Friday 10-11-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Marc Lawrence

Oct 11 '19, 10:00 PM in 1d
NCAA-F | Colorado vs Oregon
Play on: Oregon -20½ -110 at Mirage

Play - Oregon (Game 114).
Edges - Ducks: 6-1 ATS in this series … Buffaloes: 1-7 ATS in Game Six of the season … Look for a rejuvenated effort by the Ducks tonight. We recommend a 1* play on Oregon. Thank you and good luck as always

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NLCS - Nationals vs. Cardinals
Kevin Rogers

2019 Head-to-Head Matchups (St. Louis 5-2, Under 5-1-1)

St. Louis vs. Washington (Nationals Park)
April 29 – Cardinals 6, Nationals 3 (Over 8 ½)
April 30 – Cardinals 3, Nationals 2 (Under 9 ½)
May 1 – Cardinals 5, Nationals 1 (Under 7 ½)
May 2 – Nationals 2, Cardinals 1 (Under 8 ½)

Washington vs. St. Louis (Busch Stadium)
September 16 – Cardinals 4, Nationals 2 (Under 8)
September 17 – Nationals 6, Cardinals 2 (Push 8)
September 18 – Cardinals 5, Nationals 1 (Under 8)

The top two teams in the National League are watching the Championship Series from home as the Braves and Dodgers were each bounced at home in decisive Game 5’s of the Divisional Series. The two clubs still standing with the World Series as their next goal are the Cardinals and Nationals, who begin the NLCS at Busch Stadium.

Although Washington (93-69) finished with a better regular season record than St. Louis (91-71), the Cardinals have home-field advantage in the series due to them winning the National League Central title. The Nationals were four outs away from getting knocked out in the Wild Card round against the Brewers before Washington rallied for three runs in the eighth inning of a 4-3 shocker to advance to the NLDS.

The Nats took the two-time National League champion Dodgers to Game 5 and were on their way to elimination, but Washington pulled out another epic comeback. And they did this against three-time Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw as the Nationals hit back-to-back homers off the Dodgers’ ace in a rare relief appearance off the bats of Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto to tie the game at 3-3. Howie Kendrick’s grand slam in the 10th inning put Washington ahead for good and lifted the Nats to a 7-3 victory and the franchise’s first ever playoff series win, which includes their history as the Montreal Expos dating back to 1969.

The Cardinals last won a World Series title in 2011 against the Rangers, while St. Louis is in the postseason for the first time since 2015. The Redbirds went back and forth in the NLDS against the Braves as each team split the first two games at SunTrust Park and Games 3 and 4 at Busch Stadium. St. Louis exploded for 10 runs in the first inning of the winner-take-all Game 5 in Atlanta as the Cardinals crushed the Braves, 13-1 to make their first NLCS appearance since 2014.

The starting pitching advantage lies with the Nationals, who are led by Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. Washington used both its aces in relief appearances during crucial wins early in the postseason, as Scherzer shut down the Dodgers in Game 4 of the NLDS as a -120 favorite, 6-1. The three-time Cy Young winner rebounded from a tough outing against the Brewers in the Wild Card victory to allow four hits and one earned run in seven innings as Washington is 2-3 in his five postseason starts.

Strasburg picked up a no-decision in the Game 5 triumph at Los Angeles as he gave up three earned runs in six innings. The right-hander beat the Dodgers in Game 2 of the NLDS by striking out 10 batters in six innings of a 4-2 win as a +140 underdog. Since Strasburg threw 105 pitches on Wednesday, he will likely start again in Game 3 at Nationals Park on Monday night.

In two outings this season against the Cardinals, the Nationals went 1-1 with Strasburg starting, which included a 2-1 home victory on May 2 as he struck out nine batters in 6.2 innings of work. Scherzer, the St. Louis native, lost twice to his hometown squad in 2019 by exact 5-1 scores, as he was tagged for five runs in 6.2 innings on September 18 in spite of striking out 11 batters.

Veteran Anibal Sanchez will get the call to start the series opener for Washington as the hurler turned in a solid performance in Game 3 against the Dodgers. Sanchez yielded one run and four hits, while striking out nine batters in five innings, but the Dodgers exploded for seven runs in the sixth inning to erase a 2-1 deficit in a 10-4 runaway. The Nationals have won eight of Sanchez’s last 10 road starts since late May, including four victories as an underdog.

