Monday 10-7-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-07-2019, 06:05 AM

Frank Sawyer

Oct 07 '19, 1:05 PM in 6h
MLB | HOU vs TAM
Play on: UNDER 7½ +104

Take Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros and the Tampa Bay Rays listing both starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Charlie Morton. Houston (109-55) took a 2-0 lead in this best-of-five series Saturday night with a 3-1 victory. The Astros now go on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. The Under is also 12-1-3 in their last 17 games when playing on astroturf like what they will find at Tropicana Field. Tampa Bay (97-68) has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who did not allow more than two runs in their last game. The Rays have also played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total in the playoffs. Take the Under while listing both starting pitchers. Best of luck — Frank.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-07-2019, 06:05 AM

Rob Vinciletti

Oct 07 '19, 7:05 PM in 12h
NHL | Blues vs Maple Leafs
Play on: Blues +117 at pinnacle

The NHL Comp play for Monday is on the St. Louis Blues at 7:05 eastern.The Blues have won 10 of on Mondays and are a solid 5-1 as a road dog dating back to last season. the champs are also as nifty 4-0 when playing a 3rd game in 4 nights. Toronto has lost 6 straight in the series and is 0-5 playing a 3rd game in 4 nights. The Leafs have dropped 6 of 7 vs Central Division teams. Look for St. Louis to have Toronto singing the Blues tonight. For the NHL Free play we will back the blues as a nice underdog tonight. Rob V- GC Sports

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-07-2019, 07:37 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 5

Monday, October 7

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CLEVELAND (2 - 2) at SAN FRANCISCO (3 - 0) - 10/7/2019, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 32-11 ATS (+19.9 Units) when playing on Monday night since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-07-2019, 07:37 AM

NFL

Week 5

Trend Report

Monday, October 7

San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 4-21 SU in its last 25 games on the road

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-07-2019, 07:38 AM

NFL

Week 5
Browns (2-2) @ 49ers (3-0)— Cleveland has had wildly divergent results, splitting its first four games; only one of their four games was decided by less than 15 points. Browns are 7-3 ATS in their last ten games as a road underdog; they were outscored 48-14 in 2nd half of their two losses. 49ers scored 32 ppg in their 3-0 start; they ran ball for 427 yards in last two games. Under Shanahan, SF is 2-4 ATS when laying points at home. Niners lost last six post-bye games (0-6 ATS), with last four losses by 11+ points. Browns won three of last four games with the 49ers, with average total of 29; teams split pair of meetings here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-07-2019, 07:39 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 5

Monday, October 7

Cleveland @ San Francisco

Game 477-478
October 7, 2019 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
132.716
San Francisco
138.383
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 5 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
by 3 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(-3 1/2); Over

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-07-2019, 07:39 AM

477CLEVELAND -478 SAN FRANCISCO
SAN FRANCISCO is 32-11 ATS (19.9 Units) when playing on Monday night since 1992.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-07-2019, 07:40 AM

Tech Trends - Week 5

Monday, Oct. 7

CLEVELAND at SAN FRANCISCO (ESPN, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Brownies 8-3 vs. spread last 11 on road, 10-5 as dog since last season. Niners 1-5 as chalk since LY, 3-6 last 9 at Levi’s.
Tech Edge: Browns, based on team trends.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-07-2019, 07:40 AM

Under the Lights

Cleveland at San Francisco (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Monday Night Football game this week features the Browns, who finally discovered their offense in Baltimore last week, against a 49ers team coming off a 15-day absence due to their bye in Week 4 and an extra day to prepare for MNF.

The Browns are averaging 22.3 PPG while yielding 22.8 PPG through four games, although defensively that's a bit skewed after coughing up 43 in the Week 1 loss to the Titans. The 'over/under' has split 2-2, but the under is 2-0 in the two primetime showings for Cleveland.

The 49ers have hit for 24 or more points in each of their three outings, averaging 32.0 PPG. Defensively, they have yielded 20 or fewer points in each of their three games, although the combined record of their three opponents is 3-9 SU, so it remains to be seen whether San Francisco's defense is that much improved or just a product of their poor opponents to date.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-07-2019, 07:42 AM

MNF - Browns at 49ers
Tony Mejia

Browns at 49ers (-3.5, 45), 8:15 pm ET, ESPN

Despite being a trendy Super Bowl pick and entering the week as a 6-to-5 co-favorite to win the AFC North per Westgate, the Browns are a decisive underdog entering the final game of Week 5. The 49ers come off their bye week and have won three out of four at Levi’s Stadium but haven’t been particularly strong over the past few years.

