to a thumb injury. The Huskies had been favored by 16.5 points for most of the week, but the number dropped to 15 or 14.5 by Friday afternoon. The Cardinal is 4-1 both SU and ATS as a home underdog during David Shaw’s nine-year tenure, but let me be clear that that’s not an endorsement in this spot.

-- Akron, the only team in the nation with a 0-5 ATS record, has an open date this weekend ahead of an Oct. 12 home tilt vs. Kent State.

-- Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, FIU and Vanderbilt are 0-4 ATS.

-- The four schools with 5-0 spread records include Auburn, Oklahoma State, Louisiana and SMU. Meanwhile, Washington, Wyoming and Ohio State are 4-1 versus the number.

-- Purdue first-team All-American WR Rondale Moore (leg) is ‘out’ of Saturday’s game at Penn State. Junior QB Elijah Sindelar had surgery earlier this week to repair his broken collarbone. He is ‘out’ indefinitely, perhaps for the rest of the season.

-- The ‘over’ is 5-0 for Charlotte and SMU, 4-0 for LSU. On the flip side, the ‘under’ is 4-0 for Tulsa, East Carolina, Old Dominion and San Diego State.

-- TCU is 19-8-1 ATS as a road underdog since 2005. The Horned Frogs are 3.5-point ‘dogs at Iowa State for a noon Eastern kick on ESPN2.

-- Rutgers QB McLane Carter is ‘out’ again this week at home vs. Maryland. Johnny Langan will start for the Scarlet Knights against the Terrapins, who are 13.5-point road favorites. According to a report from Football Scoop, former Rutgers HC Greg Schiano resigned as New England Patriots defensive coordinator in March because he informed Bill Belichick that boosters at his former school told him he’d be the top target if/when Chris Ash was fired. Since Schiano reportedly wants his old gig back, he and Belichick agreed that it wouldn’t work with the Patriots if he planned on leaving the club in November or December to return to New Jersey.

-- Boise State, a 23-point road favorite at UNLV, is 41-17-1 in its last 59 games as a road favorite. The Broncos have had two weeks to prep for the Rebels, who are 3-7 ATS in 10 games as home underdogs during Tony Sanchez’s tenure. Although UNLV QB Armani Rogers (leg injury) has been upgraded to ‘probable,’ Sanchez has named redshirt freshman Kenyon Oblad as his starting QB vs. BSU.