Adam Wainwright helped the Cardinals capture the 2006 championship as the team’s closer, but 13 years later, the right-hander will start the opener of the NLCS. Since July, St. Louis has won 13 of Wainwright’s past 17 outings, including a 5-1 home underdog triumph over Scherzer and the Nationals on September 18. In four of Wainwright’s previous five starts at Busch Stadium, he has not allowed a run, including in the 3-1 Game 3 loss to Atlanta in which the Braves scored all three of their runs in the ninth inning.

Jack Flaherty will never receive better run support than the 10-0 advantage taken by the Cardinals in the first inning of the Game 5 blowout in Atlanta. Flaherty helped the Cards clinch a spot in the NLCS by tossing six innings and striking out eight to turn in his 10th consecutive quality start since late August. St. Louis has compiled an 11-6 mark in his past 17 trips to the mound, including a 5-1 ledger at home, while allowing two earned runs or less 12 times during this span.

The Cardinals captured three of four meetings in D.C. back in late April/early May, including two wins as a road underdogs. St. Louis grabbed two of three matchups at Busch Stadium in mid-September, as five of the final six meetings finished UNDER the total. In their previous postseason get-together back in the 2012 NLDS, the Nationals were ready to close out the Cardinals in Game 5 by jumping out to a 6-0 lead. St. Louis kept chipping away and scored four runs in the ninth inning to stun Washington, 9-7, but the Cardinals were ousted by the eventual World Champion Giants in the NLCS.

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MLB
Weather Report

Friday, October 11

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MLB
Dunkel

Friday, October 11


Washington @ St. Louis

Game 901-902
October 11, 2019 @ 8:08 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
(Sanchez) 17.720
St. Louis
(Mikolas) 18.776
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
St. Louis
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
St. Louis
-130
8
Dunkel Pick:
St. Louis
(-130); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Friday, October 11

Nationals @ Cardinals
Sanchez is 3-0, 2.63 in his last four starts; he is 2-4, 3.44 in eight starts vs St Louis, and is 2-5, 2.98 in nine playoff games (8 playoff starts).

Mikolas is 1-1, 3.03 in his last six games (5 starts); he is 2-2, 4.85 in five games (4 starts) vs Washington, and is 1-0, 1.50 in two playoff games (1 start).

Washington won the NLDS in dramatic fashion Wednesday, they’re 12-2 in last 14 games overall, and are in NLCS for the time since 1981, when they were the Montreal Expos. Nationals are 2-5 vs St Louis this season, losing three of four games here.

St Louis is in the playoffs for first time in four years, after making it every year from 2011-15. Cardinals are in NLCS for first time since 2014.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Friday, October 11

Trend Report

St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
St. Louis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of St. Louis's last 9 games
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
St. Louis is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games at home
St. Louis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
St. Louis is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing Washington
St. Louis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
St. Louis is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Washington

Washington Nationals
Washington is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games
Washington is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games
Washington is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 games on the road
Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis
Washington is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing St. Louis
Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
Washington is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against St. Louis

[Can'tPickAWinner]

51ANAHEIM -52 COLUMBUS
COLUMBUS are 3-10 ATS (-8 Units) in home games after playing 2 straight games where 7 or more total goals were scored in the last 3 seasons.

53FLORIDA -54 BUFFALO
FLORIDA is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) after 2 straight games where both teams scored 3 goals or more in the last 3 seasons.

55NY ISLANDERS -56 CAROLINA
BARRY TROTZ is 13-5 ATS (7.5 Units) in road games vs. division opponents (Coach of NY ISLANDERS)

55NY ISLANDERS -56 CAROLINA
NY ISLANDERS are 13-5 ATS (7.5 Units) in road games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Friday, October 11

Trend Report

Buffalo Sabres
Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Buffalo is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Buffalo is 6-16 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games
Buffalo is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Florida
Buffalo is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing Florida
Buffalo is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Florida
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing at home against Florida

Florida Panthers
Florida is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Florida's last 13 games
Florida is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Florida is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Florida's last 6 games on the road
Florida is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Buffalo
Florida is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Buffalo
Florida is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Florida's last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo

Columbus Blue Jackets
Columbus is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Columbus is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games
Columbus is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Columbus's last 9 games
Columbus is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Anaheim
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Columbus's last 6 games when playing Anaheim
Columbus is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Anaheim
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Columbus's last 6 games when playing at home against Anaheim