You can understand that logic fueling an opening number in the 3.5-to-4 range, but after initially dipping to Browns +3, the overwhelming amount of support has come in on the Niners. Although every wager is essentially a vote of confidence, this one feels like it packs a little extra because we’re not sure what to make of either of these franchises considering how accustomed we’ve grown to seeing them struggle.

San Francisco (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) hasn’t made the playoffs since 2013 and has lost 47 games over the past four seasons. Cleveland (2-2, 2-2) has made the playoffs once in the 20 years since returning to the NFL and has 15 seasons featuring double-figures in losses within that span. Last season’s 7-8-1 run delivered the Browns’ third-highest winning percentage since 1995.

First-year head coach Freddie Kitchens is essentially learning as he goes and a team with multiple big personalities is just starting to learn one another after a month of action, so the Browns remain vulnerable despite there being enough talent on the roster to end a playoff drought dating back to 2002. Odell Beckham, Jr. has started paying dividends and former top pick Myles Garrett is proving to be one of the NFL’s top defensive difference-makers week in and week out, so there’s plenty to be excited about if both units come together and play to their potential.

Cleveland has alternated wins and losses thus far, getting blown out at home by the Titans in Week 1 and losing a one-possession game to the Rams on a Sunday night two weeks ago in which Kitchens made some bad decisions to compound matters. His team is perfect on the road straight up and against the spread, defeating the Jets 23-3 and winning in Baltimore 40-25 last week in its most impressive performance to date.

49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is in the third season of his tenure and was poised to take a step forward, but it still remains to be seen whether there’s substance to this early success. San Francisco’s three victims will close Week 5 with a combined record of 3-12. Following this Monday night game, the Niners will go down to L.A. for a divisional clash with the Rams, so we’ll know a lot more about the 49ers in a week’s time. At the moment, they emerge from their bye week as a group that has been able to capitalize effectively on the mistakes of bad teams.

On the bright side, it’s entirely possible that the best is ahead for the 49ers considering Garoppolo appears to be playing himself back into a rhythm after tearing his ACL in Week 3 last season. He was turnover-prone all preseason, struggling both in games and in joint practices and scrimmages, so San Francisco can only hope that he’s going to turn the corner and be more careful with the ball after a bye week. Garoppolo will eclipse his game total from last season after taking his first snap here and will be making just his 14th professional start, putting him four games behind Mayfield in that category despite entering the league in 2014.

He’s coming off his first multi-pick game of the season in helping a Steelers team led by first-time starter Mason Rudolph hang around two weeks ago and has thrown five touchdowns to go with his four interceptions. Mayfield has been picked off in every game and has an ugly 4-to-6 TD-to-INT ratio, so Monday night’s showdown may very well boil down to which secondary forces the most miscues. Injuries have been a big deal for both, so be sure to scroll down for the report below on the way out for news on who is in and who’s out

Richard Sherman has remained healthy and has brought his leadership and intelligence to San Francisco defensive backfield, making up for a lost step with his attention to detail. The Browns are led by aggressive safety Damarious Randall, a former first-round pick who has had 14 interceptions over four years with Green Bay and Cleveland and has really blossomed into a guy who can be counted upon to fly around the field.

Beckham, Jr. and Jarvis Landry form the Browns’ highly-regarded receiving combo, while San Francisco employs more of a collective approach in playing off elite tight end George Kittle. Rookie Deebo Samuel may ultimately emerged as the No. 1 receiver, but burner Marquise Goodwin, Dante Pettis and Richie James all have touchdown receptions. Shanahan has effectively utilized his run blocking schemes to get multiple guys going thus far, utilizing Matt Breida as the workhorse, Jeff Wilson around the goal line and Raheem Mostert in a change-of-pace role that may now be played by offseason acquisition Tevin Coleman, who will make his 49ers debut after healing up from an ankle injury.

The Browns’ run game is led by Nick Chubb, who helped take down Baltimore with an 88-yard fourth-quarter run. In all, he went for three scores, all in the second half, and wound up with 165 yards on 20 carries. The second-year standout from Georgia has led Cleveland in rushing in all four games but his 100-yard effort was the first of the season. As a whole, Cleveland is looking for improved offensive line play to stave off DeForest Buckner, Nick Bosa and a fierce 49ers front seven.

The Niners have played only once in Santa Clara this season, failing to cover against Pittsburgh prior to their bye week. They were 4-4 at home last season but covered in only three of their wins. The Browns have covered five of their last six road games, winning three outright. After an unseasonably warm day for October in NoCal, weather is expected to be gorgeous as the night unfolds, with typically windy weather not expected to factor in. The total has hovered in the 47.5/48 range since opening for business.

