Service Plays Tuesday 10/1/19

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jason Sharpe

2 Unit Wash -175

[Calidreaming]

C Jordan blank check pick on Nats Run Line

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Miller locks

8:08 pm est mlb
milwaukee brewers vs. Washington nationals

pick: Milwaukee brewers (+157)

risk: 11 units

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TONY FINN


NATIONAL LEAGUE WILD CARD CASH
Game: (911) Milwaukee Brewers at (912) Washington Nationals
Date/Time: Oct 1 2019 8:08 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Washington Nationals -163


View Analysis


PLAY: Washington Nationals -163 (good to -180)
4% confidence rating


LIST PITCHERS: Woodruff and Scherzer


The difference between the regular season and postseason play is large. The gaff between starting pitchers, bullpens, and lineups are many times smaller than small and difficult to access after a September stats that included the expanded roster.


The difference in the talent between the Brewers and the Nats, however, is large. If Christian Yelich were healthy and swinging a bat for the Crew then the Brewers would be close if not even to the Nationals lineup. However, Yelich isn't active and won't be a part of the postseason action.

The Nats pitching, starters, easily trump anything that Milwaukee can toss to the mound. And while Washington has issues with the bullpen unless the Nats have a significant lead in the seventh inning it is unlikely that the pen that was used during the 162 game reg season won't see the mound in this wild card contest.

Mad Max will take the mound in the first inning and if efficient will pitching into the seven or eighth innings. If necessary, late in this wild card contest, the most likely scenario is that Patrick Corbin will close the game out. And with the win the Nats will begin to prepare for the Dodgers with scheduled Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin working Games 1 and 2 in Dodger Stadium.

The run of success that the Brewers experienced in the final month of the season, winning 18 of 20 before losing two in Colorado, came against non-playoff contenders and clubs that were, in the most accurate term, in a I"don't care about anything but making my tee time" frame of mind. It isn't a stretch to label the Nats as the most likely of the wild card entrants to be playing in the final seven-game-series because of their pitching trio... and nothing else.

Woodruff missed nearly two months with an oblique injury and made only two appearances since his return. And the last week of maybe this and maybe that has not assisted him in gaining any form of consistency and flow. Woodruff pitched only four innings in total since his return from the IL. Throw everything you know about Woodruff out the window. He is pitching in front of the least talented bullpen and starting rotation of those playing in October of either league with St Louis a close second to that of Milwaukee.

It wasn't long ago that skipper Craig Counsell said the club didn't know if Woodruff would start or pitch out of the pen when he came off the IL. And in truth that was a safe statement considering there is a lot of difference between any of the Brewers starters and relief corps.

Max Scherzer vs Woodruff is truely a mismatch in terms of capability and their best versus their worst, in terms of scenario.

Ignore Schertzers up and down September. Once it was apparent that the Nats were going to contend for a postseason slot the coaching staff kept him on the IL longer than he had to be. And when he did return his September was about nothing more than being 100 percent and stretched out for October.

Schertzer's Sept struggles were command related. His swing and miss stuff was still obviously alive and well.

Again, for the Brewers to be playing later this week and the Nats to be at home watching the playoffs is much longer than the minus-170 that the books are asking in this matchup.

The value is over-the-top Nats-heavy. Washington doesn't take the batters' box in the bottom of the ninth and it will not be a surprise if there is talk about a mercy rule before the top of the fifth innings arrives.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

4.5-STAR WASHINGTON over Milwaukee This may seem like a big line for essentially a one game playoff, but we actually see this line being tampered down because of that situation. In fact, we believe the line would be higher if this was the matchup in a regular season game. That may be accounting for Milwaukee having a willingness to go to their top bullpen arms early, but even that contains a lot of question marks. If Washington can get an early lead, which seems likely, we dont see Milwaukee having the guns to make a comeback here.

Washington comes into the postseason red hot, has winners of eight straight games. Playoff teams on 4+ game winning streaks are +14.8% playing on.


They closed the regular season Sunday with an 8-2 win over Cleveland. The Nationals are 10-0 SU since Sep 26, 2018 as a home favorite off a home game in which they won by 5+ runs.


Milwaukee meanwhile closed the regular season dropping three straight very important games. Playoff teams on 2+ game losing streaks are +16.6% playing against. Also, the Nationals are 10-0 SU since Aug 13, 2019 at home vs a team that has lost at least their last two games.


And Milwaukee was a sizable favorite in all three of those games including -175 Sunday, making this game a big line shift away from them. Teams that are at least +150 underdogs after being favored by at least -170 last game are +8.7% playing against.


The total in this game is just 7.5 and that sets up well for the home team, as well as the team having the NL CY Young contender on the hill. Home playoff teams in games where the total is no more than eight are +4.2% playing on.


The Nationals average total this season was 8.8 Home teams when the total is less than eight and the teams average total on the year is more than 8.5 are +2.3% playing on.


Max Scherzer goes having been a little shaky down the stretch with his results. But the stuff has absolutely been there as he has struck out 27 batters the past three outings. Milwaukees Brandon Woodruff has fanned just 10 his last three starts. Playoff starters who have at least 17 strikeouts over their past three starts, facing an opposing starter with less than 15 strikeouts over their last three starts are +13.6% playing on.


Woodruff likely wont be going too long in this game as a quasi-opener, but that will leave things to the Milwaukee bullpen that really struggled while getting swept by the Rockies. Teams that allowed at least three bullpen runs in each of their last three games are 1.8% playing against.


SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: WASHINGTON 6, Milwaukee 2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Merril

Over 7.5

[FATMANWINS]

allan desrosiers
10 Milwaukee +1.5

[FATMANWINS]

ats
4 nats over