Anaheim Ducks
Anaheim is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Anaheim is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Anaheim's last 5 games
Anaheim is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Anaheim is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Anaheim is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Anaheim's last 7 games on the road
Anaheim is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Columbus
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Anaheim's last 6 games when playing Columbus
Anaheim is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Columbus
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Anaheim's last 6 games when playing on the road against Columbus

Carolina Hurricanes
Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Carolina's last 10 games
Carolina is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 7 games at home
Carolina is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Islanders
Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Islanders

New York Islanders
NY Islanders is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
NY Islanders is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 18 of NY Islanders's last 25 games
NY Islanders is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of NY Islanders's last 22 games on the road
NY Islanders is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
NY Islanders is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina

[Can'tPickAWinner]

107SYRACUSE -108 NC STATE
NC STATE is 34-18 ATS (14.2 Units) after 2 straight unders since 1992.

109VIRGINIA -110 MIAMI
MIAMI is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 6 or more since 1992.

111COLORADO ST -112 NEW MEXICO
COLORADO ST is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return in the last 3 seasons.

113COLORADO -114 OREGON
COLORADO is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games in the last 3 seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Friday, October 11

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VIRGINIA (4 - 1) at MIAMI (2 - 3) - 10/11/2019, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
VIRGINIA is 2-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-1 straight up against VIRGINIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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COLORADO ST (1 - 5) at NEW MEXICO (2 - 3) - 10/11/2019, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW MEXICO is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW MEXICO is 1-1 against the spread versus COLORADO ST over the last 3 seasons
COLORADO ST is 2-0 straight up against NEW MEXICO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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COLORADO (3 - 2) at OREGON (4 - 1) - 10/11/2019, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
COLORADO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
COLORADO is 39-71 ATS (-39.1 Units) in October games since 1992.
COLORADO is 45-77 ATS (-39.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 7

Friday’s games
Underdogs are 4-2-1 ATS in last seven Virginia-Miami games; Cavaliers lost their last three trips to South Beach, by 16-6-19 points. Virginia is 3-1 vs I-A teams but ran ball for total of only 73 yards in last two games- the team that led at halftime lost all four games. Cavaliers lost last game 35-20 at Notre Dame; under Mendenhall, they’re 10-9 ATS on the road. Miami is 1-3 vs I-A clubs, with all four games decided by 7 or fewer points. ‘canes lost 42-35 to Va Tech LW after they trailed 28-0 just before halftime; their only I-A win was 17-12 over Central Michigan.

Colorado State won its last nine games with New Mexico (7-2 ATS); Rams won their last four trips to Albuquerque, by 3-7-24-4 points, but State is 0-5 vs I-A teams this year, allowing an average of 41.2 ppg; Rams are 9-5 ATS in their last 14 games as road favorites. State was held to 296/235 TY in their last two games. Lobos lost three of four I-A games; they’ve given up 464+ TY in every game this year, even the 39-31 win over a I-AA team. New Mexico is 6-4 ATS in its last ten games as a home underdog.

Colorado lost six of last seven games with Oregon; teams haven’t met since ’16. Favorites are 5-1 ATS in last six series games, but Buffs (+10.5) won their last visit to Eugene, 41-38. Colorado is 3-2 despite allowing 30+ points in all five games; they allowed 444+ TY in all five games. Buffs are 11-7-1 ATS in their last 19 games as road underdogs. Oregon won its last four games after a 27-21 loss to Auburn, allowing 7 or fewer points in all four games; Ducks are 10-14 ATS in their last 24 games as a home favorite. Pac-12 home favorites are 3-7 ATS so far this season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 7

Friday, October 11

Virginia @ Miami-FL

Game 109-110
October 11, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Virginia
91.342
Miami-FL
84.634
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Virginia
by 6 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami-FL
by 2
45
Dunkel Pick:
Virginia
(+2); Under

Colorado State @ New Mexico

Game 111-112
October 11, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Colorado State
69.322
New Mexico
68.504
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Colorado State
by 1
70
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Colorado State
by 4
66 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Mexico
(+4); Over

Colorado @ Oregon

Game 113-114
October 11, 2019 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Colorado
86.115
Oregon
103.633
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oregon
by 17 1/2
62
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oregon
by 20 1/2
57 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Colorado
(+20 1/2); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 7
Bruce Marshall

Friday, Oct. 11

Matchup Skinny
Edge

VIRGINIA at MIAMI-FLA...Cavs have now dropped 4 straight vs. line. Mendenhall has covered last two vs. Canes and Hoos 5-2 vs. spread last 7 away from Charlottesville. Miami 2-7 vs points last 9 ACC games, and 1-7 vs. spread last eight as host vs. FBS-level foes.
Virginia, based on team trends.