LINE MOVEMENT

Cleveland Browns
Projected season win total: 9 (Over +100, Under -120)
Odds to win AFC North (pre-Week 1/current):7/5 to 6/5
Odds to win AFC (pre-Week 1/current): 9/1 to 15/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 18/1 to 40/1

San Francisco 49ers
Projected season win total: 8 (Over -140, Under +120)
Odds to win NFC West (pre-Week 1/current): 4/1 to 2/1
Odds to win NFC (pre-Week 1/current): 20/1 to 12/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 40/1 to 25/1

INJURY CONCERNS

Mayfield got great news with Jarvis Landry clearing concussion protocol, which combined with Antonio Callaway coming off suspension and Rashard Higgins possibly returning from a knee issue, revitalizes the Beckham-led receiving corps. Tight end David Njoku was lost to a wrist injury and is on IR, so Mayfield will welcome having more options. San Francisco will have top safety Jimmie Ward available after a finger issue and should have DEs Dee Ford (quad) and Nck Bosa (ankle) back in addition to safety Jaquiski Tartt to help defend Cleveland.

Veteran tackle Joe Staley remains out for San Francisco, while the Browns won’t have tackle Kendall Lamm due to a knee injury. The 49ers could catch a break since DBs Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams may miss another game due to hamstring injuries. Safety Morgan Burnett should play after returning to practice following a quad injury.

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 6 currently has the 49ers as a 5.5-point road underdog in their aforementioned NFC West clash against the Rams. The Browns were listed as a 2-point favorite against Seattle as they turn their attention to picking up their first home win upon returning from the Bay Area.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-07-2019, 07:42 AM

MLB
Weather Report

Monday, October 7

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-07-2019, 07:43 AM

901ATLANTA -902 ST LOUIS
ST LOUIS are 8-0 SU (8 Units) in home games when playing on Monday in the current season.

903LA DODGERS -904 WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 76-46 SU (26.1 Units) vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the current season.

905HOUSTON -906 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 18-4 SU (13.6 Units) in home games as an underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons.

907NY YANKEES -908 MINNESOTA
NY YANKEES are 19-5 SU (16.5 Units) vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season in the current season.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-07-2019, 07:43 AM

MLB
Long Sheet

Monday, October 7

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ATLANTA (98 - 66) at ST LOUIS (92 - 72) - 3:07 PM
JULIO TEHERAN (R) vs. DAKOTA HUDSON (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 5-3 (+2.3 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.7 Units)

JULIO TEHERAN vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
TEHERAN is 3-3 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 2.66 and a WHIP of 1.273.
His team's record is 5-3 (+2.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-5. (-2.2 units)

DAKOTA HUDSON vs. ATLANTA since 1997
HUDSON is 0-0 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 2.84 and a WHIP of 1.106.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-0. (+0.0 units)

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LA DODGERS (107 - 57) at WASHINGTON (95 - 70) - 6:40 PM
RICH HILL (L) vs. ANIBAL SANCHEZ (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 4-5 (-0.1 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.9 Units)

RICH HILL vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
HILL is 2-3 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 4.67 and a WHIP of 1.384.
His team's record is 5-3 (+1.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-5. (-3.7 units)

ANIBAL SANCHEZ vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
SANCHEZ is 1-4 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 3.72 and a WHIP of 1.168.
His team's record is 3-7 (-3.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-5. (-0.4 units)

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HOUSTON (109 - 55) at TAMPA BAY (97 - 68) - 1:05 PM
ZACK GREINKE (R) vs. CHARLIE MORTON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 45-34 (-11.4 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
HOUSTON is 70-44 (-6.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
GREINKE is 35-40 (-20.0 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -175 since 1997. (Team's Record)
TAMPA BAY is 187-140 (+22.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 14-8 (+12.4 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 25-7 (+18.0 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 77-72 (+18.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 39-25 (+22.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 48-22 (+15.3 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 19-3 (+13.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 54-23 (+21.3 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
MORTON is 31-45 (-19.4 Units) against the money line in day games since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 4-5 (+0.3 Units) against HOUSTON this season
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.7 Units)

ZACK GREINKE vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
GREINKE is 4-6 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.29 and a WHIP of 1.204.
His team's record is 5-9 (-6.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 9-5. (+3.0 units)

CHARLIE MORTON vs. HOUSTON since 1997
MORTON is 4-6 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 6.28 and a WHIP of 1.657.
His team's record is 5-6 (-1.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-7. (-3.7 units)

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NY YANKEES (105 - 59) at MINNESOTA (101 - 63) - 8:40 PM
LUIS SEVERINO (R) vs. JAKE ODORIZZI (R)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 30-29 (-9.0 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters this season.
MINNESOTA is 101-63 (+20.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MINNESOTA is 67-39 (+17.4 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
MINNESOTA is 79-45 (+20.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
MINNESOTA is 44-20 (+20.7 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
ODORIZZI is 21-9 (+10.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
NY YANKEES are 105-59 (+15.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
NY YANKEES are 47-27 (+19.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY YANKEES is 6-2 (+3.7 Units) against MINNESOTA this season
7 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+5.9 Units)

LUIS SEVERINO vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
SEVERINO is 0-1 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 7.00 and a WHIP of 1.667.
His team's record is 2-1 (-0.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-1. (+0.8 units)

JAKE ODORIZZI vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
ODORIZZI is 7-9 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 4.95 and a WHIP of 1.204.
His team's record is 7-10 (-2.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 7-9. (-3.6 units)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-07-2019, 07:44 AM

MLB

Monday, October 7

American League
Astros (2-0) @ Rays
Greinke is 4-0, 1.78 in his last four starts; he is 4-6, 3.36 in 17 games (14 starts) vs Tampa Bay- he is 3-4, 4.03 in 11 playoff starts.

Former Astro Morton is 3-0, 2.73 in his last five starts; he is 4-6, 6.28 in 11 starts vs Houston, and is 3-2, 3.96 in 8 playoff games (7 starts).

Houston is in playoffs for 4th time in five years; they won 2017 World Series, lost ALCS LY. Astros are 5-4 vs Tampa Bay this year; home side won seven of the nine games. Houston outscored Tampa Bay 9-3 in first two games of this series.

Rays won the Wild Card game Wednesday; they’re in playoffs for first time since 2013. Tampa Bay is 1-3 in the ALCS, winning their first one in 2008, losing the last three.

New York (2-0) @ Twins
Severino is 1-1, 1.50 in three starts this year; he is 0-1, 4.15 in two starts vs Minnesota, is 1-2, 6.26 in six playoff starts.

Odorizzi is 1-1, 2.65 in his last three starts; he is 7-9, 4.71 in 18 games (17 starts) vs NYY- this is his first playoff start.

New York is in playoffs for 4th time in last seven years, after making it 17 of 18 years before that; they won three of last five trips to the ALDS.

Twins lost their last 12 playoff games with NYY. Minnesota lost Wild Card game here in 2017, their only playoff appearance since 2010; they’re 2-6 vs NYY this year, NYY scoring 18 runs in first two series games. Average total in the seven games is 13.1.

National League
Braves (2-1) @ Cardinals
Fried is 2-2, 7.71 in his last five starts; he is 1-0, 0.00 in two games (7.1 IP 1 start) vs St Louis, and is 0-0, 2.08 in six relief stints (4.1 IP) in playoff games.

Hudson is 6-1, 1.86 in his last nine starts; he is 0-0, 3.38 in two games (1 start) vs Atlanta- this is his playoff starts.

Atlanta is in playoffs for 2nd year in a row after a 4-year absence; they lost their last seven appearances in the NLDS, dating back to 2002. Atlanta scored three runs in 9th inning Sunday to pull out a dramatic 3-1 win and grab a 2-1 series lead.

St Louis is in the playoffs for first time in four years, after making it every year from 2011-15. Cardinals are 4-5 in nine games with Atlanta this year, 1-3 in this ballpark- they scored only two runs in innings 1-7 in first three games of this series.

Dodgers (2-1) @ Nationals
Hill is 0-0, 1.59 in three starts since coming off IL; he is 2-2, 4.08 in seven games (5 starts) vs Washington, and is 1-2, 3.04 in 12 playoff games (11 starts).

Corbin is 3-0, 4.84 in his last four starts, and is 5-9, 3.36 in 21 games (19 starts) vs LA. He is 0-1, 1.50 in his one career playoff start.

Dodgers are 6-4 vs Washington this year, 3-2 in games games played here. LA is in playoffs for 7th year in a row, losing the World Series the last two years.

Washington won the Wild Card game Tuesday, then scored only four runs when they split the two games in LA; they’re in playoffs for fifth time in eight years. Nationals lost in NLDS last four times they were in playoffs, three times in a 5th game.

Monday 10-7-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Monday 10-7-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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