COLORADO STATE at NEW MEXICO...Bob Davie is 0-7 SU (1-6 vs. line) with Lobos against CSU since he arrived in 2012. Lobos 1-9 vs. spread last ten at Albuquerque.
Colorado State, based on series and team trends.


COLORADO at OREGON...Mel Tucker now 2-0 as dog with Buffs, who were just 3-9-1 getting points the past two seasons. Cristobal just 7-12 vs. spread with Ducks (counts LV Bowl 2017) since taking over (6-7 as chalk). Webfoots only 4-6 vs. spread at Eugene for Cristobal.
Colorado, based on team trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Virginia at Miami, Fl.
Matt Blunt

No. 20 Virginia at Miami, Fl.
Venue/Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, Fl.
Time/TV: Friday, Oct. 11 (ESPN, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Line: Miami -2, Total 44

Recent Meetings:

2018: Virginia (+7) vs. Miami, Fl. 13, Under 46.5
2017: Miami, Fl. (-19.5) 44 vs. Virginia 28, Over 49
2016: Miami, Fl. (-9.5) 34 at Virginia, Under 54.5

Two ranked teams are in action on Friday night, but it's the one that's out on the road that I'm looking at today.

Virginia – fresh off their first loss of the year two weeks ago to Notre Dame – head down to Miami to take on a Hurricanes team that's seemingly already underperformed relative the lofty goals the Hurricanes and their fanbase put on the team every year. At 2-3 SU, Miami fans probably figured their team's record would look much better at this point of the year, but that's clearly not the case. Sometimes a football team just isn't as good as many expected them to be, for a myriad of reasons, and that's the question many handicappers are asking themselves about the Miami Hurricanes this week.

Miami did open as a small favorite for this game and saw some early support to bump the spread up a touch. But after narrowly escaping with a win against Central Michigan as 30-point favorites two games ago, Miami lost again – after having two weeks to prepare – as big favorites, this time laying 14 points to Virginia Tech.

So, is Miami being the favorite and getting some early support warranted? Or will this Hurricanes team that's already 0-3 ATS as favorites against FBS competition be a money burner again?

CFB Odds: Virginia vs Miami (-2.5); Total set at 44

Now that conference play is in full swing across the country, I know there will be talk of games like this each week where we've got an unranked squad like Miami laying points to a ranked team. Generally speaking, there is a theory that laying the points in those situations turns out better then not, but that's the problem with talking in generalities when dealing with specifics.

The specifics for this game is that Miami is a struggling team with much less rest, and probably getting considered more for the program's historical reputation then what they've shown on the football field thus far. The Hurricanes hung tough with Florida on opening day back in late-August, but since then it's really been nothing but downhill for this team against the number. Having played last Saturday and now turning around to play on a Friday – against a team that had last week off – isn't a brutal scheduling spot, but it's not great either.

The time off for Virginia likely negates any sort of hangover effect the Cavaliers may have after suffering their first loss of the year, and it probably humbled them to a degree. Working that much harder during two weeks of practice is probably not a bad thing for a Virginia team that's still ranked in the polls and looking to remain there. And given what film study has shown them the past two weeks, chances are they'll have an edge mentally as well for this game.

Taking the line and the total together as one suggests that points will be at a premium in this game, and that we probably won't get anyone coming back from anything like an early two-TD deficit. Given that Virginia's defense holds edges in nearly every category other then rush yards allowed per attempt and per game, and Miami has allowed at least 24 points to all three Power 5 programs they've faced this season, I believe you've got to favor Virginia's prospects offensively in this game as well.

Rest-wise things line up on Virginia's side, record-wise things line up Virginia's way, and the Cavaliers hold the edge in the majority of statistical categories on both sides of the ball as well. Add it all up and then throw in Miami's underperforming nature this year, and you get a game where it may not be one of those “wrong team is favored” contests per se, but the favorite sure has a lot working against them to get a W.

With the underdog 13-2 ATS in the last 15 meetings between these two games – including 8-1 ATS the last nine – and a perfect 4-0 ATS when the line has been single digits in that span, give me the Cavaliers in this game on Friday night.